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GASO

Georgia Southern 27 at App State 55

APP
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-5.2APP 63.1%Michael Lantz 38 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 17 · Q2 2:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:33 · Michael Lantz 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Home team on offense−3.2Pregame prior+13.8Score differential−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:25: JC French pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 25 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — GASO win probability +6.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:35: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 27 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +5.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q2 7:19: Kanye Roberts run for 13 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +9.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:55: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 41 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +8.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:16: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +7.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 4GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 10:25APP 4th & 8 at APP 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:03APP 4th & 7 at GASO 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:44APP 4th & 4 at APP 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:19GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:33GASO 4th & 2 at APP 20, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.7%−0.9
    75% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−5.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:17GASO 4th & 21 at GASO 42, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−2.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:40GASO 4th & 4 at midfield, down 24
    Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:38APP 4th & 11 at APP 24, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:12GASO 4th & 15 at APP 16, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:21GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 37, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 7GASO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:44GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:25GASO Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:35APP Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:19APP Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:55APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:16APP Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:38APP Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:56APP Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:20APP Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASODrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1625% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.8%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Jjay McafeeSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+39
74.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to OJ Arnold for 39 yds to the APP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+25
74.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 25 yds to the APP 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
74.8%
OJ Arnold run for 4 yds to the APP 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+4
74.8%
Davis Brin run for 4 yds to the APP 3Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
73.5%
OJ Arnold run for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:1974% → 72%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.7%
Kanye Roberts run for no gain to the APP 25Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
73.7%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
73.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kanye Roberts for 13 yds to the APP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
73.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Miller GibbsSimilar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
73.8%
Kanye Roberts run for 2 yds to the APP 40Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
73.7%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
72.4%
Mitchell Lake punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:4628% → 29%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
72.4%
Davis Brin run for no gain to the GASO 27Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+16
72.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 16 yds to the GASO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 15
OWN 38
0
72.3%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Khaleb HoodSimilar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 15
OWN 38
0
71.1%
Davis Brin pass intercepted Tyrek Funderburk return for no gain to the APP 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 4:3672% → 71%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
71.5%
Kanye Roberts run for 1 yd to the APP 37Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+26
71.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 26 yds to the GASO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+8
72.3%
Kanye Roberts run for 8 yds to the GASO 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
72.3%
Joey Aguilar run for no gain to the GASO 5Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
72.3%
Kanye Roberts run for 2 yds to the GASO 3Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+4
72.0%
Milan Tucker run for 4 yds to the GASO 7Similar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
72.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 9 yds to the GASO 13Similar
Q1 4:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
71.1%
Michael Hughes 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:3830% → 37%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
70.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 7 yds to the GASO 42Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
70.1%
OJ Arnold run for 2 yds to the GASO 44Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+9
70.2%
OJ Arnold run for 9 yds to the APP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
69.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to OJ Arnold for 7 yds to the APP 40Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+7
69.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 7 yds to the APP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
69.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 8 yds to the APP 25Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 2
OPP 25
0
69.6%
OJ Arnold pass incomplete to Derwin Burgess Jr.Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+25
63.3%
JC French pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 25 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:1664% → 63%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
63.5%
Anderson Castle run for 6 yds to the APP 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
63.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
63.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Milan TuckerSimilar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
62.9%
Mitchell Lake punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the GASO 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 3:2537% → 40%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
63.2%
OJ Arnold run for 6 yds to the GASO 37Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+1
62.9%
OJ Arnold run for 1 yd to the GASO 38Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+4
62.9%
Davis Brin run for 4 yds to the GASO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
62.6%
OJ Arnold run for no gain to the GASO 42Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+5
63.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 5 yds to the GASO 42Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
63.1%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Derwin Burgess Jr.Similar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
59.6%
Alex Smith punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 3:4460% → 68%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
59.8%
Anderson Castle run for 3 yds to the APP 18Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+23
59.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 23 yds to the APP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
60.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 4 yds to the APP 45Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-7
61.0%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Da'Shawn Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the APP 38Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+12
59.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
61.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 13 yds to the GASO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
62.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 5 yds to the GASO 27Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+27
67.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 27 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
74.1%
Kanye Roberts run for 13 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 4:4629% → 37%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 6 yds to the GASO 31Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
70.6%
OJ Arnold run for 6 yds to the GASO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
70.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 21 yds to the APP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
69.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 14 yds to the APP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 20
OPP 38
+2
70.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 2 yds to the APP 36Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 18
OPP 36
+10
70.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 10 yds to the APP 26Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+6
68.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 6 yds to the APP 20Similar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+38
63.1%
Michael Lantz 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:3868% → 79%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
67.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Michael Hetzel for 7 yds to the APP 32Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
69.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 5 yds to the APP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
68.7%
Kanye Roberts run for 11 yds to the APP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
70.1%
Kanye Roberts run for 5 yds to the GASO 47Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+6
70.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 6 yds to the GASO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
70.6%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+41
79.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 41 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1423% → 23%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
76.6%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Jjay McafeeSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
76.9%
Davis Brin pass intercepted Tyrek Funderburk return for no gain to the GASO 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13FG
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:3479% → 82%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
79.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kanye Roberts for 14 yds to the GASO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
79.6%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dashaun DavisSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+14
79.6%
Joey Aguilar run for 14 yds to the GASO 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
78.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dashaun DavisSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
78.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+28
81.6%
Michael Hughes 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14INT
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:2381% → 82%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+37
80.7%
Kanye Roberts run for 37 yds to the GASO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+25
82.1%
Kanye Roberts run for 25 yds to the GASO 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
82.2%
Kanye Roberts run for 1 yd to the GASO 15Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
81.6%
Joey Aguilar pass intercepted TJ Smith return for no gain to the GASO 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
81.0%
Davis Brin pass intercepted Jordan Favors return for no gain to the GASO 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:5012% → 10%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
88.5%
OJ Arnold run for 9 yds to the GASO 24Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+3
87.7%
OJ Arnold run for 3 yds to the GASO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
88.2%
JC French run for 10 yds to the GASO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
87.6%
OJ Arnold run for 2 yds to the GASO 39Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+14
87.7%
JC French pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 14 yds to the APP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-6
86.6%
JC French sacked by Michael Fletcher for a loss of 6 yards to the GASO 47Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 16
OWN 47
0
88.5%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 16
OWN 47
0
88.7%
JC French pass incomplete to David MbadingaSimilar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 21
OWN 42
0
90.3%
Alex Smith punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 2:3992% → 97%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
92.2%
Anderson Castle run for 8 yds to the APP 24Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+29
92.3%
Anderson Castle run for 29 yds to the GASO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
92.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 4 yds to the GASO 43Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
92.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for no gain to the GASO 43Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+8
92.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Michael Hetzel for 8 yds to the GASO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
97.3%
Anderson Castle run for 15 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:504% → 3%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
96.2%
OJ Arnold run for 3 yds to the GASO 29Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
96.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 5 yds to the GASO 34Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+10
96.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 10 yds to the GASO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
96.0%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Derwin Burgess Jr.Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
96.0%
OJ Arnold run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 4
50
0
96.0%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 4
50
0
96.8%
Alex Smith punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:5899% → 100%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
98.7%
Anderson Castle run for 8 yds to the APP 28Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+14
98.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 14 yds to the APP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
98.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 9 yds to the GASO 49Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+4
99.1%
Joey Aguilar run for 4 yds to the GASO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
99.2%
Kanye Roberts run for 3 yds to the GASO 42Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+30
99.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 30 yds to the GASO 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.3%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dashaun DavisSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+2
99.4%
Kanye Roberts run for 2 yds to the GASO 10Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
99.8%
Kaedin Robinson 10 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)Similar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.8%
PENALTY App UNR: Unnecessary Roughness 15 yards from GASO35 to GASO50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT TD
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:0499% → 100%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.3%
Kanye Roberts run for 1 yd to the APP 24Similar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
99.3%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Eli WilsonSimilar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
99.5%
Mitchell Lake punt for 48 yds , Khaleb Hood returns for no gain to the GASO 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 5:261% → 1%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
98.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 1 yd to the GASO 26Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+14
98.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 14 yds to the GASO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 3 yds to the GASO 43Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+9
98.8%
David Mbadinga run for 9 yds to the APP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
98.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 10 yds to the APP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
98.8%
David Mbadinga run for 11 yds to the APP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
98.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 6 yds to the APP 21Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+10
98.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to David Mbadinga for 10 yds to the APP 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-7
98.6%
Davis Brin sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the APP 18Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 17
OPP 18
0
98.7%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Dalen CobbSimilar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 17
OPP 18
+2
98.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 2 yds to the APP 16Similar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 15
OPP 16
+34
99.1%
Michael Lantz 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:52100% → 100%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
99.7%
Maquel Haywood run for 20 yds to the APP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
99.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 14 yds to the GASO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
99.7%
Maquel Haywood run for 7 yds to the GASO 34Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+1
99.7%
Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the GASO 33Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+3
99.8%
Maquel Haywood run for 3 yds to the GASO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
99.8%
Maquel Haywood run for 3 yds to the GASO 27Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+27
100.0%
M. Haywood run for 27 yds for a TD (M. Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:570% → 0%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
100.0%
OJ Arnold run for 3 yds to the GASO 33Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
OJ Arnold run for 3 yds to the GASO 36Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+6
100.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 6 yds to the GASO 37Similar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+2
100.0%
OJ Arnold run for 2 yds to the GASO 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
100.0%
D. Hernandez takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 37
-2
100.0%
D. Hernandez takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:19
Kanye Roberts run for 13 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
+9.5
TD · Q2 0:55
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 41 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
+8.5
TD · Q3 13:16
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
+7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com