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BGSU

Bowling Green 24 at Buffalo 14

BUF
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:03 · Alex McNulty 50 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 76Home team on offense−13.8Pregame prior+7.5Score differential−8.1Garbage-time factor−4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:23: Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 3 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK) — BGSU win probability +13.7 pts (now 54%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:20: PaSean Wimberly 18 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Alan Anaya Kick) — BGSU win probability +13.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:10: pass incomplete — BUF win probability +9.5 pts (now 35%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:02: CJ Ogbonna pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 24 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +11.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:21: Jackson Kleather punt for 48 yds — BGSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BGSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:51BGSU 4th & 13 at BGSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:58BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:42BGSU 4th & 5 at BUF 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:29BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:20BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:03BUF 4th & 3 at BGSU 32, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.2%−1.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:35BUF 4th & 9 at BGSU 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    22.1%−0.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:54BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−4.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:17BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.2%−2.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:35BGSU 4th & 1 at BUF 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.7%−3.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−4.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:54BGSU 4th & 1 at BUF 24, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.7%−3.0
    68% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−11.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:08BUF 4th & 10 at midfield, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:33BGSU 4th & 3 at BUF 43, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    83.3%−3.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:45BUF 4th & 7 at BGSU 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    8.2%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:21BGSU 4th & 15 at BGSU 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:38BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:25BGSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:23BGSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:20BGSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:02BUF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:0935% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
65.1%
Terion Stewart run for 7 yds to the BGSU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+19
65.1%
Terion Stewart run for 19 yds to the BUFF 49 Terion Stewart fumbled, recovered by BGSU Alex Wollschlaeger for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
65.1%
Bowling Green Penalty, false start (Odieu Hiliare) to the BGSU 46Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 46
-5
65.1%
Bowling Green Penalty, false start (Tunde Fatukasi) to the BGSU 41Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 41
0
65.1%
Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron KeithSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 41
0
65.1%
pass incomplete to Abdul-Fatai IbrahimSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 41
+7
65.1%
Ta'ron Keith run for 7 yds to the BGSU 48Similar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
65.0%
Jackson Kleather punt for 24 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5365% → 65%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
65.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Boobie Curry, broken up by Shamoun Duncan-NiusuluSimilar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
64.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the BUFF 34Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
64.9%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Boobie Curry, broken up by Jalen HuskeySimilar
Q1 10:58
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
64.7%
Anthony Venneri punt for 41 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for no gain to the BGSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5035% → 35%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+20
64.8%
Terion Stewart run for 20 yds to the BGSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
64.5%
Bowling Green Penalty, Offensive holding (Tunde Fatukasi) to the BGSU 31Similar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 20
OWN 31
-3
64.8%
Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the BGSU 28Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 23
OWN 28
+10
64.7%
Camden Orth pass complete to Austin Osborne for 10 yds Camden Orth fumbled, recovered by BUFF Marcus FuquaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 1:3066% → 68%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
65.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 9 yds to the BGSU 24Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+4
65.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the BGSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
65.6%
for a 1ST down Bowling Green Penalty, personal foul (Cashius Howell) to the BGSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
67.8%
Cole Snyder run for 10 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) Buffalo Penalty, false start (Tyler Doty) to the BGSU 8 (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:5633% → 35%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
67.0%
Camden Orth run for 7 yds to the BGSU 32Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
66.7%
Terion Stewart run for 6 yds to the BGSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
66.9%
Terion Stewart run for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 37Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+15
67.1%
Ta'ron Keith run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUFF 49 for a 1ST down Odieu Hiliare run for 15 yds to the BUFF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+42
66.4%
Camden Orth pass complete to Austin Osborne for 42 yds to the BUFF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
66.0%
Terion Stewart run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUFF 9Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
66.0%
pass incomplete to Ta'ron KeithSimilar
Q1 3:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
67.0%
Camden Orth pass complete to Finn Hogan for 4 yds to the BUFF 5Similar
Q1 2:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
65.1%
Alan Anaya 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4766% → 66%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
65.8%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the BUFF 39Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-19
66.1%
Cole Snyder run for a loss of 19 yards to the BUFF 9 Cole Snyder fumbled, recovered by BGSU Darius LorfilsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:2336% → 39%
Q1 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
63.6%
Terion Stewart run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUFF 11Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+10
63.7%
Terion Stewart run for 10 yds to the BUFF 1Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.6%
Camden Orth run for 1 yd for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:5662% → 61%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.8%
Mike Washington run for 7 yds to the BUFF 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
62.7%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the BUFF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
61.9%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
61.8%
Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the BUFF 40Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
62.2%
pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+4
60.9%
Anthony Venneri punt for 50 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for 4 yds to the BGSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 8:0639% → 54%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
60.9%
Terion Stewart run for 3 yds to the BGSU 17Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+12
60.9%
Camden Orth run for 12 yds to the BGSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
60.6%
Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 7 yds to the BGSU 36Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+19
60.0%
Terion Stewart run for 19 yds to the BUFF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
59.4%
Terion Stewart run for 5 yds to the BUFF 40Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+14
59.2%
Camden Orth run for 14 yds to the BUFF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
58.8%
Ta'ron Keith run for 4 yds to the BUFF 22Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+1
58.8%
Terion Stewart run for 1 yd to the BUFF 21Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+7
59.4%
Camden Orth pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 7 yds to the BUFF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
58.8%
Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
58.8%
Camden Orth run for 4 yds to the BUFF 10Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+7
59.4%
Camden Orth run for 7 yds to the BUFF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
45.7%
Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 3 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:0347% → 35%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
47.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the BUFF 31Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
47.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the BUFF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
47.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the BUFF 40Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
48.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUFF 42Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-4
48.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the BUFF 38Similar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+18
34.6%
PaSean Wimberly 18 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Alan Anaya Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:2734% → 34%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
34.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 6 yds to the BUFF 31Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
34.4%
Cole Snyder pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12INT
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:3674% → 75%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
26.1%
Terion Stewart run for 11 yds to the BUFF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
25.0%
Camden Orth pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13MISSED FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:0735% → 33%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
34.6%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
33.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 6 yds to the BUFF 46Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+15
34.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 15 yds to the BGSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
35.6%
pass incomplete to Ron Cook Jr.Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
35.3%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Cole Harrity, broken up by Dontrez BrownSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+7
35.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 7 yds to the BGSU 32Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+50
33.2%
Alex McNulty 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14INT
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:3731% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
30.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the BUFF 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+3
30.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the BUFF 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+6
31.0%
Victor Snow run for 6 yds to the BUFF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
31.2%
CJ Ogbonna run for 8 yds to the BUFF 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+3
32.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the BUFF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
32.9%
CJ Ogbonna run for 8 yds to the BGSU 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+4
33.9%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the BGSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
33.6%
CJ Ogbonna run for a loss of 3 yards to the BGSU 48Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 13
OPP 48
0
26.4%
CJ Ogbonna pass incomplete, broken up by Evan Branch-HaynesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:4878% → 81%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
50
+1
22.1%
Terion Stewart run for 1 yd to the BUFF 49Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+16
22.2%
Terion Stewart run for 16 yds to the BUFF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
21.9%
Terion Stewart run for a loss of 3 yards to the BUFF 36Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+4
22.3%
Terion Stewart run for 4 yds to the BUFF 32Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
19.2%
Camden Orth pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:3322% → 35%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
22.3%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the BUFF 28Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+15
22.3%
CJ Ogbonna pass incomplete to Cole Harrity for a 1ST down Bowling Green Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Davon Ferguson) to the BUFF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
24.0%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the BUFF 45Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+15
24.0%
for a 1ST down Bowling Green Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Evan Branch-Haynes) to the BGSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
24.8%
CJ Ogbonna pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr., broken up by Jordan OladokunSimilar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-9
24.4%
CJ Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the BGSU 39 Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Andrew Schnackenberg) to the BGSU 49Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 19
OPP 49
+10
23.5%
CJ Ogbonna run for 10 yds to the BGSU 39Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
24.2%
Ron Cook run for no gain to the BGSU 39Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 9
OPP 39
+15
23.7%
CJ Ogbonna pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 15 yds to the BGSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
35.1%
CJ Ogbonna pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 24 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0871% → 69%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.5%
pass incomplete to Ta'ron KeithSimilar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
29.9%
Terion Stewart run for a loss of 1 yard to the BGSU 24Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
30.5%
pass incomplete to Harold Fannin Jr.Similar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+3
30.9%
Jackson Kleather punt for 44 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 3 yds to the BUFF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3729% → 27%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
29.2%
Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the BUFF 41Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+1
31.0%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the BUFF 42Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
30.1%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the BUFF 44Similar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
27.3%
Ron Cook run for no gain to the BUFF 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 5 yds · 5:2375% → 84%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
24.8%
Terion Stewart run for no gain to the BUFF 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
24.7%
Camden Orth pass complete to Austin Osborne for 7 yds to the BUFF 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
25.0%
Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the BUFF 35Similar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
26.8%
Harold Fannin Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUFF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
23.3%
Terion Stewart run for 7 yds to the BUFF 26Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 3
OPP 26
-13
23.1%
Camden Orth run for 2 yds to the BUFF 24 Bowling Green Penalty, personal foul (Alex Padgett) to the BUFF 39Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 19
OPP 42
+18
25.4%
Camden Orth run for 18 yds to the BUFF 24Similar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+42
17.3%
Alan Anaya 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 16
OPP 39
-3
16.0%
Terion Stewart run for a loss of 3 yards to the BUFF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:4618% → 16%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
18.1%
Mike Washington run for 10 yds to the BUFF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
18.7%
pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+16
18.4%
Victor Snow run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
50
0
20.6%
CJ Ogbonna pass incomplete to Mike Washington, broken up by Davon FergusonSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 10
50
0
20.0%
pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 10
50
0
18.9%
CJ Ogbonna pass incomplete to Cameron Ball, broken up by Davon FergusonSimilar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 10
50
0
15.6%
pass incomplete to Boobie CurrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3585% → 86%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
50
0
14.6%
pass incomplete to Terion StewartSimilar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 10
50
+8
14.6%
Camden Orth run for 8 yds to the BUFF 42Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 2
OPP 42
-1
14.6%
Camden Orth run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUFF 43Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
14.0%
Jackson Kleather punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22INT
12 plays · 41 yds · 3:4815% → 8%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
14.5%
pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+17
14.1%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 17 yds to the BUFF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
15.1%
CJ Ogbonna pass incomplete to Cole Harrity, broken up by Darius LorfilsSimilar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
14.8%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 9 yds to the BUFF 44Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
16.6%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the BUFF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
16.9%
CJ Ogbonna pass intercepted Bowling Green Penalty, off-side (Evan Branch-Haynes) to the BGSU 49Similar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 5
OPP 49
+5
18.4%
CJ Ogbonna run for 5 yds to the BGSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
18.1%
CJ Ogbonna pass complete to Jacqez Barksdale for 1 yd to the BGSU 43Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+6
17.6%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 6 yds to the BGSU 37Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 3
OPP 37
-5
18.3%
Buffalo Penalty, false start (Zion Carter) to the BGSU 42Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+1
16.9%
CJ Ogbonna pass complete to Jacqez Barksdale for 1 yd to the BGSU 41Similar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
8.0%
CJ Ogbonna pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:2492% → 98%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
7.6%
Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the BGSU 38Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-10
7.3%
Bowling Green Penalty, Offensive holding (Levi Gazarek) to the BGSU 28Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+1
8.2%
Ta'ron Keith run for 1 yd to the BGSU 29Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+2
8.5%
Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the BGSU 31Similar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
2.0%
Jackson Kleather punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:112% → 2%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
2.3%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Andrew Schnackenberg, broken up by Cashius HowellSimilar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
2.2%
Cole Snyder pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25Uncategorized
1 play · -18 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
1.8%
Bowling Green Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Chace Davis) to the BUFF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:23
Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 3 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)
-13.7
TD · Q2 2:20
PaSean Wimberly 18 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Alan Anaya Kick)
-13.7
TD · Q3 3:02
CJ Ogbonna pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 24 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
+11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com