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USA

South Alabama 10 at Troy 28

TROY
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2023 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Gio Lopez pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 11 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:30: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 47 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +7.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:19: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 26 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +8.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:16: Gio Lopez pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 1 yd to the USA 34 — USA win probability +6.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:08: Timeout Troy, clock 06:08 — TROY win probability +5.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:12: Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +12.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 14:11TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:10USA 4th & 3 at USA 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:26TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:08USA 4th & 12 at USA 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:45TROY 4th & 25 at USA 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    61.4%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:34USA 4th & 7 at TROY 32, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.7%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:46USA 4th & 5 at USA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:28TROY 4th & 13 at TROY 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−2.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:34USA 4th & 1 at TROY 46, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    36.3%−2.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:43TROY 4th & 1 at USA 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    63.4%−1.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−2.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:22USA 4th & 11 at USA 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−3.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:14TROY 4th & 9 at USA 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−5.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:20USA 4th & 14 at TROY 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    24.5%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:16TROY 4th & 1 at USA 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.5%−2.9
    54% to make
    Punt
    77.0%−4.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00USA 4th & 2 at TROY 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    19.8%−4.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−3.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:47USA 4th & 11 at TROY 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−3.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−12.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:12TROY 4th & 1 at USA 1, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    77.5%−6.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    62.6%−21.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:48TROY 4th & 7 at USA 29, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    96.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:13USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:30TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:19TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:12TROY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:48TROY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4963% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
62.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
62.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:11
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
62.5%
Robert Cole punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0137% → 37%
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
62.6%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the USA 18Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
62.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 7 yds to the USA 25Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
62.6%
Gio Lopez run for no gain to the USA 25Similar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
62.7%
punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
62.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 4 yds fumbled, forced by Quentin Wilfawn, recovered by USA Jamall Hickbottom [NHSG] WATSON, Gunnar pass short up the middle complete for 4 yards to BARBER, Jabre, BARBER, Jabre fumbled at TRO44 forced by WILFAWN, Quentin, recovered by USA HICKBOTTOM, Jamall at the TRO44, returned 0 yards to the TRO44, End of Play, clock 11:58 (After review, play stands as called on the field).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:4538% → 40%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
62.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 11 yds to the TROY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
62.1%
LOPEZ, Gio pass short to the right incomplete dropped by LACY, Caullin thrown to the TRO28. PENALTY TRO Roughing the Passer on PETTUS, Dell enforced 15 yards from the TRO33 to the TRO18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
62.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 9 yds to the TROY 9Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+1
62.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the TROY 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
62.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the TROY 6Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
60.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 6 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4761% → 60%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TROY 26Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
60.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
60.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 8 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
59.7%
Robert Cole punt for 34 yds, downed at the USA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1841% → 41%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
59.4%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 33Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-3
59.5%
Gio Lopez sacked by O'shai Fletcher for a loss of 3 yards to the USA 30Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
59.9%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
59.5%
Jack Martin punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 4:2360% → 57%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
59.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
59.5%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+18
59.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 18 yds to the USA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
60.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 13 yds to the USA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-8
60.5%
Devonte Ross run for 2 yds to the USA 23 Troy Penalty, Offensive Holding (Grant Betts) to the USA 33Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 18
OPP 33
0
60.1%
Troy Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Gunnar Watson) to the USA 40Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 25
OPP 40
0
59.5%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the USA 40Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 25
OPP 40
0
57.0%
Robert Cole punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8MISSED FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 4:1143% → 46%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
57.0%
Gio Lopez run for 10 yds to the USA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
56.9%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+30
57.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 30 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
55.7%
La'Damian Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 49Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+14
56.0%
Gio Lopez run for 14 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
53.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-3
53.7%
Gio Lopez run for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+4
54.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the TROY 32Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
54.1%
Diego Guajardo 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 2:0455% → 64%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
55.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 8 yds to the TROY 40Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+4
56.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
56.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the USA 47Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+47
63.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 47 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4439% → 39%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 2 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
60.5%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the USA 27Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+3
61.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 3 yds to the USA 30Similar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
61.4%
Jack Martin punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:1862% → 60%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.9%
Gunnar Watson run for 4 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
62.1%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the TROY 30Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-8
61.4%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Quentin Wilfawn for a loss of 8 yards to the TROY 22Similar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
59.8%
Robert Cole punt for 60 yds, downed at the USA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:5441% → 43%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
58.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 17 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
58.3%
LOPEZ, Gio pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for PRITCHETT, Jamaal thrown to the TRO32. PENALTY TRO Holding on STEWARD, Reddy enforced 10 yards from the USA35 to the USA45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
57.0%
Gio Lopez run for 4 yds to the USA 49Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
56.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 5 yds to the TROY 46Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
56.5%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
57.5%
Jack Martin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13TD
14 plays · 96 yds · 5:1561% → 73%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
61.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 8Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+12
61.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 12 yds to the TROY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+17
61.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 17 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
62.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 18 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
64.1%
Asa Martin run for 3 yds to the USA 42Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
64.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+6
62.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 6 yds to the USA 36Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+5
61.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the USA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
64.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the USA 30Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+4
64.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 4 yds to the USA 26Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+26
73.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 26 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 8 yds to the USA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3828% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
71.6%
Marco Lee Jr. run for no gain to the USA 3Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 3
-1
71.8%
La'Damian Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 2Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 2
0
72.7%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 11
OWN 2
0
73.8%
Jack Martin punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16MISSED FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:0875% → 74%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
74.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 19 yds to the USA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
75.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the USA 15Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 1
OPP 15
-10
75.1%
VIDAL, Kimani rush up the middle for a gain of 13 yards to the USA2 (VOISIN, Jaden;JORDAN, Jalen). PENALTY TRO Holding on GRAHAM, Derrick enforced 10 yards from the USA15 to the USA25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+3
75.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 3 yds to the USA 22Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 8
OPP 22
-6
74.2%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Trey Kiser for a loss of 6 yards to the USA 28Similar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 14
OPP 28
+5
71.1%
South Alabama Penalty, Disconcerting Signals enforced (TEAM) to the USA 23Similar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+40
73.8%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:5428% → 26%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
72.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 7 yds to the USA 30Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+4
71.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 4 yds to the USA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
71.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 9 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+22
70.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 22 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
68.0%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-4
68.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 39Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 14
OPP 39
0
72.3%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:20
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
74.3%
Jack Martin punt for 33 yds, downed at the TROY 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 61 yds · 5:0477% → 80%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
76.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the TROY 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
77.2%
Gunnar Watson run for 11 yds to the TROY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
77.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 19 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
79.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 6
50
+10
79.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
79.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-4
79.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for a loss of 4 yards to the USA 42Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+11
77.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 11 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q3 2:16
4TH & 1
OPP 31
-2
80.2%
Damien Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 5:2926% → 29%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
74.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 1 yd to the USA 34Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+15
74.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 15 yds to the USA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
72.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 6 yds to the TROY 45Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
75.0%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+2
75.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 2 yds to the TROY 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+5
77.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 5 yds to the TROY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+35
75.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 35 yds to the TROY 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
73.4%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the TROY 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
73.4%
South Alabama Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the TROY 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
73.4%
Gio Lopez run for 7 yds to the TROY 1Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
75.2%
La'Damian Webb run for a loss of 10 yards to the TROY 11Similar
Q4 11:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
71.4%
Diego Guajardo 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 8:3574% → 96%
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
73.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the TROY 31Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
75.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
74.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the TROY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
75.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+14
74.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 14 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
76.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 11 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
77.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the USA 34Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
77.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+21
75.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 21 yds to the USA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
77.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the USA 8Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+2
84.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the USA 6Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+5
83.3%
South Alabama Penalty, Face mask (5 yards) (Yam Banks) to the USA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.5%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the USA 1Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.5%
Gunnar Watson run for no gain to the USA 1Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
83.3%
Gunnar Watson run for no gain to the USA 1Similar
Q4 3:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:215% → 4%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
95.7%
Gio Lopez pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:0397% → 100%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
97.0%
Damien Taylor run for no gain to the USA 32Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
97.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 5
OPP 27
-2
98.1%
Damien Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 29Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+29
99.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 29 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 26 yds · 1:481% → 1%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.4%
Gio Lopez run for 1 yd to the USA 26Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
99.4%
Gio Lopez run for 9 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 5 yds to the USA 40Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+11
99.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 11 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:12
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+12.7
TD · Q2 0:19
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 26 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q2 11:30
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 47 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com