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GASO

Georgia Southern 33 at Marshall 38

MRSH
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:28 · Alex Smith punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the MRSH 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Home team on offense−6.3Pregame prior−1.5Score differential−3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:32: Caleb McMillan run for 21 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +13.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:07: Davis Brin pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 47 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — GASO win probability +17.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:06: Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +21.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:51: Rasheen Ali 55 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick) — MRSH win probability +20.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:50: Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — GASO win probability +16.3 pts (now 18%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 7GASO made the numbers' call on 10 of 14
  1. Q1 11:17GASO 4th & 6 at MRSH 40, down 8
    Close callPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    50.2%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:08GASO 4th & 16 at MRSH 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:41MRSH 4th & 11 at MRSH 19, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:15GASO 4th & 7 at MRSH 17, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:49MRSH 4th & 4 at GASO 4, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.1%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:49GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:47MRSH 4th & 15 at MRSH 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:47GASO 4th & 2 at MRSH 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−0.5
    81% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−3.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:12GASO 4th & 10 at MRSH 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−2.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−5.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:48GASO 4th & 6 at GASO 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:47MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 28, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:51GASO 4th & 10 at MRSH 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−10.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:56GASO 4th & 3 at MRSH 3, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.7%−2.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−16.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:23MRSH 4th & 2 at MRSH 49, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%−3.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:28GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 22, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−2.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:36MRSH 4th & 3 at MRSH 43, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:00GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 26, up 2
    Close callPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:12GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 42, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%−1.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:18MRSH 4th & 14 at GASO 44, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    83.9%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:47GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 9, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.6%−4.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:36GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 40, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 11:15GASO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:32MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:07GASO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:06MRSH Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:51MRSH Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:41MRSH Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:50GASO Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASODrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 3:2457% → 55%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
43.2%
Khaleb Hood pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
43.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jalen White for 11 yds to the GASO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
43.1%
Georgia Southern Penalty, Illegal Formation (Davis Brin) to the GASO 41Similar
Q1 14:41
1ST & 15
OWN 41
-3
43.2%
Jalen White run for a loss of 3 yards to the GASO 38Similar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 18
OWN 38
+18
43.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 18 yds to the MRSH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
43.1%
Jalen White run for 5 yds to the MRSH 39Similar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
43.1%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-5
44.6%
Georgia Southern Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MRSH 44Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+4
44.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 4 yds to the MRSH 40Similar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
45.3%
Alex Smith punt for 38 yds, downed at the MRSH 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
45.7%
Cole Pennington pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3MISSED FG
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:0255% → 52%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
45.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the MRSH 17Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+5
46.5%
Davis Brin run for 5 yds to the MRSH 12Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 8
OPP 12
-8
46.6%
Davis Brin sacked by Sam Burton for a loss of 8 yards to the MRSH 20Similar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 16
OPP 20
+38
48.2%
Michael Lantz 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2749% → 51%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
49.1%
Rasheen Ali run for a loss of 4 yards to the MRSH 16Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+3
49.1%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Chris Mottillo for 3 yds to the MRSH 19Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
48.9%
Cole Pennington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
50.9%
Matthew Bosset punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2653% → 51%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
47.3%
Jalen White run for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 21Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 11
OPP 21
0
47.5%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+4
47.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 4 yds to the MRSH 17Similar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
48.9%
Michael Lantz 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6FG
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:2653% → 54%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.4%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 3 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+62
53.3%
Cole Pennington pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 62 yds to the GASO 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
56.4%
Ethan Payne run for 8 yds to the GASO 2Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
54.7%
ALI, Rasheen rush to the right for no gain to the GS2 (BARTHOLOMEW, Shemar). PENALTY MAR Holding on WILLIS, Lloyd enforced 10 yards from the GS2 to the GS12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
56.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the GASO 8Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
56.0%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the GASO 4Similar
Q1 2:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
53.6%
Rece Verhoff 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5449% → 47%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.9%
Jalen White run for no gain to the GASO 25Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
51.0%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
51.4%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
52.9%
Alex Smith punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:0256% → 56%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-9
55.6%
Cole Pennington sacked by Isaac Walker for a loss of 9 yards to the MRSH 22Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 19
OWN 22
+1
55.2%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 1 yd to the MRSH 23Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 18
OWN 23
+3
55.9%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the MRSH 26Similar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
55.5%
Matthew Bosset punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:3248% → 56%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+28
51.8%
Jalen White run for 28 yds to the MRSH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
50.5%
Jalen White run for 1 yd to the MRSH 23Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+7
50.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 7 yds to the MRSH 16Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 2
OPP 16
0
51.5%
Jalen White run for no gain to the MRSH 16Similar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 2
OPP 16
-5
52.2%
Georgia Southern Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MRSH 21Similar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+5
52.4%
LANTZ, Michael field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at MAR29], score nullified by penalty. PENALTY Before the snap, MAR Illegal Formation on GIBSON, Isaiah enforced 5 yards from the MAR21 to the MAR16. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+7
52.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 7 yds to the MRSH 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
50.5%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
50.5%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
44.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 5:3949% → 67%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
49.4%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Rasheen Ali for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 25Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+5
49.1%
Rasheen Ali run for 5 yds to the MRSH 30Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+13
48.7%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 13 yds to the MRSH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
51.0%
Rasheen Ali run for 5 yds to the MRSH 48Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+5
51.2%
Rasheen Ali run for 5 yds to the GASO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
51.5%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Talik Keaton for 15 yds to the GASO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
52.0%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the GASO 29Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+4
51.0%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the GASO 25Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+4
52.6%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the GASO 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
66.6%
Caleb McMillan run for 21 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:2536% → 54%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.9%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the GASO 27Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+25
63.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 25 yds to the MRSH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
61.6%
Georgia Southern Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GASO 47Similar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+6
63.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 6 yds to the MRSH 47Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+47
45.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 47 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:5651% → 55%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.7%
Rasheen Ali run for 7 yds to the MRSH 32Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
52.2%
Rasheen Ali run for 6 yds to the MRSH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
52.2%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 4 yds to the MRSH 42Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+10
53.1%
Cole Pennington pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 10 yds DeMarcus Harris fumbled, recovered by MRSH for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-6
55.1%
Cole Pennington sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the MRSH 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:5953% → 56%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
46.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 15 yds to the MRSH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
44.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 6 yds to the MRSH 25Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+5
44.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 5 yds to the MRSH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
44.1%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
44.5%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
45.9%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
44.4%
Michael Lantz 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
43.6%
[NH] Kneel down by MAR at MAR30 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:0758% → 56%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
42.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 2 yds to the GASO 32Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
42.2%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+8
43.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 8 yds to the GASO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
40.9%
Georgia Southern Penalty, False Start (Brian Miller) to the GASO 35Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 15
OWN 35
-1
42.8%
Jalen White run for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 34Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+5
43.1%
Marshall Penalty, Delay Of Game (AG McGhee) to the GASO 39Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
41.9%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
42.9%
Georgia Southern Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:48
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
44.0%
Alex Smith punt for 37 yds, downed at the MRSH 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0144% → 43%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
43.9%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the MRSH 22Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+6
43.8%
Rasheen Ali run for 6 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 1
OWN 28
0
43.5%
Rasheen Ali run for no gain to the MRSH 28Similar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
42.6%
Matthew Bosset punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:5660% → 67%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
39.9%
Jalen White run for 6 yds to the GASO 45Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
39.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 3 yds to the GASO 48Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
39.8%
Davis Brin run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
50
+12
39.0%
Jalen White run for 12 yds to the MRSH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
39.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 16 yds to the MRSH 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
37.6%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
38.0%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
39.5%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:51
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
33.3%
Michael Lantz 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:4536% → 63%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
35.6%
Direct snap to ALI, Rasheen rush up the middle for a gain of 13 yards to the MAR43 (GREEN, Prince). PENALTY MAR Holding on TUCKER, Dalton enforced 10 yards from the MAR30 to the MAR20 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+10
34.8%
Cole Pennington pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 10 yds to the MRSH 30Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+65
34.9%
Cole Pennington pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 65 yds to the GASO 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
41.3%
Cole Pennington run for 3 yds to the GASO 2Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.9%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19FG
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:1044% → 58%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
56.4%
Marshall Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Josh Moten) to the GASO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
52.2%
Marshall Penalty, Delay Of Game (AG McGhee) to the MRSH 48Similar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 5
OPP 48
+43
51.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 43 yds to the MRSH 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
49.9%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
49.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ethan Dirrim for 2 yds to the MRSH 3Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
51.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ethan Dirrim for no gain Ethan Dirrim fumbled, recovered by GASO Ethan Dirrim [NHSG] BRIN, Davis pass to the right complete for 0 yards to DIRRIM, Ethan caught at the MAR4, DIRRIM, Ethan fumbled at MAR3 forced by HILL, D'Yoni, recovered by GS DIRRIM, Ethan at the MAR3, returned 0 yards to the MAR3, End of Play.Similar
Q3 1:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
41.7%
Michael Lantz 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3349% → 49%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
48.5%
KEATON, Talik pass deep to the right complete for 44 yards to MCMILLAN, Caleb caught at the GS26 and advanced to the GS19 (BARTHOLOMEW, Shemar). PENALTY MAR Holding on MOTTILLO, Chris enforced 10 yards from the MAR37 to the MAR27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+15
46.7%
Georgia Southern Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Seth Robertson) to the MRSH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
50.8%
Cole Pennington pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
48.6%
Rasheen Ali run for 8 yds to the MRSH 49Similar
Q3 1:56
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
50.4%
Talik Keaton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
48.9%
Matthew Bosset punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Khaleb Hood at the GASO 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3258% → 58%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
41.7%
Jalen White run for 4 yds to the GASO 19Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+4
40.6%
Dalen Cobb run for 4 yds to the GASO 23Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 2
OWN 23
-1
40.6%
Davis Brin sacked by Mike Green for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 22Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
42.1%
Alex Smith punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the MRSH 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5244% → 43%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
44.4%
Cole Pennington pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
43.5%
Cole Pennington pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+7
41.4%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 7 yds to the MRSH 43Similar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
43.2%
Matthew Bosset punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:3661% → 57%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
38.8%
Jalen White run for a loss of 6 yards to the GASO 14Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+12
40.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 12 yds to the GASO 26Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
39.8%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
42.6%
Alex Smith punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
65.6%
Rasheen Ali 55 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:3928% → 25%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
71.8%
Jalen White run for 9 yds to the GASO 34Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
69.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 3 yds to the GASO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
70.5%
Jalen White run for no gain to the GASO 37Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
71.2%
Jalen White run for 5 yds to the GASO 42Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
69.8%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
74.7%
Alex Smith punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the MRSH 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 26PUNT
12 plays · 39 yds · 4:5468% → 81%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
67.6%
run for 5 yds to the MRSH 22Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+7
67.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 7 yds to the MRSH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
67.7%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the MRSH 32 Rasheen Ali fumbled, recovered by MRSH Cole Pennington [NHSG] ALI, Rasheen rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards, ALI, Rasheen fumbled at MAR29 forced by BARTHOLOMEW, Shemar, recovered by MAR PENNINGTON, Cole at the MAR32, returned 0 yards to the MAR32, End of Play.Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+9
67.6%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Bryan Robinson for 9 yds to the MRSH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
70.5%
Rasheen Ali run for 19 yds to the GASO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-7
71.8%
Ethan Payne run for a loss of 7 yards to the GASO 47Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+2
83.6%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the GASO 45Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+1
82.7%
Cole Pennington pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 1 yd Caleb Coombs fumbled, recovered by MRSH Cole Pennington [NHSG] PENNINGTON, Cole pass to the left complete for 1 yard to COOMBS, Caleb caught at the GS48, COOMBS, Caleb fumbled at GS45 forced by DAVIS, Da'Shawn, recovered by MAR PENNINGTON, Cole at the GS44, returned 0 yards to the GS44, End of Play.Similar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
81.2%
Matthew Bosset punt for 42 yds, downed at the GASO 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3110% → 9%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+7
89.7%
Davis Brin run for 7 yds to the GASO 9Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 3
OWN 9
0
89.6%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 3
OWN 9
0
90.5%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
91.1%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 28TD
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.3%
Rasheen Ali 9 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 29TD
13 plays · 61 yds · 1:462% → 18%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
98.3%
Davis Brin run for 1 yd to the GASO 40Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
98.3%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
98.4%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 9
OWN 40
+20
98.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 20 yds to the MRSH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
98.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 6 yds to the MRSH 34Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
98.0%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+17
98.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 17 yds to the MRSH 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
98.0%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
98.0%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
98.0%
Jalen White run for 6 yds to the MRSH 2Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
98.0%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:5094% → 95%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
94.2%
[NH] Kneel down by MAR at GS44 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 44
0
95.1%
[NH] Kneel down by MAR at GS46 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:06
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
+21.6
TD · Q4 10:51
Rasheen Ali 55 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)
+20.4
TD · Q2 3:07
Davis Brin pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 47 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
-17.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com