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BALL

Ball State 20 at Northern Illinois 17

NIU
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 7, 2023 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-4.7NIU 62.2%Jackson Courville 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 7 · Q2 1:04
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:04 · Jackson Courville 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorTime remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 75Pregame prior+15.3Home team on offense−5.4Score differential−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Garbage-time factor−1.0Time remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:48: Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK) — NIU win probability +8.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Kanon Woodill 27 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +7.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:00: Trayvon Rudolph run for 35 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK) — NIU win probability +21.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:44: Kiael Kelly pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK) — BALL win probability +36.5 pts (now 53%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Jackson Courville 36 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +40.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 7:37BALL 4th & 8 at NIU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.0%
    49% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:33NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:50BALL 4th & 9 at NIU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    32.7%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:08NIU 4th & 1 at BALL 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.8%−1.7
    68% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−6.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:58BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:22NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:04BALL 4th & 2 at NIU 19, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.2%−0.4
    77% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−5.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00NIU 4th & 10 at BALL 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−8.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:49NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:34BALL 4th & 10 at NIU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    37.8%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:07NIU 4th & 11 at NIU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−3.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:55BALL 4th & 1 at NIU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%−5.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−7.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:57BALL 4th & 13 at NIU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−4.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−13.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:00BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:49BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:48NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:00NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:44BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:5622% → 24%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
78.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 21 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
78.1%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 10 yds to the NIU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
77.9%
Kiael Kelly run for 6 yds to the NIU 28Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+21
77.6%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 21 yds to the NIU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
77.4%
Kiael Kelly run for 1 yd to the NIU 8Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
77.2%
Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the NIU 6Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
75.9%
Kiael Kelly run for 6 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:0276% → 75%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
76.0%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NIU 16Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+4
75.7%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the NIU 20Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+20
75.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 20 yds to the NIU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
75.2%
Rocky Lombardi run for 5 yds to the NIU 35 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, recovered by BALL Jordan Riley (08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Lombardi,Rocky rush middle for 5 yards loss to the NIU35 fumbled by Lombardi,Rocky at NIU35 recovered by BSU Riley,Jordan at NIU35, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3MISSED FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4526% → 26%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
74.1%
Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the NIU 33Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
73.7%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Malcolm GillieSimilar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
73.7%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Marquez CooperSimilar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+50
74.0%
Jackson Courville 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5974% → 73%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
74.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Davis PattersonSimilar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
74.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Antario Brown for 3 yds to the NIU 36Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
73.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Davis PattersonSimilar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
73.0%
Tom Foley punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:3527% → 30%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
72.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the BALL 33Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+1
72.3%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd to the BALL 34Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+5
71.9%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 5 yds to the BALL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
71.3%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 14 yds to the NIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
70.8%
Vaughn Pemberton run for no gain to the NIU 47Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
70.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the NIU 46Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
69.8%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Vaughn PembertonSimilar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
70.2%
Lucas Borrow punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6TD
15 plays · 98 yds · 6:5570% → 75%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
69.7%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NIU 5Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+4
69.0%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the NIU 9Similar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+8
68.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 8 yds to the NIU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+21
68.3%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 21 yds to the NIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
68.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 18 yds to the BALL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
69.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cam Thompson for 4 yds to the BALL 40Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+7
68.6%
Antario Brown run for 7 yds to the BALL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
68.7%
Antario Brown run for 7 yds to the BALL 26Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 3
OPP 26
0
68.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+2
67.6%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the BALL 24Similar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+20
66.3%
Rocky Lombardi run for 20 yds to the BALL 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
67.3%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the BALL 4Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
75.4%
Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:2628% → 30%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+10
71.9%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Nick Presley for 10 yds to the BALL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
71.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the BALL 20Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+5
71.1%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 5 yds to the BALL 25Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+10
71.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 10 yds to the BALL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
69.9%
PENALTY BSU False Start 5 yards from BSU35 to BSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+4
69.4%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 4 yds to the BALL 34Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+1
69.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the BALL 35Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+2
69.5%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 2 yds to the BALL 37Similar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
69.7%
Lucas Borrow punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NIU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:3672% → 71%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
72.4%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 13 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
73.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Grayson BarnesSimilar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
73.5%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 49Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
72.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Davis PattersonSimilar
Q2 4:22
4TH & 9
OWN 49
+11
71.1%
Tom Foley punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BALL 25 , Qian Magwood returns for 11 yds to the BALL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 3:1232% → 38%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the BALL 27Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
67.6%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qian MagwoodSimilar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+32
68.6%
Kiael Kelly run for 32 yds to the NIU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
64.5%
Kiael Kelly run for 4 yds to the NIU 37Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+5
63.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the NIU 32Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+5
63.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the NIU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
61.6%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
62.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the NIU 31Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 14
OPP 31
+12
67.6%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 12 yds to the NIU 19Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+37
62.2%
Jackson Courville 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 0:5362% → 71%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
62.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 14 yds to the NIU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
62.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Gavin Williams for 4 yds to the NIU 38Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
64.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+15
62.3%
Gavin Williams run for 15 yds to the BALL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
65.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+20
64.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 20 yds to the BALL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
66.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+17
66.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 17 yds to the BALL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
66.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
66.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Gavin WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
64.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Grayson BarnesSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
71.3%
Kanon Woodill 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:0470% → 68%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
69.7%
Antario Brown run for 9 yds to the NIU 34Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
71.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Gavin Williams for 11 yds to the NIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
71.5%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NIU 47Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
71.2%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 48Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
69.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
67.9%
Tom Foley punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BALL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 5:0735% → 38%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the BALL 30Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
63.6%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 3 yds to the BALL 33Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
63.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the BALL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
62.8%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 14 yds to the NIU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
60.0%
Kiael Kelly run for 5 yds to the NIU 44Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+5
59.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the NIU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
59.3%
Vaughn Pemberton run for no gain to the NIU 39Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
59.1%
Kiael Kelly run for no gain to the NIU 39Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
59.8%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Marquez CooperSimilar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
62.4%
Ball State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Nick Munson) declinedSimilar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
62.3%
Lucas Borrow punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:2365% → 60%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
64.9%
Antario Brown run for 7 yds to the NIU 16Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 3
OWN 16
-8
65.6%
PENALTY NIU Personal Foul 8 yards from NIU16 to NIU08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+3
64.5%
Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the NIU 11Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 8
OWN 11
-3
61.3%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Mikhari Sibblis for a loss of 3 yards to the NIU 8Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 11
OWN 8
0
59.5%
Tom Foley punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14MISSED FG
12 plays · 24 yds · 5:0244% → 41%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
56.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the NIU 42Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
56.0%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the NIU 42Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+7
55.9%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Vaughn Pemberton for 7 yds to the NIU 35Similar
Q3 2:55
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+1
57.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the NIU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
53.0%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Ahmad EdwardsSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
53.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the NIU 31Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+14
54.5%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 14 yds to the NIU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
51.2%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qian MagwoodSimilar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
51.3%
Kiael Kelly run for 1 yd to the NIU 18Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+2
53.8%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 2 yds to the NIU 20Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+37
59.1%
Jackson Courville 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:4966% → 90%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
66.1%
Antario Brown run for 6 yds to the NIU 26Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+12
65.9%
Antario Brown run for 12 yds to the NIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
66.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Brock Lampe for 7 yds to the NIU 45Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+3
68.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 3 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
68.4%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NIU 48Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
67.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 3 yds to the NIU 45Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+15
62.7%
(11:00) Shotgun Lombardi,Rocky pass incomplete deep right to Pardridge,Dane PENALTY BSU Pass Interference (Riley,Jordan) 15 yards from NIU45 to BSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
68.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Antario Brown for 5 yds to the BALL 35Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+35
90.4%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 35 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4814% → 12%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
85.7%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 11 yds to the BALL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the BALL 24Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
86.2%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 5 yds to the BALL 29Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
86.2%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qian MagwoodSimilar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
88.2%
Lucas Borrow punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5991% → 94%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
90.8%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NIU 29Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
93.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q4 7:06
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+5
93.5%
PENALTY BSU Offside (Houston,Sidney) 5 yards from NIU29 to NIU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+2
93.7%
Rocky Lombardi run for 2 yds to the NIU 32 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, recovered by BALL Mikhari Sibblis (07:06) Shotgun Lombardi,Rocky rush middle for 2 yards loss to the NIU32 fumbled by Lombardi,Rocky at NIU30 recovered by BSU Sibblis,Mikhari at NIU32, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18TD
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:0916% → 53%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
84.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 10 yds to the NIU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
84.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the NIU 20Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
84.3%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+10
86.2%
(05:35) Shotgun Kelly,Kiael rush middle for 3 yards loss to the NIU23 (Thomas,Raishein) PENALTY NIU Tripping (Thomas,Raishein) 10 yards from NIU20 to NIU10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
84.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the NIU 6Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
83.8%
Kiael Kelly run for no gain to the NIU 6Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
47.3%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:1654% → 58%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
54.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Brock Lampe for 10 yds to the NIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
56.5%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NIU 41Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
57.8%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Tyler Potts for 0 yards to the NIU 41 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, recovered by BALL Kyron Mims , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20FG
13 plays · 22 yds · 2:0753% → 97%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
46.6%
Kiael Kelly run for 5 yds to the NIU 36Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+1
47.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the NIU 37Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+7
48.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds to the NIU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
44.8%
Kiael Kelly run for 6 yds to the NIU 24Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 4
OPP 24
0
44.0%
Kiael Kelly run for no gain to the NIU 24Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+5
46.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the NIU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
42.4%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the NIU 19Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+36
3.3%
Jackson Courville 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Jackson Courville 36 yd FG GOOD
-40
TD · Q4 3:44
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)
-36.5
TD · Q4 10:00
Trayvon Rudolph run for 35 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)
+21.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com