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ULM

UL Monroe 7 at Southern Miss 24

USM
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:48 · Braxton Guilbeau punt for 45 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Home team on offense+25.3Pregame prior+1.9Score differential+9.6Garbage-time factor+7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:39: Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 80 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +2.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:25: Billy Wiles pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 14 yds to the ULM 11 for a 1ST down — USM win probability +3.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:33: Jiya Wright pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 68 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK) — ULM win probability +10.7 pts (now 21%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:14: Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 10 — USM win probability +4.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:36: Frank Gore Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick) — USM win probability +5.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ULM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:39USM 4th & 8 at ULM 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    59.1%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:54ULM 4th & 10 at USM 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:09USM 4th & 14 at ULM 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−4.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:17ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:18USM 4th & 9 at USM 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:30ULM 4th & 13 at ULM 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−2.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:43USM 4th & 19 at USM 21, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−3.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:07ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:50USM 4th & 2 at ULM 20, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.8%−1.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    75.7%−7.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:33ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−1.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:17ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 46, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:59USM 4th & 15 at USM 38, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:14USM 4th & 4 at midfield, up 10
    Close callPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:49ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 42, down 10
    Close callPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:40USM 4th & 9 at USM 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−1.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:48ULM 4th & 18 at ULM 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ULM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:52USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:39USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:33ULM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:36USM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:1367% → 67%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
67.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 25Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+30
67.3%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 30 yds to the ULM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
67.4%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
67.4%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 2 yds to the ULM 43Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
67.3%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the ULM 43Similar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
67.1%
Bryce Lofton punt for 34 yds, downed at the ULM 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2INT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:2133% → 33%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
67.2%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+3
67.2%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Hunter Smith for 3 yds to the ULM 12Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+29
67.2%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 29 yds to the ULM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
66.8%
(11:48) MURPHY, Blake pass short to the right complete for 14 yards to HOWELL, Tyrone caught at the ULM44 and advanced to the USM45, out of bounds. PENALTY Before the snap, ULM Illegal Shift on WILEY, Dariyan enforced 5 yards from the ULM41 to the ULM36. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+1
67.0%
Blake Murphy pass complete to NyNy Davis for 1 yd to the ULM 37Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 14
OWN 37
0
66.9%
Blake Murphy pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3TD
1 play · 38 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
68.7%
Chandler Pittman pass complete to Latreal Jones for 38 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4MISSED FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 1:5832% → 32%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
68.2%
Blake Murphy run for 12 yds to the ULM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
68.1%
Blake Murphy pass complete to NyNy Davis for 6 yds to the ULM 43Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+2
68.0%
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds to the ULM 45Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+40
68.1%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 40 yds to the USM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
67.8%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
67.8%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
68.1%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
68.5%
Derek McCormick 32 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
71.3%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 80 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.6%
Blake Murphy pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 5:1572% → 76%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
71.9%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
71.9%
Ethan Crawford run for 8 yds to the USM 46Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+11
72.2%
Jakarius Caston run for 11 yds to the ULM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
72.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the ULM 36Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
73.2%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+5
73.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the ULM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
73.7%
(06:00) WILES, Billy pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MIMS, Tiaquelin thrown to the ULM0. PENALTY ULM Holding on MASSEY, Norman enforced 10 yards from the ULM31 to the ULM21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
73.8%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ULM 19Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+9
74.2%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 9 yds to the ULM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
74.6%
Ethan Crawford run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 11Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-3
74.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 14Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
74.8%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
76.0%
Andrew Stein 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5224% → 23%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds to the ULM 27Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
75.9%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 4 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-6
76.2%
Blake Murphy sacked by Kristin Booth and TQ Newsome for a loss of 6 yards to the ULM 25Similar
Q1 1:17
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
77.1%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5178% → 79%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
78.2%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the USM 30Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
78.5%
Billy Wiles sacked by Kenard Snyder and Dylan Howell for a loss of 5 yards to the USM 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+6
78.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
79.2%
Bryce Lofton punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:3822% → 21%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
78.2%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-3
78.4%
Blake Murphy sacked by Eric Thomas Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 44Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 13
OWN 44
0
79.3%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
79.5%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 54 yds, downed at the USM 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:3780% → 82%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
80.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the USM 8Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+10
80.3%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 10 yds to the USM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
81.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the USM 20Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+7
81.8%
Billy Wiles run for 7 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+3
82.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
82.7%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
82.7%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-9
82.4%
Billy Wiles sacked by Adin Huntington for a loss of 9 yards to the USM 21Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 19
OWN 21
0
82.2%
Bryce Lofton punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2619% → 18%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
81.0%
Blake Murphy pass complete to NyNy Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 36Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
81.7%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+4
82.0%
Blake Murphy run for 4 yds to the ULM 40Similar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
82.0%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 51 yds, downed at the USM 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13MISSED FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 5:0683% → 85%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
82.7%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+17
82.7%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 17 yds to the USM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
83.7%
Billy Wiles sacked by Tristan Driggers for a loss of 6 yards to the USM 20Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 16
OWN 20
+3
84.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 3 yds to the USM 23Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 13
OWN 23
0
84.0%
(06:11) WILES, Billy pass deep to the right incomplete intended for JONES, Latreal thrown to the ULM40. PENALTY ULM Offsides on HUNTINGTON, Adin declined ULM Pass Interference on TILLERY, Lucius enforced 15 yards to the USM38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
85.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 16 yds to the ULM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
85.5%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+18
85.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 18 yds to the ULM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
85.7%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
85.9%
Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the ULM 24Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-5
85.9%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ULM 29Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 11
OPP 29
-5
86.0%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ULM 34Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 16
OPP 34
+14
86.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 14 yds to the ULM 20Similar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+37
84.9%
Andrew Stein 37 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
83.0%
Blake Murphy pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15INT
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:3586% → 87%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
86.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 14 yds to the ULM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
86.7%
Billy Wiles pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1116% → 14%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
84.0%
Isaiah Woullard run for 1 yd to the ULM 21Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+6
84.7%
Isaiah Woullard run for 6 yds to the ULM 27Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
84.2%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
85.7%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
86.4%
Kenyon Clay run for 10 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4314% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.7%
Hunter Smith run for 7 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
85.6%
Hunter Smith run for 10 yds to the ULM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
85.6%
Hunter Smith run for 4 yds to the ULM 46Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
85.3%
Hunter Smith run for no gain to the ULM 46Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
86.2%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:17
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
86.7%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:1187% → 89%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
87.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the USM 28Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
87.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 15 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
88.6%
Ethan Crawford run for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 39Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 14
OWN 39
-1
88.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 38Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 15
OWN 38
0
90.0%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 15
OWN 38
0
89.4%
Bryce Lofton punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20TD
1 play · 68 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
78.7%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 68 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0881% → 80%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
81.2%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 4
50
0
81.6%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 4
50
0
80.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 4
50
0
80.0%
Bryce Lofton punt for 37 yds, downed at the ULM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:1420% → 19%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
80.1%
Hunter Smith run for 3 yds to the ULM 16Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
80.3%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+4
81.3%
Hunter Smith run for 4 yds to the ULM 20Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 3
OWN 20
+15
81.7%
Southern Miss Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Zay Franks) to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
79.8%
Hunter Smith run for 5 yds to the ULM 40Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
79.1%
Hunter Smith run for 2 yds to the ULM 42Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
79.5%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
81.0%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 39 yds, downed at the USM 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:5682% → 81%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
81.8%
Kenyon Clay run for 3 yds to the USM 22Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+12
81.8%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 12 yds to the USM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
82.3%
Kenyon Clay run for 3 yds to the USM 37Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-2
82.9%
Ethan Crawford run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 35Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
82.2%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:40
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
81.3%
Bryce Lofton punt for 37 yds, downed at the ULM 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24FUMBLE
11 plays · 61 yds · 4:0818% → 19%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
81.6%
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds to the ULM 30Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+5
81.7%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 5 yds to the ULM 35Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+8
81.9%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Bud Tolbert for 8 yds to the ULM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
81.1%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
81.4%
Bennett Galloway run for 5 yds to the ULM 48Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+10
80.8%
Bennett Galloway run for 10 yds to the USM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
80.1%
Jiya Wright run for 8 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+9
78.5%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for 9 yds to the USM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
79.0%
UL Monroe Penalty, False Start (Stacey Wilkins) to the USM 30Similar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+16
80.3%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 16 yds to the USM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
80.7%
Jiya Wright run for 3 yds to the USM 11 Jiya Wright fumbled, recovered by USM Quentin Bivens (00:22) [NHSG] QB Keeper WRIGHT, Jiya rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards, WRIGHT, Jiya fumbled at USM13 forced by CARR, Josh, recovered by USM BIVENS, Quentin at the USM11, returned 0 yards to the USM11, End of Play, clock 00:14.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25TD
18 plays · 89 yds · 7:3885% → 97%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
85.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+4
85.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the USM 14Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+17
83.8%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 17 yds to the USM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
85.9%
(13:49) PITTMAN, Chandler rush to the left for a loss of 3 yards to the USM31 (SNYDER, Kenard). PENALTY USM Holding on SCOTT, Gerquan ULM Face mask on SNYDER, Kenard , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
85.9%
Ethan Crawford run for 16 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
87.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the ULM 48Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-10
87.8%
(12:30) QB Keeper CRAWFORD, Ethan rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the ULM43 (BATTON, Michael). PENALTY USM Holding on BOLDING, John enforced 10 yards from the ULM48 to the USM42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+11
87.1%
Ethan Crawford run for 11 yds to the ULM 47Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+15
87.2%
UL Monroe Penalty, Personal Foul (Car'lin Vigers) to the ULM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
88.2%
Ethan Crawford run for no gain to the ULM 32Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+14
88.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 14 yds to the ULM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
88.4%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
88.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the ULM 17Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+13
88.3%
Billy Wiles run for 13 yds to the ULM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
90.5%
Ethan Crawford run for 2 yds to the ULM 2Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
91.5%
run for 1 yd to the ULM 1Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.3%
Frank Gore Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:434% → 3%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.3%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-8
96.4%
Jiya Wright sacked by Josh Ratcliff for a loss of 8 yards to the ULM 12Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 18
OWN 12
0
96.6%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 18
OWN 12
0
96.6%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27END OF GAME
10 plays · 33 yds · 5:5298% → 99%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
97.6%
Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the ULM 36Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+5
97.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+16
98.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 16 yds to the ULM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
98.2%
Kenyon Clay run for 4 yds to the ULM 11Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+3
98.3%
Kenyon Clay run for 3 yds to the ULM 8Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+5
98.4%
Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds to the ULM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.5%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ULM 1Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
98.8%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 3Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.4%
(00:45) [NHSG] Kneel down by USM at ULM7 (team loss of 4).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:33
Jiya Wright pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 68 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q4 7:36
Frank Gore Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick)
+5.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 0:14
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 10
+4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com