2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadEIU aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreEIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:32 · Julian Patino 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:10: Terion Stewart run for 1 yd for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK) — BGSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:01: Connor Bazelak pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 11 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK) — BGSU win probability +3.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:31: Pierce Holley pass complete to DeAirious Smith for 31 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — EIU win probability +4.1 pts (now 13%) (top driver: EIU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 3:23: Alan Anaya 27 yd FG GOOD — BGSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:07: Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 19 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK) — BGSU win probability +4.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4EIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
- Q1 5:35EIU 4th & 2 at BGSU 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.6%57% to convertField goal14.5%−0.175% to makePunt13.8%−0.8average punt
- Q1 2:12BGSU 4th & 4 at BGSU 44, up 1Close callPunted · 83.1% before the snapGo for it83.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 0:27EIU 4th & 7 at EIU 9, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snapGo for it16.3%−0.235% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.5%average punt
- Q2 10:30EIU 4th & 11 at EIU 15, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snapGo for it13.4%−0.725% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.0%average punt
- Q2 3:08EIU 4th & 11 at EIU 43, down 15Close callWent for it · 10.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.8%−0.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.2%average punt
- Q2 1:31EIU 4th & 7 at BGSU 31, down 15Close callWent for it · 10.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.6%−0.137% to convertField goal10.7%54% to makePunt10.1%−0.6average punt
- Q2 0:34BGSU 4th & 4 at BGSU 46, up 9Close callPunted · 84.8% before the snapGo for it84.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 8:41EIU 4th & 16 at BGSU 32, down 9Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 14.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.9%−1.516% to convertField goal14.4%51% to makePunt13.4%−1.0average punt
- Q3 8:41EIU 4th & 16 at BGSU 32, down 9Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 14.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.9%−1.516% to convertField goal14.4%51% to makePunt13.4%−1.0average punt
- Q3 5:53BGSU 4th & 3 at EIU 24, up 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.7%52% to convertField goal86.1%−0.768% to makePunt80.8%−6.0average punt
- Q3 3:23BGSU 4th & 9 at EIU 9, up 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snapGo for it85.3%−1.125% to convertField goalTheir call86.4%89% to makePunt79.1%−7.3average punt
- Q3 2:25EIU 4th & 8 at EIU 37, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snapGo for it9.4%−0.634% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.0%average punt
- Q4 10:32EIU 4th & 14 at BGSU 14, down 19Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.916% to convertField goalTheir call3.0%84% to makePunt0.6%−2.5average punt
- Q4 5:54EIU 4th & 7 at BGSU 36, down 23Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%−<0.137% to convertField goal0.7%42% to makePunt0.7%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5EIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 9:43BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.0%97% to makeGo for two86.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:57EIU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call16.1%97% to makeGo for two16.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:10BGSU Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.8%97% to makeGo for two84.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:01BGSU Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.9%97% to makeGo for two88.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:31EIU Touchdown, down 9 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick15.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call15.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:07BGSU Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:35BGSU Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBGSUDrive 1TD11 plays · 90 yds · 5:0489% → 88%
Q1 13:56
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+14
88.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 14 yds to the BGSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
88.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 16 yds to the BGSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+34
88.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 34 yds to the EIU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+4
88.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Levi Gazarek for 4 yds to the EIU 14Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+8
87.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 8 yds to the EIU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
88.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 10 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 2TD12 plays · 65 yds · 4:3012% → 14%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
88.0%
Pierce Holley pass complete to DeAirious Smith for 22 yds to the BGSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+10
87.6%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Anthony Manaves for 10 yds to the BGSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+8
87.3%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Justin Bowick for 8 yds to the BGSU 20Similar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+5
87.3%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Eli Mirza for 5 yds to the BGSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
85.6%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Kevin Daniels for 15 yds for a TD (William Orth PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 2:3286% → 85%
EIUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3515% → 15%
Q1 0:27
4TH & 7
OWN 9
+1
85.5%
Jacob Horvath punt for 44 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for 1 yd to the BGSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5TD6 plays · 50 yds · 2:3985% → 88%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 18
OWN 40
+17
85.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 17 yds to the EIU 43Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+13
85.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 13 yds to the EIU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
85.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 19 yds to the EIU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2013% → 13%
BGSUDrive 7TD10 plays · 56 yds · 3:2287% → 91%
Q2 9:42
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+19
87.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Austin Osborne for 19 yds to the EIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+11
87.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 11 yds to the EIU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
91.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 11 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 8TD14 plays · 90 yds · 5:0610% → 13%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
90.3%
Pierce Holley pass complete to DeAirious Smith for 6 yds to the EIU 16Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-5
89.7%
PENALTY EIU False Start (Mirza,Eli) 5 yards from EIU37 to EIU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+12
90.8%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Lazerick Eatman for 12 yds to the EIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+31
86.7%
Pierce Holley pass complete to DeAirious Smith for 31 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 0:4987% → 87%
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
86.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 15 yds to the BGSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
87.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 4 yds to the BGSU 44Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+2
87.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 2 yds to the BGSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 11INT13 plays · 52 yds · 6:0914% → 13%
Q3 13:32
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+9
85.5%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Justin Bowick for 9 yds to the EIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
84.8%
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Holley,Pierce pass incomplete deep middle to Mirza,Eli PENALTY EIU Holding (DiSanto,Nic) 10 yards from EIU38 to EIU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+20
85.5%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Eli Mirza for 20 yds to the EIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
84.9%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Anthony Manaves for 4 yds to the BGSU 48Similar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-8
83.4%
Pierce Holley sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 8 yards to the BGSU 34Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 18
OPP 34
-7
84.4%
Pierce Holley sacked by Davon Ferguson for a loss of 7 yards to the BGSU 41Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 25
OPP 41
+9
85.8%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Kevin Daniels for 9 yds to the BGSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12FG15 plays · 71 yds · 5:1087% → 91%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
87.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 6 yds to the BGSU 44Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+8
88.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Austin Osborne for 8 yds to the EIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 14
OPP 35
+11
88.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 11 yds to the EIU 24Similar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+11
87.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 11 yds to the EIU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5311% → 10%
Q3 2:25
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+7
90.2%
Jacob Horvath punt for 44 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for 7 yds to the BGSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14TD3 plays · 74 yds · 1:0691% → 97%
EIUDrive 15FG14 plays · 57 yds · 5:245% → 5%
Q3 0:32
2ND & 5
OWN 34
-5
95.3%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Holley,Pierce pass complete short left to Mirza,Eli for 5 yards to the EIU39 (Sipp Jr.,Joseph; Branch-Haynes,Evan) PENALTY EIU Illegal Formation 5 yards from EIU34 to EIU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
96.1%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Eli Mirza for 1 yd to the BGSU 39Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+10
96.1%
Pierce Holley pass complete to MJ Flowers for 10 yds to the BGSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
95.6%
(12:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Daniels,Kevin rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BGSU23 (Howell,Cashius; Tau,Kitione) PENALTY EIU Illegal Formation 5 yards from BGSU29 to BGSU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+24
95.9%
Pierce Holley pass complete to DeAirious Smith for 24 yds to the BGSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
95.7%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Daniel Luoma for 5 yds to the BGSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5097% → 99%
Q4 9:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+37
96.7%
Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 22 yds to the EIU 48 for a 1ST down Eastern Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (Russell Dandy) to the EIU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+27
97.1%
Camden Orth pass complete to Austin Osborne for 27 yds to the EIU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 17DOWNS9 plays · 60 yds · 2:221% → 1%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+37
99.1%
Pierce Holley pass complete to DeWayne Cooks Jr. for 37 yds to the EIU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
99.0%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Justin Bowick for 10 yds to the BGSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
99.2%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Kevin Daniels for 10 yds to the BGSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
99.2%
Pierce Holley pass complete to Kevin Daniels for 4 yds to the BGSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18END OF GAME9 plays · 46 yds · 5:46100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:07
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 19 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)
+4.6
TD · Q2 1:31
Pierce Holley pass complete to DeAirious Smith for 31 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-4.1
TD · Q2 7:01
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 11 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)
+3.1