Try the model
USA

South Alabama 44 at Texas State 52

TXST
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · T. Finley takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:08: Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 18 yds for a TD (DJ Thomas-Jones pass to for Two-Point Conversion) — USA win probability +18.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:41: Desmond Trotter pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 1 yd for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +16.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:35: TJ Finley pass complete to Donerio Davenport for 10 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +15.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:57: Desmond Trotter pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — USA win probability +12.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:31: TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 24 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +12.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:19TXST 4th & 8 at USA 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    37.8%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:26USA 4th & 13 at USA 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:47USA 4th & 6 at USA 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:05TXST 4th & 7 at USA 11, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−5.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:08USA 4th & 4 at TXST 39, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    31.8%−2.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:53USA 4th & 13 at USA 44, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−2.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:06USA 4th & 14 at TXST 33, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:55TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 38, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    80.7%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:52TXST 4th & 11 at USA 46, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    84.8%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:55USA 4th & 11 at TXST 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%
    40% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:48TXST 4th & 17 at TXST 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−3.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:04USA 4th & 3 at TXST 3, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−2.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 12:05TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:47TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:38TXST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:08USA Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    40.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:55TXST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:08USA Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:41USA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:35TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:57USA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    19.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    19.6%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:31TXST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:04TXST Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:02USA Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:4131% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
30.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+27
30.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 27 yds to the USA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
30.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the USA 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
30.7%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
30.7%
TJ Finley run for no gain to the USA 42Similar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
31.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
32.9%
Kaleb Culp 31 Yd Fumble Return (Mason Shipley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3567% → 66%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
32.9%
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the USA 35Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+4
32.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 4 yds to the USA 39Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 5
OWN 39
-8
32.9%
Carter Bradley sacked by Ben Bell for a loss of 8 yards to the USA 31Similar
Q1 10:26
4TH & 13
OWN 31
0
34.4%
Jack Martin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the TXST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:3934% → 38%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
34.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 4 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
34.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the TXST 36Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
34.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
34.6%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ismail MahdiSimilar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+13
34.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 13 yds to the USA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
38.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 48 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:0063% → 60%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
37.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 2 yds to the USA 36Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
37.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 2 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 10
OWN 34
-5
37.7%
PENALTY USA False Start (Carney,Malachi) 5 yards from USA34 to USA29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 15
OWN 29
+9
37.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 9 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
40.5%
Jack Martin punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the TXST 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:0941% → 52%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
41.3%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+31
41.3%
Donerio Davenport run for 31 yds to the USA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
42.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the USA 47Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+13
41.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Konner Fox for 13 yds to the USA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
42.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 9 yds to the USA 25Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+13
42.0%
South Alabama Penalty, Face Mask (13 yards) (Dalton Hughes) to the USA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
42.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 9 yds to the USA 4Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+3
42.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the USA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.5%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7FG
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:3152% → 59%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
51.6%
Kole Wilson run for 4 yds to the USA 41Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+27
50.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 27 yds to the USA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
51.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the USA 14Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
51.6%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+3
51.2%
TJ Finley run for 3 yds to the USA 11Similar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
59.4%
Mason Shipley 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 1:5742% → 48%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
57.7%
Braylon McReynolds run for 11 yds to the USA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
57.5%
Braylon McReynolds run for 11 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
57.7%
Braylon McReynolds run for 3 yds to the TXST 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
57.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+3
58.2%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 3 yds to the TXST 39Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+39
52.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Javon Ivory for 39 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 3:0244% → 47%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.9%
Braylon McReynolds run for 2 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+20
55.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Javon Ivory for 20 yds to the USA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 5
OPP 48
+2
56.8%
Braylon McReynolds run for 2 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 3
OPP 46
-5
56.5%
Carter Bradley sacked by Deven Wright for a loss of 5 yards to the USA 49Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 8
OWN 49
-5
60.5%
Carter Bradley sacked by Kalil Alexander for a loss of 5 yards to the USA 44 Carter Bradley fumbled, recovered by USA Malachi Carney , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
53.5%
Jack Martin punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the TXST 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:5957% → 64%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+19
57.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 19 yds to the TXST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the TXST 25Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
55.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 16 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
58.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-7
57.8%
TJ Finley sacked by Khalil Jacobs for a loss of 7 yards to the TXST 36Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+18
64.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 18 yds Chris Dawn Jr. fumbled, recovered by USA Marquise Robinson No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,TJ pass complete short left to Dawn, Jr.,Chris for 18 yards to the USA46 fumbled by Dawn, Jr.,Chris at USA49 forced by Jacobs,Khalil recovered by USA Robinson,Marquise at USA46 Robinson,Marquise return 25 yards to the TXST29 (Wilson,Kole; Todd,Chayse).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:4841% → 26%
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
59.4%
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the TXST 28Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
59.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 9
OPP 28
-5
61.0%
PENALTY USA Delay Of Game 5 yards from TXST28 to TXST33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 14
OPP 33
0
63.3%
Carter Bradley pass intercepted return for no gain to the TXST 33Similar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 14
OPP 33
+51
74.5%
Diego Guajardo 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
13 plays · 25 yds · 5:0880% → 87%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+4
79.6%
Donerio Davenport run for 4 yds to the TXST 23Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 16
OWN 23
+14
79.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 14 yds to the TXST 37Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+1
79.6%
Donerio Davenport run for 1 yd to the TXST 38Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+2
83.7%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TXST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
84.8%
Donerio Davenport run for no gain to the TXST 40Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+14
84.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 14 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
85.0%
Donerio Davenport run for 2 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
84.8%
Donerio Davenport run for 3 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 11
OPP 46
0
88.0%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
86.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13TD
14 plays · 91 yds · 1:4417% → 37%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
82.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 2 yds to the USA 11Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+14
82.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 14 yds to the USA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
82.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 18 yds to the USA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
81.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 11 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
79.9%
PENALTY USA False Start (Strickland,Adrein) 5 yards from TXST46 to USA49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 15
OWN 49
0
81.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for no gain to the USA 49Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+10
84.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 10 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+10
82.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Javon Ivory for 10 yds to the TXST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
81.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
81.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 5 yds to the TXST 26Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+8
81.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 8 yds to the TXST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
63.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 18 yds for a TD (DJ Thomas-Jones pass to for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14MISSED FG
13 plays · 27 yds · 3:0231% → 30%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
68.6%
Braylon McReynolds run for 7 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
67.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to DJ Thomas-JonesSimilar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+4
67.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 4 yds to the USA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
66.3%
Desmond Trotter run for 1 yd to the USA 46Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+18
68.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 18 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
65.8%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 2 yds to the TXST 38Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+1
66.8%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 1 yd to the TXST 37Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 11
OPP 37
0
67.1%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jacob HopperSimilar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 11
OPP 37
+55
70.2%
Diego Guajardo 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:0774% → 75%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
74.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 5 yds to the TXST 42Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
74.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 45Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+7
73.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 7 yds to the USA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
75.3%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
75.1%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-7
74.0%
TJ Finley sacked by Quentin Wilfawn for a loss of 7 yards to the TXST 45Similar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
75.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 3:0726% → 46%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
73.9%
Braylon McReynolds run for no gain to the USA 17Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+19
74.4%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 19 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+51
72.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 51 yds to the TXST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
68.6%
Braylon McReynolds run for 2 yds to the TXST 11Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+8
68.6%
Braylon McReynolds run for 8 yds to the TXST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
68.0%
Braylon McReynolds run for 2 yds to the TXST 1Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 1 yd for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0668% → 88%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
67.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 11 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+39
68.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 39 yds to the USA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
71.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+16
70.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 16 yds to the USA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
71.1%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Konner FoxSimilar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+1
72.7%
TJ Finley run for 1 yd to the USA 10Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
88.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Donerio Davenport for 10 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18INT
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:5319% → 17%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
81.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 26 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
78.1%
Braylon McReynolds run for 13 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
77.6%
South Alabama Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the TXST 44Similar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 18
OPP 44
+4
78.5%
Braylon McReynolds run for 4 yds to the TXST 40Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+1
78.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 1 yd to the TXST 41Similar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 15
OPP 41
0
83.4%
Desmond Trotter pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19INT
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:4895% → 96%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
95.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+17
95.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 17 yds to the TXST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
95.5%
TJ Finley pass intercepted Khalil Jacobs return for no gain to the TXST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20TD
3 plays · 28 yds · 1:1518% → 30%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
82.4%
Braylon McReynolds run for 16 yds to the TXST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
82.3%
Braylon McReynolds run for no gain to the TXST 12Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
69.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:1983% → 98%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
82.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 8 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+35
84.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 35 yds to the USA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
85.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the USA 24Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
97.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 24 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22TD
17 plays · 63 yds · 7:2510% → 10%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
89.6%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 4 yds to the USA 41Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
89.5%
Braylon McReynolds run for no gain to the USA 41Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+17
89.7%
Desmond Trotter run for 17 yds to the TXST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 18
50
+10
90.1%
Desmond Trotter run for 10 yds to the TXST 40Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+9
89.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 9 yds to the TXST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
87.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 8 yds to the TXST 23Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+7
87.4%
Braylon McReynolds run for 7 yds to the TXST 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
87.4%
Braylon McReynolds run for 11 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 21
OPP 27
+8
88.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 8 yds to the TXST 19Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+16
94.8%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Javon Ivory for 16 yds to the TXST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.0%
run for 3 yds to the TXST 6 fumbled, recovered by USA Desmond Trotter No Huddle-Shotgun South Alabama rush middle for 3 yards loss to the TXST06 fumbled by South Alabama at TXST03 recovered by USA Trotter,Desmond at TXST06, End Of Play.Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
94.2%
Desmond Trotter run for 1 yd to the TXST 5Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
94.6%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 2 yds to the TXST 3Similar
Q4 4:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.6%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 3 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 0:5798% → 100%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
97.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the USA 42Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
97.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the USA 42Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+41
97.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Konner Fox for 41 yds to the USA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 1:522% → 9%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
97.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Marco Lee Jr. for 8 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
97.4%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-16
97.4%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Marco Lee Jr. for 4 yds to the TXST 24 South Alabama Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dontae Lucas) to the TXST 34Similar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 5
OPP 28
-15
97.4%
PENALTY USA UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Lucas,Dontae) 15 yards from TXST28 to TXST43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 20
OPP 43
-1
98.0%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Kalil Alexander for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 44 Desmond Trotter fumbled, recovered by USA Braylon McReynolds , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+23
97.6%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 23 yds to the TXST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
97.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 3 yds to the TXST 8Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+3
97.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 3 yds to the TXST 5Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
90.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jacob Hopper for 5 yds for a TD (Braylon McReynolds pass to for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
98.9%
T. Finley takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 12
OWN 44
-5
98.9%
T. Finley takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 39
-4
98.9%
T. Finley takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:08
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 18 yds for a TD (DJ Thomas-Jones pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
-18.4
TD · Q3 6:41
Desmond Trotter pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 1 yd for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
-16.5
TD · Q3 3:35
TJ Finley pass complete to Donerio Davenport for 10 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
+15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com