Try the model
TROY

Troy 45 at UL Monroe 14

ULM
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Malone Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:48 · Braxton Guilbeau punt for 47 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Pregame prior−41.4Home team on offense−3.0Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:11: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 5 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +1.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:52: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 4 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +1.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:36: Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 46 yds for a TD (Braxton Guilbeau KICK) — ULM win probability +6.8 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:13: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 5 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:27: Goose Crowder pass complete to Asa Martin for 9 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +2.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 8TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 14:05TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:48ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:48ULM 4th & 4 at TROY 26, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.4%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:51ULM 4th & 8 at TROY 11, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:40TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 24, up 21
    Close callPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:46ULM 4th & 4 at TROY 11, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:16TROY 4th & 16 at TROY 40, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:35ULM 4th & 19 at ULM 16, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:42TROY 4th & 10 at ULM 34, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    95.6%
    47% to make
    Punt
    95.3%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:48ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 41, down 21
    Close callPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:44TROY 4th & 16 at TROY 14, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:29TROY 4th & 2 at ULM 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    89.8%−0.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−4.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:04TROY 4th & 4 at ULM 15, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−5.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:36ULM 4th & 7 at TROY 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:58TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:45ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 26, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 5:55TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:11TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:52TROY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:36ULM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:13TROY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:07ULM Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:27TROY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:56TROY Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5594% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
6.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
6.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:05
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
6.6%
Robert Cole punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2Uncategorized
12 plays · 28 yds · 4:197% → 8%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
6.6%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Hunter Smith for 5 yds to the ULM 39Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+16
6.6%
Jiya Wright run for 16 yds to the TROY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
6.6%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
6.6%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 13 yds to the TROY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
6.6%
Bennett Galloway run for 6 yds to the TROY 26Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 4
OPP 26
0
6.6%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+5
6.6%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Alred Luke for 5 yds to the TROY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
6.6%
Hunter Smith run for 2 yds to the TROY 19 Hunter Smith fumbled, recovered by ULM Hunter Smith [NHSG] SMITH, Hunter rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards, SMITH, Hunter fumbled at TRO21 forced by JIBUNOR, Richard, recovered by ULM SMITH, Hunter at the TRO19, returned 0 yards to the TRO19, End of Play.Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-5
6.6%
UL Monroe Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jiya Wright) to the TROY 24Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 13
OPP 24
-7
6.6%
Jiya Wright sacked by Richard Jibunor and AJ Pierce for a loss of 7 yards to the TROY 31Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 20
OPP 31
0
6.6%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 20
OPP 31
-5
8.0%
UL Monroe Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Jiya Wright) to the TROY 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:5192% → 92%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
8.0%
VIDAL, Kimani rush up the middle for a loss of 2 yards to the TRO34 (RANDLE, Travor;HOWELL, Dylan). PENALTY ULM Face mask enforced 13 yards from the TRO36 to the TRO49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
7.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+10
7.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 10 yds to the ULM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
7.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the ULM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
7.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the ULM 24Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+11
7.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Brody Dalton for 11 yds to the ULM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
7.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the ULM 10Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+8
7.8%
WATSON, Gunnar pass to the left incomplete intended for LEWIS, Chris thrown to the ULM0. PENALTY ULM Pass Interference on TILLERY, Lucius enforced 8 yards to the ULM2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
7.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the ULM 1Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Damien Taylor for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:018% → 9%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
8.3%
Isaiah Woullard run for no gain to the ULM 28Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
8.2%
Isaiah Woullard run for 6 yds to the ULM 34Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 4
OWN 34
-1
8.3%
Jiya Wright sacked by Terry Thomas and Javon Solomon for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 33Similar
Q1 3:48
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
8.7%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 5:3791% → 92%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+22
8.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 22 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
8.5%
Damien Taylor run for no gain to the TROY 44Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-5
8.6%
Troy Penalty, Delay Of Game (Gunnar Watson) to the TROY 39Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+9
8.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 9 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+6
8.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 6 yds to the ULM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
8.4%
Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the ULM 44Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+11
8.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 11 yds to the ULM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
9.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 4 yds to the ULM 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+16
9.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 16 yds to the ULM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
9.1%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 5 yards to the ULM 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+6
9.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the ULM 5Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
7.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 5 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6MISSED FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:237% → 7%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
7.0%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 20 yds to the ULM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
7.3%
Bennett Galloway run for 2 yds to the ULM 47Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
7.3%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+21
7.3%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 21 yds to the TROY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
7.5%
Jiya Wright run for 1 yd to the TROY 31Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
7.5%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+5
7.3%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Alred Luke for 5 yds to the TROY 26Similar
Q2 9:48
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
7.1%
Braxton Guilbeau 43 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:5693% → 95%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
7.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Brody Dalton for 17 yds to the ULM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
7.4%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the ULM 29Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
7.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
7.4%
Jabre Barber run for 1 yd to the ULM 13Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+2
6.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 2 yds to the ULM 11Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+7
6.5%
Jabre Barber run for 7 yds to the ULM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 4 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:014% → 6%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
4.2%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Bud Tolbert for 16 yds to the ULM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
4.5%
Troy Penalty, Offsides (Eric Shaw) to the ULM 46Similar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 5
OWN 46
+41
4.3%
Bennett Galloway run for 41 yds to the TROY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
4.8%
Jiya Wright pass complete to NyNy Davis for 2 yds to the TROY 11Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-2
5.4%
Jiya Wright sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 13Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+2
5.3%
Bennett Galloway run for 2 yds to the TROY 11Similar
Q2 3:51
4TH & 8
OPP 11
-6
5.5%
Jiya Wright sacked by Richard Jibunor and Javon Solomon for a loss of 6 yards to the TROY 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1195% → 95%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
4.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
4.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+7
4.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 7 yds to the TROY 24Similar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
4.9%
Robert Cole punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10DOWNS
11 plays · 52 yds · 1:545% → 5%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+20
5.1%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Hunter Smith for 20 yds to the ULM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
5.4%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 10 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
5.5%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 6 yds to the TROY 43Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+9
5.0%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Alred Luke for 9 yds to the TROY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
5.7%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
5.6%
Jiya Wright run for 2 yds to the TROY 32 Jiya Wright fumbled, recovered by ULM [NHSG] QB Keeper WRIGHT, Jiya rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards, WRIGHT, Jiya fumbled at TRO32 forced by MCDONALD, Jayden out of bounds to the TRO32.Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+15
5.5%
WRIGHT, Jiya pass deep to the left incomplete intended for DAVIS, NyNy thrown to the TRO7. PENALTY TRO Pass Interference on DAVIS, Irshaad enforced 15 yards to the TRO17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
5.8%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+6
5.7%
Jiya Wright pass complete to NyNy Davis for 6 yds to the TROY 11Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 4
OPP 11
0
4.7%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 4
OPP 11
-16
5.1%
Jiya Wright sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 16 yards to the TROY 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:3097% → 97%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
3.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 19 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
2.6%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Dylan Howell for a loss of 10 yards to the TROY 36Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 20
OWN 36
0
2.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 20
OWN 36
+4
3.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 40Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 16
OWN 40
0
2.8%
Robert Cole punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
5.2%
Hunter Smith run for 5 yds to the ULM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:256% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
5.5%
Hunter Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
5.5%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Hunter Smith for 3 yds to the ULM 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-11
5.5%
Jiya Wright sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 11 yards to the ULM 16Similar
Q3 13:45
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
5.5%
BRAUN, Brady punt 46 yards to the TRO38 out of bounds, out of bounds, clock 13:45. PENALTY TRO Holding ULM Tripping , Offsetting penalties [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
5.5%
Brady Braun punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:5396% → 97%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
4.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
4.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 11 yds to the ULM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
3.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 6 yds to the ULM 38Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+4
3.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the ULM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
3.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
3.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for no gain to the ULM 34Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
4.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
3.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:546% → 5%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
5.7%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
5.6%
Isaiah Woullard run for 7 yds to the ULM 41Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
6.0%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
5.3%
Brady Braun punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 2:0497% → 97%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
3.2%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 17Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 13
OWN 17
-5
3.3%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Kenard Snyder for a loss of 5 yards to the TROY 12Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 18
OWN 12
+2
3.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 14Similar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
3.1%
Robert Cole punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tyrone Howell at the TROY 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17TD
1 play · 46 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
9.8%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 46 yds for a TD (Braxton Guilbeau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:2593% → 94%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
7.1%
UL Monroe Penalty, Defensive Holding (Markeegan Gray) to the ULM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
6.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
6.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+6
7.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the ULM 26Similar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+5
7.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 5 yds to the ULM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
6.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+6
6.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 6 yds to the ULM 15Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 4
OPP 15
0
6.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
5.6%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:184% → 4%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
4.0%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
3.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+1
3.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for 1 yd to the TROY 32Similar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 7
OPP 32
0
3.7%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:2396% → 99%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
4.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 9 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+7
4.3%
Damien Taylor run for 7 yds to the TROY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
4.2%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the ULM 49Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+18
4.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Landon Parker for 18 yds to the ULM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
4.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
3.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Asa Martin for 7 yds to the ULM 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+19
3.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 19 yds to the ULM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
1.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 5 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:061% → 2%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.9%
Jiya Wright pass complete to NyNy Davis for 4 yds to the ULM 29Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-7
0.9%
Jiya Wright sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 7 yards to the ULM 22Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+22
0.9%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 22 yds to the ULM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
0.9%
Jiya Wright sacked by Javon Solomon and Richard Jibunor for a loss of 8 yards to the ULM 36Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 18
OWN 36
0
0.9%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 18
OWN 36
+15
0.9%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Bennett Galloway for 15 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+10
0.7%
WRIGHT, Jiya pass to the left incomplete intended for WILEY, Dariyan thrown to the TRO38, clock 10:42. PENALTY TRO Pass Interference on STEWARD, Reddy enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the TRO39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
0.7%
Isaiah Woullard run for 5 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+3
0.8%
Jiya Wright run for 3 yds to the TROY 31Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+17
0.8%
Jiya Wright run for 17 yds to the TROY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
0.8%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 12 yds to the TROY 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
0.9%
Jiya Wright sacked by Reddy Steward and Javon Solomon for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 3Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
2.4%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Bud Tolbert for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Stagg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0597% → 97%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
2.7%
Goose Crowder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
2.8%
Goose Crowder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
2.8%
Goose Crowder run for no gain to the TROY 36Similar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
2.6%
Robert Cole punt for 51 yds , returns for no gain to the ULM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23TD
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:3198% → 100%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
2.5%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Asa Martin for no gain to the ULM 13Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
2.5%
Goose Crowder run for 4 yds to the ULM 9Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
0.5%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Asa Martin for 9 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:420% → 1%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.3%
Charlie Norman run for 1 yd to the ULM 26Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
0.3%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
0.3%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
0.3%
Brady Braun punt for 35 ydsSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
0.5%
CROWDER, Goose pass deep to the left incomplete intended for PARKER, Landon thrown to the ULM26. PENALTY ULM Pass Interference on VOLMAR, Andrew enforced 15 yards to the ULM46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:49100% → 100%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
0.5%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the ULM 43Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+19
0.5%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Landon Parker for 19 yds to the ULM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
0.5%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the ULM 22Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
0.5%
Goose Crowder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+17
0.5%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Ethan Conner for 17 yds to the ULM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.1%
Tae Meadows run for 5 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.0%
Charlie Norman run for 3 yds to the ULM 28Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
0.0%
Charlie Norman run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 27Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
0.0%
Brian Garcia run for 5 yds to the ULM 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:36
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 46 yds for a TD (Braxton Guilbeau KICK)
+6.8
TD · Q4 14:13
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 5 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-2.5
TD · Q4 5:27
Goose Crowder pass complete to Asa Martin for 9 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com