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M-OH

Miami (OH) 30 at Ohio 16

OHIO
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:44 · Jack Wilson punt for 44 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Home team on offense+2.5Pregame prior+12.0Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 1:28: Gianni Spetic 33 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +6.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 1:21: Rashad Amos run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +9.8 pts (now 42%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 11:22: Graham Nicholson 32 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +8.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:48: Aveon Smith run for 3 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +19.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:13: Aveon Smith pass complete to Kevin Davis for 46 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +11.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 10 of 10M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:01M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:03M-OH 4th & 13 at M-OH 16, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:28OHIO 4th & 9 at M-OH 16, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    69.0%−2.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:08M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 40, down 9
    Close callPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:11M-OH 4th & 8 at OHIO 9, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:40OHIO 4th & 9 at OHIO 41, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:20M-OH 4th & 11 at OHIO 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:44OHIO 4th & 8 at OHIO 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:46OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:26OHIO 4th & 13 at OHIO 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−3.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:26OHIO 4th & 13 at OHIO 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−3.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:22M-OH 4th & 5 at OHIO 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−9.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:09OHIO 4th & 3 at OHIO 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.9
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:24OHIO 4th & 1 at M-OH 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    22.9%−2.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−3.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:48M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:11OHIO 4th & 12 at OHIO 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:56OHIO 4th & 1 at M-OH 1, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−3.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:33M-OH 4th & 13 at OHIO 33, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:57OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:21M-OH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:48M-OH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:13M-OH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:56OHIO Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5528% → 29%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
71.8%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the M-OH 35Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+5
71.8%
Rashad Amos run for 5 yds to the M-OH 40Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-7
71.8%
Aveon Smith sacked by Kwame Sutton for a loss of 7 yards to the M-OH 33Similar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
71.5%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 3:0472% → 73%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
71.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 9 yds to the OHIO 30Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 1
OWN 30
-5
71.6%
Ohio Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OHIO 25Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+36
71.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 36 yds to the M-OH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
71.7%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the M-OH 37Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+23
71.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 23 yds to the M-OH 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
71.7%
Kurtis Rourke run for 12 yds to the M-OH 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.7%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:5228% → 28%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
71.9%
SMITH, Aveon scrambles to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the MIA28 (WEAVER, Bradley), out of bounds. PENALTY MIA Holding on BORDERS, Kolby enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the MIA19 to the MIA10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+6
71.9%
Aveon Smith run for 6 yds to the M-OH 16Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 13
OWN 16
0
71.9%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 13
OWN 16
0
72.1%
Aveon Smith run for no gain to the M-OH 16Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
72.5%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Tyler Walton at the OHIO 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4FG
17 plays · 49 yds · 6:3573% → 79%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
72.8%
O'Shaan Allison run for no gain to the OHIO 35Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+13
72.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 13 yds to the OHIO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
73.3%
O'Shaan Allison run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 8
50
-5
73.3%
Ohio Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OHIO 45Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+8
73.0%
Kurtis Rourke run for 8 yds to the M-OH 47Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+5
73.1%
Miami (OH) Penalty, Delay Of Game (Ty Wise) to the M-OH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
73.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 9 yds to the M-OH 33Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+3
73.4%
O'Shaan Allison run for 3 yds to the M-OH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
73.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
73.4%
O'Shaan Allison run for 2 yds to the M-OH 28Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+6
73.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 6 yds to the M-OH 22Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+5
72.9%
Miami (OH) Penalty, Offsides (Kobe Hilton) to the M-OH 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-6
73.4%
O'Shaan Allison run for a loss of 6 yards to the M-OH 23Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 16
OPP 23
+7
72.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 7 yds to the M-OH 16Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
72.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+33
78.7%
Gianni Spetic 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:1626% → 26%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
73.6%
Kevin Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the M-OH 32Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+5
74.2%
Rashad Amos run for 5 yds to the M-OH 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+3
74.0%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the M-OH 40Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
74.3%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:4279% → 78%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
78.7%
Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds to the OHIO 15Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
78.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 7
OWN 15
-4
78.4%
Kurtis Rourke sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the OHIO 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1527% → 29%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
72.6%
Aveon Smith run for 4 yds to the OHIO 7Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
72.6%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 6
OPP 7
-2
73.2%
Aveon Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the OHIO 9Similar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
71.0%
Graham Nicholson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:3173% → 72%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
73.3%
ROURKE, Kurtis pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for CROSS, Miles thrown to the MIA33. PENALTY MIA Pass Interference on STRADER, Raion enforced 15 yards to the OHI40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
73.2%
Ohio Penalty, False Start (Tyler Foster) to the OHIO 35Similar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 15
OWN 35
0
72.3%
BANGURA, Sieh rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the OHI41 (WOULLARD, Caiden;BLAKEY, Eli). PENALTY OHI Holding on AMBURGEY, Jay declined OHI Holding on ATKINSON, Christophe enforced 10 yards from the OHI35 to the OHI25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 25
OWN 25
+4
73.2%
Kurtis Rourke run for 4 yds to the OHIO 29Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 21
OWN 29
+6
73.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 6 yds to the OHIO 35Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+6
71.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 6 yds to the OHIO 41Similar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
71.6%
Jack Wilson punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 5:2029% → 28%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
71.3%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 11 yds to the OHIO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
70.4%
Kevin Davis run for 3 yds to the OHIO 45Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+12
70.3%
Rashad Amos run for 12 yds to the OHIO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
69.4%
Rashad Amos run for a loss of 2 yards to the OHIO 35Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+13
70.0%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 13 yds to the OHIO 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
69.2%
Rashad Amos run for 8 yds to the OHIO 14Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 2
OPP 14
-5
69.2%
Miami (OH) Penalty, False Start (Jack DeJarld) to the OHIO 19Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-4
71.3%
Aveon Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the OHIO 23Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 11
OPP 23
0
72.9%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+40
71.7%
Graham Nicholson 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:3672% → 71%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
72.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 16 yds to the OHIO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
73.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
72.9%
O'Shaan Allison run for 2 yds to the OHIO 43Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
72.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
70.9%
Jack Wilson punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:2328% → 42%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
71.8%
Aveon Smith run for 6 yds to the M-OH 26Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+66
71.5%
Rashad Amos run for 66 yds to the OHIO 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
68.1%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kevin Davis for 7 yds to the OHIO 1Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.3%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:3564% → 62%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
63.6%
ROURKE, Kurtis pass to the right complete for 12 yards to CROSS, Miles caught at the OHI37 and advanced to the OHI37 (STRADER, Raion), out of bounds. PENALTY OHI Holding on ATKINSON, Christophe enforced 10 yards from the OHI25 to the OHI15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+9
62.4%
Sieh Bangura run for 9 yds to the OHIO 24Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
62.3%
Sieh Bangura run for 9 yds to the OHIO 33Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
63.4%
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd to the OHIO 34Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
62.1%
Jack Wilson punt for 58 yds, downed at the M-OH 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:4636% → 37%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
63.7%
[NH] Kneel down by SMITH, Aveon at MIA7 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 7
0
63.3%
[NH] Kneel down by SMITH, Aveon at MIA5 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3458% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
58.2%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Oscar McWood for a loss of 10 yards to the OHIO 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+7
57.8%
Sieh Bangura run for 7 yds to the OHIO 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
56.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
55.2%
Jack Wilson punt for 51 ydsSimilar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
55.2%
Jack Wilson punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0448% → 55%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
51.9%
Aveon Smith sacked by Rayyan Buell for a loss of 5 yards to the OHIO 25Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+3
53.2%
Kevin Davis run for 3 yds to the OHIO 22Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+7
53.8%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Cade McDonald for 7 yds to the OHIO 15Similar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
45.2%
Graham Nicholson 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:1346% → 44%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.4%
O'Shaan Allison run for no gain to the OHIO 25Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
46.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Foster for 9 yds to the OHIO 34Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
47.4%
O'Shaan Allison run for a loss of 2 yards to the OHIO 32Similar
Q3 9:09
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
43.8%
Jack Wilson punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 2:2160% → 79%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
40.3%
Aveon Smith sacked by Adonis Williams Jr. and Keye Thompson for a loss of 1 yard to the M-OH 39Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+5
41.6%
Keyon Mozee run for 5 yds to the M-OH 44Similar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
39.7%
Rashad Amos run for 24 yds to the OHIO 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.6%
Aveon Smith run for 3 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:2426% → 25%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
26.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 11 yds to the OHIO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
27.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 12 yds to the OHIO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
28.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 9 yds to the M-OH 43Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+4
29.4%
Sieh Bangura run for 4 yds to the M-OH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
29.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
28.7%
Kurtis Rourke run for 8 yds to the M-OH 31Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+1
29.4%
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd to the M-OH 30Similar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 1
OPP 30
-5
24.6%
Kurtis Rourke run for a loss of 5 yards to the M-OH 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3681% → 81%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
19.5%
Rashad Amos run for no gain to the M-OH 35Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
19.6%
Aveon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+3
20.1%
Aveon Smith run for 3 yds to the M-OH 38Similar
Q3 1:48
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
17.9%
Alec Bevelhimer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Walton at the OHIO 10Similar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
19.1%
ROURKE, Kurtis pass deep to the left incomplete intended for CROSS, Miles broken up by STRADER, Raion at the OHI30. PENALTY MIA Personal Foul on HILTON, Kobe enforced 15 yards from the OHI10 to the OHI25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:3719% → 18%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
19.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 12 yds to the OHIO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
20.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
19.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-2
19.3%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Caiden Woullard for a loss of 2 yards to the OHIO 35Similar
Q3 0:11
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
17.8%
Jack Wilson punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 3:4784% → 98%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
15.6%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the M-OH 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+8
15.7%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kevin Davis for 8 yds to the M-OH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
14.6%
Aveon Smith run for 4 yds to the M-OH 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-1
14.7%
Rashad Amos run for a loss of 1 yard to the M-OH 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+9
14.9%
Aveon Smith run for 9 yds to the OHIO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
14.3%
Aveon Smith run for 3 yds to the OHIO 46Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+46
2.5%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kevin Davis for 46 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:173% → 9%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
2.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Foster for 8 yds to the OHIO 33Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+13
3.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 13 yds to the OHIO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
3.1%
Ohio Penalty, False Start (Jay Amburgey) to the OHIO 41Similar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+28
3.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 28 yds to the M-OH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
3.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Foster for 6 yds to the M-OH 25Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
3.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+24
3.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 24 yds to the M-OH 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
3.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
3.6%
O'Shaan Allison run for no gain to the M-OH 1Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
3.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 1 yd for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23DOWNS
18 plays · 41 yds · 7:2393% → 99%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
6.8%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the M-OH 27Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
5.3%
Rashad Amos run for 6 yds to the M-OH 33Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
4.2%
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the M-OH 34Similar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
4.1%
Ohio Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the M-OH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
4.0%
Rashad Amos run for 5 yds to the M-OH 44Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
3.9%
Rashad Amos run for 4 yds to the M-OH 48Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
3.9%
Aveon Smith run for 3 yds to the OHIO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
3.8%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the OHIO 47Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+6
3.9%
Rashad Amos run for 6 yds to the OHIO 41Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+11
1.3%
Rashad Amos run for 11 yds to the OHIO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
1.4%
Kneel down by SMITH, Aveon at OHI30 (team loss of 0).Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
1.4%
[NH] Kneel down by SMITH, Aveon at OHI31 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 11
OPP 31
0
1.4%
Kneel down by SMITH, Aveon at OHI33 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 13
OPP 33
0
1.1%
Kneel down by SMITH, Aveon at OHI34 (team loss of 1); MIA turnover on downs, clock 00:33.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 44 yds · 0:331% → 1%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
1.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 9 yds to the OHIO 43Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 1
OWN 43
0
1.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+20
1.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 20 yds to the M-OH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
1.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 12 yds to the M-OH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
1.3%
Ohio Penalty, False Start (Kurt Danneker) to the M-OH 30Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+8
1.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 8 yds to the M-OH 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:48
Aveon Smith run for 3 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
-19.1
TD · Q4 11:13
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kevin Davis for 46 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q2 1:21
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
-9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com