2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:05 · Dante Jackson punt for 42 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:11: Lorenzo Lingard run for 13 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK) — AKR win probability +3.8 pts (now 42%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:18: Terion Stewart run for 3 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK) — BGSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Alan Anaya 33 yd FG GOOD Akron Penalty, Illegal Formation (KJ Martin) declined — BGSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:02: Terion Stewart run for 16 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK) — BGSU win probability +12.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:20: Terion Stewart run for 2 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK) — BGSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5AKR made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 9:58BGSU 4th & 8 at AKR 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.2% before the snapGo for it69.1%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call69.2%79% to makePunt68.5%−0.6average punt
- Q1 7:00AKR 4th & 10 at BGSU 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.7% before the snapGo for it30.5%−0.229% to convertField goalTheir call30.7%62% to makePunt29.4%−1.3average punt
- Q1 4:51BGSU 4th & 4 at BGSU 33, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snapGo for it68.7%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.8%average punt
- Q2 14:14BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 24, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snapGo for it62.8%−1.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.0%average punt
- Q2 10:05AKR 4th & 17 at AKR 14, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snapGo for it28.9%−1.513% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.4%average punt
- Q2 7:53BGSU 4th & 11 at AKR 39, up 3Close callPunted · 67.9% before the snapGo for it68.0%27% to convertField goal67.9%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call67.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 6:14AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 29, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snapGo for it29.3%−1.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.7%average punt
- Q2 3:58BGSU 4th & 1 at AKR 42, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call69.2%70% to convertField goal66.7%−2.530% to makePunt66.9%−2.2average punt
- Q2 2:20AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 44, down 3Close callWent for it · 31.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.9%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt31.0%average punt
- Q3 10:36AKR 4th & 18 at BGSU 45, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snapGo for it25.3%−2.513% to convertField goal26.0%−1.825% to makePuntTheir call27.8%average punt
- Q3 1:29AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 42, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.8%−0.2average punt
- Q4 13:02AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 39, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5AKR made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 1:11AKR Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.1%97% to makeGo for two35.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:18BGSU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.6%97% to makeGo for two68.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:02BGSU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.5%97% to makeGo for two87.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:20BGSU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.6%97% to makeGo for two94.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:28BGSU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:58BGSU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:02AKR Touchdown, down 28 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBGSUDrive 1FG14 plays · 52 yds · 4:4764% → 65%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
64.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 7 yds to the BGSU 37Similar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+5
64.2%
PENALTY Akron Offside (McCoy,Bryan) 5 yards from Akron25 to Akron20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+2
64.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Austin Osborne for 2 yds to the AKR 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2MISSED FG10 plays · 42 yds · 2:4736% → 36%
BGSUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0064% → 64%
Q1 4:51
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
63.8%
Jackson Kleather punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Bobby Golden at the AKR 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4TD6 plays · 72 yds · 3:3336% → 42%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5060% → 59%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
59.7%
Camden Orth run for 6 yds to the BGSU 24 Camden Orth fumbled, recovered by AKR Camden OrthSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6INT4 plays · 11 yds · 1:4440% → 41%
Q2 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+7
59.6%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Drake Anderson for 7 yds to the AKR 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7TD1 play · 3 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 2:0836% → 34%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
64.2%
PENALTY Akron False Start (Williams,Tyhler) 5 yards from Akron21 to Akron16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+8
64.6%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to TJ Banks for 8 yds to the AKR 26Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 5
OWN 26
-12
64.5%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 12 yards to the AKR 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0966% → 64%
Q2 8:29
3RD & 17
OPP 45
+6
64.0%
Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 6 yds to the AKR 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 28 yds · 0:4936% → 34%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
63.9%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Lorenzo Lingard for 1 yd to the AKR 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0867% → 66%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12FUMBLE10 plays · -9 yds · 3:4138% → 36%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
59.3%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Lingard,Lorenzo rush left for 7 yards gain to the BGSU27 (Huskey,Jalen), out of bounds PENALTY Akron Holding (Chambers,Ronan) 10 yards from BGSU34 to BGSU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 20
OPP 44
-8
61.8%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 8 yards to the AKR 48Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 28
OWN 48
+8
64.1%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Daniel George for 8 yds to the BGSU 44Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 20
OPP 44
-10
64.4%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Undercuffler,Jeff pass complete short right to Lingard,Lorenzo for 4 yards to the BGSU40 (Sipp Jr.,Joseph) PENALTY Akron Holding (Frank,Ben) 10 yards from BGSU44 to Akron46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 25
OPP 49
-18
64.3%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. sacked by Ali Saad for a loss of 18 yards to the AKR 13 Jeff Undercuffler Jr. fumbled, recovered by AKR Dontrez Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13FG2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0569% → 74%
AKRDrive 14PUNT14 plays · 30 yds · 4:2031% → 29%
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
69.5%
PENALTY Akron False Start (Williams,Tyhler) 5 yards from Akron25 to Akron20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:43
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+17
70.7%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Daniel George for 17 yds to the AKR 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
69.0%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Caleb Anderson for 3 yds to the AKR 40Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+11
69.0%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 11 yds to the BGSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-15
66.6%
Akron Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (KJ Martin) to the AKR 48Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 25
OWN 48
+7
70.1%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Alex Adams for 7 yds to the BGSU 45Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 18
OPP 45
0
71.2%
Dante Jackson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jhaylin Embry at the BGSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15TD10 plays · 88 yds · 5:2772% → 89%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
75.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 15 yds to the AKR 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+2
76.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 2 yds to the AKR 26Similar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+11
75.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 11 yds to the AKR 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16FUMBLE2 plays · -16 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-16
86.4%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. sacked by Darren Anders for a loss of 16 yards to the AKR 9 Jeff Undercuffler Jr. fumbled, recovered by AKR Dontrez Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17TD4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2389% → 97%
Q3 3:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
89.2%
(03:26) No Huddle Bazelak,Connor pass incomplete short left to Bench,Andrew PENALTY Akron Pass Interference (Nunnally,CJ) 2 yards from Akron04 to Akron02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18INT7 plays · 7 yds · 1:434% → 3%
BGSUDrive 19TD4 plays · 36 yds · 0:4998% → 100%
Q3 0:28
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+36
99.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 36 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20DOWNS9 plays · 16 yds · 2:130% → 0%
Q4 14:44
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+12
99.8%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Bobby Golden for 12 yds to the AKR 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-5
99.8%
Akron Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jeff Undercuffler Jr.) to the AKR 26Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-5
99.8%
(14:09) No Huddle-Shotgun Undercuffler,Jeff pass incomplete short right to Gathings,Jasaiah broken up by Oladokun,Jordan PENALTY Akron Delay Of Game (Undercuffler,Jeff) 5 yards from Akron31 to Akron26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+13
99.8%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Adrian Norton for 13 yds to the AKR 39Similar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 2
OWN 39
-4
99.8%
Tahj Bullock sacked by Darren Anders for a loss of 4 yards to the AKR 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21TD9 plays · 35 yds · 4:53100% → 100%
Q4 9:53
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+10
99.9%
PENALTY Akron UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (McCoy,Bryan) 10 yards from Akron19 to Akron09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Jaison Patterson run for 4 yds to the AKR 8 Jaison Patterson fumbled, recovered by AKR Alex PadgettSimilar
Q4 7:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Camden Orth pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 8 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:470% → 0%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Daniel George for 3 yds to the AKR 28Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+8
99.9%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Caleb Anderson for 8 yds to the BGSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
99.9%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Jake Newell for 6 yds to the BGSU 35Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+17
99.9%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Adrian Norton for 17 yds to the BGSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
99.9%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Caleb Anderson for 7 yds to the BGSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23END OF GAME7 plays · 50 yds · 2:44100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:02
Terion Stewart run for 16 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)
+12.2
TD · Q2 12:18
Terion Stewart run for 3 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)
+7.4
TD · Q3 3:20
Terion Stewart run for 2 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)
+7.3