2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Tommy Ulatowski run for 8 yds to the KENT 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:35: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 25 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +1.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:20: Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 42 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK) — KENT win probability +3.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:05: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 30 yds for a TD — OHIO win probability +4.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:13: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 22 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +4.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:39: Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 5KENT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 13:57OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snapGo for it93.5%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.6%average punt
- Q1 10:43KENT 4th & 18 at KENT 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.1%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q1 6:11OHIO 4th & 12 at KENT 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snapGo for it91.4%−0.123% to convertField goal91.3%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call91.4%average punt
- Q1 0:51KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snapGo for it10.2%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.4%average punt
- Q2 7:13OHIO 4th & 10 at midfield, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snapGo for it85.7%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.9%average punt
- Q2 4:54KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snapGo for it14.7%−0.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.6%average punt
- Q2 2:30KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snapGo for it9.8%−0.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.4%average punt
- Q3 12:18KENT 4th & 10 at OHIO 19, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.3% before the snapGo for it6.8%−0.527% to convertField goalTheir call7.3%77% to makePunt4.8%−2.5average punt
- Q3 3:57KENT 4th & 7 at KENT 28, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q4 9:57KENT 4th & 4 at OHIO 10, down 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%44% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.188% to makePunt-0.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 5:34OHIO 4th & 1 at KENT 1, up 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%59% to convertField goal99.5%−0.294% to makePunt99.0%−0.6average punt
- Q4 4:12KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 9, down 25Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:51OHIO 4th & 3 at KENT 43, up 25Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%52% to convertField goal99.7%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call99.7%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6KENT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 13:35OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.7%97% to makeGo for two90.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:20KENT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.7%97% to makeGo for two11.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:05OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.6%97% to makeGo for two88.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:37OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.8%97% to makeGo for two92.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:13OHIO Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.6%97% to makeGo for two95.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:39OHIO Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:26OHIO Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:57KENT Touchdown, down 26 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.4%−0.197% to makeGo for two0.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOHIODrive 1PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0396% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 3:144% → 5%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
96.1%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Jameel Gardner Jr. for 2 yds to the KENT 44Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+16
96.1%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Justin Holmes for 16 yds to the OHIO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
96.1%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Justin Holmes for 1 yd to the OHIO 44Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-9
96.1%
Michael Alaimo sacked by Keye Thompson for a loss of 9 yards to the KENT 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3PUNT11 plays · 34 yds · 4:3296% → 94%
KENTDrive 4PUNT11 plays · 26 yds · 5:206% → 7%
Q1 6:11
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+12
94.4%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 12 yds to the KENT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
94.3%
Michael Alaimo sacked by Bradley Weaver for a loss of 3 yards to the KENT 25Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 13
OWN 25
-1
94.4%
Michael Alaimo sacked by Shane Bonner and Bryce Houston for a loss of 1 yard to the KENT 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5TD6 plays · 55 yds · 2:1693% → 95%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+19
92.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 19 yds to the KENT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
93.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 7 yds to the KENT 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+9
93.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 9 yds to the KENT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
94.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 25 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6TD7 plays · 77 yds · 2:096% → 10%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
93.8%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 14 yds to the KENT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
93.6%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Luke Floriea for 5 yds to the KENT 42Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+6
93.6%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 6 yds to the KENT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
90.1%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 42 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7PUNT11 plays · 25 yds · 4:0792% → 90%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
91.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 7 yds to the OHIO 27Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
91.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 9 yds to the OHIO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
91.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 4 yds to the OHIO 42Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+8
91.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 10
50
0
89.7%
Jack Wilson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Luke Floriea at the KENT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 2:1912% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9TD2 plays · 41 yds · 0:4990% → 94%
KENTDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:277% → 7%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.6%
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 9 yds to the KENT 34Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-3
93.0%
Michael Alaimo sacked by Rayyan Buell for a loss of 3 yards to the KENT 25Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
93.2%
Charlie Durkin punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tyler Walton at the OHIO 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11TD6 plays · 57 yds · 1:5394% → 95%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
94.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Bryce Butler for 4 yds to the OHIO 47Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+15
94.0%
ROURKE, Kurtis pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WALTON, Tyler thrown to the KSU34. PENALTY KSU Pass Interference on MILLER, D.J. enforced 15 yards to the KSU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+32
94.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 32 yds to the KENT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12END OF HALF4 plays · -11 yds · 0:314% → 6%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
95.7%
Michael Alaimo sacked by Bradley Weaver for a loss of 1 yard to the KENT 37Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 37
-10
95.7%
Michael Alaimo sacked by Rodney Mathews and Shane Bonner for a loss of 10 yards to the KENT 27Similar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
94.2%
ALAIMO, Michael pass to the right incomplete intended for FLORIEA, Luke thrown to the KSU45; QB hurried by BUELL, Rayyan. PENALTY OHI Roughing the Passer on WATKINS, Vonnie enforced 15 yards from the KSU39 to the OHI46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13FG8 plays · 42 yds · 2:346% → 7%
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+15
93.7%
GARCIA, Gavin rush to the left for a loss of 6 yards to the OHI40 (THOMPSON, Keye). PENALTY OHI Face mask on HENDERSON, Bralen enforced 15 yards from the OHI34 to the OHI19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14TD8 plays · 90 yds · 2:5993% → 98%
Q3 11:19
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+50
92.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Foster for 50 yds to the KENT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
93.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Foster for 9 yds to the KENT 26Similar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
97.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 22 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15INT2 plays · -1 yds · 0:384% → 4%
OHIODrive 16TD6 plays · 31 yds · 2:5698% → 99%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
97.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 13 yds to the KENT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 1:322% → 2%
OHIODrive 18TD14 plays · 69 yds · 5:3199% → 100%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
99.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 14 yds to the OHIO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:13
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+15
99.6%
ROURKE, Kurtis pass deep to the right intercepted by MILLER, D.J. at the KSU7 intended for CROSS, Miles. Miller return for 0 yards to the KSU7, End of Play. PENALTY KSU Pass Interference on MILLER, D.J. enforced 15 yards to the KSU20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+19
99.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 19 yds to the KENT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19TD11 plays · 76 yds · 3:230% → 1%
Q4 9:57
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+10
99.3%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 10 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20DOWNS8 plays · 72 yds · 4:23100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q4 4:12
4TH & 4
OWN 9
0
99.8%
Josh Smith punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyler Walton at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER4 plays · 21 yds · 1:510% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:13
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 22 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
+4.6
TD · Q2 4:05
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 30 yds for a TD
+4.3
TD · Q2 11:20
Michael Alaimo pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 42 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)
-3.2