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USM

Southern Miss 34 at Louisiana 31

UL
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2023 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:38 · Bryce Lofton punt for 38 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remainingBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 19Pregame prior+20.8Home team on offense−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score differential−0.5Time remaining+0.3Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:47: Kenyon Clay run for 28 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +9.8 pts (now 42%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:34: Zylan Perry 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Kenneth Almendares Kick) — UL win probability +9.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:55: Chandler Fields pass complete to Trayv'on Culbert for 7 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +40.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:26: Ethan Crawford pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 9 yds for a TD (Connor Gibbs KICK) — USM win probability +44.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Kenneth Almendares 34 Yd Field Goal — UL win probability +30.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 8 of 9USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:41UL 4th & 9 at USM 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    73.6%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:38USM 4th & 13 at UL 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:38USM 4th & 13 at UL 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:38UL 4th & 2 at USM 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    72.6%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:06UL 4th & 2 at UL 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:55USM 4th & 19 at USM 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−2.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:55UL 4th & 1 at USM 40, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    69.5%−2.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00UL 4th & 1 at USM 1, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    70.5%−3.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−9.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:52USM 4th & 9 at USM 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:24UL 4th & 6 at UL 18, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:21USM 4th & 2 at UL 27, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.6%−1.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−9.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:26UL 4th & 17 at UL 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−4.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:41USM 4th & 10 at UL 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−10.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:58UL 4th & 1 at USM 1, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    61.1%−5.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−20.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:11USM 4th & 6 at USM 5, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:18UL 4th & 3 at UL 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:13UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:11USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:47USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:34UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:55UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−1.6
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:26USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−3.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:1974% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
73.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 9 yds to the UL 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
73.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Neal Johnson for 11 yds to the UL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
73.6%
Jacob Kibodi run for 17 yds to the USM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
73.6%
Jacob Kibodi run for 2 yds to the USM 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
73.6%
Jacob Kibodi run for no gain to the USM 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+1
73.6%
Jacob Kibodi run for 1 yd to the USM 37Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
73.0%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Jacob BernardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 20 yds · 4:0327% → 28%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
72.9%
Billy Wiles run for 3 yds to the USM 40Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+1
72.8%
Billy Wiles run for 1 yd to the USM 41Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
72.8%
PENALTY LA Offside (Williams,Lance) 5 yards from USM41 to USM46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+7
72.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the UL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
72.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the UL 43Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+8
72.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the UL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
72.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the UL 35Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
72.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the UL 38Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 13
OPP 38
0
72.9%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Cole CavalloSimilar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 13
OPP 38
0
73.0%
Southern Miss Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jakarius Caston) declinedSimilar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 13
OPP 38
0
72.1%
Bryce Lofton punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 13
OPP 38
0
72.1%
Bryce Lofton punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2572% → 76%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
72.0%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 21 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
72.6%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 6 yds to the USM 48Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
72.7%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Trayv'on CulbertSimilar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+2
72.5%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 2 yds to the USM 46Similar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+3
72.2%
Jacob Kibodi run for 3 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
72.7%
Jacob Kibodi run for 4 yds to the USM 39Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
72.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Pearse Migl for 5 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+4
72.6%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 4 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+24
72.8%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 24 yds to the USM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
75.8%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 6 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:5525% → 32%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
74.6%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 9 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
74.0%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+14
74.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 14 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
74.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 14 yds to the UL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
73.7%
Billy Wiles sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the UL 46Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+23
74.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 23 yds to the UL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
72.6%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 3 yds to the UL 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+2
72.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the UL 18Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+18
68.0%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 18 yds for a TD Louisiana Penalty, Personal Foul (Mason Narcisse) to the UL 0 (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:0570% → 70%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.3%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Tavion SmithSimilar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
70.2%
PENALTY LA False Start (Migl,Pearse) 5 yards from LA25 to LA20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+13
70.2%
Zylan Perry run for 13 yds to the UL 33Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
70.4%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Harvey BroussardSimilar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
69.5%
Thomas Leo punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 4:1931% → 42%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
69.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the USM 20Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+21
69.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Davis Dalton for 21 yds to the USM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
68.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 7 yds to the USM 48Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+1
67.8%
Ethan Crawford run for 1 yd to the USM 49Similar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+12
67.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 12 yds to the UL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
67.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the UL 34Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
67.0%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 4 yds Cole Cavallo fumbled, recovered by USM James Middleton No Huddle-Shotgun Wiles,Billy pass complete short right to Cavallo,Cole for 4 yards to the LA30 fumbled by Cavallo,Cole at LA31 forced by Skipper,Tyree recovered by USM Middleton,James at LA30, End Of Play.Similar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
67.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the UL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
57.7%
Kenyon Clay run for 28 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 6 yds · 3:3330% → 29%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
69.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
69.6%
Ethan Crawford pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+12
70.5%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Latreal Jones for 12 yds to the USM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
68.6%
PENALTY USM False Start (Scott,Gerquan) 5 yards from USM41 to USM36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+4
69.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the USM 32Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 19
OWN 32
+6
70.1%
Billy Wiles run for 6 yds to the USM 38Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+6
70.1%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 6 yds to the USM 32Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 19
OWN 32
0
71.4%
Bryce Lofton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8DOWNS
20 plays · 73 yds · 4:5571% → 72%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
70.8%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 5 yds to the UL 31Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
71.1%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Tavion SmithSimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+20
70.3%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Neal Johnson for 20 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
72.8%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Trayv'on CulbertSimilar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
72.5%
Jacob Kibodi run for 9 yds to the USM 40Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
72.5%
Jacob Kibodi run for no gain to the USM 40Similar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+6
70.9%
Jacob Kibodi run for 6 yds to the USM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
73.2%
Jacob Kibodi run for 2 yds to the USM 36Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+2
72.2%
Chandler Fields run for 2 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+15
71.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Terrance Carter for 15 yds to the USM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
73.1%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 14 yds to the USM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
73.2%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 3 yds to the USM 2Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
73.2%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Terrance Carter for 1 yd to the USM 1Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.4%
PENALTY USM Offside (Roland,Demeco). NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.4%
Dre'lyn Washington run for no gain to the USM 1Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.3%
Jacob Kibodi run for no gain to the USM 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:1931% → 30%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
69.5%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-2
69.7%
Billy Wiles sacked by Antoine Baylis for a loss of 2 yards Billy Wiles fumbled, recovered by UL K.C. Ossai , return for 0 yards K.C. Ossai fumbled, recovered by USM Latreal Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:4331% → 30%
Q3 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+17
69.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 17 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
68.1%
Ethan Crawford pass incomplete to Wildrekus JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
68.4%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the USM 38Similar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.0%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
68.6%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Cole CavalloSimilar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
70.1%
Bryce Lofton punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2870% → 68%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
70.3%
Jacob Kibodi run for no gain to the UL 14Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
70.1%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+4
69.2%
Jacob Kibodi run for 4 yds to the UL 18Similar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
68.0%
Thomas Leo punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the UL 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12MISSED FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:0335% → 33%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
65.4%
Ethan Crawford pass incomplete to Latreal JonesSimilar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+11
65.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds to the UL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
64.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the UL 31Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
64.3%
Jakarius Caston pass incomplete to Latreal JonesSimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+4
65.8%
Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the UL 27Similar
Q3 9:21
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+44
66.8%
Andrew Stein 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5570% → 67%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
70.1%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 1 yd to the UL 28Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 9
OWN 28
-3
69.9%
Chandler Fields sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the UL 25Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 12
OWN 25
-5
68.2%
PENALTY LA False Start 5 yards from LA25 to LA20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 17
OWN 20
0
68.2%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Peter LeBlancSimilar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 17
OWN 20
0
67.4%
Thomas Leo punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:4534% → 33%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
66.0%
Ethan Crawford pass incomplete to Tiaquelin MimsSimilar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+20
66.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 20 yds to the UL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
64.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the UL 38Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+4
64.4%
Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the UL 34Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+7
64.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for 7 yds to the UL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
63.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the UL 30Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+3
63.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the UL 27Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
64.8%
Ethan Crawford pass incomplete to Chandler PittmanSimilar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
66.7%
Connor Gibbs 44 yd FG MISSED Southern Miss Penalty, Defensive Holding (Dylan Lawrence) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5669% → 67%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
69.1%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Terrance Carter for 10 yds to the UL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
69.9%
Zylan Perry run for 9 yds to the UL 46Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-5
71.9%
PENALTY LA False Start (Thomas,Nathan) 5 yards from LA46 to LA41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+8
71.3%
run for 8 yds to the UL 33 fumbled, recovered by UL Chandler Fields No Huddle-Shotgun Louisiana rush middle for 8 yards loss to the LA33 fumbled by Louisiana at LA41 recovered by LA Fields,Chandler at LA33, End Of Play.Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+5
66.8%
run for 5 yds to the UL 28 fumbled, recovered by USM Quentin Bivens No Huddle-Shotgun Louisiana rush middle for 5 yards loss to the LA28 fumbled by Louisiana at LA33 recovered by USM Bivens,Quentin at LA28, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:4139% → 40%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
61.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the UL 21Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+1
61.0%
Ethan Crawford run for 1 yd to the UL 20Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+3
62.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the UL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
60.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 17 yds for a TD (Connor Gibbs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17DOWNS
14 plays · 73 yds · 5:0269% → 71%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
68.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 13 yds to the UL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
69.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Trayv'on Culbert for 12 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
73.1%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 14 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
74.9%
Jacob Kibodi run for 2 yds to the USM 37Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+11
72.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 11 yds to the USM 26Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+6
73.2%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Trayv'on Culbert for 6 yds to the USM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
74.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 4 yds to the USM 16Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+9
74.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 9 yds to the USM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
74.9%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 5 yds to the USM 2Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
74.9%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 1 yd to the USM 1Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
73.2%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Neal JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
71.2%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Terrance CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4733% → 30%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
67.2%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
67.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the USM 5Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
68.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the USM 5Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
70.2%
Bryce Lofton punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:4971% → 67%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
71.1%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 11 yds to the UL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
67.1%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 51 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1244% → 47%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
56.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the USM 32Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-10
53.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Crawford,Ethan pass complete short left to Caston,Jakarius for 0 yards to the USM32 (McGriff,Nijel) PENALTY USM Holding (Cavallo,Cole) 10 yards from USM32 to USM22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+12
57.1%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 12 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
53.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds to the USM 7 Frank Gore Jr. fumbled, recovered by UL Glenn Brown No Huddle-Shotgun Gore,Frank rush left for 11 yards loss to the USM23 fumbled by Gore,Frank at USM41 forced by Clark,Jalen recovered by LA Brown III,Glenn at USM23 Brown III,Glenn return 21 yards to the USM02 (Gore,Frank; Cavazos Jr.,Gabe) PENALTY LA Sideline Inteference 5 yards from USM02 to USM07.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21TD
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Trayv'on Culbert for 7 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2910% → 58%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
90.1%
Ethan Crawford run for 7 yds to the USM 32Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
88.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+26
89.0%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 26 yds to the UL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
86.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the UL 30Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+2
85.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the UL 28Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+4
86.5%
Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the UL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
85.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the UL 22Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+4
85.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the UL 18Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+9
86.5%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Latreal Jones for 9 yds to the UL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
42.4%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 9 yds for a TD (Connor Gibbs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:0160% → 61%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
59.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 6 yds to the UL 29Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+10
61.0%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 10 yds to the UL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
62.1%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Harvey BroussardSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
61.5%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Neal Johnson for 7 yds to the UL 46Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
63.3%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Trayv'on CulbertSimilar
Q4 0:18
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
60.9%
Thomas Leo punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:1846% → 46%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
54.5%
Kneel down by Southern Miss. at USM02 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 11
OWN 2
-1
53.6%
Kneel down by Southern Miss. at USM01 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 1
+4
54.4%
Billy Wiles run for 4 yds to the USM 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 25FG
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
OT 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+34
85.2%
Kenneth Almendares 34 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-85.2
TD · Q4 1:26
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 9 yds for a TD (Connor Gibbs KICK)
-44.1
TD · Q4 5:55
Chandler Fields pass complete to Trayv'on Culbert for 7 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
+40.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com