Try the model
UL

Louisiana 24 at Troy 31

TROY
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:25 · Thomas Leo punt for 39 yds , returns for no gain to the UL 35 , returns for no gain to the UL 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Pregame prior+20.7Home team on offense−0.8Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:39: Kimani Vidal run for 13 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +7.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:33: Chandler Fields pass complete to Neal Johnson for 4 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +16.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:24: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 9 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +19.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:19: Chandler Fields pass complete to Terrance Carter for 4 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +30.2 pts (now 52%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:46: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 8 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +25.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 11:53TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:37UL 4th & 12 at TROY 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    16.9%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:18TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:18UL 4th & 1 at TROY 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    17.2%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55TROY 4th & 4 at UL 26, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.4%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    73.8%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:43UL 4th & 12 at TROY 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:49TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 10, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:56UL 4th & 10 at TROY 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−4.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:25UL 4th & 23 at UL 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−3.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:41TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:22UL 4th & 12 at UL 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:02TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−2.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:05UL 4th & 22 at UL 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 2:41UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:39TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:21TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:33UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:24TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:19UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:46TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:0784% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
84.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 12 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
84.4%
Gunnar Watson run for 3 yds to the TROY 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+7
84.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
84.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
84.4%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the UL 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
84.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 46
-5
84.4%
Troy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TROY 49Similar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
83.5%
Robert Cole punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:1617% → 18%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
83.5%
Jacob Kibodi run for 14 yds to the UL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
83.5%
Louisiana Penalty, False Start (Jacob Kibodi) to the UL 29Similar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 15
OWN 29
0
83.5%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+16
83.5%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 16 yds to the UL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
83.4%
Chandler Fields run for 4 yds to the UL 49Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
83.3%
Jacob Kibodi run for no gain to the UL 49Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+12
83.4%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Charles Robertson for 12 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
83.3%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Charles Robertson for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 41Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 12
OPP 41
-1
83.3%
Zylan Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 42Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 13
OPP 42
+1
83.5%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Jacob Kibodi for 1 yd to the TROY 41Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
82.2%
Thomas Leo punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1982% → 82%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
82.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
82.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
81.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:18
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
81.6%
Robert Cole punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 4:3718% → 24%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
81.8%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Robert Williams for 5 yds to the UL 39Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+3
81.6%
Zylan Perry run for 3 yds to the UL 42Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+13
81.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Robert Williams for 13 yds to the TROY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
81.5%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
81.5%
Chandler Fields run for 12 yds to the TROY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
81.3%
Chandler Fields sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 5 yards to the TROY 38Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 15
OPP 38
0
81.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Dre'lyn Washington for no gain to the TROY 38Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+14
81.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 14 yds to the TROY 24Similar
Q1 7:18
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+10
81.7%
Chandler Fields run for 10 yds to the TROY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
76.0%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Robert Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:4677% → 78%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
77.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 13 yds to the TROY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
77.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+27
78.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 27 yds to the UL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
78.8%
Gunnar Watson run for 4 yds to the UL 28Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+2
78.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the UL 26Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
76.4%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the UL 26Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+44
78.1%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:1222% → 24%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.6%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Charles Robertson for 5 yds to the UL 30Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
77.8%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 14 yds to the UL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
76.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 17 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
76.7%
Jacob Kibodi run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 41Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
76.8%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
77.2%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Neal Johnson for no gain to the TROY 41Similar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
76.2%
Thomas Leo punt for 40 yds, downed at the TROY 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5476% → 73%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
75.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the TROY 8Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 3
OWN 8
0
75.6%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TROY 8Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+2
75.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 2 yds to the TROY 10Similar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
73.3%
Robert Cole punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:5326% → 34%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
74.0%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 1 yd to the UL 36Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
73.9%
WASHINGTON, Dre'lyn rush to the left for a loss of 1 yard to the LA35 (PIERCE, AJ;EDWARDS, Zach). PENALTY TRO Offsides on PEGUES, Malaki enforced 5 yards from the LA36 to the LA41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+14
73.3%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Dre'lyn Washington for 14 yds to the TROY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
73.0%
FIELDS, Chandler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Robert thrown to the TRO15. PENALTY TRO Pass Interference on STEWARD, Reddy enforced 15 yards to the TRO30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
72.5%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Jaydon Johnson for 12 yds to the TROY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
72.4%
Zylan Perry run for no gain to the TROY 18Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
72.5%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
73.2%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
66.3%
Kenneth Almendares 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 1:1768% → 79%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+43
68.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 43 yds to the UL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
70.8%
Asa Martin run for 7 yds to the UL 13Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+13
78.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 13 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 2:1426% → 26%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
73.9%
Chandler Fields sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 7 yards to the UL 18Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-9
74.2%
Chandler Fields sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 9 yards to the UL 9Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 26
OWN 9
+3
75.1%
Jacob Kibodi run for 3 yds to the UL 12Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 23
OWN 12
+39
74.5%
Thomas Leo punt for 39 yds , returns for no gain to the UL 35 , returns for no gain to the UL 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
11 plays · 35 yds · 3:2378% → 84%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
78.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the UL 32Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+8
78.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 8 yds to the UL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
78.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the UL 22Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
78.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+10
77.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 10 yds to the UL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
78.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 8 yds to the UL 4Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 2
OPP 4
0
77.0%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the UL 4Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
75.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the UL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.2%
Jacob Kibodi run for 3 yds to the UL 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13INT
5 plays · 32 yds · 2:3919% → 20%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
80.9%
Jacob Kibodi run for 2 yds to the UL 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+30
80.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 30 yds to the TROY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-7
78.6%
Chandler Fields sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 7 yards to the TROY 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 38
+7
80.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 7 yds to the TROY 31Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
79.6%
Chandler Fields pass intercepted Irshaad Davis return for no gain to the TROY 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:4082% → 81%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
82.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 23Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
81.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
81.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the TROY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
82.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
83.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
82.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 4
OWN 39
-5
81.2%
Troy Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the TROY 34Similar
Q3 9:41
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
81.8%
punt for 35 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for no gain to the UL 27Similar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
81.0%
FIELDS, Chandler pass to the left complete for -4 yards to FIELDS, Chandler caught at the LA23 and advanced to the LA23, End of Play. PENALTY TRO Offsides on CUTTS, Raymond enforced 5 yards from the LA27 to the LA32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 5:0820% → 39%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 5
OWN 32
+19
79.7%
Zylan Perry run for 19 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
78.8%
Zylan Perry run for 7 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+5
78.4%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Robert Williams for 5 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
78.8%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Zylan Perry for 16 yds to the TROY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
77.2%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 8 yds to the TROY 13Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+3
77.2%
Jacob Kibodi run for 3 yds to the TROY 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
77.2%
Chandler Fields run for 5 yds to the TROY 5Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
77.2%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Robert Williams for 1 yd to the TROY 4Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
60.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Neal Johnson for 4 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 6:0968% → 89%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
68.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 19Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
68.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+14
66.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 14 yds to the TROY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
68.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+7
71.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the TROY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
71.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 12 yds to the UL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
72.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
72.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the UL 42Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+11
71.0%
Damien Taylor run for 11 yds to the UL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
73.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 11 yds to the UL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
71.5%
Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the UL 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 14
-1
71.5%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+6
70.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Landon Parker for 6 yds to the UL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
89.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 9 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 3:0216% → 14%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
84.1%
Zylan Perry run for 16 yds to the UL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
83.4%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Zylan Perry for 7 yds to the UL 37Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+5
82.0%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 5 yds to the UL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
82.6%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
82.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Pearse Migl for 3 yds to the UL 45Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-5
82.9%
Chandler Fields sacked by Zach Edwards and Malaki Pegues for a loss of 5 yards to the UL 40Similar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
85.6%
Thomas Leo punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2088% → 87%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
87.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 12Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+1
87.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TROY 13Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
86.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
86.6%
Robert Cole punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:4318% → 52%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
82.5%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+14
82.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 14 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+40
80.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Neal Johnson for 40 yds to the TROY 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
78.4%
Zylan Perry run for no gain to the TROY 4Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
48.2%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Terrance Carter for 4 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3362% → 94%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
61.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
59.2%
WATSON, Gunnar pass deep to the right incomplete intended for ROSS, Devonte thrown to the LA45. PENALTY LA Pass Interference on MENSAH, Patrick enforced 15 yards to the TRO40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
64.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 1 yd to the TROY 41Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
64.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+16
61.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 16 yds to the UL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
67.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 11 yds to the UL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
68.7%
Jabre Barber pass complete to Devonte Ross for 20 yds to the UL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
68.7%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the UL 8Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
68.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
93.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 8 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 1:4112% → 10%
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.3%
Zylan Perry run for no gain to the UL 25Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
88.4%
FIELDS, Chandler pass to the right incomplete intended for BROUSSARD, Harvey thrown to the LA40; QB hurried by STRINGER, Jordan. PENALTY LA Holding on JACKSON, George enforced 10 yards from the LA25 to the LA15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+3
88.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Jacob Kibodi for 3 yds to the UL 18Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
89.4%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:46
4TH & 17
OWN 18
-5
89.8%
Louisiana Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jordan Lawson) to the UL 13Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
90.4%
punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the UL 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22END OF GAME
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:0595% → 97%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
95.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 16 yds to the UL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
96.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the UL 26Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+2
96.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the UL 24Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+5
97.0%
Louisiana Penalty, Offsides (Tyler Guidry) to the UL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
97.2%
[NHSG] Kneel down by WATSON, Gunnar at LA21 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 21
0
97.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by WATSON, Gunnar at LA23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:19
Chandler Fields pass complete to Terrance Carter for 4 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
-30.2
TD · Q4 3:46
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 8 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+25.2
TD · Q4 13:24
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 9 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+19.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com