2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreDSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:33 · Marqui Adams pass complete to NyGhee Lolley for 7 yds to the M-OH 47 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:27: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 34 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:24: Marqui Adams pass complete to EJ Core for 4 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cardoza-Chicas PAT MISSED) — DSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: DSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Graham Nicholson 19 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:20: Keyon Mozee run for 23 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:18: Marqui Adams pass complete to Wade Inge for 10 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cardoza-Chicas KICK) — DSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: DSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2DSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 5:03M-OH 4th & 11 at DSU 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.6%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call97.6%64% to makePunt97.3%−0.4average punt
- Q1 13:19DSU 4th & 4 at DSU 31, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q1 9:33DSU 4th & 2 at DSU 46, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:03DSU 4th & 5 at DSU 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q2 11:31DSU 4th & 9 at DSU 43, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q2 9:48DSU 4th & 21 at DSU 14, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q3 8:24DSU 4th & 4 at DSU 36, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 5:43DSU 4th & 18 at DSU 17, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 1:05M-OH 4th & 1 at DSU 10, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%71% to convertField goal99.7%−0.288% to makePunt99.3%−0.6average punt
- Q4 13:54DSU 4th & 1 at DSU 35, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:42DSU 4th & 6 at M-OH 25, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goal0.1%66% to makePunt-0.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 11:42DSU 4th & 6 at M-OH 25, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goal0.1%66% to makePunt-0.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 1:28DSU 4th & 11 at DSU 44, down 42Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 7DSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 1:07M-OH Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:27M-OH Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:21M-OH Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:24DSU Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call2.5%97% to makeGo for two2.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:20M-OH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:18DSU Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.3%97% to makeGo for two1.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:58M-OH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:27M-OH Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:05M-OH Touchdown, up 41 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartM-OHDrive 1FG8 plays · 24 yds · 2:3498% → 98%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
50
+14
98.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 14 yds to the DSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
98.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 11 yds to the DSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
98.1%
(06:39) No Huddle-Shotgun Gabbert,Brett pass complete deep right to Tracy,Javon for 25 yards to the DSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:35 PENALTY MIA Pass Interference (Tracy,Javon) 15 yards from DSU25 to DSU40. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:361% → 1%
Q1 13:19
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+23
98.7%
Jonathan Cardoza-Chicas punt for 49 yds , Gage Larvadain returns for 23 yds to the M-OH 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3TD3 plays · 57 yds · 1:0299% → 99%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
98.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 6 yds to the M-OH 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 4TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:131% → 2%
Q1 11:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
98.6%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Jordan Hull for 10 yds to the DSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+7
98.4%
Marqui Adams pass complete to NyGhee Lolley for 7 yds to the M-OH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
98.3%
run for 13 yds to the DSU 40 fumbled, recovered by DSU Marqui AdamsSimilar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 23
OWN 40
+10
98.3%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Michael Chris-Ike for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 13
50
+50
98.2%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Wade Inge for 50 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cardoza-Chicas KICK)Similar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
98.2%
Delaware State Penalty, Sideline Inteference (Wade Inge) to the DSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:522% → 2%
Q1 3:03
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
97.7%
Jonathan Cardoza-Chicas punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6TD5 plays · 50 yds · 1:5198% → 98%
DSUDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 4:272% → 3%
Q1 0:01
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+19
97.7%
Marqui Adams pass complete to NyGhee Lolley for 19 yds to the DSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 9
OWN 43
+6
97.3%
Jonathan Cardoza-Chicas punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the M-OH 25 , Cade McDonald returns for 6 yds to the M-OH 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8TD5 plays · 75 yds · 0:0097% → 99%
DSUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 1:332% → 2%
M-OHDrive 10TD7 plays · 55 yds · 2:1898% → 99%
Q2 9:07
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+6
98.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Rashad Amos for 6 yds to the DSU 46Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+9
98.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 9 yds to the DSU 13Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+7
98.2%
PENALTY DSU Personal Foul (Fabian,Geovanny) 7 yards from DSU13 to DSU06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 11TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:471% → 3%
Q2 6:37
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
98.6%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Khyheem Waleed for 7 yds to the DSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
98.6%
Miami (OH) Penalty, Personal Foul (Ty Wise) to the M-OH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
98.3%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Wade Inge for 14 yds to the M-OH 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.1%
Marqui Adams pass complete to EJ Core for 4 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cardoza-Chicas PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12FG13 plays · 63 yds · 1:1898% → 99%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
97.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 18 yds to the DSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
97.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 4 yds to the DSU 43Similar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
97.8%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Gabbert,Brett rush left for 1 yard gain to the DSU35 (Cook,Darren), out of bounds PENALTY MIA Holding (Jados,Will) 10 yards from DSU36 to DSU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+14
97.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 14 yds to the DSU 32Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+6
97.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 6 yds to the DSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
97.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 7 yds to the DSU 19Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+11
97.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 11 yds to the DSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
97.6%
Delaware State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Romell Harris-Freeman) to the DSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13TD3 plays · 65 yds · 0:2599% → 100%
DSUDrive 14TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:560% → 2%
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.7%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun Adams,Marqui rush middle for 0 yards to the DSU25 (Wise,Ty; Washington,Nasir) PENALTY DSU Holding (Wallace,Takai) 10 yards from DSU25 to DSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+73
99.7%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Khyheem Waleed for 73 yds to the M-OH 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
99.7%
PENALTY DSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from MIA05 to MIA10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
98.4%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Wade Inge for 10 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cardoza-Chicas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15TD6 plays · 66 yds · 2:0099% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q3 8:24
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Jonathan Cardoza-Chicas punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17TD3 plays · 74 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+66
99.8%
Jordan Brunson run for 57 yds to the DSU 17 for a 1ST down Delaware State Penalty, Personal Foul (Christian Garrett) to the DSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 1:300% → 0%
M-OHDrive 19DOWNS9 plays · 44 yds · 4:31100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 20DOWNS12 plays · 67 yds · 4:060% → 0%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
99.9%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Myles Morales for 16 yds to the DSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+11
99.9%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Khyheem Waleed for 11 yds to the DSU 35Similar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+34
100.0%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Khyheem Waleed for 34 yds to the M-OH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
99.9%
Delaware State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the M-OH 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21TD12 plays · 77 yds · 7:58100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:27
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 34 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
+1.3
TD · Q2 1:24
Marqui Adams pass complete to EJ Core for 4 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cardoza-Chicas PAT MISSED)
-1.3
TD · Q3 12:18
Marqui Adams pass complete to Wade Inge for 10 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cardoza-Chicas KICK)
-1.3