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WMU

Western Michigan 31 at Toledo 49

TOL
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:59 · Emilio Duran punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Anthony Sambucci at the WMU 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 93Pregame prior+24.9Home team on offense−8.8Score differential−4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Garbage-time factor−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:58: Jalen Buckley 38 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick) — WMU win probability +14.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:53: Jerjuan Newton 20 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Luke Pawlak Kick) — TOL win probability +23.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 2:41: Cooper Rusk 16 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Luke Pawlak Kick) — TOL win probability +13.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:10: CJ Hester 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick) — WMU win probability +26.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:07: Connor Walendzak 1 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick) — TOL win probability +21.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 14:59WMU 4th & 1 at TOL 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%−0.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:22WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:02WMU 4th & 9 at WMU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:17TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:01WMU 4th & 2 at TOL 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:35TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:59TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 40, down 10
    Close callPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:48WMU 4th & 3 at TOL 34, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    45.6%−2.1
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:03WMU 4th & 17 at WMU 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:43TOL 4th & 3 at WMU 19, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−0.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:52WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.2%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:13WMU 4th & 14 at TOL 19, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:00WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:54TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:04TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:03WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:58WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:53TOL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:41TOL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:10WMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:07TOL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:05TOL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:01TOL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 53 yds · 4:598% → 10%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
92.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:59
2ND & 7
50
+6
92.4%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 6 yds to the TOL 44Similar
Q1 14:59
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
92.4%
Treyson Bourguet run for no gain to the TOL 44Similar
Q1 14:59
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
92.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the TOL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
92.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the TOL 40Similar
Q1 14:59
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+12
92.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 12 yds to the TOL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
92.4%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 2 yds to the TOL 26Similar
Q1 14:59
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+4
92.4%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the TOL 22Similar
Q1 14:59
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+6
92.4%
Treyson Bourguet run for 6 yds to the TOL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
92.4%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 12 yds to the TOL 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
92.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the TOL 2Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.3%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2INT
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:1091% → 90%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.5%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 27Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
90.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 10 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
90.6%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the TOL 42Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+12
90.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 12 yds to the WMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
90.7%
BOONE, Peny rush to the right for a gain of 17 yards to the WMU29 (WAHLBERG, Jacob). PENALTY TOL Holding on EZIRIM, CC enforced 10 yards from the WMU46 to the TOL44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 20
OWN 44
-2
90.6%
Willie Shaw III run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 42Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 22
OWN 42
+26
90.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 26 yds to the WMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
90.8%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the WMU 25Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
89.5%
Dequan Finn pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:4811% → 12%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
88.8%
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the WMU 21Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
88.5%
Treyson Bourguet pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:0889% → 90%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
89.0%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the WMU 43Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+24
88.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 24 yds to the WMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
89.1%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-10
89.1%
BOONE, Peny rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the WMU13 (WOFFORD, Aaron;BUSSELL, Dashon). PENALTY TOL Holding on ROGERS, Devan enforced 10 yards from the WMU19 to the WMU29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 20
OPP 29
+23
88.9%
Dequan Finn run for 23 yds to the WMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 6 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:3211% → 11%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
89.5%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the WMU 33Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-5
89.4%
Western Michigan Penalty, False Start (DaShon Bussell) to the WMU 28Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+14
89.6%
Jalen Buckley run for 14 yds to the WMU 42 Jalen Buckley fumbled, recovered by WMU for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
89.2%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the WMU 44Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-2
89.2%
Treyson Bourguet run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 42Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
89.5%
Jack Salopek pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
88.6%
Carson Voss punt for 20 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 2:1889% → 91%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
89.2%
Peny Boone run for 10 yds to the TOL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
89.4%
Peny Boone run for 14 yds to the WMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
89.5%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the WMU 37Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+3
89.5%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the WMU 34Similar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+34
90.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 34 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0210% → 10%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.1%
Treyson Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
90.3%
Treyson Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.2%
Treyson Bourguet run for 1 yd to the WMU 26Similar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
90.3%
Carson Voss punt for 55 yds, downed at the TOL 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4590% → 89%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
90.1%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
90.1%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 21Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+3
89.9%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the TOL 24Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
89.3%
Emilio Duran punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Anthony Sambucci at the WMU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9DOWNS
14 plays · 59 yds · 5:1611% → 11%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
89.3%
Jalen Buckley run for 5 yds to the WMU 44Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+14
89.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 14 yds to the TOL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
88.9%
Treyson Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
89.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 11 yds to the TOL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
88.6%
Jalen Buckley run for 15 yds to the TOL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
88.5%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the TOL 15Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+5
88.5%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 5 yds to the TOL 10Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+7
88.9%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 7 yds to the TOL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
87.3%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for no gain to the TOL 3Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
87.3%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the TOL 1Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
88.2%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 2Similar
Q2 7:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
88.7%
Treyson Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:5889% → 84%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+11
89.4%
Peny Boone run for 11 yds to the TOL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
89.4%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the TOL 16Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 7
OWN 16
-4
89.4%
Willie Shaw III run for a loss of 4 yards to the TOL 12Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+16
83.7%
Keni-H Lovely 16 Yd Fumble Return (Palmer Domschke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2884% → 83%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.4%
Willie Shaw III run for 1 yd to the TOL 26Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
84.3%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
83.8%
Dequan Finn run for no gain to the TOL 26Similar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
82.7%
Emilio Duran punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Anthony Sambucci at the WMU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:3720% → 35%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
80.5%
Jamal Hailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 38Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+5
81.0%
Toledo Penalty, Offsides (Jeremiah Peters) to the WMU 43Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+3
79.9%
Jamal Hailey run for 3 yds to the WMU 46Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+9
79.9%
Treyson Bourguet run for 9 yds to the TOL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
79.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 4 yds to the TOL 41Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+3
79.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the TOL 38Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+38
65.2%
Jalen Buckley 38 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:2171% → 71%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.0%
Peny Boone run for 8 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
72.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 3 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
71.4%
Dequan Finn pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14FG
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:3434% → 38%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
50
+47
65.7%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 47 yds to the TOL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
64.1%
Western Michigan Penalty, False Start (Michael Shanahan) to the TOL 8Similar
Q2 0:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
64.5%
Treyson Bourguet run for a loss of 10 yards to the TOL 18 Treyson Bourguet fumbled, recovered by WMU Treyson BourguetSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
0
65.3%
Treyson Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
+36
62.4%
Palmer Domschke 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by FINN, Dequan at TOL23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4765% → 63%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
65.0%
Peny Boone run for 8 yds to the TOL 40Similar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
66.2%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:46
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
65.6%
Dequan Finn run for no gain to the TOL 40Similar
Q3 13:59
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
63.2%
Emilio Duran punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Anthony Sambucci at the WMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:1336% → 42%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.8%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the WMU 26Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
64.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 10 yds to the WMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
62.9%
Treyson Bourguet run for 5 yds to the WMU 41Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
62.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the WMU 42Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+23
58.4%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for 8 yds Zahir Abdus-Salaam fumbled, recovered by TOL Nate Bauer for a 1ST down Toledo Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TOL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:3760% → 60%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
59.9%
Peny Boone run for 13 yds to the TOL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
61.6%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the WMU 49Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
62.2%
Willie Shaw III run for 5 yds to the WMU 44Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
59.8%
Willie Shaw III run for no gain to the WMU 44 fumbled, recovered by WMU Boone BonnemaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:2145% → 46%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
55.4%
Toledo Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TOL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
55.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the TOL 39Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+4
55.4%
Treyson Bourguet run for 4 yds to the TOL 35Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+1
55.6%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the TOL 34Similar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 3
OPP 34
0
54.1%
Carson Voss punt for 22 yds, fair catch by Junior Vandeross III at the TOL 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 2:5553% → 71%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
52.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Larry Stephens for 12 yds to the TOL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
52.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
52.7%
Tucker Gleason run for 4 yds to the TOL 28Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+16
51.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 16 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
55.0%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the TOL 44Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+36
46.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 36 yds to the WMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
70.8%
Jerjuan Newton 20 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Luke Pawlak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
62.2%
Treyson Bourguet sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22TD
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:0271% → 83%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
70.7%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the WMU 22Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
70.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+9
68.8%
Tucker Gleason run for 9 yds to the WMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
70.7%
GLEASON, Tucker pass to the right incomplete intended for TORRES, Anthony broken up by BUSSELL, Dashon at the WMU0. PENALTY TOL Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SCIURY, Vinny WMU Pass Interference on BUSSELL, Dashon , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
69.9%
Peny Boone run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMU 16Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 13
OPP 16
0
69.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 13
OPP 16
+16
83.3%
Cooper Rusk 16 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Luke Pawlak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3119% → 49%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.9%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the WMU 28Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
80.5%
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the WMU 28Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
81.8%
BOURGUET, Treyson pass up the middle incomplete intended for HENCE, Austin thrown to the WMU42. PENALTY TOL Holding on MCDONALD JR., Chris enforced 10 yards from the WMU34 to the WMU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+33
78.7%
Jalen Buckley run for 33 yds to the TOL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
75.8%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 1 yd to the TOL 22Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-10
75.8%
BOURGUET, Treyson pass deep up the middle complete for 22 yards to SAMBUCCI, Anthony caught at the TOL2 and advanced to the TOL0, TOUCHDOWN WMU, score nullified by penalty (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY WMU Holding on BOSMA, Blake enforced 10 yards from the TOL22 to the TOL32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 19
OPP 32
0
76.9%
Western Michigan Penalty, Roughing the Passer on RAGIN, D'Andre enforced Unsportsmanlike Conduct on BOSMA, Blake enforced ( Yards) to the TOL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
74.2%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 15 yds to the TOL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.0%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for no gain to the TOL 1Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.0%
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the TOL 1Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.1%
CJ Hester 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0360% → 85%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
60.2%
Peny Boone run for 11 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
61.5%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the TOL 40Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
64.0%
Tucker Gleason run for 5 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+54
63.5%
Peny Boone run for 54 yds to the WMU 1 Peny Boone fumbled, recovered by TOL Larry Stephens for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.4%
Connor Walendzak 1 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 25INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:4818% → 18%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
82.1%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 1 yd to the WMU 33Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
82.4%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 1:0485% → 96%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
85.0%
Peny Boone run for 7 yds to the WMU 28Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+9
85.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Dalton Andrews for 9 yds to the WMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
95.6%
Peny Boone 19 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:566% → 4%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
94.5%
Jalen Buckley run for 4 yds to the WMU 36Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+2
94.3%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the WMU 38Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+5
94.4%
BUCKLEY, Jalen rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the WMU39 (CULPEPPER, Judge). PENALTY TOL Offsides on RAGIN, D'Andre enforced 5 yards from the WMU38 to the WMU43 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-8
94.3%
Treyson Bourguet sacked by Jeremiah Peters for a loss of 8 yards to the WMU 35Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 18
OWN 35
+1
95.1%
Treyson Bourguet run for 1 yd to the WMU 36Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 17
OWN 36
0
95.2%
Treyson Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 17
OWN 36
0
96.0%
Carson Voss punt for 9 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28DOWNS
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:2096% → 96%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
96.2%
Peny Boone run for 19 yds to the WMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
96.3%
Connor Walendzak run for 5 yds to the WMU 21Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
96.3%
Connor Walendzak run for no gain to the WMU 21Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+2
96.7%
Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds to the WMU 19Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 3
OPP 19
0
96.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 29DOWNS
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:513% → 2%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
96.9%
Treyson Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
96.9%
Treyson Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+6
97.1%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 6 yds to the WMU 25Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 4
OWN 25
-7
97.7%
Treyson Bourguet sacked by Judge Culpepper and Deshawn Holt for a loss of 7 yards to the WMU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 30TD
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:5197% → 99%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+16
97.4%
Peny Boone run for 16 yds to the WMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.2%
Peny Boone 2 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 31DOWNS
9 plays · 56 yds · 1:481% → 1%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.4%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 8 yds to the WMU 33Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
99.3%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 6 yds to the WMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
99.4%
Toledo Penalty, Targeting on HOLT, Deshawn enforced (Deshawn Holt) to the TOL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.2%
Treyson Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+17
99.3%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 17 yds to the TOL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
99.2%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for 3 yds to the TOL 12Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-15
99.2%
Western Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the TOL 22Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 17
OPP 22
+3
99.4%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 3 yds to the TOL 19Similar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 14
OPP 19
0
99.4%
Jack Salopek pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 32END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by GLEASON, Tucker at TOL17 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:10
CJ Hester 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)
-26.9
TD · Q3 4:53
Jerjuan Newton 20 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Luke Pawlak Kick)
+23.9
TD · Q4 11:07
Connor Walendzak 1 Yd Run (Luke Pawlak Kick)
+21.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com