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NIU

Northern Illinois 33 at Toledo 35

TOL
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:10 · Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the NIU 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Pregame prior+28.4Home team on offense+0.5Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:20: Nate Valcarcel 50 Yd Fumble Return (Kanon Woodill Kick) — NIU win probability +8.3 pts (now 21%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:28: Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK) — TOL win probability +11.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:17: Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 68 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK) — TOL win probability +8.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:14: Jalen Johnson 24 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — NIU win probability +9.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:24: Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Christion Carter for 12 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK) — NIU win probability +29.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 8NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:46NIU 4th & 10 at TOL 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    19.9%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:10TOL 4th & 2 at NIU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    78.9%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:54NIU 4th & 13 at NIU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TOL 4th & 5 at NIU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    77.1%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:18NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:19TOL 4th & 14 at NIU 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    80.0%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:43TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−2.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:04NIU 4th & 2 at TOL 15, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.5%−0.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−5.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:16TOL 4th & 2 at NIU 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    76.0%−1.0
    81% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−8.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:35NIU 4th & 15 at TOL 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:41TOL 4th & 7 at NIU 48, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:33NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 4, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:40TOL 4th & 6 at NIU 48, up 9
    Close callPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:44TOL 4th & 6 at NIU 39, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.4 ptsPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    88.3%−0.9
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%−5.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 2:52TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:15NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:38TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:33TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:20NIU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:28TOL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:17TOL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:14NIU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    11.7%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    12.1%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:24NIU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 5:1117% → 19%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
82.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Gavin Williams for 6 yds to the NIU 31Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
82.6%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 3 yds to the NIU 34Similar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
82.6%
Brock Lampe run for 10 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
82.6%
Northern Illinois Penalty, False Start (Antario Brown) to the NIU 39Similar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+11
82.6%
Antario Brown run for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 4
50
+4
82.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 4 yds to the TOL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
82.6%
Antario Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 47Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+1
82.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Antario Brown for 1 yd to the TOL 46Similar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
82.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
81.2%
Tom Foley punt for 42 yds, downed at the TOL 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · 67 yds · 3:3681% → 80%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
81.1%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the TOL 12Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 2
OWN 12
+2
81.1%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+48
81.1%
Peny Boone run for 48 yds to the NIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
81.6%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
81.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the NIU 35Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+5
81.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 5 yds to the NIU 30Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+1
80.2%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the NIU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:1620% → 20%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
79.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 31 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, recovered by NIU Rocky LombardiSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+2
79.8%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NIU 33Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 6
OWN 33
-7
79.9%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by D'Andre Ragin and Judge Culpepper for a loss of 7 yards to the NIU 26Similar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
79.7%
Tom Foley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Junior Vandeross III at the TOL 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
3 plays · 68 yds · 1:0279% → 83%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
79.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 12 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
79.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 14 yds to the NIU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
82.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 42 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 1:3118% → 24%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+80
81.8%
Antario Brown run for 80 yds to the TOL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
80.5%
Gavin Williams run for 4 yds to the TOL 1Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.5%
Rocky Lombardi run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:3779% → 83%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
78.6%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+21
78.7%
Peny Boone run for 21 yds to the NIU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
79.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the NIU 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+2
79.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the NIU 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 39
-10
79.0%
Toledo Penalty, Offensive Holding (Vinny Sciury) to the NIU 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+6
78.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 6 yds to the NIU 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+28
78.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 28 yds fumbled, recovered by TOL for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
82.5%
Dequan Finn run for 13 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:1519% → 18%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
81.1%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Darius Alexander for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 24Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+2
81.2%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NIU 26Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
81.6%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the NIU 26Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
81.8%
Tom Foley punt for 64 yds, downed at the TOL 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:5981% → 81%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+46
81.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 46 yds to the NIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
82.4%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the NIU 43Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+7
82.3%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the NIU 36Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+4
82.0%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the NIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
82.5%
FINN, Dequan scrambles to the left for no gain to the NIU32, out of bounds. PENALTY TOL Holding on SCHWIEBERT, Garrett enforced 10 yards from the NIU32 to the NIU42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 20
OPP 42
0
81.9%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 20
OPP 42
-1
81.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 43Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 21
OPP 43
+7
81.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 7 yds to the NIU 36Similar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 14
OPP 36
0
80.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 16 yds, fair catch by Kacper Rutkiewicz at the NIU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9FUMBLE
7 plays · 63 yds · 3:5320% → 23%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
80.3%
Rocky Lombardi run for 13 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
79.4%
Trayvon Rudolph run for a loss of 5 yards to the NIU 43Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+24
80.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Billy Dozier for 24 yds to the TOL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
78.2%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the TOL 33Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+26
78.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Brock Lampe for 26 yds to the TOL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
77.9%
Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the TOL 3Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
76.9%
Brock Lampe run for 1 yd to the TOL 2 Brock Lampe fumbled, recovered by TOL Nate BauerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:4380% → 79%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
80.4%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 4Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+13
80.2%
Peny Boone run for 13 yds to the TOL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
80.9%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the TOL 21Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-5
80.8%
Toledo Penalty, False Start (Larry Stephens) to the TOL 16Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+2
80.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the TOL 18Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
79.5%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
78.9%
Emilio Duran punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kacper Rutkiewicz at the NIU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4320% → 20%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
79.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 7 yds to the NIU 42Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-5
78.2%
Northern Illinois Penalty, False Start (Christion Carter) to the NIU 37Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
79.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
80.0%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the NIU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:2082% → 90%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
81.6%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the TOL 38Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+20
82.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 20 yds to the NIU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
83.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 9 yds to the NIU 33Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+7
83.1%
Peny Boone run for 7 yds to the NIU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
83.1%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the NIU 26Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+10
83.1%
Dequan Finn run for 10 yds to the NIU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
83.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the NIU 7Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+7
90.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 3:2212% → 15%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
88.4%
Antario Brown run for 15 yds to the NIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
87.9%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the NIU 49Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+28
87.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 28 yds to the TOL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
86.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Johnson for 7 yds to the TOL 16Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+1
86.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 1 yd to the TOL 15Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 2
OPP 15
0
87.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+32
84.8%
Kanon Woodill 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:3987% → 79%
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
87.2%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
87.1%
Dequan Finn run for 15 yds to the TOL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+50
78.8%
Nate Valcarcel 50 Yd Fumble Return (Kanon Woodill Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 5:4877% → 90%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
76.8%
QB Keeper FINN, Dequan rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the TOL20 (GUMBS, George). PENALTY TOL Holding on NEWTON, Jerjuan enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the TOL15 to the TOL8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 17
OWN 8
+17
76.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for 17 yds to the TOL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
77.0%
Northern Illinois Penalty, Targeting on MCGARRELL, Cyrus enforced (15 Yards) to the NIU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
79.5%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the NIU 34Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+10
80.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Connor Walendzak for 10 yds to the NIU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
80.2%
Connor Walendzak run for no gain to the NIU 24Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
80.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 7 yds to the NIU 17Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+1
79.1%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the NIU 16Similar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+3
77.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the NIU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
80.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the NIU 10Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+4
80.2%
Connor Walendzak run for 4 yds to the NIU 6Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+4
79.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Dalton Andrews for 4 yds to the NIU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.1%
Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:5312% → 12%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
87.6%
Antario Brown run for 5 yds to the NIU 35Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
87.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Antario Brown for 6 yds to the NIU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
86.7%
Antario Brown run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
50
0
85.4%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
50
+2
86.1%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the TOL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+21
85.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 21 yds to the TOL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
84.5%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the TOL 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
85.0%
Billy Dozier run for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 32
0
87.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:35
4TH & 15
OPP 32
+49
87.6%
Kanon Woodill 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
1 play · 68 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
96.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 68 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:596% → 16%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
93.9%
Antario Brown run for 8 yds to the NIU 40Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+6
93.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 6 yds to the NIU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
93.7%
Antario Brown run for 15 yds to the TOL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
93.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
93.6%
LOMBARDI, Rocky pass deep to the right incomplete intended for RUDOLPH, Trayvon thrown to the TOL9. PENALTY TOL Pass Interference on DELANCY III, Ronald enforced 15 yards to the TOL24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
84.0%
Jalen Johnson 24 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:2590% → 91%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
89.8%
Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 9
50
+1
89.7%
Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd to the NIU 49Similar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+1
89.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 1 yd to the NIU 48Similar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
90.8%
Emilio Duran punt for 44 yds, downed at the NIU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0810% → 7%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
90.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
90.5%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NIU 4Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 10
OWN 4
0
91.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 10
OWN 4
0
92.8%
Tom Foley punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5393% → 94%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
92.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 8
50
+6
93.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the NIU 44Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-4
94.1%
Peny Boone run for a loss of 4 yards to the NIU 48Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
93.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Kacper Rutkiewicz at the NIU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:165% → 37%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
95.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 6 yds to the NIU 30Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+18
94.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Gavin Williams for 18 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
94.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Davis Patterson for 16 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
93.7%
Rocky Lombardi run for 8 yds to the TOL 28Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+3
92.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 3 yds to the TOL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
92.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 13 yds to the TOL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
63.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Christion Carter for 12 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:2383% → 87%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
83.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the NIU 42Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+1
87.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the NIU 41Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+2
90.8%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the NIU 39Similar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
89.7%
Emilio Duran punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Kacper Rutkiewicz at the NIU 14Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
86.6%
LOMBARDI, Rocky pass deep to the left intercepted by MCNEIL-WARREN, Emmanuel at the TOL49 intended for PATTERSON, Davis. McNeil-Warren return for 0 yards to the TOL49, End of Play, clock 00:00. PENALTY TOL Offsides on HOLT, Deshawn enforced 5 yards from the NIU14 to the NIU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24END OF GAME
7 plays · 41 yds · 0:1018% → 14%
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
81.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 5
OWN 19
+16
85.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 16 yds to the NIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
82.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+7
84.9%
Rocky Lombardi run for 7 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+13
85.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Davis Patterson for 13 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:24
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Christion Carter for 12 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)
-29.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+14.2
TD · Q3 1:28
Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)
+11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com