2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreOHIO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:43 · Gianni Spetic 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:38: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 10 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — OHIO win probability +1.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:09: Keye Thompson 71 Yd Fumble Return (Gianni Spetic Kick) — OHIO win probability +2.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 8:43: Gianni Spetic 27 yd FG GOOD — BGSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 8%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:35: Roman Parodie 28 Yd Fumble Return (Gianni Spetic Kick) — OHIO win probability +3.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:42: Terion Stewart run for 4 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK) — BGSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 1%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7OHIO made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
- Q1 12:11BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snapGo for it21.6%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.6%average punt
- Q1 3:22BGSU 4th & 13 at BGSU 17, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snapGo for it16.1%−0.519% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.6%average punt
- Q1 1:03OHIO 4th & 5 at BGSU 32, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snapGo for it85.6%42% to convertField goalTheir call85.5%−0.151% to makePunt85.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 13:34BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 48, down 21Close callPunted · 15.0% before the snapGo for it15.1%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 8:43OHIO 4th & 7 at BGSU 9, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.9% before the snapGo for it88.7%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call88.8%89% to makePunt86.5%−2.3average punt
- Q2 6:18BGSU 4th & 23 at BGSU 34, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snapGo for it5.6%−1.07% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q2 4:42OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 35, up 31Close callWent for it · 92.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.6%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt92.9%average punt
- Q2 2:26BGSU 4th & 10 at OHIO 20, down 31Close callWent for it · 5.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.5%−0.228% to convertField goal5.7%75% to makePunt4.9%−0.8average punt
- Q3 12:31OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 30, up 31Close callPunted · 97.0% before the snapGo for it97.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 7:55BGSU 4th & 25 at BGSU 39, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q4 10:06OHIO 4th & 6 at BGSU 48, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q4 7:15BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 32, down 31Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:47OHIO 4th & 2 at BGSU 42, up 31Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%57% to convertField goal99.7%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call99.8%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 13:08OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.4%97% to makeGo for two78.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:38OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.7%97% to makeGo for two78.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:09OHIO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.4%97% to makeGo for two82.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:35OHIO Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.1%97% to makeGo for two93.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:22OHIO Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:42BGSU Touchdown, down 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.6%97% to makeGo for two0.6%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBGSUDrive 1INT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3815% → 15%
OHIODrive 2TD4 plays · 28 yds · 0:4085% → 85%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
15.3%
(14:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Bangura,Sieh rush middle for 0 yards to the BGSU28 (Hawkins,Anthony; Saad,Ali) PENALTY Ohio Illegal Formation 5 yards from BGSU28 to BGSU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+4
15.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 4 yds to the BGSU 29Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+29
15.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 29 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5215% → 16%
Q1 12:11
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
15.5%
Sami Sir punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyler Walton at the OHIO 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4TD6 plays · 79 yds · 3:2484% → 86%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+42
15.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 42 yds to the BGSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+20
15.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 20 yds to the BGSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+10
14.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 10 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5FUMBLE RETURN TD7 plays · 46 yds · 3:1815% → 13%
BGSUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3213% → 13%
Q1 4:18
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-6
12.5%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Shane Bonner for a loss of 6 yards to the BGSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7MISSED FG6 plays · 28 yds · 2:1389% → 89%
BGSUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 16 yds · 2:1912% → 12%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
12.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 6 yds to the BGSU 38Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+5
12.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 5 yds to the BGSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+8
11.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 8 yds to the BGSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9FG10 plays · 58 yds · 4:4590% → 92%
Q2 12:44
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+10
9.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 10 yds to the OHIO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 7
50
+25
8.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 25 yds to the BGSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+2
8.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Foster for 2 yds to the BGSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10FUMBLE RETURN TD3 plays · -7 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
BGSUDrive 11PUNT7 plays · -3 yds · 1:595% → 4%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
4.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 5 yds to the BGSU 42Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+5
4.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 5 yds to the BGSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 15
OWN 42
-8
4.0%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Rayyan Buell for a loss of 8 yards to the BGSU 34Similar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 23
OWN 34
+4
3.8%
Sami Sir punt for 38 yds , Sam Wiglusz returns for 4 yds to the OHIO 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12DOWNS4 plays · -12 yds · 1:2895% → 94%
Q2 4:42
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+15
5.6%
Jared Wheatley run for 15 yds to the OHIO 20 Jared Wheatley fumbled, recovered by OHIO Jared WheatleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13DOWNS4 plays · -2 yds · 2:084% → 3%
Q2 3:15
2ND & 16
OPP 26
-5
3.4%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Vonnie Watkins for a loss of 5 yards to the OHIO 31 Connor Bazelak fumbled, recovered by OHIO Kameren Stewart , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 21
OPP 31
+11
3.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 11 yds to the OHIO 20Similar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+2
3.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 2 yds to the OHIO 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14END OF HALF5 plays · 32 yds · 2:0796% → 98%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
3.9%
O'Shaan Allison run for 9 yds to the OHIO 31 TEAM fumbled, recovered by OHIOSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0497% → 98%
BGSUDrive 16INT4 plays · 18 yds · 0:362% → 2%
OHIODrive 17FUMBLE1 play · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
2.0%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Cashius Howell for 0 yards to the BGSU 39 Kurtis Rourke fumbled, recovered by OHIO Evan Branch-Haynes , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 2:272% → 2%
Q3 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+13
2.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 13 yds to the OHIO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19TD12 plays · 77 yds · 6:2598% → 99%
Q3 6:16
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+6
2.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 6 yds to the OHIO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+8
1.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 8 yds to the BGSU 38Similar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
1.5%
PENALTY Ohio False Start (Danneker,Kurt) 5 yards from BGSU35 to BGSU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
0.7%
PENALTY Ohio Delay Of Game (Rourke,Kurtis) 5 yards from BGSU14 to BGSU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+19
0.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 19 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20TD8 plays · 69 yds · 2:270% → 1%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
0.4%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Bazelak,Connor rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BGSU36 (Campolieti,Caden) PENALTY BGSU Holding offsetting Ohio Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+13
0.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Finn Hogan for 13 yds to the BGSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
0.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Levi Gazarek for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 3:1699% → 100%
Q4 11:38
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
0.4%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Rickey Hunt for 3 yds to the BGSU 45Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-5
0.4%
PENALTY Ohio False Start (Titsworth,Parker) 5 yards from BGSU45 to BGSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
0.4%
Jared Wheatley punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jhaylin Embry at the BGSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 2:410% → 0%
OHIODrive 23PUNT9 plays · 33 yds · 5:17100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 24END OF GAME3 plays · 20 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+15
0.1%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Mosley,Nick rush middle for 0 yards to the BGSU21 (Thomeson,Jalen; Henderson,Bralen) PENALTY Ohio UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Seegars,Kaci) 15 yards from BGSU21 to BGSU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:35
Roman Parodie 28 Yd Fumble Return (Gianni Spetic Kick)
-3.2
TD · Q1 5:09
Keye Thompson 71 Yd Fumble Return (Gianni Spetic Kick)
-2.7
TD · Q1 8:38
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 10 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
-1.6