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UL

Louisiana 33 at South Alabama 20

USA
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:15 · Thomas Leo punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.5+26.30−26.3−52.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Home team on offense−41.6Pregame prior+6.0Score differential−22.7Garbage-time factor−10.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:15: Zeon Chriss pass complete to Neal Johnson for 3 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +12.4 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 7:32: Kenneth Almendares 42 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +13.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:09: La'Damian Webb run for 25 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +20.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q3 3:17: Jacob Kibodi run for 56 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares PAT MISSED) — UL win probability +19.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:07: Kendre' Gant 55 Yd Fumble Return (Kenneth Almendares Kick) — UL win probability +17.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:36UL 4th & 6 at USA 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    22.7%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:55USA 4th & 5 at USA 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:24UL 4th & 8 at USA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    23.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:42USA 4th & 1 at UL 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.5%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    75.0%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:13USA 4th & 7 at USA 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:10UL 4th & 1 at USA 3, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%
    63% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.4%−4.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−12.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:02USA 4th & 10 at UL 45, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.8%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    36.9%−1.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    38.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:32UL 4th & 6 at USA 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−8.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:19USA 4th & 15 at USA 37, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−3.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:15UL 4th & 13 at UL 42, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:15USA 4th & 10 at USA 33, down 19
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:23UL 4th & 25 at UL 12, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−1.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:14UL 4th & 7 at UL 23, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:14USA 4th & 1 at UL 49, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 12:58UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:15UL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:53USA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:09USA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:17UL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:07UL Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:16USA Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:1721% → 21%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
79.5%
Jacob Kibodi run for 8 yds to the UL 33Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+20
79.5%
Zeon Chriss run for 20 yds to the USA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
79.5%
Jacob Kibodi run for 3 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+1
79.5%
Zeon Chriss run for 1 yd to the USA 43Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
79.5%
Zeon Chriss pass incomplete to Terrance CarterSimilar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
78.9%
Thomas Leo punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4179% → 79%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
78.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the USA 11Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 5
OWN 11
0
78.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamaal PritchettSimilar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 5
OWN 11
0
78.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 5
OWN 11
0
78.6%
Jack Martin punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the USA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3122% → 22%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
78.5%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 3 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
78.5%
Zeon Chriss pass incomplete to Terrance CarterSimilar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+1
78.5%
Zeon Chriss run for 1 yd to the USA 45Similar
Q1 10:24
4TH & 8
OPP 45
+5
78.3%
Thomas Leo punt for 30 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 5 yds to the USA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4DOWNS
15 plays · 73 yds · 5:4278% → 77%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
78.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 10 yds to the USA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
78.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 7 yds to the USA 37Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+6
78.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 6 yds to the USA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
78.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for 10 yds to the UL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
78.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 8 yds to the UL 39Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+10
78.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bullock,Kentrel rush left for 9 yards gain to the LA 30 (Skipper,Tyree; Martin,Keyon) PENALTY USA Holding (Davis,Jordan) 10 yards from LA 39 to LA 49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+20
78.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 20 yds to the UL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
78.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Brandon CrumSimilar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
78.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the UL 28Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+13
78.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 13 yds to the UL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
78.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the UL 11Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
78.8%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the UL 11Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+5
78.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 5 yds to the UL 6Similar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+1
77.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the UL 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5TD
16 plays · 93 yds · 6:4424% → 34%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
76.4%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 4 yds to the UL 11Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+8
76.4%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 8 yds to the UL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
76.2%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 6 yds to the UL 25Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 4
OWN 25
-15
76.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Chriss,Zeon pass incomplete deep right to Broussard,Harvey PENALTY USA Pass Interference (Fletcher,Ricky) 15 yards from LA 25 to LA 40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
75.7%
Zeon Chriss run for 5 yds to the UL 45Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-5
75.5%
PENALTY LA False Start (Williams,Robert) 5 yards from LA 45 to LA 40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
75.9%
Jacob Kibodi run for 1 yd to the UL 39Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+8
76.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jacob Kibodi for 8 yds to the UL 47Similar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 3
OWN 47
-5
76.0%
PENALTY USA Offside (Thomas,Wy'Kevious) 5 yards from LA 47 to USA48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
75.4%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 5 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
72.8%
Zeon Chriss run for no gain to the USA 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+8
73.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Charles Robertson for 8 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
72.6%
Zeon Chriss run for 4 yds to the USA 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+6
73.5%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Dre'lyn Washington for 6 yds to the USA 33Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+33
66.4%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 33 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0768% → 67%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
67.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+8
67.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 8 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
67.3%
Carter Bradley sacked by Cameron Whitfield for a loss of 5 yards to the USA 41 Carter Bradley fumbled, recovered by UL Nijel McGriff , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:3235% → 48%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
65.1%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 1 yd to the USA 40Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-2
65.2%
Zeon Chriss sacked by Quentin Wilfawn for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 42Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+15
65.6%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 15 yds to the USA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
64.8%
Jacob Kibodi run for 2 yds to the USA 25Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+18
64.8%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Terrance Carter for 18 yds to the USA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
64.8%
Jacob Kibodi run for 4 yds to the USA 3Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.4%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Neal Johnson for 3 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:0249% → 44%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
48.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 4 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-3
48.8%
Carter Bradley sacked by Antoine Baylis for a loss of 3 yards to the USA 28Similar
Q2 6:13
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
43.9%
Jack Martin punt for 9 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9FG
12 plays · 34 yds · 4:0355% → 62%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
44.6%
Zeon Chriss pass incomplete to Charles RobertsonSimilar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
44.7%
Jacob Kibodi run for no gain to the USA 37Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+11
44.9%
Jacob Kibodi run for 11 yds to the USA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
44.4%
Jacob Kibodi run for 9 yds to the USA 17Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+5
44.4%
Jacob Kibodi run for 5 yds to the USA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
44.4%
Jacob Kibodi run for 6 yds to the USA 6Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+3
44.4%
Jacob Kibodi run for 3 yds to the USA 3Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 1
OPP 3
0
38.5%
Jacob Kibodi run for no gain to the USA 3Similar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+20
37.7%
Kenneth Almendares 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10FUMBLE
11 plays · 26 yds · 2:0241% → 37%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
41.4%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the USA 25Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+19
41.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 19 yds to the USA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
43.5%
Carter Bradley run for 8 yds to the UL 48Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 2
OPP 48
-2
43.6%
Carter Bradley sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 4
50
+5
42.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 5 yds to the UL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
43.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
43.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jay'juan TownsendSimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
38.1%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamaal PritchettSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 10
OPP 45
-5
36.6%
Carter Bradley sacked by Cameron Whitfield for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard line Carter Bradley fumbled, recovered by UL Nijel McGriff , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
50
-1
26.2%
Z. Chriss takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:0039% → 51%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
38.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 5 yds to the USA 25Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+19
39.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 19 yds to the USA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
41.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 8 yds to the UL 48Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+31
42.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 31 yds to the UL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
43.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the UL 14Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+1
43.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the UL 13Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+7
42.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 7 yds to the UL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
43.1%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q3 11:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
51.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 6 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:2153% → 68%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.2%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 4 yds to the UL 29Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
46.6%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 10 yds to the UL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
45.5%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 22 yds to the USA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
45.4%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 4 yds to the USA 35Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+6
44.8%
Jacob Kibodi run for 6 yds to the USA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
44.8%
Jacob Kibodi run for 1 yd to the USA 28Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+1
45.0%
Jacob Kibodi run for 1 yd to the USA 29Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+4
45.9%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Terrance Carter for 4 yds to the USA 25Similar
Q3 7:32
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
32.1%
Kenneth Almendares 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14TD
4 plays · 89 yds · 1:1937% → 58%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
37.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the USA 13Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+62
36.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 62 yds to the UL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
57.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 25 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5253% → 77%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
46.6%
PENALTY LA False Start (Jackson,George) 5 yards from LA 25 to LA 20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
47.6%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 2 yds to the UL 22Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
48.1%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 3 yds to the UL 25Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
48.7%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Neal Johnson for 14 yds to the UL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
43.8%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Robert Williams for 5 yds to the UL 44Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+56
24.1%
Jacob Kibodi run for 56 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares PAT MISSED)Similar
Q3 3:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
23.2%
Chriss,Zeon pass attempt failed PENALTY LA Pass Interference (Williams,Robert) 15 yards from USA03 to USA18. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16FUMBLE RETURN TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:0430% → 16%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+21
30.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 21 yds to the USA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
31.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 11 yds to the USA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
32.9%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
32.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the UL 49Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+8
32.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 8 yds to the UL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+55
15.5%
Kendre' Gant 55 Yd Fumble Return (Kenneth Almendares Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:4814% → 13%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
14.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 12 yds to the USA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
14.7%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
14.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Lincoln SefcikSimilar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
14.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q3 1:07
4TH & 10
OWN 42
-5
14.0%
PENALTY USA False Start (Strickland,Adrein) 5 yards from USA42 to USA37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:19
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
12.5%
Jack Martin punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:4594% → 96%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
6.5%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 2 yds to the UL 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
6.5%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+14
6.4%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Terrance Carter for 14 yds to the UL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
5.9%
Zeon Chriss run for no gain to the UL 30Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-15
6.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Chriss,Zeon pass incomplete short left to Broussard,Harvey QB hurried by Sheriff,Jamie PENALTY USA Pass Interference (Robinson,Marquise) 15 yards from LA 30 to LA 45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
5.5%
Jacob Kibodi run for 2 yds to the UL 47Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
5.5%
Jacob Kibodi run for no gain to the UL 47Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+5
5.7%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jacob Kibodi for 5 yds to the UL 42Similar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
4.3%
Thomas Leo punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19INT
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:456% → 6%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+19
6.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Javon Ivory for 19 yds to the USA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
6.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
6.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
6.1%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamaal PritchettSimilar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 10
OWN 33
+16
6.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 16 yds to the USA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
6.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 6 yds to the UL 45Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
6.2%
Carter Bradley pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 6 yds · 3:0797% → 98%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
3.2%
Jacob Kibodi run for 4 yds to the UL 10Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+6
3.2%
Jacob Kibodi run for 6 yds to the UL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
3.1%
Zeon Chriss run for 11 yds to the UL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
3.1%
Jacob Kibodi run for 2 yds to the UL 25Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 12
OWN 25
0
3.2%
Jacob Kibodi run for no gain to the UL 25Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 12
OWN 25
-5
2.5%
PENALTY LA False Start (Johnson,Neal) 5 yards from LA 25 to LA 20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 17
OWN 20
+3
2.4%
Jacob Kibodi run for 3 yds to the UL 17Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 20
OWN 17
-5
2.0%
PENALTY LA False Start (Kibodi,Caleb) 5 yards from LA 17 to LA 12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 25
OWN 12
0
1.8%
Thomas Leo punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21INT
13 plays · 52 yds · 3:212% → 1%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
1.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 13 yds to the UL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
1.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 10 yds to the UL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
1.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bradley,Carter pass complete short left to Bullock,Kentrel for 0 yards to the LA 38, out of bounds at PENALTY USA Illegal Formation (Davis,Jordan) 5 yards from LA 38 to LA 43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 15
OPP 43
0
1.8%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+14
1.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for 14 yds to the UL 29Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+4
2.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the UL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
2.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 3 yds to the UL 22Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
2.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamaal PritchettSimilar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+10
2.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 10 yds to the UL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
1.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
1.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the UL 9Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
1.3%
Carter Bradley pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4899% → 100%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
0.9%
Zylan Perry run for 1 yd to the UL 21Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
0.9%
Zeon Chriss run for no gain to the UL 21Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+2
0.9%
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the UL 23Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
0.5%
Thomas Leo punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 0:581% → 4%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
0.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 3 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
0.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamaal PritchettSimilar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+6
0.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 6 yds to the UL 49Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+7
0.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 7 yds to the UL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
0.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 3 yds to the UL 39Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+39
2.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 39 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
Q4 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+5
3.8%
PENALTY USA False Start (Thomas-Jones,DJ) 5 yards from LA 03 to LA 08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.8%
Z. Chriss takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:09
La'Damian Webb run for 25 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+20.8
TD · Q3 3:17
Jacob Kibodi run for 56 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares PAT MISSED)
-19.7
TD · Q3 1:07
Kendre' Gant 55 Yd Fumble Return (Kenneth Almendares Kick)
-17.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com