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NIU

Northern Illinois 31 at Central Michigan 37

CMU
2023 · Week 10 · Oct 31, 2023 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:25 · Jake Walrath punt for 36 yds , Dane Pardridge returns for 4 yds to the NIU 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTimeout advantage
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 131Home team on offense+25.2Score differential+11.2Pregame prior−3.0Garbage-time factor+10.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+15.7Timeout advantage−4.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:32: Jase Bauer pass complete to Mitchel Collier for 20 yds for a TD — CMU win probability +17.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:28: Antario Brown 61 Yd Run (Rocky Lombardi Pass to Grayson Barnes for Two-Point Conversion) — NIU win probability +16.1 pts (now 30%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:53: Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 22 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK) — NIU win probability +16.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:27: Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 6 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK) — NIU win probability +27.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:27: Timeout Central Michigan, clock 03:27 — CMU win probability +19.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q4 0:01CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−3.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:38NIU 4th & 4 at CMU 31, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.6%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:07CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:52NIU 4th & 11 at CMU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:11CMU 4th & 6 at NIU 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:07NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:48NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.9%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:34NIU 4th & 4 at CMU 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    16.0%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:11NIU 4th & 9 at CMU 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−5.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:29NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 23, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−1.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:43CMU 4th & 5 at NIU 17, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−3.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:25CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 26, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:25CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 26, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:50NIU 4th & 14 at CMU 30, down 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%−1.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:23CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 38, up 13
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:08NIU 4th & 1 at CMU 33, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−1.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:43CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 30, up 6
    Close callPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 12:24CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:04CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:32CMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:28NIU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    23.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:29CMU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    87.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:32CMU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:56NIU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:53NIU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:27NIU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.9%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q4 0:01
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
56.8%
Jake Walrath punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:2436% → 38%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
35.7%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Javorian WimberlySimilar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+29
35.7%
Jase Bauer run for 29 yds to the NIU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
36.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Chris Parker for 14 yds to the NIU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
36.2%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the NIU 22Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+10
36.5%
Marion Lukes run for 10 yds to the NIU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
36.7%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the NIU 9Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
37.9%
Jase Bauer run for 9 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3MISSED FG
7 plays · 53 yds · 3:3262% → 60%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+16
37.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 16 yds to the NIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
38.1%
Antario Brown run for 11 yds to the NIU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
38.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 20 yds to the CMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
38.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Grayson BarnesSimilar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
38.8%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the CMU 34Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+3
39.4%
Gavin Williams run for 3 yds to the CMU 31Similar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+48
40.1%
Kanon Woodill 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:2341% → 42%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
40.7%
Jase Bauer run for 4 yds to the CMU 35Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
41.1%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the CMU 39Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+3
41.5%
Jase Bauer run for 3 yds to the CMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
42.3%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Chris ParkerSimilar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
42.1%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Jacob KaminskiSimilar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+5
42.0%
Jase Bauer run for 5 yds to the CMU 47Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
42.3%
Jake Walrath punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NIU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:1058% → 57%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
42.3%
Antario Brown run for 5 yds to the NIU 25Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
42.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Davis Patterson for 7 yds to the NIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+26
43.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 11 yds to the CMU 43 for a 1ST down Central Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (Da'Raun McKinney) to the CMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
42.5%
Antario Brown run for 5 yds to the CMU 37Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+14
42.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 14 yds to the CMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
42.5%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the CMU 24Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
42.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Gavin Williams for no gain to the CMU 24Similar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 11
OPP 24
0
44.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Davis PattersonSimilar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+40
43.4%
Kanon Woodill 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:2144% → 49%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
43.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Javorian Wimberly for 2 yds to the CMU 44Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+18
44.1%
Jase Bauer run for 18 yds to the NIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
45.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 17 yds to the NIU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
45.8%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt IIISimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
45.9%
Jase Bauer run for 4 yds to the NIU 17Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
45.7%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Sam HicksSimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+35
48.6%
Tristan Mattson 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5752% → 50%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.2%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NIU 26Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
49.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Davis PattersonSimilar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
49.8%
Tom Foley punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:5750% → 63%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
49.5%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the CMU 37Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+12
50.7%
Marion Lukes run for 12 yds to the CMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
52.0%
(11:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Bauer,Jase rush left for 9 yards gain to the NIU42 (Prophete,Jashon), out of bounds PENALTY CMU Holding (Collier,Mitchel) 10 yards from CMU49 to CMU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+9
51.4%
Jase Bauer pass complete to B.J. Harris for 9 yds to the CMU 48Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+6
52.1%
Jase Bauer run for 6 yds to the NIU 46Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+46
62.5%
Marion Lukes run for 46 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1241% → 39%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
58.7%
Antario Brown run for 5 yds to the NIU 40Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
59.2%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NIU 40Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
61.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 4 yds to the NIU 44Similar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
61.2%
Rocky Lombardi run for no gain to the NIU 44 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, recovered by CMU Jacques Bristol (07:50) No Huddle Lombardi,Rocky rush middle for 0 yards to the NIU44 fumbled by Lombardi,Rocky at NIU44 recovered by CMU Bristol,Jacques at NIU44, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 1:0963% → 82%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
63.4%
Marion Lukes run for 5 yds to the NIU 39Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+19
64.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 19 yds to the NIU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
81.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Mitchel Collier for 20 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11MISSED FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 5:1623% → 17%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.0%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NIU 25Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
78.3%
(05:49) Lombardi,Rocky rush middle for 25 yards loss to the NIU00 fumbled by Lombardi,Rocky at NIU25 recovered by CMU Lee,Quindario at NIU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 05:44 PENALTY CMU Illegal Bat (Whiteside,Justin) 10 yards from NIU25 to NIU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+33
77.3%
Rocky Lombardi run for 33 yds to the CMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
76.4%
(05:01) Lombardi,Rocky pass complete short middle to Lampe,Brock for 14 yards to the CMU18 (Spann,Caleb), out of bounds PENALTY NIU Holding (Ozoh,Izuchukwu) 10 yards from CMU32 to CMU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 20
OPP 42
0
79.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for no gain to the CMU 42Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 20
OPP 42
+11
80.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 11 yds to the CMU 31Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+5
80.8%
PENALTY CMU Offside (Lee,Quindario) 5 yards from CMU31 to CMU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
80.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+10
81.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 10 yds to the CMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
80.0%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the CMU 15Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
80.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
82.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Gavin WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+31
82.8%
Kanon Woodill 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:0688% → 89%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.0%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Marion LukesSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+19
88.0%
Marion Lukes run for 19 yds to the CMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
88.8%
Marion Lukes run for 8 yds to the CMU 47Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+1
89.1%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the CMU 48Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+1
88.9%
Sam Hicks run for 1 yd to the CMU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2614% → 30%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.6%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NIU 27Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
86.1%
Antario Brown run for 12 yds to the NIU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
70.0%
Antario Brown 61 Yd Run (Rocky Lombardi Pass to Grayson Barnes for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:4773% → 88%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
72.7%
Marion Lukes run for 18 yds to the CMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
75.1%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 13 yds to the NIU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
75.5%
Marion Lukes run for 7 yds to the NIU 32Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+4
76.2%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the NIU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
76.8%
Jase Bauer run for 12 yds to the NIU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
88.2%
Sam Hicks run for 16 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4817% → 16%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
82.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Brock LampeSimilar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
83.2%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the NIU 23Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
83.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:29
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
84.0%
Tom Foley punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NIU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:4691% → 98%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
91.4%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Chris Parker for 17 yds to the NIU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
91.7%
B.J. Harris run for 3 yds to the NIU 27Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+4
91.6%
B.J. Harris run for 4 yds to the NIU 23Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+15
91.8%
Jase Bauer run for 7 yds to the NIU 16 for a 1ST down Northern Illinois Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Jordan Hansen) to the NIU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
92.3%
Northern Illinois Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Tyler Jackson) to the NIU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
92.0%
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd to the NIU 1Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.0%
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:292% → 8%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
97.8%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NIU 33Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-5
97.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lombardi,Rocky pass incomplete short right to Patterson,Davis PENALTY NIU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Potter,Nolan) 5 yards from NIU33 to NIU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+72
92.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 72 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18MISSED FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 4:0196% → 98%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
95.9%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the CMU 36Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
95.9%
Jase Bauer run for no gain to the CMU 36Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+42
96.3%
Marion Lukes run for 42 yds to the NIU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
97.3%
B.J. Harris run for no gain to the NIU 22Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
97.5%
Jase Bauer run for no gain to the NIU 22Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+5
97.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Kenny Brewer III for 5 yds to the NIU 17Similar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+35
97.5%
Tristan Mattson 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:414% → 19%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+46
96.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 46 yds to the CMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
96.3%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the CMU 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-5
96.6%
(00:21) Shotgun Lombardi,Rocky pass complete short right to Pardridge,Dane for 4 yards to the CMU26 (McKinney,Da'Raun) PENALTY NIU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Champe,John) 5 yards from CMU30 to CMU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+8
96.8%
Antario Brown run for 8 yds to the CMU 27Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+5
97.1%
(14:13) No Huddle Lampe,Brock rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU24 (Apsey,Nick; White,Maurice) PENALTY CMU Offside (Lee,Quindario) 5 yards from CMU27 to CMU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
80.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 22 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:1696% → 96%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
95.7%
Marion Lukes run for 5 yds to the CMU 31Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+5
95.9%
Jase Bauer run for 5 yds to the CMU 26Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
95.9%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Chris ParkerSimilar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+4
95.5%
Jake Walrath punt for 36 yds , Dane Pardridge returns for 4 yds to the NIU 42Similar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+4
95.5%
Jake Walrath punt for 36 yds , Dane Pardridge returns for 4 yds to the NIU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:2913% → 10%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
87.2%
Antario Brown run for 9 yds to the NIU 36Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+15
86.4%
Central Michigan Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dakota Cochran) to the CMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
86.2%
Antario Brown run for 8 yds to the CMU 41Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+15
86.1%
(10:59) Shotgun Lombardi,Rocky pass incomplete deep left to Barnes,Grayson PENALTY CMU Pass Interference (McKinney,Da'Raun) 15 yards from CMU41 to CMU26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
85.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Grayson BarnesSimilar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
85.9%
Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the CMU 30Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 14
OPP 30
0
88.4%
Northern Illinois Penalty, Illegal Formation (Tyler Jackson) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 14
OPP 30
0
89.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:2197% → 98%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
97.4%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the CMU 33Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
97.6%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the CMU 37Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+1
97.9%
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd to the CMU 38Similar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
97.9%
Jake Walrath punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 3:489% → 35%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
91.2%
Antario Brown run for 9 yds to the NIU 35Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+12
90.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Christion Carter for 12 yds to the NIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
90.7%
Antario Brown run for 9 yds to the CMU 44Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+2
90.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for 2 yds to the CMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
91.4%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the CMU 42Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
91.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Christion Carter for 3 yds to the CMU 39Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+6
91.9%
Gavin Williams run for 6 yds to the CMU 33Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+9
93.7%
Antario Brown run for 9 yds to the CMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+18
93.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 18 yds to the CMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
65.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 6 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3188% → 94%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
88.0%
Jase Bauer run for 4 yds to the CMU 26Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+3
90.7%
Jase Bauer run for 3 yds to the CMU 29Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+1
92.5%
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd to the CMU 30Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
94.1%
Jake Walrath punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dane Pardridge at the NIU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:2618% → 21%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
81.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Gavin Williams for 10 yds to the NIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
80.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 6 yds to the NIU 41Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
78.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Dane PardridgeSimilar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
79.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26Uncategorized
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:5696% → 97%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
96.3%
Marion Lukes run for no gain to the CMU 45Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
96.5%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the CMU 46Similar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+1
97.0%
Thomas Pannunzio run for 1 yd to the CMU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 27FUMBLE
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
89.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Evan Malcore for 10 yds Evan Malcore fumbled, recovered by CMU Quindario Lee (00:01) Shotgun Lombardi,Rocky pass complete short middle to Patterson,Davis for 10 yards to the NIU21 lateral to Rudolph,Trayvon for 5 yards loss to the NIU14 lateral to Malcore,Evan for 1 yard gain to the NIU15 fumbled by Malcore,Evan at NIU15 forced by Whiteside,Justin recovered by CMU Lee,Quindario at NIU21, End Of Play PENALTY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:27
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Dane Pardridge for 6 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)
-27.6
TD · Q4 3:27
Timeout Central Michigan, clock 03:27
+19
TD · Q2 6:32
Jase Bauer pass complete to Mitchel Collier for 20 yds for a TD
+17.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com