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CMU

Central Michigan 13 at Buffalo 37

BUF
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:27 · Jake Walrath punt for 36 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Home team on offense+30.8Score differential+26.4Garbage-time factor+9.2Blowout margin+13.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7Pregame prior−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:57: Jesse Prewitt III 2 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Tristan Mattson Kick) — CMU win probability +6.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 5:00: Alex McNulty 44 Yd Field Goal — BUF win probability +4.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:48: Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +12.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:16: Devin Grant 58 Yd Interception Return (Alex McNulty Kick) — BUF win probability +13.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:19: Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +5.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 7 of 10CMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:04BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:50CMU 4th & 13 at CMU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:04BUF 4th & 1 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.3%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:10BUF 4th & 1 at CMU 1, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.1%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−3.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00CMU 4th & 1 at BUF 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−2.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:26BUF 4th & 4 at CMU 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:00BUF 4th & 10 at CMU 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:06CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 48, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.2%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00BUF 4th & 7 at CMU 30, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:21CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 47, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:27CMU 4th & 11 at CMU 24, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:32BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 46, up 30
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:26CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 38, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:56BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 22, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:34CMU 4th & 14 at CMU 45, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:25BUF 4th & 6 at CMU 6, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:59BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 37, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:15BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:57CMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:48BUF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:16BUF Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:19BUF Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:43CMU Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5147% → 47%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
47.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 1 yd to the BUFF 24Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+5
47.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the BUFF 29Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
47.3%
Similar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
47.3%
Anthony Venneri punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 0:3853% → 51%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
47.5%
Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the CMU 26Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
47.6%
pass incomplete to Chris ParkerSimilar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 8
OWN 26
-29
48.7%
Devin Grant 29 Yd Interception Return (Alex McNulty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 3:2551% → 49%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.6%
Myles Bailey run for 2 yds to the CMU 27Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
49.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 3 yds to the CMU 30Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
49.3%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 11 yds to the CMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
49.3%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the CMU 44 Central Michigan Penalty, Offensive holding (Brayden Swartout) to the CMU 34Similar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 17
OWN 34
+4
49.9%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the CMU 38Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 13
OWN 38
0
50.2%
Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 13
OWN 38
0
50.7%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
51.0%
Jake Walrath punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:3951% → 52%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
50.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 11 yds to the BUFF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
51.8%
Cole Harrity run for 6 yds to the BUFF 47Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
52.2%
pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-5
51.9%
Buffalo Penalty, false start (Tyler Doty) to the BUFF 42Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+8
51.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 1
50
0
51.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
50
+12
50.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 12 yds Jase Bauer fumbled, recovered by BUFF Jaylon BassSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:4452% → 55%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
52.4%
Victor Snow run for 3 yds to the BUFF 41Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
53.0%
CJ Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the BUFF 45Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+26
53.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 26 yds to the CMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
54.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Chance Morrow for 10 yds to the CMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
54.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 15 yds to the CMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
54.7%
Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
54.9%
pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q1 4:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
54.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the CMU 1Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
55.1%
Alex McNulty 19 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 7:1346% → 50%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.4%
Myles Bailey run for 2 yds to the CMU 27Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
54.5%
Central Michigan Penalty, false start (Dominic Serapiglia III) to the CMU 22Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
54.8%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Mitchel Collier, broken up by Devin GrantSimilar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+13
55.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 13 yds to the CMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
55.3%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the CMU 36Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+10
55.6%
Marion Lukes run for 10 yds to the CMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
55.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 7 yds to the BUFF 47Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
54.9%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+2
55.4%
Myles Bailey run for 2 yds to the BUFF 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
56.1%
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd to the BUFF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
55.5%
Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
56.4%
pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt IIISimilar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+19
56.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 19 yds to the BUFF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
55.7%
pass incomplete to Chris ParkerSimilar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-1
55.9%
Myles Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUFF 26Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+13
57.3%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Chris Parker for 13 yds to the BUFF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
56.2%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the BUFF 12Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+10
56.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 10 yds to the BUFF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.0%
Jesse Prewitt III 2 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Tristan Mattson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 5:4853% → 61%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
52.6%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the BUFF 25Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+22
52.5%
Cole Snyder run for 22 yds to the BUFF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
54.8%
Cole Snyder sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the BUFF 46Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+7
54.0%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 7 yds to the CMU 47Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
55.0%
pass incomplete to Jacqez BarksdaleSimilar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 4
OPP 47
+10
53.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 10 yds to the CMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
56.7%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the CMU 35Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+6
57.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 6 yds to the CMU 29Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+3
56.6%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the CMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
57.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cameron Ball for 2 yds to the CMU 24Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-2
58.1%
Cole Snyder sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the CMU 26Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
57.3%
pass incomplete to Cole Harrity Buffalo Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Mike Washington) to the CMU 26Similar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+44
61.3%
Alex McNulty 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3841% → 40%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
59.0%
Myles Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMU 24Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
59.5%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
60.5%
Jase Bauer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:2864% → 77%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
64.2%
Cole Snyder run for 1 yd to the CMU 42Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+17
64.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 17 yds to the CMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
65.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the CMU 22Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-5
65.0%
Buffalo Penalty, false start (Darrell Harding Jr.) to the CMU 27Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+24
65.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 24 yds to the CMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:4227% → 27%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.9%
Jase Bauer run for 6 yds to the CMU 31Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
72.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Chris Parker for 10 yds to the CMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
72.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 7 yds to the CMU 48Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
71.4%
pass incomplete to Decorion TempleSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
71.5%
pass incomplete to Tyson DavisSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
73.1%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Chris Parker, broken up by Jayden OliverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:0178% → 79%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
77.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Chance Morrow for 15 yds to the CMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
78.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 4 yds to the CMU 29Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
78.1%
pass incomplete to Mike WashingtonSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 6
OPP 29
-5
77.3%
Buffalo Penalty, false start (Chance Morrow) to the CMU 34Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+4
77.1%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the CMU 30Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+48
78.9%
Alex McNulty 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4423% → 10%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
76.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Chris Parker for 15 yds to the CMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
76.2%
Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the CMU 41Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+4
76.3%
Myles Bailey run for 4 yds to the CMU 45 Myles Bailey fumbled, recovered by CMUSimilar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-58
89.8%
Devin Grant 58 Yd Interception Return (Alex McNulty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 22 yds · 1:5510% → 8%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
90.2%
Central Michigan Penalty, false start (Jesse Prewitt III) to the CMU 20Similar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
90.3%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 22Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
90.6%
pass incomplete to Stephan Bracey Jr.Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+23
90.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 23 yds to the CMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
90.6%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 2 yds to the CMU 47Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
91.4%
pass incomplete to Jacob KaminskiSimilar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
91.5%
pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt IIISimilar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
91.6%
pass incomplete to Stephan Bracey Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:5693% → 99%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
92.6%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+29
92.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 29 yds to the CMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
93.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 9 yds to the CMU 9Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+8
93.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 8 yds to the CMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
93.4%
Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:521% → 1%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III Central Michigan Penalty, illegal shift (Tristan Mattson) to the CMU 20Similar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
98.8%
Sam Hicks run for 1 yd to the CMU 21Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+3
98.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 3 yds to the CMU 24Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
98.9%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
99.0%
Jake Walrath punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4399% → 99%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.2%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Chance Morrow, broken up by Da'Raun McKinneySimilar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for 6 yds to the BUFF 46Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
99.3%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
99.3%
Anthony Venneri punt for 48 yds , Javorian Wimberly returns for no gain to the CMU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:591% → 1%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+26
99.1%
Myles Bailey run for 16 yds to the CMU 21 Buffalo Penalty, Defensive holding (Cornell Evans) to the CMU 31Similar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
99.1%
Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the CMU 32 Myles Bailey fumbled, recovered by CMU Davis HeinzenSimilar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+7
99.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 7 yds to the CMU 39Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-1
98.8%
Jase Bauer sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the CMU 38Similar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+10
98.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 10 yds to the CMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.1%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
99.1%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 6 yds to the BUFF 46Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 19
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Jake Walrath punt for 46 ydsSimilar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 4
OPP 46
-15
99.5%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Marion Lukes Central Michigan Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kenny Brewer III) to the CMU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:19100% → 99%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 4 yds to the BUFF 19Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+3
99.5%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the BUFF 22Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
99.4%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
99.4%
Anthony Venneri punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
99.6%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes Central Michigan Penalty, Offensive holding (Dominic Serapiglia III) to the CMU 39Similar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+6
99.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Thomas Pannunzio for 6 yds to the CMU 45Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 14
OWN 45
0
99.7%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Chris Parker, broken up by Jayden OliverSimilar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 14
OWN 45
0
99.7%
pass incomplete to Tyson DavisSimilar
Q3 0:34
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
99.7%
Jake Walrath punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21MISSED FG
17 plays · 78 yds · 9:03100% → 100%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
99.6%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the BUFF 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+6
99.6%
Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the BUFF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.7%
pass incomplete to Boobie CurrySimilar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-5
99.7%
Buffalo Penalty, false start (Trevor Brock) to the BUFF 22Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+18
99.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 18 yds to the BUFF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.7%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the BUFF 41Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+10
99.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 10 yds to the CMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
99.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 13 yds to the CMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.8%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Boobie Curry, broken up by Da'Raun McKinneySimilar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+14
99.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 14 yds to the CMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
99.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the CMU 16Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 4
OPP 16
-8
99.8%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 8 yards to the CMU 24Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 12
OPP 24
+16
99.9%
Mike Washington run for 16 yds to the CMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
99.9%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMU 10Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
99.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 4 yds to the CMU 6Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q4 6:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
99.9%
Alex McNulty 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:380% → 1%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the CMU 21Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+21
99.9%
Jase Bauer run for 21 yds to the CMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
99.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 15 yds to the BUFF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Buffalo Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Mitchel Collier) to the BUFF 43Similar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
99.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 8 yds to the BUFF 35Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+2
99.9%
Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the BUFF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
99.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Decorion Temple for 14 yds to the BUFF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
99.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 14 yds to the BUFF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.9%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt III Central Michigan Penalty, Offensive holding (Davis Heinzen) to the CMU 35Similar
Q4 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.3%
Tyson Davis 5 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:4399% → 100%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUFF 40Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-4
99.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the BUFF 36Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+1
99.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUFF 37Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
99.5%
Anthony Venneri punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24Uncategorized
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:421% → 1%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
99.4%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 20 yds to the CMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Thomas Pannunzio for 5 yds to the BUFF 48Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+7
99.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Stephan Bracey Jr. for 7 yds to the BUFF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
99.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Stephan Bracey Jr. for 13 yds to the BUFF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:16
Devin Grant 58 Yd Interception Return (Alex McNulty Kick)
+13.5
TD · Q2 1:48
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
+12.1
TD · Q2 10:57
Jesse Prewitt III 2 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Tristan Mattson Kick)
-6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com