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BUF

Buffalo 13 at Toledo 31

TOL
2023 · Week 10 · Oct 31, 2023 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the BUFF 12 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Pregame prior+9.6Home team on offense+25.2Score differential+12.0Garbage-time factor+11.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:12: Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 26 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK) — TOL win probability +2.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:14: Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUFF 43 — TOL win probability +2.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:00: Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the TOL 46 — TOL win probability +4.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:10: Jacquez Stuart run for 12 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK) — TOL win probability +3.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:12: Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — BUF win probability +3.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 12:42BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:04BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:16TOL 4th & 10 at BUF 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    82.7%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:35BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:21TOL 4th & 8 at BUF 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    82.6%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:16BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:33BUF 4th & 1 at TOL 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−2.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:10TOL 4th & 1 at midfield, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.6%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:24BUF 4th & 10 at TOL 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:54TOL 4th & 7 at BUF 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−2.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:26BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.1%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:14TOL 4th & 17 at BUF 38, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    93.0%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:16BUF 4th & 14 at BUF 19, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:02BUF 4th & 1 at TOL 16, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.7
    81% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−2.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:44BUF 4th & 7 at TOL 7, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−1.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00TOL 4th & 1 at BUF 21, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.8%−0.7
    74% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−3.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:08BUF 4th & 10 at TOL 45, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    2.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:25BUF 4th & 6 at TOL 6, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 12:06TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:46BUF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:12TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:10TOL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:12BUF Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0016% → 16%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
84.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the BUFF 43Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
84.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 4 yds to the BUFF 47Similar
Q1 14:42
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-2
84.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUFF 45Similar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
83.9%
Anthony Venneri punt for 34 yds, downed at the TOL 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 0:3684% → 85%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
84.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 8 yds to the TOL 29Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+71
84.5%
Peny Boone run for 71 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5716% → 15%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
84.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the BUFF 31Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
84.4%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
84.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:04
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
84.6%
Anthony Venneri punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:5285% → 85%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
84.6%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the TOL 26Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-47
84.8%
Toledo Penalty, Personal Foul (Vinny Sciury) to the TOL 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:2616% → 17%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
84.3%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the TOL 9Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+5
84.3%
Victor Snow run for 5 yds to the TOL 4Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
83.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:2484% → 83%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
83.7%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 29Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+15
83.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 15 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
83.9%
Peny Boone run for 7 yds to the BUFF 49Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-10
84.0%
BOONE, Peny rush to the right for a gain of 12 yards to the BUF37 (ANDREESSEN, Joe). PENALTY TOL Holding on LONG, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the BUF49 to the TOL41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+18
83.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 18 yds to the BUFF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
84.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the BUFF 41Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
84.0%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
83.8%
Dequan Finn run for no gain to the BUFF 41Similar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
83.3%
Emilio Duran punt for 40 yds, downed at the BUFF 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4117% → 16%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
83.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the BUFF 4Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 7
OWN 4
-1
83.4%
Jacqez Barksdale run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUFF 3Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
83.6%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
83.7%
Anthony Venneri punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1484% → 83%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
83.9%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the BUFF 38Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
83.9%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the BUFF 36Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
83.3%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
82.9%
Emilio Duran punt for 29 yds, downed at the BUFF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0517% → 17%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
82.8%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the BUFF 11Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 6
OWN 11
0
82.8%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 6
OWN 11
0
83.1%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 6
OWN 11
0
83.1%
Anthony Venneri punt for 42 yds, downed at the TOL 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:0483% → 86%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
83.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the TOL 47Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
83.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
50
+27
83.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 27 yds to the BUFF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
83.5%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-3
83.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 3 yards to the BUFF 26Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+26
86.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 26 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 35 yds · 3:3315% → 15%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
85.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jacqez Barksdale for 4 yds to the BUFF 28Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+1
84.9%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the BUFF 29Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+21
85.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
50
+5
84.4%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
84.3%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 4 yds to the TOL 41Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
84.2%
Mike Washington run for no gain to the TOL 41Similar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
84.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the TOL 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2387% → 87%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
87.1%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-10
86.9%
BOONE, Peny rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the TOL43 (HARRIS, Demetrius;GRANT, Devin). PENALTY TOL Holding on ROSI, Nick enforced 10 yards from the TOL41 to the TOL31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 20
OWN 31
+17
86.4%
Peny Boone run for 17 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
86.7%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:10
4TH & 1
50
0
86.5%
Dequan Finn run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13MISSED FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:4615% → 14%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
50
+8
84.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 8 yds to the TOL 42Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+5
84.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
84.7%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 4 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+15
84.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 15 yds to the TOL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
84.1%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
84.3%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
84.8%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
85.8%
Alex McNulty 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14FUMBLE
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
86.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 10 yds Peny Boone fumbled, recovered by BUFF Devin Grant for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, Personal Foul (Devin Grant) to the TOL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:5915% → 15%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
85.0%
Cole Snyder run for 7 yds to the TOL 38Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 3
OPP 38
0
84.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the TOL 38Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+6
84.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the TOL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
84.6%
Cole Snyder pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16FG
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:2087% → 92%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
87.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUFF 43Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+19
88.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 19 yds to the BUFF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
88.7%
FINN, Dequan pass to the left complete for 13 yards to STUART, Jacquez caught at the BUF33 and advanced to the BUF11 (GRANT, Devin). PENALTY TOL Holding on ROGERS, Devan enforced 10 yards from the BUF24 to the BUF34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+3
88.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the BUFF 31Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 17
OPP 31
+1
88.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the BUFF 30Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 16
OPP 30
+9
89.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 9 yds to the BUFF 21Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+39
92.3%
Luke Pawlak 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17INT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:3510% → 13%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
89.9%
Cole Snyder run for 8 yds to the BUFF 42Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+6
89.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 6 yds to the BUFF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
89.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 7 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
87.3%
Cole Snyder pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
92.1%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the TOL 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:289% → 9%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
90.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the BUFF 27Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+10
90.3%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 10 yds to the BUFF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
90.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the BUFF 41Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
90.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the BUFF 44Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
89.9%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+1
91.3%
Tadd Barr run for 1 yd to the BUFF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:1292% → 93%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
92.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 14 yds to the BUFF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
92.4%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 3 yards to the BUFF 34Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+1
92.2%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the BUFF 33Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 12
OPP 33
0
92.0%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 12
OPP 33
-5
91.4%
Toledo Penalty, Delay Of Game (Emilio Duran) to the BUFF 38Similar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 17
OPP 38
0
92.9%
punt for 26 yds, downed at the BUFF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:588% → 6%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
92.2%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the BUFF 13Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+10
92.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 10 yds to the BUFF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
92.1%
Victor Snow run for no gain to the BUFF 23Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-4
92.3%
Cole Snyder sacked by Martez Poynter for a loss of 4 yards to the BUFF 19Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 14
OWN 19
0
92.4%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 14
OWN 19
0
93.6%
punt blocked by Quinyon Mitchell blocked by Quinyon Mitchell Punt by VENNERI, Anthony at the BUF19 is blocked by MITCHELL, Quinyon, recovered by TOL HOOK, Maxen at the BUF28, returned 3 yards to the BUF25 (COOK, Ron), clock 07:16. PENALTY BUF Targeting on MURDOCK, Red enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards after the change of possession from the end of the play at the BUF25 to the BUF13. , returns for no gain to the BUFF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
97.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for 12 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 72 yds · 5:183% → 2%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
97.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 16 yds to the BUFF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
96.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUFF 39Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+36
96.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 36 yds to the TOL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
96.4%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the TOL 28Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 13
OPP 28
-1
96.6%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 29Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+13
96.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 13 yds to the TOL 16Similar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+6
96.7%
Cole Snyder run for 6 yds to the TOL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
96.5%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the TOL 7Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.7%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
0
98.2%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:4998% → 98%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
98.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the TOL 8Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 9
OWN 8
-5
98.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 3 Jacquez Stuart fumbled, recovered by BUFF Daymond Williams [NHSG] STUART, Jacquez rush up the middle for a loss of 5 yards, STUART, Jacquez fumbled at TOL8 forced by MICHEL, Max, recovered by BUF WILLIAMS, Daymond at the TOL3, returned 0 yards to the TOL3, End of Play, clock 00:55.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:432% → 5%
Q3 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.0%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the TOL 1Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.9%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26FUMBLE
10 plays · 72 yds · 5:1797% → 98%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
96.8%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the TOL 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+14
96.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 14 yds to the TOL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
97.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
96.9%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the TOL 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+25
96.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 25 yds to the BUFF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
97.0%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the BUFF 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+4
97.0%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the BUFF 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+2
96.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the BUFF 21Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+9
96.6%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the BUFF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
97.9%
Peny Boone run for 11 yds to the BUFF 1 Peny Boone fumbled, recovered by BUFF Devin Grant [NHSG] BOONE, Peny rush up the middle for a gain of 11 yards, BOONE, Peny fumbled at BUF6 forced by MICHEL, Max, recovered by BUF GRANT, Devin at the BUF1, returned 0 yards to the BUF1, End of Play, clock 09:43.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27DOWNS
11 plays · 54 yds · 2:353% → 3%
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
97.2%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
97.3%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+32
97.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 32 yds to the BUFF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
96.9%
Cole Snyder run for 7 yds to the BUFF 40Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+4
96.9%
Cole Snyder run for 4 yds to the BUFF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
96.9%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
96.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 11 yds to the TOL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
96.8%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
97.1%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
97.2%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:08
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
97.3%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28PUNT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
98.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the TOL 47Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
98.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the TOL 48Similar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
98.1%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 29DOWNS
15 plays · 45 yds · 4:052% → 3%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
98.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the BUFF 49Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
98.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 9 yds to the TOL 42Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+4
97.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
97.9%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
97.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 6 yds to the TOL 32Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+12
97.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 12 yds to the TOL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
97.2%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
97.3%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+5
97.6%
QB Keeper SNYDER, Cole rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the TOL16 (HOOK, Maxen). PENALTY TOL Offsides on HOLT, Deshawn enforced 5 yards from the TOL20 to the TOL15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+7
97.4%
Cole Snyder run for 7 yds to the TOL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.2%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.2%
Cole Snyder run for no gain to the TOL 8Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
97.4%
Cole Snyder run for 2 yds to the TOL 6Similar
Q4 1:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · 10 yds · 1:2599% → 99%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+13
98.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 13 yds to the TOL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
98.9%
[NHSG] Kneel down by FINN, Dequan at TOL16 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:00
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the TOL 46
+4.9
TD · Q3 7:10
Jacquez Stuart run for 12 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)
+3.5
TD · Q3 0:12
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-3.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com