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MRSH

Marshall 0 at South Alabama 28

USA
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:37 · Jack Martin punt for 54 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Pregame prior+25.1Home team on offense+5.4Score differential+3.0Garbage-time factor+1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:02: Jamaal Pritchett 25 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Carter Bradley Pass to La'Damian Webb for Two-Point Conversion) — USA win probability +3.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 15:00: No Huddle-Shotgun Bradley,Carter pass complete short middle to Lacy,Caullin for 26 yards to the USA41 (Neal,Eli) PENALTY USA Personal Foul (Buys,Reed) 7 yards from USA15 to USA08. NO PLAY. — USA win probability +2.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 6:23: Carter Bradley pass incomplete to DJ Thomas-Jones — USA win probability +2.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:19: Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 8 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +5.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:15: La'Damian Webb run for 6 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10MRSH made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 10:37USA 4th & 3 at MRSH 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.9%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    73.5%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:38USA 4th & 4 at MRSH 25, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.9%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:51MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:42MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 30, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:37USA 4th & 3 at USA 24, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00MRSH 4th & 2 at USA 48, down 16
    Close callPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:01USA 4th & 26 at MRSH 40, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    84.4%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:23MRSH 4th & 20 at MRSH 20, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−1.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:19USA 4th & 3 at MRSH 8, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    86.3%−0.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:07MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:07MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:15USA 4th & 9 at USA 33, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:21MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 15:00USA 4th & 1 at MRSH 32, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%−1.9
    51% to make
    Punt
    91.5%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:28USA 4th & 1 at MRSH 1, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    94.8%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−2.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:15MRSH 4th & 8 at MRSH 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:01USA 4th & 4 at USA 37, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:06MRSH 4th & 7 at USA 46, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    1.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:30MRSH 4th & 5 at USA 28, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:30USA 4th & 6 at MRSH 39, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 5:02USA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    76.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 10:15USA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1INT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1819% → 19%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
80.9%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 6 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-5
80.9%
PENALTY MAR False Start (Mottillo,Chris) 5 yards from MAR28 to MAR23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
80.9%
Rasheen Ali run for no gain to the MRSH 23Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
80.6%
Cole Pennington pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:0081% → 80%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
80.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the MRSH 48Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+1
80.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the MRSH 47Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+11
80.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 11 yds to the MRSH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
80.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamaal PritchettSimilar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
80.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the MRSH 32Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+3
80.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 3 yds to the MRSH 29Similar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+47
80.1%
Diego Guajardo 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3720% → 20%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.0%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the MRSH 29Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
80.0%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Rasheen AliSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
80.0%
Cole Pennington pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2280% → 81%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-6
80.3%
Carter Bradley sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the MRSH 37Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 16
OPP 37
+7
80.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 7 yds to the MRSH 30Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
80.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+5
79.9%
PENALTY MAR Delay Of Game (Neal,Eli) 5 yards from MAR30 to MAR25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
80.5%
Diego Guajardo 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4720% → 20%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.2%
Rasheen Ali run for no gain to the MRSH 25Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the MRSH 21Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+8
80.4%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 8 yds to the MRSH 29Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+19
80.4%
John McConnell punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 49 , Caullin Lacy returns for 19 yds to the USA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:4981% → 84%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
80.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the MRSH 49Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+8
80.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 8 yds to the MRSH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
80.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 16 yds to the MRSH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
84.1%
Jamaal Pritchett 25 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Carter Bradley Pass to La'Damian Webb for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q1 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
84.1%
Bradley,Carter pass attempt failed PENALTY MAR Pass Interference (McGhee,AG) 1 yard from MAR03 to MAR02. NO PLAY. (La'Damian Webb pass to for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2017% → 17%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.6%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the MRSH 27Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
82.6%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Caleb CoombsSimilar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+3
82.7%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 3 yds to the MRSH 30Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
83.3%
John McConnell punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0584% → 84%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
84.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the USA 17Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+7
84.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 7 yds to the USA 24Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
84.1%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Kentrel BullockSimilar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
84.0%
Jack Martin punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:3717% → 17%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
82.6%
PENALTY MAR False Start (Mottillo,Chris) 5 yards from MAR22 to MAR17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+13
82.7%
Rasheen Ali run for 13 yds to the MRSH 30Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+14
82.4%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 14 yds to the MRSH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
82.4%
Cole Pennington pass complete to A.J. Turner for 5 yds to the MRSH 49Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+3
82.2%
Ethan Payne run for 3 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
82.2%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Jayden HarrisonSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
82.7%
John McConnell punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
14 plays · 45 yds · 5:5985% → 88%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
85.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bradley,Carter pass complete short middle to Lacy,Caullin for 26 yards to the USA41 (Neal,Eli) PENALTY USA Personal Foul (Buys,Reed) 7 yards from USA15 to USA08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 17
OWN 8
+2
85.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the USA 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 10
+5
85.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the USA 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+27
84.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 27 yds to the USA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
87.0%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the USA 42Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
86.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 11 yds to the MRSH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
87.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 11 yds to the MRSH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
87.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the MRSH 37Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+13
87.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 13 yds to the MRSH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
87.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 4 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 14
OPP 28
0
86.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jeremiah WebbSimilar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 14
OPP 28
-12
86.7%
Carter Bradley sacked by Stephen Dix Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the MRSH 40Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 26
OPP 40
0
88.2%
Jack Martin punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:3814% → 13%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
86.5%
Rasheen Ali run for 5 yds to the MRSH 25Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+5
86.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Pennington,Cole pass incomplete short left to Sallis,Sean PENALTY USA Offside (Voisin,Jaden) 5 yards from MAR25 to MAR30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
86.2%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 2 yds to the MRSH 32Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+6
86.2%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 6 yds to the MRSH 38Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+18
86.0%
Cole Pennington run for 18 yds to the MRSH 20Similar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 20
OWN 20
+5
87.3%
John McConnell punt for 35 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 3:0490% → 94%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
50
0
89.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to DJ Thomas-JonesSimilar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 10
50
+35
89.5%
Braylon McReynolds run for 35 yds to the MRSH 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
89.6%
Braylon McReynolds run for 5 yds to the MRSH 20Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+10
89.5%
Braylon McReynolds run for 10 yds to the MRSH 10Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+2
89.4%
Braylon McReynolds run for 2 yds to the MRSH 8Similar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+8
94.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 8 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:126% → 6%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
93.6%
Rasheen Ali run for 6 yds to the MRSH 20Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+1
93.4%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Ethan Payne for 1 yd to the MRSH 19Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
93.6%
Ethan Payne run for no gain to the MRSH 19Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 5
OWN 19
+14
93.8%
John McConnell punt for 46 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 14 yds to the USA 49Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 5
OWN 19
+14
93.8%
John McConnell punt for 46 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 14 yds to the USA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:5295% → 95%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
95.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 2 yds to the USA 30Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+3
94.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 3 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+6
95.5%
Braylon McReynolds run for 6 yds to the USA 33Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
95.4%
Jack Martin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Mason Pierce at the MRSH 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:544% → 4%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.8%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Caleb CoombsSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.8%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 5 yds to the MRSH 30Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-10
95.2%
Marshall Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MRSH 27Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+2
96.0%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Sean Sallis for 2 yds to the MRSH 29Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+41
96.2%
John McConnell punt for 49 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 41 yds to the MRSH 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
95.7%
Carter Bradley sacked by Elijah Alston for a loss of 2 yards to the MRSH 43 Carter Bradley fumbled, recovered by MRSH Eli Neal , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:124% → 4%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
95.8%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 2 yds to the MRSH 45Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+10
95.9%
Cole Pennington pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 10 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.6%
Cole Pennington pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18DOWNS
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:3295% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
94.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 34 yds to the MRSH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
95.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the MRSH 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+1
95.2%
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the MRSH 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+6
95.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 6 yds to the MRSH 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+3
94.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the MRSH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
95.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 10 yds to the MRSH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
95.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the MRSH 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+5
95.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the MRSH 11Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
95.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the MRSH 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
95.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the MRSH 3Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
95.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the MRSH 2Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
95.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the MRSH 1Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.3%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the MRSH 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 4:134% → 3%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
96.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the MRSH 3Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+5
96.3%
PENALTY USA Offside (Voisin,Jaden) 5 yards from MAR03 to MAR08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 3
OWN 8
0
96.3%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Jayden HarrisonSimilar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+6
96.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 6 yds to the MRSH 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
96.2%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the MRSH 16Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+7
96.2%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Ethan Payne for 7 yds to the MRSH 23Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
96.1%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the MRSH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Jayden HarrisonSimilar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.2%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the MRSH 27Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
96.2%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Jayden HarrisonSimilar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
97.2%
John McConnell punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1496% → 97%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
96.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamaal PritchettSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
96.4%
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the USA 30Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+7
96.3%
Braylon McReynolds run for 7 yds to the USA 37Similar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
97.4%
Jack Martin punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Mason Pierce at the MRSH 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:553% → 2%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
97.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 8 yds to the MRSH 26Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 2
OWN 26
-5
97.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Pennington,Cole pass incomplete short right to Harris,DeMarcus QB hurried by Coleman III,Charles PENALTY MAR Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Driskell,Ethan) 5 yards from MAR26 to MAR21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
97.4%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Rasheen AliSimilar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+19
97.4%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 19 yds to the MRSH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
97.2%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 11 yds to the USA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
97.2%
Ethan Payne run for 2 yds to the USA 47Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-10
97.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Pennington,Cole rush right for 6 yards gain to the USA41, out of bounds at USA41 PENALTY MAR Holding (Tucker,Dalton) 10 yards from USA47 to MAR43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 43
+11
98.4%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Caleb McMillan for 11 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
98.3%
Rasheen Ali run for no gain to the USA 46Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
98.5%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Darryle SimmonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 3:5199% → 100%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
98.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 6
50
0
98.6%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 6
50
+13
98.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 13 yds to the MRSH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
98.6%
Shotgun McReynolds,Braylon rush left for 9 yards gain to the MAR28 (Russell,Elijah) PENALTY USA Holding (Smith,Reggie) 10 yards from MAR37 to MAR47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+3
98.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 3 yds to the MRSH 44Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 17
OPP 44
+38
98.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 38 yds to the MRSH 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 6 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:380% → 0%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
99.9%
Cole Pennington pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 18 yds to the MRSH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.9%
Cole Pennington pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 6 yds to the MRSH 47Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+5
99.9%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Sean Sallis for 5 yds to the USA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
99.9%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Darryle Simmons for 15 yds to the USA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Sean SallisSimilar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
99.9%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 4 yds to the USA 29Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+1
99.9%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 1 yd to the USA 28Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 5
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Cole Pennington pass incomplete to Jayden HarrisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24END OF GAME
13 plays · 63 yds · 7:30100% → 100%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
Desmond Trotter run for 5 yds to the USA 33Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+1
99.9%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 1 yd to the USA 34Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+8
99.9%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 8 yds to the USA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 2 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+5
99.9%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 5 yds to the USA 49Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+8
99.9%
Desmond Trotter run for 8 yds to the MRSH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Todd JusticeSimilar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
99.9%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 1 yd to the MRSH 42Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+3
99.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Dorian Smith for 3 yds to the MRSH 39Similar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 6
OPP 39
+17
99.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Javon Ivory for 17 yds to the MRSH 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
99.9%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 1 yd to the MRSH 21Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+7
99.9%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 7 yds to the MRSH 14Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+5
100.0%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 5 yds to the MRSH 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:19
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 8 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+5
TD · Q1 5:02
Jamaal Pritchett 25 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Carter Bradley Pass to La'Damian Webb for Two-Point Conversion)
+3.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 15:00
No Huddle-Shotgun Bradley,Carter pass complete short middle to Lacy,Caullin for 26 yards to the USA41 (Neal,Eli) PENALTY USA Personal Foul (Buys,Reed) 7 yards from USA15 to USA08. NO PLAY.
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com