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SJSU

San José State 17 at Toledo 21

TOL
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:13 · Luke Pawlak 43 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Pregame prior+4.9Home team on offense+9.3Garbage-time factor+2.7Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:11: Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 15 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK) — TOL win probability +12.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 9:58: Kairee Robinson run for 15 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK) — SJSU win probability +16.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:14: Dequan Finn run for 18 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK) — TOL win probability +15.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 1:01: Chris McDonald 25 Yd Interception Return (Luke Pawlak Kick) — TOL win probability +21.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. PUNT · Q4 1:56: Alex Weir punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the TOL 17 — TOL win probability +11.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SJSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:51SJSU 4th & 1 at TOL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.7%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:01TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:31SJSU 4th & 11 at TOL 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:47SJSU 4th & 10 at TOL 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:43TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:58TOL 4th & 1 at SJSU 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−3.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−4.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:42SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:45TOL 4th & 13 at TOL 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−4.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:44SJSU 4th & 16 at SJSU 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−2.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:13TOL 4th & 4 at SJSU 25, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.5%−1.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−13.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:31SJSU 4th & 20 at SJSU 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−4.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:59SJSU 4th & 1 at TOL 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−6.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−8.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:13TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−2.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:56SJSU 4th & 18 at SJSU 45, down 4
    Close callPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SJSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 6:47SJSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:11TOL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:58SJSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:14TOL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:01TOL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 48 yds · 2:0925% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
75.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 39 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
75.5%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the TOL 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+4
75.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 4 yds to the TOL 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+4
75.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Sam Olson for 4 yds to the TOL 27Similar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
74.9%
Dominick Mazotti run for no gain to the TOL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5075% → 75%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
75.0%
Peny Boone run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 26Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+5
75.0%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the TOL 31Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+4
75.0%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the TOL 35Similar
Q1 11:01
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
74.5%
Emilio Duran punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3MISSED FG
19 plays · 64 yds · 9:3026% → 28%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
74.5%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the SJSU 23Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+11
74.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 11 yds to the SJSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
74.5%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 3 yds to the SJSU 37Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+5
74.4%
Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds to the SJSU 42Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+3
74.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Sam Olson for 3 yds to the SJSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
74.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 5
50
+2
74.2%
Quali Conley run for 2 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+4
74.3%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 4 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
74.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
74.2%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Darius Alexander and Jackson Barrow for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 49Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+18
74.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 18 yds to the TOL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
74.1%
Isaac Jernagin run for 9 yds to the TOL 22Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+6
74.1%
Kairee Robinson run for 6 yds to the TOL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
74.1%
CORDEIRO, Chevan pass short up the middle complete for -15 yards to NASH, Nick caught at the TOL13 and advanced to the TOL31 (MITCHELL, Quinyon). PENALTY SJS Holding on PARDUE, Anthony enforced 10 yards from the TOL16 to the TOL26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 20
OPP 26
0
74.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 20
OPP 26
0
71.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 20
OPP 26
+9
71.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Charles Ross for 9 yds to the TOL 17Similar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+35
71.6%
Kyler Halvorsen 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3873% → 72%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
72.8%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
72.8%
Peny Boone run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 19Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-66
72.3%
FINN, Dequan pass deep to the right complete for 66 yards to VANDEROSS III, Junior caught at the SJS45 and advanced to the SJS15 (WILLIAMS, Chase). PENALTY TOL Holding enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the TOL19 to the TOL10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+8
71.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 8 yds to the TOL 18Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
71.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5FG
14 plays · 32 yds · 7:0630% → 35%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
70.2%
CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the left complete for -1 yard to OLSON, Sam caught at the SJS49 and advanced to the SJS48 (GANT, Dallas). PENALTY SJS Holding on OSTROM, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the SJS49 to the SJS39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+8
71.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 8 yds to the SJSU 47Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+8
70.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 8 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+5
70.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 5 yds to the TOL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
70.1%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 41Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-6
70.2%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Judge Culpepper for a loss of 6 yards to the TOL 47Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 17
OPP 47
+17
71.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Nick Nash for 17 yds to the TOL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
69.7%
Quali Conley run for 4 yds to the TOL 26Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
69.6%
Chevan Cordeiro run for 5 yds to the TOL 21Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
70.1%
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the TOL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
69.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
69.7%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Quali Conley for no gain to the TOL 19Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
70.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+37
65.4%
Kyler Halvorsen 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 36 yds · 0:5536% → 46%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
63.9%
CONLEY, Quali pass to the right incomplete intended for MAZOTTI, Dominick thrown to the TOL28; QB hurried by RAGIN, D'Andre. PENALTY TOL Roughing the Passer on RAGIN, D'Andre enforced 15 yards from the TOL36 to the TOL21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
63.2%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the TOL 20Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+20
54.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 20 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7TD
22 plays · 98 yds · 6:3056% → 64%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+13
56.0%
Peny Boone run for 13 yds to the TOL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
56.1%
FINN, Dequan pass to the right incomplete intended for NEWTON, Jerjuan broken up by DANSBY, Michael at the TOL26. PENALTY TOL Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on ROGERS, Devan enforced 5 yards from the TOL15 to the TOL10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+9
56.1%
Peny Boone run for 9 yds to the TOL 19Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+3
56.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Larry Stephens for 3 yds to the TOL 22Similar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
56.7%
Peny Boone run for 6 yds to the TOL 32Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+1
57.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 1 yd to the TOL 33Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+8
56.3%
Willie Shaw III run for 8 yds to the TOL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
57.5%
Dequan Finn run for no gain to the TOL 41Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
57.2%
Willie Shaw III run for 1 yd to the TOL 42Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+13
56.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 13 yds to the SJSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
58.4%
Willie Shaw III run for 8 yds to the SJSU 37Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+3
58.5%
Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the SJSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
59.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSU 36Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+4
55.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 4 yds to the TOL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+11
51.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 11 yds to the SJSU 25Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+4
51.7%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the SJSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
53.5%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+6
52.4%
Dequan Finn run for 6 yds to the SJSU 15Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+15
64.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 15 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
61.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by CORDEIRO, Chevan at SJS16 (team loss of 2).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:1762% → 60%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
62.2%
Peny Boone run for 14 yds to the TOL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
64.4%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the TOL 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
64.7%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
63.5%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:43
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
60.3%
Emilio Duran punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10PUNT
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:0540% → 39%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
60.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+5
60.4%
Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds to the SJSU 14Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
60.6%
Alex Weir punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:5060% → 60%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
60.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 1 yd to the TOL 35Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
59.9%
Dequan Finn pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:5045% → 60%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
55.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
55.1%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the TOL 31Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+16
56.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Malikhi Miller for 16 yds to the TOL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
40.3%
Kairee Robinson run for 15 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:4443% → 63%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
43.0%
Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the TOL 40Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+17
43.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 17 yds to the SJSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
45.3%
Dequan Finn sacked by Soane Toia and Tre Smith for a loss of 10 yards to the TOL 47Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 20
OWN 47
+11
43.2%
Willie Shaw III run for 11 yds to the SJSU 42Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+8
44.2%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the SJSU 34Similar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+16
43.6%
Dequan Finn run for 16 yds to the SJSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
46.8%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
62.6%
Dequan Finn run for 18 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3246% → 45%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
54.3%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 24Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
54.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Charles Ross for 5 yds to the SJSU 29Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
55.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
55.1%
Alex Weir punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the TOL 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:5756% → 52%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
56.0%
Willie Shaw III run for 14 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
59.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 3 yds to the TOL 47Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-5
59.8%
Toledo Penalty, False Start (Nick Rosi) to the TOL 42Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+4
57.0%
Willie Shaw III run for 4 yds to the TOL 46Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-5
56.2%
Toledo Penalty, False Start (Eric Holley III) to the TOL 41Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 13
OWN 41
0
54.7%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 13
OWN 41
0
52.1%
Emilio Duran punt for 44 yds, downed at the SJSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16INT TD
3 plays · -1 yds · 1:4449% → 26%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
51.4%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-1
51.9%
Chevan Cordeiro run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 14Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 11
OWN 14
-25
73.6%
Chris McDonald 25 Yd Interception Return (Luke Pawlak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:1728% → 27%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.8%
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the SJSU 27Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
71.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 3 yds to the SJSU 30Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
72.1%
CORDEIRO, Chevan pass short to the right incomplete intended for NASH, Nick broken up by MCDONALD JR., Chris at the SJS34. PENALTY TOL Pass Interference on MCDONALD JR., Chris declined TOL Personal Foul on HOLT, Deshawn enforced 15 yards from the SJS30 to the SJS45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
68.7%
CORDEIRO, Chevan pass to the right incomplete intended for NASH, Nick thrown to the TOL40. PENALTY TOL Holding on MCDONALD JR., Chris enforced 10 yards from the SJS45 to the TOL45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-6
67.1%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by D'Andre Ragin for a loss of 6 yards to the SJSU 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 49
0
70.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 49
0
71.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
72.9%
Alex Weir punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the TOL 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18MISSED FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:3174% → 75%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
73.5%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the TOL 12Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+5
73.6%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the TOL 17Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+15
72.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 15 yds to the TOL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
74.6%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+37
74.3%
Peny Boone run for 37 yds to the SJSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
78.4%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the SJSU 28Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+3
78.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 3 yds to the SJSU 25Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
77.1%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
74.8%
Luke Pawlak 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:4229% → 26%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.5%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
71.8%
San José State Penalty, False Start (Fernando Carmona Jr.) to the SJSU 20Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
72.1%
Quali Conley run for 5 yds to the SJSU 25Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
73.2%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by Judge Culpepper for a loss of 10 yards to the SJSU 15Similar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
74.1%
Alex Weir punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3234% → 32%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
65.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
66.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Isaac Jernagin for 2 yds to the TOL 43Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+7
66.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 7 yds to the TOL 36Similar
Q4 7:59
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
67.8%
Chevan Cordeiro run for no gain to the TOL 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4678% → 79%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
78.3%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the TOL 38Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
78.7%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the TOL 41Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
77.9%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
78.9%
Emilio Duran punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:1728% → 20%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
72.3%
Kairee Robinson run for 6 yds to the SJSU 12Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+8
71.8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 8 yds to the SJSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
71.4%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the SJSU 21Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
71.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 7 yds to the SJSU 28Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+7
71.2%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Charles Ross for 7 yds to the SJSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
69.9%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+18
70.6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 18 yds to the TOL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
65.0%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
66.1%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-8
68.4%
Chevan Cordeiro sacked by D'Andre Ragin and Jeremiah Peters for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSU 45Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 18
OWN 45
0
79.8%
Alex Weir punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the TOL 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
9 plays · 30 yds · 1:4991% → 96%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
91.1%
Peny Boone run for 13 yds to the TOL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
91.4%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+22
91.3%
Peny Boone run for 22 yds to the SJSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.5%
[NHSG] Kneel down by FINN, Dequan at SJS49 (team loss of 4).Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 14
OPP 49
0
95.2%
[NHSG] Kneel down by FINN, Dequan at TOL48 (team loss of 3).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 48
0
95.6%
[NHSG] Kneel down by FINN, Dequan at TOL47 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:01
Chris McDonald 25 Yd Interception Return (Luke Pawlak Kick)
+21.8
TD · Q3 9:58
Kairee Robinson run for 15 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)
-16.1
TD · Q3 6:14
Dequan Finn run for 18 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)
+15.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com