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TOL

Toledo 13 at Ball State 6

BALL
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:29 · Lucas Borrow punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TOL 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 8Pregame prior−39.5Home team on offense+0.2Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q4 10:23: Luke Pawlak 27 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +9.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 4:56: Jackson Courville 26 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +16.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:35: Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 32 yds to the BALL 40 for a 1ST down — TOL win probability +7.7 pts (now 54%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:31: Peny Boone run for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK) — TOL win probability +32.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:45: Timeout Ball State, clock 00:45 — TOL win probability +7.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 9TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:29BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:16TOL 4th & 4 at BALL 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    81.4%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:08TOL 4th & 7 at BALL 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    79.5%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:56BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 26, down 3
    Close callPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:06BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:35TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 42, up 3
    Close callPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:17BALL 4th & 9 at TOL 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−5.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:51TOL 4th & 1 at BALL 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    71.0%−2.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:26BALL 4th & 16 at TOL 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    31.3%
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:00TOL 4th & 8 at BALL 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.0%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    67.5%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:36BALL 4th & 8 at TOL 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−0.4
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:27TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−2.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:27TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−2.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:57BALL 4th & 12 at TOL 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    41.5%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:23TOL 4th & 7 at BALL 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−20.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:56BALL 4th & 5 at TOL 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−8.7
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−21.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:54BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q4 1:31TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.3 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%−1.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:1810% → 11%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
9.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the BALL 28Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
10.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the BALL 33Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
10.2%
Kiael Kelly run for 3 yds to the BALL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
10.5%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Nick PresleySimilar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
10.7%
Kiael Kelly run for 6 yds to the BALL 42Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+2
10.9%
Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the BALL 44Similar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
11.2%
Lucas Borrow punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TOL 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2FG
19 plays · 87 yds · 7:1189% → 86%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
11.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 5 yds to the TOL 11Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+2
11.4%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the TOL 13Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+4
11.6%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the TOL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
11.7%
Peny Boone run for 9 yds to the TOL 26Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+5
11.8%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the TOL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
12.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 8 yds to the TOL 39Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 2
OWN 39
-10
12.2%
(08:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Stuart,Jacquez rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TOL46 (King,Kyle; Malry,Aljareek) PENALTY TOL Holding (Long,Tyler) 10 yards from TOL39 to TOL29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+31
12.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 31 yds to the BALL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
12.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 6 yds to the BALL 34Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+10
12.6%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass complete short right to Zsiros,Thomas for 8 yards to the BSU26 (Riley,Jordan; Baldwin,Thailand) PENALTY BSU Holding (Harmon,Jahmad) 10 yards from BSU34 to BSU24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
12.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the BALL 27Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+9
13.1%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the BALL 18Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
13.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+8
13.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 8 yds to the BALL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
13.6%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the BALL 7Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
13.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Anthony TorresSimilar
Q1 4:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
14.0%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Eric Holley IIISimilar
Q1 4:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+26
14.0%
Luke Pawlak 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5714% → 15%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
14.0%
Rico Barfield run for 3 yds to the BALL 21Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
14.3%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Tanner Koziol for no gain to the BALL 21Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+5
14.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the BALL 26Similar
Q1 1:56
4TH & 2
OWN 26
+28
14.5%
Lucas Borrow punt for 41 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 28 yds to the BALL 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:1986% → 85%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
14.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 10 yds to the BALL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
14.3%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the BALL 24Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+4
14.4%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the BALL 20Similar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+4
14.8%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the BALL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
14.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Larry StephensSimilar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+8
14.7%
Peny Boone run for 8 yds to the BALL 8 Peny Boone fumbled, recovered by BALL Thailand BaldwinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5416% → 16%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
15.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the BALL 7Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+4
15.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the BALL 11Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 7
OWN 11
0
15.8%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qian MagwoodSimilar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
15.7%
Lucas Borrow punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TOL 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2384% → 83%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
15.9%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the TOL 33Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+9
16.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the TOL 42Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
16.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the TOL 42Similar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
17.0%
Emilio Duran punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7FG
18 plays · 63 yds · 8:1818% → 25%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
17.6%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Mucciolo,Jon) 5 yards from BSU26 to BSU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+11
17.5%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 11 yds to the BALL 32Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+3
17.8%
Kiael Kelly run for 3 yds to the BALL 35Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
17.9%
Charlie Spegal run for 2 yds to the BALL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
18.3%
Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the BALL 39Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+10
19.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 10 yds to the BALL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
19.8%
(09:06) Shotgun Kelly,Kiael sacked for loss of 9 yards to the BSU40 (Bolden,Daniel) PENALTY TOL Tripping (Bolden,Daniel) 15 yards from BSU49 to TOL36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
20.2%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
20.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 8 yds to the TOL 28Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+2
20.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the TOL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
21.2%
Kiael Kelly run for 6 yds to the TOL 20Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+8
21.6%
Kiael Kelly run for 8 yds to the TOL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
22.1%
(06:08) Shotgun Kelly,Kiael rush left for 1 yard gain to the TOL11 (Bolden,Daniel) PENALTY BSU Holding (Stewart,Corey) 10 yards from TOL12 to TOL22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 20
OPP 22
+7
22.1%
Kiael Kelly run for 7 yds to the TOL 15Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+4
22.6%
Kiael Kelly run for 4 yds to the TOL 11Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
22.3%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+28
25.4%
Jackson Courville 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:0978% → 77%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
22.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the TOL 42Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
21.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the TOL 43Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
21.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 5 yds to the TOL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
21.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
21.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the TOL 47Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+10
23.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 10 yds to the BALL 43Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+5
22.6%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the BALL 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:1829% → 26%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 11
OWN 48
+14
28.6%
Kiael Kelly run for 14 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
29.6%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Rico BarfieldSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
29.7%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 1 yd to the TOL 39Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 11
OPP 39
0
28.5%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Malcolm GillieSimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 11
OPP 39
-5
27.0%
PENALTY BSU Delay Of Game (Kelly,Kiael) 5 yards from TOL39 to TOL44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 16
OPP 44
0
26.4%
Lucas Borrow punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
25.5%
Peny Boone run for 6 yds to the TOL 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11DOWNS
11 plays · 26 yds · 3:4775% → 72%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
24.8%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 39Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
24.5%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the TOL 43Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+6
24.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 6 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
24.3%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the BALL 46Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
24.2%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the BALL 42Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
24.8%
Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the BALL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
25.5%
Willie Shaw III run for 2 yds to the BALL 37Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
25.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jaden DottinSimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
26.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
28.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:1332% → 36%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 11
OWN 37
+2
32.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the BALL 39Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
33.5%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Maximus WebsterSimilar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+11
32.3%
Kiael Kelly run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
50
+12
36.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 12 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
37.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the TOL 34Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+2
39.0%
Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the TOL 36Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
37.8%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qian MagwoodSimilar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
35.7%
Lucas Borrow punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0067% → 64%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
32.6%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 4Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+1
33.2%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the TOL 5Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 7
OWN 5
0
34.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Anthony TorresSimilar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 7
OWN 5
0
36.1%
Emilio Duran punt for 48 yds , Nick Munson returns for no gain to the BALL 47Similar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 7
OWN 5
0
36.1%
Emilio Duran punt for 48 yds , Nick Munson returns for no gain to the BALL 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:2240% → 38%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
39.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 7
50
+14
40.7%
Kiael Kelly run for 14 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
41.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the TOL 38Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+1
41.3%
Kiael Kelly run for 1 yd to the TOL 39Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+6
39.5%
Kiael Kelly run for 6 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 7
OPP 33
-5
39.9%
PENALTY BSU Delay Of Game (Kelly,Kiael) 5 yards from TOL33 to TOL38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 12
OPP 38
0
38.1%
Lucas Borrow punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the TOL 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15FG
21 plays · 83 yds · 7:3464% → 73%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
36.2%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+8
36.7%
Willie Shaw III run for 8 yds to the TOL 16Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+6
37.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 6 yds to the TOL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
36.4%
Willie Shaw III run for 6 yds to the TOL 28Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
35.6%
Willie Shaw III run for no gain to the TOL 28Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 4
OWN 28
-10
37.6%
(01:06) Shotgun Finn,Dequan rush right for 9 yards gain to the TOL37, out of bounds at TOL37 PENALTY TOL Holding (Long,Tyler) 10 yards from TOL28 to TOL18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+18
39.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 18 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
36.4%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the TOL 36Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
37.5%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the TOL 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+21
34.9%
Peny Boone run for 21 yds to the BALL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
33.1%
(14:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Boone,Peny rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BSU32 (King,Kyle; Makszin,James) PENALTY TOL Illegal Formation (Rosi,Nick) 5 yards from BSU35 to BSU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+9
35.8%
Willie Shaw III run for 9 yds to the BALL 31Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+3
32.6%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the BALL 28Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+4
34.8%
Willie Shaw III run for 4 yds to the BALL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
33.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
33.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Willie Shaw III for 5 yds to the BALL 19Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+7
35.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 7 yds to the BALL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
34.3%
Willie Shaw III run for 2 yds to the BALL 10Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+1
34.6%
Willie Shaw III run for 1 yd to the BALL 9Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
37.0%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
27.3%
Luke Pawlak 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 5:1532% → 55%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the BALL 27Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
33.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the BALL 29Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+28
32.5%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 28 yds to the TOL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
39.2%
Rico Barfield run for 2 yds to the TOL 41Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+16
39.6%
(08:04) Shotgun Kelly,Kiael rush middle for 0 yards to the TOL41 (Poynter,Martez) PENALTY TOL UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Poynter,Martez) 16 yards from TOL41 to TOL25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
42.2%
Kiael Kelly run for 4 yds to the TOL 21Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+7
41.3%
Kiael Kelly run for 7 yds to the TOL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
41.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the TOL 13Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
42.2%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+4
38.5%
Kiael Kelly run for 4 yds to the TOL 9Similar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
54.9%
Jackson Courville 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 3:0454% → 92%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+32
45.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 32 yds to the BALL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
40.9%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the BALL 35Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+9
39.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 9 yds to the BALL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
39.2%
Peny Boone run for 13 yds to the BALL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
39.8%
Peny Boone run for 10 yds to the BALL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
7.6%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18INT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:2416% → 12%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
15.5%
Rico Barfield run for 2 yds to the BALL 22Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
14.5%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Rico BarfieldSimilar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
13.1%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Malcolm GillieSimilar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
12.1%
Kiael Kelly pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19END OF GAME
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:4495% → 96%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+39
4.6%
Peny Boone run for 39 yds to the BALL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
4.3%
Kneel down by Toledo at BSU10 for loss of 4 yards.Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
4.3%
Kneel down by Toledo at BSU14 for loss of 4 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
-3
4.0%
Kneel down by Toledo at BSU17 for loss of 3 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:31
Peny Boone run for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)
-32.2
FG · Q4 4:56
Jackson Courville 26 yd FG GOOD
+16.4
FG · Q4 10:23
Luke Pawlak 27 yd FG GOOD
-9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com