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USM

Southern Miss 38 at App State 48

APP
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:54 · Bryce Lofton punt for 50 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Pregame prior+30.9Home team on offense−1.7Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:01: Frank Gore Jr. run for 75 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +15.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:17: Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +24.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q4 14:01: Jakarius Caston run for 11 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +17.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:33: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 49 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +19.3 pts (now 51%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:37: Kanye Roberts run for 61 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +38.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 6USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:11APP 4th & 7 at APP 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:54USM 4th & 11 at USM 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:49APP 4th & 8 at APP 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:49USM 4th & 24 at USM 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:50USM 4th & 4 at APP 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.7%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:37APP 4th & 1 at APP 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:05USM 4th & 15 at APP 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:30APP 4th & 11 at APP 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:19USM 4th & 7 at APP 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:39APP 4th & 5 at APP 49, down 10
    Close callPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:00USM 4th & 6 at USM 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:44USM 4th & 2 at APP 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    22.5%−2.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−10.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:08APP 4th & 8 at USM 21, up 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.6%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    90.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:39USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:50APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:15USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:14APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:01USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:13APP Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:01USM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:17APP Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:01USM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:33APP Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.6
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 6:37APP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:08APP Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    93.5%−1.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2115% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
84.8%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 11 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
84.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the USM 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+8
84.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the USM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
84.8%
PENALTY USM False Start (McLaurin,Markel) 5 yards from USM48 to USM43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+37
84.8%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 37 yds to the APP 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
84.8%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 4 yds to the APP 16Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
83.5%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 16 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:2284% → 82%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
83.6%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the APP 21Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
83.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 6 yds to the APP 27Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+18
83.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 18 yds to the APP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
83.7%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the APP 45Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
83.6%
Kanye Roberts run for 3 yds to the APP 48Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
83.6%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q1 9:11
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
81.8%
Mitchell Lake punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:1718% → 20%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
81.8%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 4 yds to the USM 18Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+9
81.8%
Kenyon Clay run for 9 yds to the USM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
81.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wiles,Billy pass incomplete deep left to Caston,Jakarius PENALTY APP Holding (Funderburk,Tyrek) 10 yards from USM27 to USM37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
81.6%
Kenyon Clay run for 4 yds to the USM 41Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-15
81.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Crawford,Ethan rush left for 8 yards gain to the USM49 (Jackson,EJ), out of bounds PENALTY USM Personal Foul (Clay,Kenyon) 15 yards from USM41 to USM26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 21
OWN 26
+10
81.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 10 yds to the USM 36Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
81.8%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
80.4%
Bryce Lofton punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:0580% → 79%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+18
80.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 18 yds to the APP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
80.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 12 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
80.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 2 yds to the APP 46Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
80.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Milan TuckerSimilar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
80.5%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Kanye RobertsSimilar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
79.0%
Mitchell Lake punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
78.5%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
78.7%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Latreal JonesSimilar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-14
78.9%
Southern Miss Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-14 Yards) to the USM 16Similar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 24
OWN 16
0
79.2%
Bryce Lofton punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 2:5979% → 82%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
78.8%
Maquel Haywood run for 7 yds to the APP 42Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-2
79.4%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Ja'Len Sims for a loss of 2 yards to the APP 40Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+25
79.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 25 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+27
79.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 27 yds to the USM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
81.7%
Maquel Haywood run for 8 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7MISSED FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 3:5120% → 22%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
79.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the USM 14Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 14
OWN 14
+19
80.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 19 yds to the USM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
79.6%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Latreal JonesSimilar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+14
79.8%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 14 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
78.2%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 17 yds to the APP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
78.1%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Frank Gore Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
78.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 5 yds to the APP 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+11
78.0%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 11 yds to the APP 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
77.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the APP 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
77.6%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Latreal JonesSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
78.0%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
77.6%
Andrew Stein 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:1379% → 78%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
79.1%
Nate Noel run for 8 yds to the APP 28Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+2
79.6%
Kanye Roberts run for 2 yds to the APP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
79.2%
Kanye Roberts run for 9 yds to the APP 39Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
80.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dashaun DavisSimilar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
79.4%
Kanye Roberts run for no gain to the APP 39Similar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
78.4%
Mitchell Lake punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:2223% → 30%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+32
77.4%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 32 yds to the APP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
75.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the APP 42Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
75.7%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Ques McNealSimilar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+42
69.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 42 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
69.9%
Gibbs,Connor kickoff 65 yards to the APP00, Touchback PENALTY USM Offside (Knox,Cameron) 5 yards from USM35 to USM30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0170% → 80%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
70.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
50
+24
72.2%
Joey Aguilar run for 24 yds to the USM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
79.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 26 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1325% → 37%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.5%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the USM 23Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
75.7%
Kenyon Clay run for 3 yds to the USM 26Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
76.2%
Kenyon Clay run for 10 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
74.9%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Tiaquelin MimsSimilar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+43
75.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 43 yds to the APP 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
72.9%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 9 yds to the APP 12Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+2
72.9%
Ethan Crawford run for 2 yds to the APP 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
62.7%
Ethan Crawford run for 10 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:0766% → 65%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
65.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 13 yds to the APP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
66.5%
Kanye Roberts run for 1 yd to the APP 39Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
66.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Makai JacksonSimilar
Q2 3:54
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
64.5%
Joey Aguilar pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13FG
10 plays · 15 yds · 1:4938% → 42%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
61.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the APP 37Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+7
61.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the APP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
61.6%
PENALTY USM False Start (Cavallo,Cole) 5 yards from APP30 to APP35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 15
OPP 35
0
61.8%
Billy Wiles pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+15
61.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wiles,Billy pass intercepted by Parker Jr.,Andrew at APP18 Parker Jr.,Andrew return 12 yards to the APP30 (Gore,Frank) PENALTY APP Pass Interference (Ross,Nick) 15 yards from APP35 to APP20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
61.4%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Tiaquelin MimsSimilar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-5
61.6%
Frank Gore Jr. sacked by Nick Ross for a loss of 5 yards to the APP 25Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 15
OPP 25
0
58.4%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:05
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+42
57.8%
Andrew Stein 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14FUMBLE
8 plays · 38 yds · 1:1958% → 57%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
57.6%
Kanye Roberts run for 2 yds to the APP 16Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+26
56.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 26 yds to the APP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
57.7%
Joey Aguilar run for 4 yds to the APP 46Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
58.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kanye Roberts for 5 yds to the USM 49Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+7
58.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 7 yds to the USM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
56.7%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Jalil Clemons for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 44 Joey Aguilar fumbled, recovered by USM Averie Habas , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15MISSED FG
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:4146% → 50%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
54.0%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
54.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the USM 48Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+13
53.8%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 13 yds to the APP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
51.6%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 6 yds to the APP 33Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
51.1%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the APP 33Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+50
50.5%
Andrew Stein 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4755% → 67%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
55.4%
Kanye Roberts run for 4 yds to the APP 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
55.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 11 yds to the APP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
56.8%
Kanye Roberts run for no gain to the APP 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-8
56.4%
Appalachian State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-8 Yards) to the APP 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 32
+15
54.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey sacked for loss of 5 yards to the APP27 (Carr,Josh, Lewis,Brodarius) PENALTY USM Personal Foul (Lewis,Brodarius) 15 yards from APP32 to APP47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
57.6%
Maquel Haywood run for 4 yds to the APP 43Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+57
66.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 57 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
51.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 75 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:3151% → 47%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
51.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 12 yds to the APP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
51.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Milan TuckerSimilar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
51.7%
Joey Aguilar sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 36Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
49.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Michael HetzelSimilar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+2
47.2%
Mitchell Lake punt for 33 yds , Tiaquelin Mims returns for 2 yds to the USM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:1151% → 55%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
48.9%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 15 yds to the USM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
46.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 16 yds to the APP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
46.1%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
46.2%
Chandler Pittman run for 2 yds to the APP 38Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 12
OPP 38
+5
47.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the APP 33Similar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
45.5%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Tiaquelin MimsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4046% → 44%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
45.5%
Ahmani Marshall run for 8 yds to the APP 41Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+3
47.5%
Ahmani Marshall run for 3 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
47.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 8 yds to the USM 48Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+3
48.6%
Ahmani Marshall run for 3 yds to the APP 49Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
47.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Miller GibbsSimilar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
43.6%
Mitchell Lake punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:1857% → 59%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
43.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the USM 19Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 3
OWN 19
-9
42.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wiles,Billy pass complete short left to Henderson,Tyquan for 6 yards to the USM25 (Clarke,Ronald) PENALTY USM Pass Interference (Jones,Latreal) 9 yards from USM19 to USM10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 12
OWN 10
0
43.9%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 12
OWN 10
-9
41.0%
Billy Wiles sacked by Caden Sullivan for a loss of 9 yards to the USM 1 Billy Wiles fumbled, recovered by APP Michael Fletcher , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 12
OWN 10
-9
41.0%
Billy Wiles sacked by Caden Sullivan for a loss of 9 yards to the USM 1 Billy Wiles fumbled, recovered by APP Michael Fletcher , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q3 5:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.8%
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:1643% → 73%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.3%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
57.0%
Kenyon Clay run for 6 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
56.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
55.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 38Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-5
55.2%
PENALTY USM False Start (Cavazos Jr.,Gabe) 5 yards from USM38 to USM33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+14
58.0%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 14 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
54.0%
PENALTY APP Disconcerting Signals (Parker Jr.,Andrew) 5 yards from USM47 to APP48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 5
OPP 48
0
53.0%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incomplete to Tiaquelin MimsSimilar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+2
53.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the APP 46Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+11
54.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 11 yds to the APP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
51.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the APP 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+4
44.8%
Billy Wiles run for 4 yds to the APP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
44.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the APP 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+7
44.8%
Kenyon Clay run for 7 yds to the APP 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
27.1%
Jakarius Caston run for 11 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:2229% → 51%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
29.2%
Kanye Roberts run for 2 yds to the APP 24Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+6
29.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kanye Roberts for 6 yds to the APP 30Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+20
29.2%
Joey Aguilar run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
50
0
32.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 10
50
+1
32.1%
Joey Aguilar run for 1 yd to the USM 49Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+49
51.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 49 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:3354% → 60%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
45.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 26Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
45.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 10 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
43.7%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the USM 36Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
44.6%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the USM 36Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+4
41.6%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 4 yds to the USM 40Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
40.4%
Bryce Lofton punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 26TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:2345% → 84%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
44.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 11 yds to the APP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
45.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 8 yds to the APP 39Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+61
83.8%
Kanye Roberts run for 61 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 3:4725% → 18%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
75.1%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Tiaquelin MimsSimilar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
75.6%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 10 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
74.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wiles,Billy pass incomplete deep right to Mims,Tiaquelin PENALTY APP Pass Interference (Favors,Jordan) 15 yards from USM30 to USM45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
71.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 48Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+1
70.5%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tyquan Henderson for 1 yd to the USM 47Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+15
82.7%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 15 yds to the APP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
79.2%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
79.3%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 5 yds to the APP 33Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+3
79.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the APP 30Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 2
OPP 30
0
81.7%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Tiaquelin MimsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 28TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:3691% → 97%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
90.7%
Joey Aguilar run for 7 yds to the APP 37Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+40
91.5%
Kanye Roberts run for 25 yds to the USM 38 for a 1ST down Southern Miss Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (MJ Daniels) to the USM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
92.4%
Kanye Roberts run for 4 yds to the USM 19Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
93.9%
Kanye Roberts run for no gain to the USM 19Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+2
93.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 2 yds Eli Wilson fumbled, recovered by APP Joey Aguilar at USM21,Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+21
97.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 21 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
97.1%
Kenyon Clay run for 13 yds to the USM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:37
Kanye Roberts run for 61 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
+38
TD · Q3 5:17
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
+24.8
TD · Q4 11:33
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 49 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)
+19.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com