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CMU

Central Michigan 17 at Ball State 24

BALL
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:03 · Jake Walrath punt for 31 yds , Qian Magwood returns for no gain to the BALL 29 Ball State Penalty, Hill,Austin at BSU40, End Of Play PENALTY Holding (Brayden Evans) to the BALL 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Home team on offense+19.1Pregame prior−3.1Garbage-time factor+5.2Score differential+6.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.8Time remaining+1.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 5:59: Jack Drake 33 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +4.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:07: Marquez Cooper run for 15 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK) — BALL win probability +13.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:29: Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 19 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK) — CMU win probability +14.1 pts (now 39%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:02: Kiael Kelly run for 1 yd for a TD — BALL win probability +10.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:15: Marion Lukes run for 1 yd for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK) — CMU win probability +15.6 pts (now 23%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 11:24CMU 4th & 10 at BALL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:22CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:17BALL 4th & 11 at CMU 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:35CMU 4th & 5 at BALL 41, down 4
    Close callPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    53.7%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:59BALL 4th & 11 at CMU 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:08CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:31BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:09CMU 4th & 16 at CMU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−2.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:04CMU 4th & 2 at BALL 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%−3.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:02BALL 4th & 1 at CMU 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    76.3%−4.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−15.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:03CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 29, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:03CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 29, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:48BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 37, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:32CMU 4th & 5 at BALL 10, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−3.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:11BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:08CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%−4.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:14CMU 4th & 13 at CMU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.9%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 8:05BALL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:07BALL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:29CMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:02BALL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:15CMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.2%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1FG
10 plays · 23 yds · 3:2466% → 65%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
50
0
33.7%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt IIISimilar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 10
50
+5
33.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Chris Parker for 5 yds to the BALL 45Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+5
33.9%
PENALTY BSU Offside (Sape,Jack) 5 yards from BSU45 to BSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
34.0%
Marion Lukes run for 5 yds to the BALL 35Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+8
34.1%
Sam Hicks run for 8 yds to the BALL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
34.2%
Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the BALL 25Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+2
34.4%
B.J. Harris run for 2 yds to the BALL 27Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
34.8%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt IIISimilar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+45
34.8%
Tristan Mattson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0735% → 38%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the BALL 29Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
35.0%
Kiael Kelly run for 14 yds to the BALL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
35.6%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 10 yds to the CMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
35.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 6 yds to the CMU 41Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+26
36.2%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 26 yds to the CMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
36.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 12 yds to the CMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
38.1%
Kiael Kelly run for 3 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:3562% → 60%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.6%
Jase Bauer run for 5 yds to the CMU 30Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
37.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 5 yds to the CMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
38.0%
B.J. Harris run for 1 yd to the CMU 36Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
38.3%
Jase Bauer run for no gain to the CMU 36Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
39.0%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to B.J. HarrisSimilar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+5
39.6%
Jake Walrath punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BALL 12 , Qian Magwood returns for 5 yds to the BALL 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:5839% → 40%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
38.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the BALL 16Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+9
39.3%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 9 yds to the BALL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
39.6%
Central Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (Da'Raun McKinney) to the BALL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
41.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 11 yds to the CMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
41.5%
Kiael Kelly sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the CMU 46Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
41.1%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Maximus WebsterSimilar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 11
OPP 46
0
40.5%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Nick PresleySimilar
Q1 2:17
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
39.9%
Lucas Borrow punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 50 yds · 4:2559% → 58%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
40.8%
Marion Lukes run for 7 yds to the CMU 16Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+4
40.8%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the CMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
41.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 3 yds to the CMU 23Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
41.4%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 25Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+13
42.1%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 13 yds to the CMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
41.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Stephan Bracey Jr. for 3 yds to the CMU 35Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+19
42.1%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 4 yds to the BALL 39 for a 1ST down Ball State Penalty, Personal Foul (Keionte Newson) to the BALL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
40.4%
PENALTY BSU Delay Of Game (Houston,Sidney) 5 yards from BSU46 to BSU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 5
OPP 41
0
40.4%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Stephan Bracey Jr.Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
40.5%
Marion Lukes run for no gain to the BALL 41Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
41.3%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt IIISimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
42.2%
Jake Walrath punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Qian Magwood at the BALL 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6FG
14 plays · 73 yds · 6:2643% → 53%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
42.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 10 yds to the BALL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
43.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the BALL 25Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+8
43.8%
Kiael Kelly run for 8 yds to the BALL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
44.4%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 3 yds to the BALL 36Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+39
45.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 39 yds to the CMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
47.4%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Nick Munson for 5 yds to the CMU 20Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
47.7%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Vaughn PembertonSimilar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+6
47.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 6 yds to the CMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
49.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds to the CMU 7Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+1
49.7%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 1 yd to the CMU 8Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 4
OPP 8
-5
49.1%
(06:39) PENALTY BSU False Start (Koziol,Tanner) 5 yards from CMU08 to CMU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 9
OPP 13
-2
49.3%
Kiael Kelly sacked by Maurice White for a loss of 2 yards to the CMU 15Similar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+33
53.3%
Jack Drake 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3747% → 44%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
52.8%
Sam Hicks run for 3 yds to the CMU 17Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+6
53.6%
Jase Bauer run for 6 yds to the CMU 23Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 1
OWN 23
-5
53.5%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun Harris,B.J. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU24 (Houston,Sidney) PENALTY CMU Illegal Formation (Young,Marcus) 5 yards from CMU23 to CMU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
55.0%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Marcus YoungSimilar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
55.9%
Jake Walrath punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BALL 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2955% → 55%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
55.2%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the BALL 35Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
55.4%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 4 yds to the BALL 31Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
54.2%
Ball State Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+19
54.5%
Lucas Borrow punt for 40 yds , Javorian Wimberly returns for 19 yds to the CMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:0543% → 41%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+24
56.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 24 yds to the CMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
55.1%
(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Bauer,Jase sacked for loss of 3 yards to the CMU36 (Riley,Jordan) PENALTY CMU Holding (Smith,Keegan) 10 yards from CMU39 to CMU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+4
57.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 4 yds to the CMU 33Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 16
OWN 33
-9
57.6%
Jase Bauer sacked by Sidney Houston Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the CMU 24Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 25
OWN 24
+9
58.5%
Marion Lukes run for 9 yds to the CMU 33Similar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 16
OWN 33
0
59.2%
Jake Walrath punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BALL 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10END OF HALF
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:5761% → 57%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
60.6%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 3 yds to the BALL 40Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+8
61.4%
(00:45) Shotgun Kelly,Kiael pass incomplete short middle to Pemberton,Vaughn, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CMU Pass Interference (Whiteside,Justin) 8 yards from BSU40 to BSU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
62.4%
Kiael Kelly run for 6 yds to the CMU 46Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+3
61.6%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Vaughn Pemberton for 3 yds to the CMU 43Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+14
60.4%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 14 yds to the CMU 29 for a 1ST down Ball State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
56.8%
(15:00) Mattson,Tristan kickoff 0 yards to the CMU35 PENALTY CMU Offside (Apsey,Nick) 5 yards from CMU35 to CMU30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 4:3862% → 79%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
50
+1
61.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the CMU 49Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
61.7%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the CMU 49Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+16
60.4%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 16 yds to the CMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
63.4%
Kiael Kelly run for 1 yd to the CMU 34Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+10
63.6%
Kiael Kelly run for 10 yds to the CMU 24Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+5
63.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the CMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
65.8%
Kiael Kelly run for 4 yds to the CMU 15Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+15
79.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 15 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 5:2424% → 39%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
76.3%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 23Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+14
77.1%
Marion Lukes run for 14 yds to the CMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
76.4%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the CMU 34Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+15
78.2%
(08:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Bauer,Jase pass incomplete short left to Davis,Tyson QB hurried by Berger,Brandon PENALTY BSU Personal Foul (Mims,Kyron) 15 yards from CMU34 to CMU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
76.0%
B.J. Harris run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 9
50
+4
76.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Mitchel Collier for 4 yds to the BALL 46Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+3
77.0%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the BALL 43Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+2
78.2%
Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the BALL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
75.2%
Marion Lukes run for 6 yds to the BALL 35Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+20
74.4%
Jase Bauer run for 20 yds to the BALL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
75.1%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the BALL 19Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 14
OPP 19
+19
61.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 19 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:1870% → 92%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
69.5%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 13 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
71.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 8 yds to the BALL 46Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+10
73.4%
Kiael Kelly run for 10 yds to the CMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
75.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 12 yds to the CMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
76.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the CMU 27Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+11
79.3%
Malcolm Gillie run for 11 yds to the CMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
79.6%
Kiael Kelly run for 1 yd to the CMU 15Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+8
81.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 8 yds to the CMU 7Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+1
80.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the CMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
81.2%
PENALTY CMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Apsey,Nick) 3 yards from CMU06 to CMU03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
81.5%
Kiael Kelly run for 2 ydsSimilar
Q4 14:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the CMU 2Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
81.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the CMU 1Similar
Q4 13:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.3%
Kiael Kelly run for 1 yd for a TDSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
92.3%
Courville,Jackson kick attempt failed (H: Borrow,Lucas, LS: Dunn,Tucker) PENALTY CMU Offside (White,Maurice) 2 yards from CMU03 to CMU01. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5212% → 11%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.9%
B.J. Harris run for 1 yd to the CMU 24Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
88.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Thomas Pannunzio for 5 yds to the CMU 29Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
88.3%
Jase Bauer run for no gain to the CMU 29Similar
Q4 11:03
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
89.5%
Jake Walrath punt for 31 yds , Qian Magwood returns for no gain to the BALL 29 Ball State Penalty, Hill,Austin at BSU40, End Of Play PENALTY Holding (Brayden Evans) to the BALL 30Similar
Q4 11:03
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
89.5%
Jake Walrath punt for 31 yds , Qian Magwood returns for no gain to the BALL 29 Ball State Penalty, Hill,Austin at BSU40, End Of Play PENALTY Holding (Brayden Evans) to the BALL 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0193% → 95%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
93.4%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 1 yd to the BALL 31Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+1
93.5%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd to the BALL 32Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+5
94.3%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 5 yds to the BALL 37Similar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+14
94.6%
Lucas Borrow punt for 42 yds , Javorian Wimberly returns for 14 yds to the CMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:2510% → 23%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
90.1%
Marion Lukes run for 6 yds to the CMU 41Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+10
89.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 10 yds to the BALL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
89.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 23 yds to the BALL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
89.3%
Sam Hicks run for 8 yds to the BALL 18Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+1
89.5%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the BALL 17Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+2
90.9%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the BALL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
90.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 4 yds to the BALL 11Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+1
90.8%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the BALL 10Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
91.7%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt IIISimilar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+9
92.3%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Mitchel Collier for 9 yds to the BALL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.6%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 10 yds · 1:5092% → 94%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
91.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds to the BALL 38Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+3
93.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the BALL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
94.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the BALL 42Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+6
94.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 6 yds to the BALL 36Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+5
94.4%
Kiael Kelly run for 5 yds to the BALL 41Similar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
94.2%
Lucas Borrow punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMU 8 , Javorian Wimberly returns for no gain to the CMU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 41 yds · 1:418% → 7%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
92.3%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 2 yds to the CMU 10Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
92.1%
Jase Bauer run for no gain to the CMU 10Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+10
92.6%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 10 yds to the CMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.9%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Sam HicksSimilar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
92.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 9 yds to the CMU 29Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
91.8%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt IIISimilar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+2
92.1%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
91.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 11 yds to the CMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
91.5%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Bauer,Jase pass incomplete deep right to Davis,Tyson QB hurried by Sape,Jack PENALTY BSU Holding (Baldwin,Thailand) 10 yards from CMU42 to BSU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
90.1%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Tyson DavisSimilar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-3
90.8%
Jase Bauer sacked by Sidney Houston Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the CMU 49Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 13
OWN 49
0
92.5%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Chris ParkerSimilar
Q4 0:14
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
92.9%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Tyson DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
96.9%
K. Kelly takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:15
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)
-15.6
TD · Q3 4:29
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 19 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)
-14.1
TD · Q3 10:07
Marquez Cooper run for 15 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)
+13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com