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TROY

Troy 31 at Texas State 13

TXST
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:48 · TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kole Wilson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Home team on offense−36.5Pregame prior−1.4Score differential−16.4Garbage-time factor−13.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:02: Gunnar Watson run for 3 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +7.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:15: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 29 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +12.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 8:16: Mason Shipley 23 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +4.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q4 13:48: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 14 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +19.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:22: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Landon Parker for 4 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +8.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 6TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:08TROY 4th & 9 at TXST 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    61.3%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:56TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:14TROY 4th & 2 at TXST 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    57.2%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:47TROY 4th & 24 at TXST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−2.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:49TXST 4th & 4 at TROY 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−6.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:57TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:19TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−2.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:16TXST 4th & 3 at TROY 6, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.3%−1.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−11.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:07TROY 4th & 19 at TROY 44, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−5.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:16TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 34, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.7%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:00TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 49, up 15
    Close callPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:48TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 26, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:26TROY 4th & 7 at TXST 10, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:25TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:02TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:15TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:48TROY Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:22TROY Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 2:2733% → 35%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
32.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 8 yds to the TXST 24Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+5
32.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the TXST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
32.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 10 yds to the TXST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
32.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+9
32.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
50
+8
32.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 8 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+14
32.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 14 yds to the TROY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
35.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 28 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:1765% → 64%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
34.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 17 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
34.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 20 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
34.5%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TXST 38Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
34.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TXST 37Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
34.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Ethan ConnerSimilar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 9
OPP 37
+6
36.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 6 yds to the TXST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1237% → 39%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
36.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+11
36.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 11 yds to the TXST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
37.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the TXST 48Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
37.3%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Joey HobertSimilar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+1
37.1%
TJ Finley run for 1 yd to the TXST 47Similar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 7
OWN 47
+35
38.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 35 yds , Jabre Barber returns for 35 yds to the TXST 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 3:4262% → 60%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
37.6%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TXST 45Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+4
37.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 4 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+12
37.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 12 yds to the TXST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
37.3%
Jabre Barber run for 8 yds to the TXST 21Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 2
OPP 21
0
37.3%
Damien Taylor run for no gain to the TXST 21Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 2
OPP 21
0
37.7%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TXST 21Similar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 2
OPP 21
0
40.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Devonte RossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5INT
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4942% → 45%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+25
41.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 25 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
42.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,TJ pass incomplete short left to Wilson,Kole PENALTY TROY Pass Interference (Steward,Reddy) 9 yards from TXST46 to TROY45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+23
42.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 23 yds to the TROY 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
43.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 4 yds to the TROY 18Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+11
43.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 11 yds to the TROY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
43.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TROY 4Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
43.1%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Sean Shaw Jr.Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
45.1%
TJ Finley pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:2356% → 63%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
43.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 26 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
42.6%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TROY 46Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
43.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon StoudemireSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+19
44.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 19 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-15
42.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for no gain to the TXST 35 Troy Penalty, Personal Foul (Jabre Barber) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 25
50
+47
44.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 47 yds to the TXST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
36.9%
Gunnar Watson run for 3 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7INT
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:2440% → 44%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.4%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Joey HobertSimilar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
40.3%
Donerio Davenport run for 2 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
39.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 15 yds to the TXST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
41.5%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
41.0%
Donerio Davenport run for 3 yds to the TXST 45Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+13
41.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Donerio Davenport for 13 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
43.6%
TJ Finley pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:5160% → 59%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
40.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TROY 17Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+12
40.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 12 yds to the TROY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
39.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+12
38.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
37.6%
Gunnar Watson run for 2 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
37.6%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TXST 33Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 8
OPP 33
-11
37.6%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Ben Bell for a loss of 11 yards to the TXST 44Similar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 19
OPP 44
-5
40.5%
PENALTY TROY Delay Of Game (Cole,Robert) 5 yards from TXST44 to TXST49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 24
OPP 49
0
40.8%
Robert Cole punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9FG
14 plays · 76 yds · 4:5843% → 51%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
42.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 10 yds to the TXST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
43.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+12
43.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 12 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
44.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,TJ pass incomplete deep right to Hawkins,Ashtyn PENALTY TROY Pass Interference (Callis,Don) 15 yards from TXST45 to TROY40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
45.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 20 yds to the TROY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
46.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 6 yds to the TROY 14Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+1
46.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the TROY 13Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+4
45.1%
Donerio Davenport run for 4 yds to the TROY 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
46.1%
Donerio Davenport run for no gain to the TROY 9Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
46.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Malik Hornsby for 2 yds to the TROY 7Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
48.8%
TJ Finley run for 3 yds to the TROY 4Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
50.6%
Mason Shipley 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:4747% → 45%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
53.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 23Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+19
53.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 19 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
51.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Chris LewisSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
51.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Ethan ConnerSimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
52.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Deshon StoudemireSimilar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
54.9%
Robert Cole punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3850% → 48%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
49.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for no gain to the TXST 24Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
49.4%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Joey HobertSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
48.6%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Sean Shaw Jr.Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
47.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:1949% → 49%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 9
OWN 49
0
50.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Devonte RossSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
51.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Chris LewisSimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+15
52.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 15 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
49.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
50.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Clayton OllendieckSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
51.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Chris LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:4551% → 67%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
49.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 21 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
45.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 9 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+29
33.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 29 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:5938% → 46%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
38.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 7 yds to the TXST 32Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
40.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
38.5%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+26
38.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Beau Corrales for 26 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
41.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TROY 36Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+1
41.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TROY 35Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+22
41.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 22 yds to the TROY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
43.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the TROY 9Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
43.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the TROY 9Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+3
41.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds to the TROY 6Similar
Q3 8:16
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+23
45.7%
Mason Shipley 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:0958% → 55%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
42.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TROY 24Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+29
42.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Landon Parker for 29 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
38.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 13
50
+4
40.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 4 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 9
OPP 46
-10
39.9%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Ben Bell for a loss of 10 yards to the TROY 44Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 19
OWN 44
0
45.5%
Robert Cole punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16FUMBLE
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:3545% → 50%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
44.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 4 yds to the TXST 26Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
45.3%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-JonesSimilar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+6
43.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 6 yds to the TXST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
45.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 12 yds to the TXST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
48.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 11 yds to the TROY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
50.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 12 yds to the TROY 33 Ismail Mahdi fumbled, recovered by TROY Javon Solomon No Huddle-Shotgun Mahdi,Ismail rush left for 12 yards gain to the TROY33 fumbled by Mahdi,Ismail at TROY40 recovered by TROY Solomon,Javon at TROY33, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:4458% → 83%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
42.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 14 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-12
39.8%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Tavian Coleman for a loss of 12 yards to the TROY 35Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 22
OWN 35
+9
43.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 9 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+17
43.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 17 yds to the TXST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
39.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 15 yds to the TXST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
37.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jabre BarberSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
37.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 1 yd to the TXST 23Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
36.6%
Troy Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 11
OPP 12
-5
35.6%
PENALTY TROY False Start (Graham,Derrick) 5 yards from TXST12 to TXST17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 16
OPP 17
+3
36.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 3 yds to the TXST 14Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+14
17.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 14 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3221% → 19%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.4%
Joey Hobert run for 1 yd to the TXST 24Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
21.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 9 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
22.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 34Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
19.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 1:5486% → 95%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+27
13.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Brody Dalton for 27 yds to the TXST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
13.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kimani VidalSimilar
Q4 12:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
13.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TXST 4Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
5.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Landon Parker for 4 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:428% → 7%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
7.9%
TJ Finley run for 3 yds to the TXST 22Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+14
7.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 14 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
8.3%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+24
8.1%
TJ Finley run for 24 yds to the TROY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
9.0%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ismail MahdiSimilar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
8.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 5 yds to the TROY 35Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+7
7.0%
TJ Finley run for 7 yds to the TROY 42 TJ Finley fumbled, recovered by TROY Eric Shaw No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,TJ rush middle for 7 yards loss to the TROY42 fumbled by Finley,TJ at TROY40 forced by Stringer,Jordan recovered by TROY Shaw,Eric at TROY42, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4095% → 96%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
4.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 13
OWN 39
0
5.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Chris LewisSimilar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+10
5.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
4.3%
Robert Cole punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TXST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:125% → 3%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
5.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 7 yds to the TXST 35Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
5.3%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ismail MahdiSimilar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-9
5.3%
TJ Finley sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 9 yards to the TXST 26Similar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
3.4%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23FG
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:2297% → 99%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
3.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+8
3.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 8 yds to the TXST 21Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+8
3.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Brody Dalton for 8 yds to the TXST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
3.2%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TXST 10Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+2
3.2%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TXST 12Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+2
3.3%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TXST 10Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
1.1%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:261% → 1%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
0.7%
Malik Hornsby run for 23 yds to the TXST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
0.7%
Malik Hornsby pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+14
0.7%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 14 yds to the TROY 43Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+12
0.6%
Malik Hornsby run for 12 yds to the TXST 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:48
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 14 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-19.4
TD · Q3 13:15
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 29 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-12.8
TD · Q4 10:22
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Landon Parker for 4 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com