2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadMORG aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreMORG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:13 · Duce Taylor sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the MORG 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differential
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:32: Dominique Anthony pass complete to Matt Lowe for 8 yds for a TD (Beckett Leary KICK) — MORG win probability +7.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: MORG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:50: Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Alex Adams for 29 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK) — AKR win probability +11.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:23: Duce Taylor pass complete to Treveyon Pratt for 31 yds for a TD (Beckett Leary KICK) — MORG win probability +15.6 pts (now 25%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 1:55: Duce Taylor pass complete to Treveyon Pratt for 12 yds for a TD (Beckett Leary KICK) — MORG win probability +32.0 pts (now 49%) (top driver: MORG has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:52: Bryan McCoy 13 Yd Fumble Return (Noah Perez Kick) — AKR win probability +69.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MORG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 4MORG made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 13:13MORG 4th & 20 at MORG 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.6%average punt
- Q1 11:18AKR 4th & 4 at MORG 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 93.1% before the snapGo for it93.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call93.1%−<0.193% to makePunt92.6%−0.5average punt
- Q1 10:17MORG 4th & 7 at MORG 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it7.0%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.0%average punt
- Q1 2:04MORG 4th & 15 at MORG 16, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snapGo for it8.6%−0.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.0%average punt
- Q1 0:35AKR 4th & 2 at MORG 45, up 3Close callPunted · 90.3% before the snapGo for it90.4%57% to convertField goal90.0%−0.425% to makePuntTheir call90.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:07MORG 4th & 4 at MORG 11, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.7%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.8%average punt
- Q2 12:32AKR 4th & 3 at MORG 30, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.4%52% to convertField goal89.2%−0.256% to makePunt88.9%−0.5average punt
- Q2 10:49MORG 4th & 1 at MORG 48, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt11.0%−0.6average punt
- Q2 10:49MORG 4th & 2 at AKR 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.6%57% to convertField goal11.3%−0.456% to makePunt10.9%−0.7average punt
- Q2 2:26MORG 4th & 15 at AKR 33, up 4Close callWent for it · 20.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.2%−0.917% to convertField goal20.2%49% to makePunt19.1%−1.1average punt
- Q3 10:59MORG 4th & 4 at MORG 16, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snapGo for it9.1%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.2%average punt
- Q3 7:37MORG 4th & 12 at AKR 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.6%−0.424% to convertField goal9.7%−0.432% to makePuntTheir call10.0%average punt
- Q4 8:57AKR 4th & 7 at MORG 32, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.0% before the snapGo for it47.8%−0.637% to convertField goalTheir call48.4%51% to makePunt44.2%−4.2average punt
- Q4 4:56MORG 4th & 7 at AKR 42, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 70.0% before the snapGo for it70.2%37% to convertField goal67.2%−3.030% to makePuntTheir call68.1%−2.1average punt
- Q4 0:13MORG 4th & 10 at MORG 36, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.8%29% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.3%−2.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MORG made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 5:32MORG Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.4%97% to makeGo for two18.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:50AKR Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.3%97% to makeGo for two85.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:14AKR Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.2%97% to makeGo for two90.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:23MORG Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.6%97% to makeGo for two18.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:55MORG Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.1%97% to makeGo for two37.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 0:52AKR Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.4%97% to makeGo for two77.9%−3.545% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMORGDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 1:376% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2FG4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2993% → 93%
MORGDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:527% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4PUNT13 plays · 13 yds · 6:1393% → 91%
Q1 9:40
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+11
92.7%
DJ Irons pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 11 yds to the AKR 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+14
92.6%
DJ Irons pass complete to TJ Banks for 14 yds to the MORG 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
92.3%
DJ Irons pass complete to Caleb Anderson Akron Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Phaizon Wilson) to the MORG 45Similar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 25
OPP 45
+5
92.0%
DJ Irons pass complete to Caleb Anderson for 5 yds to the MORG 40Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 20
OPP 40
-20
91.9%
DJ Irons run for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard line Akron Penalty, Offensive holding (Keon Kindred) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:419% → 9%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
91.3%
Carson Baker pass incomplete to Treveyon Pratt Morgan State Penalty, personal foul (Jarin Davis) to the MORG 11Similar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+6
91.3%
Carson Baker pass complete to Treveyon Pratt for 6 yds to the MORG 17Similar
Q1 2:04
4TH & 15
OWN 16
+6
91.0%
Shane Messenger punt for 42 yds , Bobby Golden returns for 6 yds to the AKR 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1691% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1910% → 10%
AKRDrive 8DOWNS4 plays · -2 yds · 12:3289% → 86%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
86.1%
DJ Irons pass incomplete to Alex Adams, broken up by Jae'Veyon MortonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 9TD12 plays · 61 yds · 10:4912% → 26%
MORGDrive 10DOWNS8 plays · 25 yds · 2:2621% → 25%
AKRDrive 11TD6 plays · 67 yds · 0:5087% → 87%
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
86.7%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Alex Adams for 29 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
84.6%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 5 yds to the AKR 38Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+20
85.5%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Lorenzo Lingard for 20 yds to the MORG 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
86.1%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Daniel George for 13 yds Jeff Undercuffler Jr. fumbled, recovered by AKR Jasaiah Gathings for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
86.5%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Jake Newell for 5 yds to the MORG 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 12TD5 plays · 75 yds · 0:1411% → 10%
AKRDrive 14PUNT2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 15PUNT1 play · 6 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 10:59
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
90.9%
Shane Messenger punt for 34 yds , Bobby Golden returns for no gain to the 50 yard line Bobby Golden fumbled, recovered by MORG Jeremiah Wynn , return to the 50 yard line , return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5110% → 10%
Q3 9:28
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+5
89.7%
Akron Penalty, off-side (Darrian Lewis) to the AKR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17INT1 play · 26 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 18TD1 play · 31 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+31
75.5%
Duce Taylor pass complete to Treveyon Pratt for 31 yds for a TD (Beckett Leary KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19INT2 plays · 27 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 20TD1 play · 13 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q3 1:55
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
50.6%
Duce Taylor pass complete to Treveyon Pratt for 12 yds for a TD (Beckett Leary KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 21PUNT3 plays · 36 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 22INT10 plays · 60 yds · 10:0761% → 94%
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+17
4.7%
Duce Taylor pass complete to Jarin Davis for 17 yds to the MORG 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
4.7%
Duce Taylor pass complete to Avery Jones for 12 yds to the MORG 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+16
4.3%
Duce Taylor pass complete to Keith Jenkins Jr. for 16 yds to the AKR 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23MISSED FG4 plays · 3 yds · 8:5750% → 26%
MORGDrive 24PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 4:5670% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 25INT11 plays · 69 yds · 2:3841% → 24%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
44.3%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Daniel George for 15 yds to the MORG 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
17.8%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Alex Adams for 16 yds to the AKR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+4
17.5%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Alex Adams for 4 yds to the AKR 38Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+13
19.3%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Alex Adams for 13 yds to the MORG 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
23.7%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Daniel George for 12 yds to the MORG 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 26FUMBLE RETURN TD3 plays · 80 yds · 1:0486% → 18%
MORGDrive 27DOWNS6 plays · 6 yds · 0:2721% → 18%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
81.8%
Duce Taylor pass complete to for 10 yds to the MORG 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:52
Bryan McCoy 13 Yd Fumble Return (Noah Perez Kick)
+69.2
TD · Q3 1:55
Duce Taylor pass complete to Treveyon Pratt for 12 yds for a TD (Beckett Leary KICK)
-32
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+18.2