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FOR

Fordham 40 at Buffalo 37

BUF
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadFOR aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreFOR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:49 · C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 43. Catch made by B.Curry at BUF 43. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 49.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Pregame prior+8.8Home team on offense−4.4Garbage-time factor−4.6Score differential−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Blowout margin−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:39: C.Montes pass complete to BUF 9. Catch made by J.Loughridge at BUF 9. Gain of 9 yards. J.Loughridge for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — FOR win probability +10.1 pts (now 35%) (top driver: FOR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:16: M.Washington rushed to FOR End Zone for 5 yards. M.Washington for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — BUF win probability +12.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:53: C.Montes pass complete to BUF 2. Catch made by G.Cody at BUF 2. Gain of 2 yards. G.Cody for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — FOR win probability +19.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: FOR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:10: C.Snyder pass complete to FOR 36. Catch made by M.Johnson at FOR 36. Gain of 36 yards. M.Johnson for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — BUF win probability +27.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:38: C.Montes pass complete to BUF 15. Catch made by M.Wright at BUF 15. Gain of 15 yards. M.Wright for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — FOR win probability +49.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FOR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FOR made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:16FOR 4th & 5 at FOR 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:44FOR 4th & 13 at BUF 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:29BUF 4th & 1 at FOR 1, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    90.0%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:09FOR 4th & 1 at BUF 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−0.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:19FOR 4th & 12 at BUF 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:13FOR 4th & 5 at BUF 47, down 1
    Close callPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:25BUF 4th & 13 at BUF 17, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−2.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:49FOR 4th & 10 at BUF 41, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    19.6%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:53FOR 4th & 2 at BUF 2, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    23.2%−3.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−14.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:16BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.0%−3.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:49BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.8%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:43BUF 4th & 2 at FOR 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.6
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%
    40% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−13.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FOR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:49BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:11BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:18BUF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:16FOR Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:00FOR Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:16BUF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:53FOR Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:10BUF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:38FOR Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:5993% → 93%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
93.2%
M.Washington rushed to BUF 32 for 4 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 32.Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+6
93.1%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 32. Catch made by B.Curry at BUF 32. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 38.Similar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
93.0%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 38. Catch made by C.Harrity at BUF 38. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 44.Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+14
92.9%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 44. Catch made by M.Johnson at BUF 44. Gain of 14 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 42.Similar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
92.7%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for BUF.Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-4
92.7%
C.Snyder rushed to FOR 46 for -4 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 46.Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 14
OPP 46
+16
92.5%
M.Washington rushed to FOR 30 for 16 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 30.Similar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+29
92.5%
C.Snyder pass complete to FOR 30. Catch made by C.Harrity at FOR 30. Gain of 29 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 1.Similar
Q1 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.8%
M.Washington rushed to FOR End Zone for 1 yards. M.Washington for 1 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 2BLOCKED PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:317% → 7%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.6%
J.Loughridge rushed to FOR 30 for 5 yards. Tackled by BUF at FOR 30.Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
92.5%
C.Montes steps back to pass. C.Montes pass incomplete intended for FOR.Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
92.5%
C.Montes steps back to pass. C.Montes pass incomplete intended for FOR.Similar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
92.6%
FOR punts 0 yards to FOR 30, Center-FOR. J.Stevens blocked the kick.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
93.2%
C.Snyder pass complete to FOR 22. Catch made by M.Johnson at FOR 22. Gain of 22 yards. M.Johnson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 4FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 6:227% → 8%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.0%
C.Montes steps back to pass. C.Montes pass incomplete intended for M.Felton.Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.0%
J.Loughridge rushed to FOR 32 for 7 yards. Tackled by BUF at FOR 32.Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
92.9%
PENALTY on FOR-G.Cody, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+22
93.0%
C.Montes pass complete to FOR 27. Catch made by M.Wright at FOR 27. Gain of 22 yards. Tackled by BUF at FOR 49.Similar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
92.8%
J.Loughridge rushed to FOR 49 for 0 yards. Tackled by BUF at FOR 49.Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-8
92.9%
C.Montes steps back to pass. C.Montes sacked at FOR 41 for -8 yards (G.Wolo)Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 18
OWN 41
+25
93.0%
J.Loughridge rushed to BUF 34 for 25 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 34.Similar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
92.6%
C.Montes pass complete to BUF 34. Catch made by M.Felton at BUF 34. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 28.Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+2
92.5%
J.Loughridge rushed to BUF 26 for 2 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 26.Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+9
92.6%
J.Loughridge rushed to BUF 17 for 9 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 17.Similar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
92.5%
J.Loughridge rushed to BUF 14 for 3 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 14.Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
92.4%
J.Loughridge rushed to BUF 14 for 0 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 14.Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 7
OPP 14
-6
92.5%
J.Loughridge rushed to BUF 20 for -6 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 20.Similar
Q1 3:44
4TH & 13
OPP 20
0
92.0%
B.Peskin 38 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-FOR, Holder-FOR.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 4:1692% → 94%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
92.0%
R.Cook rushed to BUF 34 for 2 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 34.Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+2
91.9%
R.Cook rushed to BUF 36 for 2 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 36.Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+5
91.6%
PENALTY on BUF-C.Shepard, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+17
91.5%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 31. Catch made by N.McMillan at BUF 31. Gain of 17 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 48.Similar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+27
91.9%
R.Cook rushed to FOR 25 for 27 yards. Pushed out of bounds by FOR at FOR 25.Similar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
91.8%
C.Snyder pass complete to FOR 25. Catch made by Z.Carter at FOR 25. Gain of 3 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 22.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+7
91.8%
R.Cook rushed to FOR 15 for 7 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 15.Similar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
94.1%
C.Snyder pass complete to FOR 15. Catch made by D.Harding at FOR 15. Gain of 15 yards. D.Harding for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 6TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 2:556% → 10%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
93.8%
C.Montes rushed to FOR 19 for 8 yards. Tackled by BUF at FOR 19.Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 7
OWN 19
-1
93.9%
J.Loughridge rushed to FOR 18 for -1 yards. Tackled by BUF at FOR 18.Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+10
94.0%
C.Montes rushed to FOR 28 for 10 yards. Tackled by BUF at FOR 28.Similar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+46
93.8%
C.Montes pass complete to FOR 28. Catch made by M.Wright at FOR 28. Gain of 46 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 26.Similar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
93.3%
C.Montes rushed to BUF 25 for 1 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 25.Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+16
93.4%
C.Montes pass complete to BUF 25. Catch made by G.Cody at BUF 25. Gain of 16 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 9.Similar
Q2 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
90.1%
C.Montes pass complete to BUF 9. Catch made by M.Felton at BUF 9. Gain of 9 yards. M.Felton for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:3192% → 91%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
91.9%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for C.Harrity.Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
91.9%
C.Snyder pass complete to FOR 28. Catch made by C.Harrity at FOR 28. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 22.Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+6
91.8%
M.Washington rushed to FOR 16 for 6 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 16.Similar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
91.9%
C.Snyder pass complete to FOR 16. Catch made by M.Washington at FOR 16. Gain of 10 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 6.Similar
Q2 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
91.9%
M.Washington rushed to FOR 5 for 1 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 5.Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
91.8%
M.Washington rushed to FOR 3 for 2 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 3.Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
91.3%
M.Washington rushed to FOR 1 for 2 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 1.Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
91.1%
M.Washington rushed to FOR 3 for -2 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 3.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 8TD
16 plays · 97 yds · 5:259% → 18%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
90.9%
C.Montes steps back to pass. C.Montes pass incomplete intended for G.Cody.Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
91.0%
C.Montes steps back to pass. C.Montes pass incomplete intended for M.Wright.Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+20
91.3%
C.Montes pass complete to FOR 3. Catch made by G.Cody at FOR 3. Gain of 20 yards. Tackled by BUF at FOR 23.Similar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
90.7%
J.Loughridge rushed to FOR 35 for 12 yards. Tackled by BUF at FOR 35.Similar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
90.5%
J.Loughridge rushed to BUF 35 for 30 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 35.Similar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+8
90.0%
J.Rodriguez rushed to BUF 37 for 8 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 37.Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
90.4%
J.Rodriguez rushed to BUF 37 for 0 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 37.Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+11
90.7%
C.Montes pass complete to BUF 37. Catch made by M.Wright at BUF 37. Gain of 11 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 26.Similar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+1
90.5%
C.Montes rushed to BUF 25 for 1 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 25.Similar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
89.6%
C.Montes steps back to pass. C.Montes pass incomplete intended for FOR.Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
89.7%
C.Montes pass complete to BUF 25. Catch made by J.Ciccio at BUF 25. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 17.Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+5
90.0%
C.Montes pass complete to BUF 17. Catch made by G.Cody at BUF 17. Gain of 5 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 12.Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
82.2%
C.Montes pass complete to BUF 13. Catch made by M.Felton at BUF 13. Gain of 12 yards. M.Felton for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 9FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:1416% → 17%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
84.0%
J.Loughridge rushed to BUF 40 for 20 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 40.Similar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
82.6%
C.Montes scrambles to BUF 32 for 8 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 32.Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+8
81.5%
C.Montes pass complete to BUF 32. Catch made by K.Reed at BUF 32. Gain of 8 yards. Pushed out of bounds by BUF at BUF 24.Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
81.4%
C.Montes steps back to pass. C.Montes pass incomplete intended for M.Wright.Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-2
81.6%
R.Parks rushed to BUF 26 for -2 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 26.Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
83.1%
C.Montes steps back to pass. C.Montes pass incomplete intended for J.Loughridge.Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 12
OPP 30
0
83.2%
B.Peskin 44 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-FOR, Holder-FOR.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
83.8%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 25. Catch made by M.Washington at BUF 25. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 34.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:4217% → 19%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
83.2%
C.Montes rushed to FOR 26 for 2 yards. Tackled by BUF at FOR 26. PENALTY on BUF-D.Grant, Defensive Targeting, 15 yards, accepted.Similar
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-9
81.8%
C.Montes steps back to pass. C.Montes sacked at FOR 32 for -9 yards (D.Williams; M.Michel)Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 19
OWN 32
0
82.8%
C.Montes steps back to pass. C.Montes pass incomplete intended for G.Cody. PENALTY on BUF-C.Offord, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
80.7%
J.Loughridge rushed to FOR 47 for 0 yards. Tackled by BUF at FOR 47.Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
81.0%
C.Montes rushed to BUF 45 for 8 yards. C.Montes ran out of bounds.Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 2
OPP 45
-2
80.6%
J.Loughridge rushed to BUF 47 for -2 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 47.Similar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 5
OPP 47
+47
81.2%
W.Haslett punts 47 yards to BUF End Zone, Center-FOR. Touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4382% → 80%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+2
82.0%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 15. Catch made by B.Curry at BUF 15. Gain of 2 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 17.Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 13
OWN 17
-5
81.6%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 17. Catch made by M.Johnson at BUF 17. Gain of -5 yards. M.Johnson FUMBLES, forced by M.Courtney. Fumble RECOVERED by BUF-BUF at BUF 12. Tackled by FOR at BUF 12.Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 18
OWN 12
+5
80.3%
PENALTY on FOR-M.Jaworski, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
80.2%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for C.Harrity.Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+39
79.7%
A.Venneri punts 39 yards to FOR 44, Center-BUF. Fair catch by FOR.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:3321% → 20%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
79.0%
C.Montes pass complete to FOR 44. Catch made by M.Felton at FOR 44. Gain of 15 yards. Pushed out of bounds by BUF at BUF 41.Similar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
78.2%
J.Rodriguez rushed to BUF 39 for 2 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 39.Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-2
77.6%
J.Rodriguez rushed to BUF 41 for -2 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 41.Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
78.3%
C.Montes steps back to pass. C.Montes pass incomplete intended for M.Wright.Similar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 10
OPP 41
+30
80.0%
W.Haslett punts 30 yards to BUF 11, Center-FOR. R.Cook returned punt from the BUF 11. R.Cook FUMBLES, forced by FOR. Fumble RECOVERED by FOR-J.Conway at BUF 11. Tackled by BUF at BUF 11.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 14TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:0124% → 35%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
76.1%
C.Montes scrambles to BUF 10 for 1 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 10.Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+1
75.5%
J.Loughridge rushed to BUF 9 for 1 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 9.Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
65.4%
C.Montes pass complete to BUF 9. Catch made by J.Loughridge at BUF 9. Gain of 9 yards. J.Loughridge for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1670% → 85%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
70.2%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 25. Catch made by N.McMillan at BUF 25. Gain of 15 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 40.Similar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
72.2%
M.Washington rushed to BUF 46 for 6 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 46.Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+6
72.5%
M.Washington rushed to FOR 48 for 6 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 48.Similar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
72.7%
M.Washington rushed to FOR 38 for 10 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 38.Similar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
72.6%
C.Snyder pass complete to FOR 38. Catch made by C.Harrity at FOR 38. Gain of 12 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 26.Similar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
73.6%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for D.Harding. PENALTY on FOR-M.Thorn, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 5
OPP 21
+1
73.7%
R.Cook rushed to FOR 20 for 1 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 20.Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+4
72.9%
R.Cook rushed to FOR 16 for 4 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 16.Similar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
72.5%
C.Snyder pass complete to FOR 16. Catch made by N.McMillan at FOR 16. Gain of 11 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 5.Similar
Q3 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
72.0%
M.Washington rushed to FOR 5 for 0 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 5.Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
84.9%
M.Washington rushed to FOR End Zone for 5 yards. M.Washington for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 16TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 5:1120% → 46%
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
80.3%
C.Montes rushed to FOR 16 for 2 yards. Tackled by BUF at FOR 16.Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+1
80.1%
J.Loughridge rushed to FOR 17 for 1 yards. Tackled by BUF at FOR 17.Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
80.9%
C.Montes steps back to pass. C.Montes pass incomplete intended for G.Cody. PENALTY on BUF-C.Hines, Defensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
79.3%
C.Montes steps back to pass. C.Montes pass incomplete intended for C.Thornton.Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
79.8%
J.James rushed to FOR 31 for 4 yards. J.James ran out of bounds.Similar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+10
79.7%
C.Montes pass complete to FOR 31. Catch made by G.Cody at FOR 31. Gain of 10 yards. Pushed out of bounds by BUF at FOR 41.Similar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
77.0%
C.Montes pass complete to FOR 41. Catch made by M.Felton at FOR 41. Gain of 14 yards. Pushed out of bounds by BUF at BUF 45.Similar
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+42
75.0%
C.Montes pass complete to BUF 45. Catch made by M.Wright at BUF 45. Gain of 42 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 3.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
73.2%
J.Loughridge rushed to BUF 4 for -1 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 4.Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
72.7%
C.Montes rushed to BUF 4 for 0 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 4.Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
73.8%
C.Montes pass complete to BUF 4. Catch made by J.Allen at BUF 4. Gain of 2 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 2.Similar
Q4 12:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
54.3%
C.Montes pass complete to BUF 2. Catch made by G.Cody at BUF 2. Gain of 2 yards. G.Cody for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 4:3658% → 82%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
57.6%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 25. Catch made by B.Curry at BUF 25. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 34.Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
60.6%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 34. Catch made by C.Harrity at BUF 34. Gain of -1 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 33.Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
57.9%
C.Snyder rushed to BUF 34 for 1 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 34.Similar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
54.2%
R.Cook rushed to BUF 35 for 1 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 35.Similar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
54.9%
R.Cook rushed to BUF 44 for 9 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 44.Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
56.5%
R.Cook rushed to BUF 44 for 0 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 44.Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
54.9%
R.Cook rushed to BUF 43 for -1 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 43.Similar
Q4 8:49
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+6
51.3%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 43. Catch made by B.Curry at BUF 43. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 49.Similar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
55.0%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for B.Curry. PENALTY on FOR-C.Blair, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
82.0%
C.Snyder pass complete to FOR 36. Catch made by M.Johnson at FOR 36. Gain of 36 yards. M.Johnson for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 18TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2525% → 80%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
75.2%
C.Montes pass complete to FOR 25. Catch made by M.Wright at FOR 25. Gain of 11 yards. Pushed out of bounds by BUF at FOR 36.Similar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
73.4%
C.Montes steps back to pass. C.Montes pass incomplete intended for M.Wright.Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
74.1%
J.Loughridge rushed to FOR 39 for 3 yards. Tackled by BUF at FOR 39.Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+12
73.4%
C.Montes pass complete to FOR 39. Catch made by M.Wright at FOR 39. Gain of 12 yards. M.Wright ran out of bounds.Similar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
68.3%
C.Montes pass complete to BUF 49. Catch made by C.Thornton at BUF 49. Gain of 4 yards. C.Thornton ran out of bounds.Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
68.1%
C.Montes steps back to pass. C.Montes pass incomplete intended for C.Thornton.Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+12
68.6%
C.Montes rushed to BUF 33 for 12 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 33.Similar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
67.8%
C.Montes scrambles to BUF 29 for 4 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 29.Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
68.8%
C.Montes steps back to pass. C.Montes pass incomplete intended for FOR.Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
71.5%
C.Montes steps back to pass. C.Montes pass incomplete intended for M.Wright. PENALTY on BUF-C.Offord, Defensive Pass Interference, 6 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
68.7%
J.Loughridge rushed to BUF 25 for -2 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 25.Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+10
69.7%
C.Montes pass complete to BUF 24. Catch made by M.Felton at BUF 24. Gain of 10 yards. M.Felton ran out of bounds.Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+15
19.9%
C.Montes pass complete to BUF 15. Catch made by M.Wright at BUF 15. Gain of 15 yards. M.Wright for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19MISSED FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 1:4936% → 31%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.3%
C.Snyder rushed to BUF 30 for 5 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 30.Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
36.5%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for BUF.Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
34.1%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 30. Catch made by M.Johnson at BUF 30. Gain of 11 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 41.Similar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
37.6%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 40. Catch made by C.Harrity at BUF 40. Gain of 5 yards. Tackled by FOR at BUF 45.Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
37.0%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for BUF.Similar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+10
35.1%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 45. Catch made by M.Johnson at BUF 45. Gain of 10 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 45.Similar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-9
38.0%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder sacked at BUF 47 for -9 yards (FOR) PENALTY on BUF-BUF, Intentional Grounding, 0 yards, accepted.Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 19
OWN 46
+17
30.5%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 46. Catch made by M.Johnson at BUF 46. Gain of 17 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 37.Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 2
OPP 37
0
40.0%
R.Cook rushed to FOR 37 for 0 yards. Tackled by FOR at FOR 37.Similar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
31.1%
A.McNulty 54 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-BUF, Holder-BUF.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:38
C.Montes pass complete to BUF 15. Catch made by M.Wright at BUF 15. Gain of 15 yards. M.Wright for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-49.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-31.1
TD · Q4 8:10
C.Snyder pass complete to FOR 36. Catch made by M.Johnson at FOR 36. Gain of 36 yards. M.Johnson for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+27
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com