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TROY

Troy 35 at Southern Miss 17

USM
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:34 · (00:34) [NH] Kneel down by TRO at USM36 (team loss of 2).
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:41: Frank Gore Jr. run for 57 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +5.4 pts (now 28%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:23: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 2 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +9.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:37: Chris Rodgers 40 Yd Fumble Return (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick) — TROY win probability +8.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:57: Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 18 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +9.3 pts (now 18%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:20: Chris Lewis pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 30 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +8.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:42USM 4th & 14 at USM 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:20TROY 4th & 4 at USM 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:33USM 4th & 16 at TROY 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    17.4%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:24USM 4th & 12 at USM 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:21USM 4th & 2 at TROY 2, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.0%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:05TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:00USM 4th & 10 at USM 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:31TROY 4th & 2 at USM 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    74.6%−1.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:50USM 4th & 3 at TROY 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    27.2%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:25TROY 4th & 1 at midfield, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.7%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:07TROY 4th & 22 at TROY 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−4.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:14USM 4th & 27 at USM 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−2.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:44USM 4th & 20 at USM 42, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:49TROY 4th & 1 at USM 34, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:30TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:41USM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:03TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:23TROY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:37TROY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:57USM Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:20TROY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1814% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.4%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
14.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 28Similar
Q1 14:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-7
14.7%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Terry Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the USM 21Similar
Q1 13:42
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
15.0%
Bryce Lofton punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:1585% → 84%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
15.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 11 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
15.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
15.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 6 yds to the USM 41Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
15.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:20
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+3
15.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 3 yds to the USM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:3016% → 17%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+33
15.9%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 33 yds to the TROY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
16.4%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 30Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 11
OPP 30
-4
16.7%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Jayden McDonald and T.J. Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 34Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 15
OPP 34
-1
16.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 35Similar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 16
OPP 35
0
16.9%
Bryce Lofton punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:5783% → 84%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
17.1%
Gunnar Watson run for 7 yds to the TROY 27Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+35
17.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 35 yds to the USM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
17.0%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 39Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+15
17.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 15 yds to the USM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
17.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the USM 21Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+13
17.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 13 yds to the USM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
17.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the USM 2Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:5917% → 17%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-6
16.8%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Malaki Pegues for a loss of 6 yards to the USM 21Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 16
OWN 21
0
16.8%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 16
OWN 21
-10
16.6%
(04:35) CRAWFORD, Ethan pass to the right complete for 33 yards to JONES, Latreal caught at the USM35 and advanced to the TRO46 (STEWARD, Reddy). PENALTY USM Holding on RAMSEY, Bryce enforced 10 yards from the USM21 to the USM11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 26
OWN 11
+14
16.7%
Ethan Crawford run for 14 yds to the USM 25Similar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
16.7%
Bryce Lofton punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:3083% → 83%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
17.0%
Damien Taylor run for 17 yds to the TROY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
16.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+12
16.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 12 yds Devonte Ross fumbled, recovered by USM Jay Stanley (02:46) [NHSG] WATSON, Gunnar pass to the right complete for 12 yards to ROSS, Devonte caught at the USM46, ROSS, Devonte fumbled at USM44 forced by DANIELS, MJ, recovered by USM STANLEY, Jay at the USM43, returned 8 yards to the TRO49 (OLLENDIECK, Clayton;DANIELS, MJ), clock 02:32.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 4:1118% → 22%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
18.2%
Ethan Crawford run for no gain to the TROY 49Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
18.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the TROY 49Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+26
17.9%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 26 yds to the TROY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
19.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the TROY 23Similar
Q1 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+18
19.4%
Rodrigues Clark run for 18 yds to the TROY 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
19.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the TROY 3Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
19.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the TROY 1Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
19.4%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 2Similar
Q2 13:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
21.7%
Andrew Stein 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:1679% → 79%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
20.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
20.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the TROY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
20.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
20.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
20.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
21.3%
Robert Cole punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:1422% → 28%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
21.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds to the USM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
22.1%
Ethan Crawford run for 12 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
27.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 57 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3273% → 80%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.6%
Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the TROY 30Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
26.5%
(10:01) WATSON, Gunnar pass to the left incomplete dropped by CONNER, Ethan thrown to the TRO45. PENALTY USM Unnecessary Roughness on LAWRENCE, Dylan enforced 15 yards from the TRO30 to the TRO45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
25.5%
Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 5
50
0
25.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 5
50
+37
25.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 37 yds to the USM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
20.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 13 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:0323% → 23%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.8%
Ethan Crawford run for 7 yds to the USM 32Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
24.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
23.3%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
23.0%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-5
22.2%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USM 31Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+18
21.8%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 18 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
24.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 48Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+1
24.1%
Ethan Crawford run for 1 yd to the USM 49Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
23.6%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
23.1%
Bryce Lofton punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:2077% → 77%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
23.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+16
23.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 16 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
22.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+17
22.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 17 yds to the USM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
21.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the USM 43Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+4
22.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 4 yds to the USM 39Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+2
21.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the USM 37Similar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
22.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:3625% → 27%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
25.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the USM 41Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+15
26.7%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 15 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
27.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+4
27.9%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 4 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+1
27.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the TROY 37Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
27.3%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14INT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:3976% → 79%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
23.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 14 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
22.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the USM 43Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
22.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+9
22.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the USM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
21.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
21.5%
Gunnar Watson pass intercepted, touchback. Chris Lewis return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3075% → 86%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
25.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 9 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
24.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the TROY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
24.1%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 40Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+10
25.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 1
50
0
24.2%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 1
50
+2
26.0%
Gunnar Watson run for 2 yds to the USM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
24.5%
(11:54) WATSON, Gunnar pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ROSS, Devonte thrown to the USM23. PENALTY USM Holding on DANIELS, MJ enforced 10 yards from the USM48 to the USM38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+24
24.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 24 yds to the USM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
23.6%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the USM 12Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+3
23.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 3 yds to the USM 9Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+7
23.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 7 yds to the USM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
14.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 2 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16FUMBLE RETURN TD
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:4616% → 10%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
15.6%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 23Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
15.4%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 15 yds to the USM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
16.7%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Micheal Caraway Jr. for 9 yds to the USM 47Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
17.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
17.9%
Ethan Crawford run for no gain to the TROY 49Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
17.5%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+40
9.5%
Chris Rodgers 40 Yd Fumble Return (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 4:329% → 18%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
9.1%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
8.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 40Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+13
8.9%
Ethan Crawford run for 13 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
9.6%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 7 yds to the TROY 40Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
9.6%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+3
9.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
9.5%
Tiaquelin Mims run for 4 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+1
9.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the TROY 32Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+14
8.5%
Ethan Crawford run for 14 yds to the TROY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
8.9%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
18.2%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 18 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4385% → 85%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
14.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 16 yds to the TROY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
12.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
12.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-14
12.9%
Gunnar Watson run for a loss of 14 yards to the TROY 31 Gunnar Watson fumbled, recovered by TROY (14:53) [NHSG] QB Keeper WATSON, Gunnar rush up the middle for a loss of 14 yards, WATSON, Gunnar fumbled at TRO43 forced by CARR, Josh, recovered by TRO GILMORE, Billy at the TRO31, returned 0 yards to the TRO31, End of Play.Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 22
OWN 31
0
15.1%
Robert Cole punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -17 yds · 1:4414% → 12%
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
14.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the USM 32Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-1
13.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 31Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 11
OWN 31
-16
12.8%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Malaki Pegues and Chris Rodgers for a loss of 16 yards to the USM 15Similar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 27
OWN 15
0
11.7%
Bryce Lofton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 0:4788% → 97%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
11.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Asa Martin for 13 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
11.0%
(11:34) WATSON, Gunnar pass to the left incomplete intended for CONNER, Ethan thrown to the USM25. PENALTY USM Holding on DANIELS, MJ enforced 10 yards from the USM40 to the USM30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
2.8%
Chris Lewis pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 30 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:354% → 4%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
4.0%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
3.9%
Ethan Crawford run for 6 yds to the USM 21Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+4
3.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the USM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
4.0%
Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
3.9%
Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
4.0%
Troy Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jordan Stringer) to the TROY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
4.2%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
4.2%
Ethan Crawford run for 2 yds to the TROY 46Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-12
4.1%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Luis Medina for a loss of 12 yards to the USM 42Similar
Q4 6:44
4TH & 20
OWN 42
0
3.5%
Bryce Lofton punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22END OF GAME
12 plays · 55 yds · 6:0497% → 99%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
2.8%
Jordan Lovett run for 1 yd to the TROY 10Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+5
2.4%
Southern Miss Penalty, Personal Foul (5 Yards) to the TROY 15Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+15
2.3%
Southern Miss Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jay Stanley) to the TROY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
2.0%
Jordan Lovett run for 2 yds to the TROY 32Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+25
1.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Brody Dalton for 25 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
1.5%
Jordan Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 44Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+10
1.3%
Jordan Lovett run for 10 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
1.3%
Jordan Lovett run for no gain to the USM 34Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
1.0%
Jarris Williams run for 2 yds to the USM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
0.8%
(01:13) [NH] Kneel down by TRO at USM34 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 12
OPP 34
0
0.8%
(00:34) [NH] Kneel down by TRO at USM36 (team loss of 2).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:23
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 2 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q3 0:57
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 18 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)
+9.3
TD · Q4 11:20
Chris Lewis pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 30 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-8.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com