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APP

App State 26 at James Madison 23

JMU
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Bridgeforth Stadium
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Win probability · JMU
modelJMU aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playJMU scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Joey Aguilar pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 14:56: Eli Wilson 16 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick) — APP win probability +18.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 8:20: Jordan McCloud 6 Yd Run (Camden Wise Kick) — JMU win probability +18.0 pts (now 42%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 3:55: Michael Hughes 30 Yd Field Goal — APP win probability +15.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:57: Elijah Sarratt 11 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Jordan McCloud Pass to Elijah Sarratt for Two-Point Conversion) — JMU win probability +60.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Camden Wise 25 Yd Field Goal — JMU win probability +16.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
JMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:10APP 4th & 5 at APP 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:15JMU 4th & 11 at APP 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:03APP 4th & 9 at JMU 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    24.8%−<0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:13JMU 4th & 10 at JMU 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:55APP 4th & 5 at JMU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:02JMU 4th & 5 at APP 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:23APP 4th & 10 at APP 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:45JMU 4th & 22 at APP 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−1.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00APP 4th & 6 at APP 49, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:34JMU 4th & 10 at JMU 45, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:56APP 4th & 9 at APP 32, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−3.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:41JMU 4th & 3 at JMU 38, down 5
    Close callPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:21JMU 4th & 11 at APP 20, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−2.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−12.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:55APP 4th & 5 at JMU 12, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−14.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:22JMU 4th & 18 at APP 38, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%
    38% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2APP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 5:16APP Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 14:56APP Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:20JMU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:57JMU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    23.5%−6.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5032% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.9%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the APP 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
67.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:10
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
67.8%
Mitchell Lake punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:5568% → 67%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
67.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 7 yds to the APP 49Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
67.9%
Ty Son Lawton run for 2 yds to the APP 47Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+1
67.9%
Ty Son Lawton run for 1 yd to the APP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
67.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 7 yds to the APP 39Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 3
OPP 39
0
67.9%
Kaelon Black run for no gain to the APP 39Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 3
OPP 39
-5
67.9%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (Tyler Stephens) to the APP 44Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 8
OPP 44
-3
67.9%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Michael Fletcher for a loss of 3 yards to the APP 47Similar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
67.2%
Ryan Hanson punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:1233% → 33%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
67.3%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the APP 24Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+39
67.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 39 yds to the JMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
66.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
66.8%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the JMU 36Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
66.9%
Joey Aguilar run for no gain to the JMU 36Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
66.8%
Mitchell Lake punt for 32 yds, downed at the JMU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5067% → 66%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
66.7%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
66.7%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 10
OWN 4
0
66.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for no gain to the JMU 4Similar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 10
OWN 4
0
66.2%
Ryan Hanson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the JMU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 4:1834% → 35%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
65.9%
AGUILAR, Joey scrambles to the right for no gain to the JMU47 (KROMAH, Jamree;BUSH, Immanuel). PENALTY JMU Face mask on KROMAH, Jamree enforced 15 yards from the JMU47 to the JMU32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
65.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 10 yds to the JMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
65.7%
Kanye Roberts run for 2 yds to the JMU 20Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+6
65.7%
Dalton Stroman run for 6 yds to the JMU 14Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+4
65.9%
James Madison Penalty, Face mask (4 yards) (Jamree Kromah) to the JMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
65.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 3 yds to the JMU 2Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
65.7%
Kanye Roberts run for no gain to the JMU 2Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
65.9%
Anderson Castle run for a loss of 3 yards to the JMU 5Similar
Q1 2:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
64.7%
Michael Hughes 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 6FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 4:4865% → 66%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
64.7%
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the JMU 26Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+8
64.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 8 yds to the JMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
64.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Julio Ayamel for 12 yds to the JMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
65.9%
Kaelon Black run for 7 yds to the APP 47Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+10
66.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 10 yds to the APP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
65.5%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (Josh Toner) to the APP 42Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+20
64.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 20 yds to the APP 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
66.0%
Jordan McCloud run for 2 yds to the APP 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+3
66.0%
Ty Son Lawton run for 3 yds to the APP 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
65.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:02
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+35
66.3%
Camden Wise 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3336% → 35%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
64.3%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the APP 39Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-5
63.4%
AGUILAR, Joey pass to the left incomplete intended for HORN, Christan thrown to the APP37; QB hurried by KROMAH, Jamree. PENALTY APP Illegal Touch-Pass on DALEY, Damion enforced 5 yards from the APP39 to the APP34, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+1
65.2%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the APP 35Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
65.3%
Mitchell Lake punt for 57 yds, downed at the JMU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:3865% → 64%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
65.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 3 yds to the JMU 11Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+11
65.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 11 yds to the JMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+28
65.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
50
+23
67.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 23 yds to the APP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
67.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
67.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Yamir Knight for 4 yds to the APP 23Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 6
OPP 23
-10
67.2%
MCCLOUD, Jordan pass short to the left complete for 7 yards to KNIGHT, Yamir caught at the APP18 and advanced to the APP16 (FUNDERBURK, Tyrek). PENALTY JMU Holding on MORRIS, Tanner enforced 10 yards from the APP23 to the APP33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 16
OPP 33
-6
66.0%
Jordan McCloud sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the APP 39Similar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 22
OPP 39
0
64.0%
Ryan Hanson punt for 37 yds, downed at the APP 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9SF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
62.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+2
62.9%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the APP 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:2868% → 68%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
67.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 4 yds to the JMU 36Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-3
68.4%
Jordan McCloud run for a loss of 3 yards to the JMU 33 Jordan McCloud fumbled, recovered by APP Nick Ross, returned 0 yards to the JMU33, End of Play,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 1:0637% → 47%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+27
63.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 27 yds to the JMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
63.0%
Maquel Haywood run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 8Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
53.3%
Kaedin Robinson 8 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 12INT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:2157% → 56%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
56.3%
Appalachian State Penalty, Targeting on DAVIS, Thomas enforced (Dashaun Davis) to the APP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
59.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
59.2%
Ty Son Lawton run for 7 yds to the APP 37 fumbled, recovered by JMU Jordan McCloud at the APP37, returned 0 yards to the APP37, Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+4
59.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 4 yds to the APP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-6
60.7%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Nate Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the APP 39Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 16
OPP 39
-5
57.9%
James Madison Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jordan McCloud) to the APP 44Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 21
OPP 44
0
56.0%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Ethan Johnson return for no gain to the APP 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:5548% → 49%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
52.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 8 yds to the APP 41Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+4
50.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Nate Noel for 4 yds to the APP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
50.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 3 yds to the APP 48Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
50.5%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+1
49.1%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the APP 49Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
50.7%
Mitchell Lake punt for 40 yds, downed at the JMU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2156% → 50%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
55.7%
Ty Son Lawton run for a loss of 5 yards to the JMU 40Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 15
OWN 40
0
53.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+5
52.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 5 yds to the JMU 45Similar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
50.1%
Ryan Hanson punt for 43 yds, downed at the APP 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:3851% → 50%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
49.3%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the APP 14Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+17
49.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 17 yds to the APP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
48.5%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the APP 32Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
48.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
50.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
50.2%
Mitchell Lake punt for 37 yds, downed at the JMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1551% → 49%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
50.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Julio Ayamel for 4 yds to the JMU 35Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
51.8%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the JMU 38Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
51.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
48.6%
Ryan Hanson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:2052% → 55%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
47.6%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the APP 13Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+11
47.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 11 yds to the APP 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
47.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 16 yds to the APP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
45.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
45.7%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the APP 42Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+5
45.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 5 yds Carter Miller fumbled, recovered by JMU D'Angelo Ponds at the APP 47. returned 0 yards to the APP 47, Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 18MISSED FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 3:0052% → 47%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
52.3%
Ty Son Lawton run for 12 yds to the APP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
53.9%
Ty Son Lawton run for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 36Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+2
52.1%
Jordan McCloud run for 2 yds to the APP 34Similar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
54.0%
Ty Son Lawton run for 4 yds to the APP 15Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+1
54.0%
Ty Son Lawton run for 1 yd to the APP 14Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-6
52.1%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Nate Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the APP 20Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+38
47.4%
Camden Wise 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:2556% → 84%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
44.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
44.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 4 yds to the APP 24Similar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+9
45.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 9 yds to the APP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
43.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kanye Roberts for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
50
+4
40.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to David Larkins for 4 yds to the JMU 46Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
40.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kanye Roberts for 2 yds to the JMU 44Similar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
41.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 5 yds to the JMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
40.7%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+10
40.7%
James Madison Penalty, Defensive Holding (Immanuel Bush) to the JMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
39.0%
Anderson Castle run for no gain to the JMU 26Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
39.5%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+10
34.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Anderson Castle for 10 yds to the JMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
16.3%
Eli Wilson 16 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 20TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:3624% → 42%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.9%
Ty Son Lawton run for 1 yd to the JMU 26Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
23.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 3 yds to the JMU 29Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
23.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 8 yds to the JMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
24.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 7 yds to the JMU 44Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
25.9%
Ty Son Lawton run for 4 yds to the JMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
21.2%
Kaelon Black run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 46Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+16
20.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 16 yds to the APP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
22.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+12
21.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 12 yds to the APP 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
24.0%
Jordan McCloud run for 10 yds to the APP 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
24.0%
Ty Son Lawton run for 8 yds to the APP 8Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 2
OPP 8
0
24.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+4
22.7%
Latrele Palmer run for 4 yds to the APP 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
24.0%
Latrele Palmer run for a loss of 2 yards to the APP 6Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
24.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
42.0%
Jordan McCloud 6 Yd Run (Camden Wise Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:1971% → 91%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
29.0%
Anderson Castle run for 2 yds to the APP 20Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+20
29.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 20 yds to the APP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
25.5%
Anderson Castle run for 3 yds to the APP 43Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+10
25.6%
AGUILAR, Joey pass deep to the left incomplete intended for STROMAN, Dalton broken up by PONDS, D'Angelo at the JMU20. PENALTY JMU Holding on PONDS, D'Angelo enforced 10 yards from the APP43 to the JMU47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
24.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 19 yds to the JMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
22.5%
Anderson Castle run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 30Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
23.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+13
25.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 13 yds to the JMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
22.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
22.6%
Anderson Castle run for 5 yds to the JMU 12Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
24.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+30
8.6%
Michael Hughes 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 22TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 2:5814% → 65%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
13.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 5 yds to the JMU 30Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
13.8%
Jordan McCloud run for 8 yds to the JMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
15.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+20
15.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 20 yds to the APP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
18.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 7 yds to the APP 35Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+5
21.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 5 yds to the APP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-8
12.1%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Michael Fletcher for a loss of 8 yards to the APP 38Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 18
OPP 38
0
8.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 18
OPP 38
0
4.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 18
OPP 38
+27
4.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 27 yds to the APP 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
65.2%
Elijah Sarratt 11 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Jordan McCloud Pass to Elijah Sarratt for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23INT
8 plays · 55 yds · 0:4148% → 59%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
51.7%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 0
+27
52.4%
Anderson Castle run for 27 yds to the APP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
49.0%
Anderson Castle run for 5 yds to the APP 32Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
48.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Anderson Castle for 3 yds to the APP 35Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+7
48.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Anderson Castle for 7 yds to the APP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
45.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 13 yds to the JMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
41.3%
Joey Aguilar pass intercepted D'Angelo Ponds return for no gain to the JMU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
56.8%
[NHSG] Kneel down by MCCLOUD, Jordan at JMU9 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 25FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0066% → 80%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
65.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 18 yds to the APP 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
65.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
65.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
63.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
80.1%
Camden Wise 25 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 26TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
71.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 17 yds to the JMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
71.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
71.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-71.4
TD · Q4 0:57
Elijah Sarratt 11 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Jordan McCloud Pass to Elijah Sarratt for Two-Point Conversion)
+60.9
TD · Q4 14:56
Eli Wilson 16 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Michael Hughes Kick)
-18.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com