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KENT

Kent State 14 at Eastern Michigan 28

EMU
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreKENT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:39 · Mitchell Tomasek punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMU 45 , Luke Floriea returns for 18 yds to the EMU 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Home team on offense+5.1Pregame prior+17.1Score differential+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Garbage-time factor+1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:44: Samson Evans run for 19 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK) — EMU win probability +7.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:02: Austin Smith pass complete to Tanner Knue for 18 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK) — EMU win probability +7.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:02: Timeout Eastern Michigan, clock 07:02 — KENT win probability +1.4 pts (now 4%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:19: Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 14 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK) — KENT win probability +10.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:08: Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 43 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK) — KENT win probability +4.6 pts (now 5%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10KENT made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
  1. Q1 13:56KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:21EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:19KENT 4th & 6 at EMU 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%−<0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:17EMU 4th & 9 at EMU 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:27EMU 4th & 12 at KENT 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    71.5%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:10KENT 4th & 2 at EMU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    27.6%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:35KENT 4th & 2 at EMU 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%−0.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:33EMU 4th & 7 at EMU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:06KENT 4th & 9 at EMU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    25.4%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:06KENT 4th & 9 at EMU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    25.4%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:39EMU 4th & 5 at EMU 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:18KENT 4th & 11 at EMU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    24.3%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:19KENT 4th & 2 at EMU 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.9%−2.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:39KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:14EMU 4th & 7 at EMU 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:47EMU 4th & 20 at KENT 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    92.4%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:40KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:51EMU 4th & 5 at KENT 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:58KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 16, down 14
    Close callPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:02KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:59EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 9, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:26EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:23KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.8%−0.7
    average punt
  24. Q4 1:44KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4KENT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 14:54EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:44EMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:02EMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:19KENT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:28EMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:08KENT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KENTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:3923% → 23%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
77.2%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 2 yds to the KENT 42Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
77.2%
Michael Alaimo pass incomplete to Jameel Gardner Jr.Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
77.2%
Michael Alaimo pass incomplete to Chrishon McCraySimilar
Q1 13:56
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+3
77.2%
Josh Smith punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMU 5 , Hamze El-Zayat returns for 3 yds to the EMU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2977% → 77%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
77.1%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to JB Mitchell IIISimilar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+1
77.1%
Jaylon Jackson run for 1 yd to the EMU 6Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+3
77.1%
Austin Smith run for 3 yds to the EMU 9Similar
Q1 12:21
4TH & 6
OWN 9
0
77.0%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 44 yds , Luke Floriea returns for no gain to the KENT 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:5123% → 23%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
77.2%
Jaylen Thomas run for 14 yds to the EMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
77.1%
Jaylen Thomas run for 4 yds to the EMU 35Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
77.0%
Michael Alaimo pass incomplete to Chrishon McCraySimilar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
77.1%
Michael Alaimo pass incomplete to Luke FlorieaSimilar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
77.3%
Michael Alaimo punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2178% → 78%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
77.5%
run for 8 yds to the EMU 12 fumbled, recovered by EMU Austin SmithSimilar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+6
77.5%
Austin Smith run for 6 yds to the EMU 6Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 24
OWN 6
+15
77.4%
Jaylon Jackson run for 15 yds to the EMU 21Similar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
77.5%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4223% → 23%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
77.3%
Gavin Garcia run for 3 yds to the KENT 43Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-10
76.1%
(08:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Garcia,Gavin rush right for 9 yards gain to the EMU48 (Grant-Randall,Tim) PENALTY KENT Holding (Harris,Trell) 10 yards from KENT43 to KENT33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+9
77.5%
Gavin Garcia run for 9 yds to the KENT 42 Gavin Garcia fumbled, recovered by EMU Elijah WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5580% → 79%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
79.7%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Tanner KnueSimilar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
79.7%
Jaylon Jackson run for 2 yds to the KENT 44Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 12
OPP 44
0
79.3%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Tanner KnueSimilar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 12
OPP 44
0
79.0%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7DOWNS
21 plays · 85 yds · 10:4422% → 23%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
77.6%
Jaylen Thomas run for 9 yds to the KENT 19Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+7
77.6%
Jaylen Thomas run for 7 yds to the KENT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
77.2%
Jaylen Thomas run for 5 yds to the KENT 31Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+2
77.3%
Jaylen Thomas run for 2 yds to the KENT 33Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+8
77.5%
Jaylen Thomas run for 8 yds to the KENT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
77.1%
Tommy Ulatowski run for 14 yds to the EMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
76.3%
Gavin Garcia run for 4 yds to the EMU 41Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
76.2%
Gavin Garcia run for 2 yds to the EMU 39Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+2
76.5%
Jaylen Thomas run for 2 yds to the EMU 37Similar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+2
77.2%
Tommy Ulatowski run for 2 yds to the EMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
76.1%
Jaylen Thomas run for 7 yds to the EMU 28Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+2
75.9%
Jaylen Thomas run for 2 yds to the EMU 26Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
76.6%
Jaylen Thomas run for 2 yds to the EMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
75.8%
Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the EMU 21Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+7
75.7%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 7 yds to the EMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
75.7%
Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the EMU 11Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+2
75.6%
Jaylen Thomas run for 2 yds to the EMU 9Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+3
76.2%
Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the EMU 6Similar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+1
77.0%
Jaylen Thomas run for 1 yd to the EMU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3581% → 80%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
80.6%
Samson Evans run for 3 yds to the EMU 8Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 8
0
80.4%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Hamze El-ZayatSimilar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 7
OWN 8
0
80.0%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to JB Mitchell IIISimilar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 7
OWN 8
+20
79.7%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 59 yds , Luke Floriea returns for 20 yds to the EMU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:2022% → 21%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
77.9%
Gavin Garcia run for 2 yds to the EMU 45Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+1
78.0%
Gavin Garcia run for 1 yd to the EMU 46Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
78.7%
Michael Alaimo pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:06
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
79.5%
Josh Smith punt for 45 ydsSimilar
Q2 9:06
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
79.5%
Josh Smith punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:2782% → 81%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
81.7%
PENALTY EMU False Start (Daniels,Blake). NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
81.6%
Austin Smith run for 2 yds to the EMU 3Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+3
81.6%
Samson Evans run for 3 yds to the EMU 6Similar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 5
OWN 6
0
81.6%
Austin Smith run for no gain to the EMU 6Similar
Q2 6:39
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+18
81.2%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMU 45 , Luke Floriea returns for 18 yds to the EMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1221% → 19%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
79.4%
Jaylen Thomas run for no gain to the EMU 45Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
79.6%
Michael Alaimo pass incomplete to Jameel Gardner Jr.Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+1
80.4%
Jaylen Thomas run for 1 yd to the EMU 46Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
81.5%
Josh Smith punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 4:2583% → 89%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
82.5%
Jaylon Jackson run for 13 yds to the EMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
82.2%
Jaylon Jackson run for 1 yd to the EMU 29Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+12
82.1%
Austin Smith pass complete to Hamze El-Zayat for 12 yds to the EMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
83.4%
Austin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
83.0%
Jaylon Jackson run for no gain to the EMU 41Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+19
82.3%
Austin Smith pass complete to Tanner Knue for 19 yds to the KENT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
83.8%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Blake DanielsSimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
83.7%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to JB Mitchell IIISimilar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+12
82.8%
Austin Smith pass complete to Tanner Knue for 12 yds to the KENT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
84.0%
Samson Evans run for no gain to the KENT 28Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
84.2%
Austin Smith pass complete to Hamze El-Zayat for 9 yds to the KENT 19Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+19
88.7%
Samson Evans run for 19 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:3011% → 12%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
89.0%
Jaylen Thomas run for 6 yds to the KENT 36Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+9
88.6%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 9 yds to the KENT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
88.5%
Michael Alaimo run for 11 yds to the EMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:2314% → 14%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
85.8%
Tommy Ulatowski run for 4 yds to the KENT 41Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
85.5%
Tommy Ulatowski run for 3 yds to the KENT 38Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+12
86.4%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Trell Harris for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
50
+4
85.1%
Jaylen Thomas run for 4 yds to the EMU 46Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+4
85.3%
Jaylen Thomas run for 4 yds to the EMU 42Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
85.4%
Jaylen Thomas run for no gain to the EMU 42Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+1
86.3%
Tommy Ulatowski run for 1 yd to the EMU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:1087% → 97%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
87.0%
Jaylon Jackson run for 1 yd to the EMU 42Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+4
87.1%
Austin Smith pass complete to Blake Daniels for 4 yds to the EMU 46Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+15
87.2%
Austin Smith run for 15 yds to the KENT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
88.1%
Hamze El-Zayat run for 1 yd to the KENT 38Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+3
88.2%
Jaylon Jackson run for 3 yds to the KENT 35Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+15
88.0%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Smith,Austin pass incomplete deep right to El-Zayat,Hamze PENALTY KENT Pass Interference (Sheppert,Bryce) 15 yards from KENT35 to KENT20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
89.3%
Austin Smith pass complete to Tanner Knue for 2 yds to the KENT 18Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
97.1%
Austin Smith pass complete to Tanner Knue for 18 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:094% → 4%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.8%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Justin Holmes for 4 yds to the KENT 29Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
95.6%
(06:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Ulatowski,Tommy pass incomplete deep right to McCray,Chrishon PENALTY KENT Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Golden,Cameron) 5 yards from KENT29 to KENT24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
95.9%
PENALTY KENT False Start (Gardner,Jameel) 5 yards from KENT24 to KENT19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+12
96.0%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Trell Harris for 12 yds to the KENT 31Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
95.7%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Chrishon McCraySimilar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
96.0%
Josh Smith punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1598% → 97%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
97.7%
Samson Evans run for 2 yds to the EMU 46Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+1
97.7%
Samson Evans run for 1 yd to the EMU 47Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
97.5%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Tanner KnueSimilar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
97.3%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Luke Floriea at the KENT 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18TD
8 plays · 87 yds · 1:473% → 14%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+16
97.1%
Gavin Garcia run for 16 yds to the KENT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
97.0%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Trell HarrisSimilar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+12
97.1%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 12 yds to the KENT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
97.0%
Gavin Garcia run for 2 yds to the KENT 43Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+40
97.1%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 40 yds to the EMU 17 for a 1ST down Eastern Michigan Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
96.7%
Tommy Ulatowski run for 3 yds to the EMU 14Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
86.0%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 14 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:1895% → 97%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
95.1%
Austin Smith pass complete to Hamze El-Zayat for 8 yds to the EMU 43Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+10
95.8%
(01:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Smith,Austin pass incomplete short left to Lockett,Terry, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY KENT Pass Interference (Cokley,Xavier) 10 yards from EMU43 to KENT47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
96.0%
Jaylon Jackson run for 11 yds to the KENT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
96.1%
Jaylon Jackson run for 5 yds to the KENT 41Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 15
OPP 41
-5
97.0%
PENALTY EMU False Start (Conti,Zack) 5 yards from KENT41 to KENT46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 20
OPP 46
0
97.1%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Jaylon JacksonSimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 20
OPP 46
0
96.9%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Jaylon JacksonSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 20
OPP 46
0
96.6%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:589% → 8%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
91.2%
Jaylen Thomas run for 7 yds to the KENT 19Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 3
OWN 19
0
90.7%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Trell HarrisSimilar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+5
91.6%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Justin Holmes for 5 yds to the KENT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
91.2%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Trell HarrisSimilar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
91.3%
Tommy Ulatowski run for no gain to the KENT 24Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
91.6%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Luke FlorieaSimilar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 10
OWN 24
+19
91.9%
Josh Smith punt for 47 yds , Hamze El-Zayat returns for 19 yds to the EMU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4298% → 98%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
97.5%
Austin Smith run for 4 yds to the EMU 44Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 14
OWN 44
0
97.6%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Terry Lockett Jr.Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 14
OWN 44
+9
97.5%
Austin Smith run for 9 yds to the KENT 47Similar
Q4 10:51
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
97.8%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Luke Floriea at the KENT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:498% → 6%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
92.5%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Chrishon McCraySimilar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+6
92.5%
Tommy Ulatowski run for 6 yds to the KENT 16Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
93.9%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Luke FlorieaSimilar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 4
OWN 16
+26
94.0%
Josh Smith punt for 47 yds , Hamze El-Zayat returns for 26 yds to the KENT 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 23TD
4 plays · 37 yds · 0:1899% → 100%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+34
98.8%
Austin Smith pass complete to Tanner Knue for 34 yds to the KENT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Samson Evans run for 3 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:201% → 1%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.2%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Gavin GarciaSimilar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
99.2%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Jameel Gardner Jr.Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
99.2%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Jameel Gardner Jr.Similar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
99.2%
Josh Smith punt for 67 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:55100% → 100%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
99.8%
Jaylon Jackson run for 4 yds to the EMU 9Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 6
OWN 9
0
99.8%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Tanner KnueSimilar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 6
OWN 9
0
99.8%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Tanner KnueSimilar
Q4 7:59
4TH & 6
OWN 9
0
99.7%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Luke Floriea at the KENT 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 26FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:441% → 1%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.2%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Justin HolmesSimilar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.3%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 6 yds to the EMU 47Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+5
99.3%
Tommy Ulatowski run for 5 yds to the EMU 42 Tommy Ulatowski fumbled, recovered by EMU Adrian GonzalezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 27FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:36100% → 100%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
99.7%
Jaylon Jackson run for 14 yds to the KENT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
99.8%
Jaylon Jackson run for 13 yds to the EMU 43 Jaylon Jackson fumbled, recovered by KENT Devin NicholsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 28TD
2 plays · 43 yds · 0:081% → 5%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.4%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Chrishon McCraySimilar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+43
94.8%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 43 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:3499% → 99%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
99.2%
Samson Evans run for no gain to the EMU 2Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
99.3%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Jere GetzingerSimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+15
99.3%
(05:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Smith,Austin pass incomplete short left to Daniels,Blake PENALTY KENT Personal Foul (West,CJ) 15 yards from EMU02 to EMU17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
99.0%
Samson Evans run for 4 yds to the EMU 21Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
99.1%
Samson Evans run for no gain to the EMU 21Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
99.3%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Hamze El-ZayatSimilar
Q4 3:26
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
99.2%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 30FUMBLE
9 plays · 3 yds · 1:344% → 2%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
96.4%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Chrishon McCraySimilar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+16
96.5%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to for 16 yds to the KENT 37Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+6
96.8%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Jameel Gardner Jr. for 6 yds to the KENT 43Similar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+8
96.6%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Jameel Gardner Jr. for 8 yds to the EMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
96.3%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Luke FlorieaSimilar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-6
96.3%
Tommy Ulatowski sacked by Mikah Coleman for a loss of 6 yards to the KENT 45Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 16
OWN 45
0
98.4%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Jameel Gardner Jr.Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 16
OWN 45
+5
98.5%
Tommy Ulatowski run for 5 yds to the KENT 40 Tommy Ulatowski fumbled, recovered by EMU Peyton PriceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 31END OF GAME
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.5%
Samson Evans run for 5 yds to the KENT 35Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+4
99.5%
Samson Evans run for 4 yds to the KENT 31Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
99.5%
Samson Evans run for 3 yds to the KENT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
99.6%
A. Smith takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 29
-1
99.6%
A. Smith takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:19
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Luke Floriea for 14 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q3 7:02
Austin Smith pass complete to Tanner Knue for 18 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q2 0:44
Samson Evans run for 19 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com