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ULM

UL Monroe 28 at Georgia Southern 38

GASO
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:44 · Braxton Guilbeau punt for 31 yds, downed at the GASO 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Pregame prior+15.4Home team on offense+15.5Score differential+5.4Garbage-time factor+2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:14: Jalen White run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — GASO win probability +4.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:11: Jalen White run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — GASO win probability +4.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:28: Davis Brin pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 14 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — GASO win probability +4.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:52: Hunter Smith run for 20 yds for a TD (B. Mortimer Run For Two-point Conversion) — ULM win probability +33.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 1:53: Tyrell Davis 28 Yd Interception Return (Michael Lantz Kick) — GASO win probability +18.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 7:59ULM 4th & 11 at ULM 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:48GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:19ULM 4th & 8 at GASO 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    18.7%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:01GASO 4th & 10 at ULM 10, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:55GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:01ULM 4th & 7 at GASO 42, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    8.4%−0.8
    30% to make
    Punt
    9.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:03ULM 4th & 10 at GASO 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−5.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:43GASO 4th & 6 at ULM 30, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.9%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:44ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:14GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 32, up 14
    Close callPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:35ULM 4th & 2 at GASO 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−1.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:23GASO 4th & 25 at GASO 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−2.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:56ULM 4th & 9 at GASO 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:45GASO 4th & 18 at GASO 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−2.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:30ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 26, down 11
    Close callPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:49ULM 4th & 20 at ULM 22, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:51ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:27GASO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:14GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:11GASO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:28GASO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:34ULM Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:52ULM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    18.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:53GASO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASODrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:5189% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+24
89.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 24 yds to the ULM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
89.1%
Jalen White run for 5 yds to the ULM 41Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 5
OPP 41
-7
89.0%
GS run for a loss of 7 yards to the ULM 48 fumbled, recovered by ULM Jessaia MoalaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 2:1311% → 12%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
88.9%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 18 yds to the GASO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
88.7%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the GASO 31Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+14
88.5%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 14 yds to the GASO 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
88.3%
Isaiah Woullard run for 8 yds to the GASO 9Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+9
87.6%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 9 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2388% → 88%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.8%
Jalen White run for 7 yds to the GASO 32Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
87.7%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+16
87.6%
Jalen White run for 16 yds to the GASO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
87.6%
Jalen White run for no gain to the GASO 48Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
87.4%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+52
87.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 52 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1812% → 13%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
87.8%
Hunter Smith run for 1 yd to the ULM 30Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+9
87.7%
Blake Murphy pass complete to NyNy Davis for 9 yds to the ULM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
87.3%
ULM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 36 fumbled, recovered by ULM Blake MurphySimilar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+2
87.3%
Blake Murphy run for 2 yds to the ULM 38Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
87.1%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
87.2%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 44 yds · 3:0287% → 86%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
86.9%
OJ Arnold run for 8 yds to the GASO 12Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 2
OWN 12
+6
86.9%
OJ Arnold run for 6 yds to the GASO 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
86.7%
OJ Arnold run for 7 yds to the GASO 25Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+4
86.8%
OJ Arnold run for 4 yds to the GASO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
86.5%
OJ Arnold run for 7 yds to the GASO 36Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+10
86.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 10 yds to the GASO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
86.8%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the GASO 48Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
86.7%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
86.4%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
86.1%
Alex Smith punt for 35 yds, downed at the ULM 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:2014% → 16%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-4
86.0%
Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 4 yards to the ULM 13Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 14
OWN 13
+3
85.8%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Alred Luke for 3 yds Alred Luke fumbled, recovered by ULMSimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 14
OWN 13
+24
85.9%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Alred Luke for 24 yds to the ULM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
85.3%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Alred Luke for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 35Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+18
85.3%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 18 yds to the GASO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
84.2%
Jiya Wright run for 3 yds to the GASO 44Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-1
84.0%
Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 45Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
83.8%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:19
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
84.5%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 41 yds, downed at the GASO 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7INT
7 plays · 58 yds · 3:2285% → 85%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
85.0%
Jalen White run for 5 yds to the GASO 9Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 5
OWN 9
-2
84.8%
Jalen White run for a loss of 2 yards to the GASO 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+13
84.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 13 yds to the GASO 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
84.5%
Jalen White run for 31 yds to the ULM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
85.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 5 yds to the ULM 44Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
85.1%
David Mbadinga run for 6 yds to the ULM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
84.9%
Davis Brin pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:0817% → 20%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
83.0%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for no gain to the ULM 24Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
82.7%
Blake Murphy run for 4 yds to the ULM 28Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+21
82.6%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 21 yds to the ULM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
80.9%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-10
81.1%
(10:26) MURPHY, Blake pass to the left complete for 7 yards to QUINLAN, Nolan caught at the ULM43 and advanced to the GS44 (BARTHOLOMEW, Shemar), clock 10:17. PENALTY ULM Holding on WILKINS, Stacey enforced 10 yards from the ULM49 to the ULM39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 20
OWN 39
+13
81.6%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 13 yds to the GASO 48Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-12
80.2%
Blake Murphy sacked by Justin Rhodes and Isaac Walker for a loss of 12 yards to the ULM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:3483% → 88%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
83.3%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
82.9%
JC French run for 6 yds to the GASO 46Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+8
82.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 8 yds to the ULM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
83.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 23 yds to the ULM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
83.6%
(07:00) BRIN, Davis pass deep to the left incomplete intended for THOMPSON, Joshua thrown to the ULM0, clock 06:54. PENALTY ULM Pass Interference on WATTS, A.J. enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the ULM8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
83.5%
Jalen White run for 6 yds to the ULM 2Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.8%
Jalen White run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:4313% → 13%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
86.6%
Hunter Smith run for 1 yd to the ULM 9Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
86.6%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 9
OWN 9
-7
87.0%
Jiya Wright sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the ULM 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 5:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.2%
Jalen White run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
90.2%
Blake Murphy run for a loss of 8 yards to the ULM 17 Blake Murphy fumbled, recovered by GASO Justin MeyersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:3691% → 96%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
91.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jalen White for 3 yds to the ULM 14Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
96.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 14 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14INT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:005% → 5%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
95.0%
UL Monroe Penalty, Offensive Holding (Zarian McGill) to the ULM 18Similar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 17
OWN 18
+5
95.3%
Georgia Southern Penalty, Delay Of Game (5 Yards) to the ULM 23Similar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 12
OWN 23
+3
95.3%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the ULM 26Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
95.4%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
95.5%
Jiya Wright pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1496% → 96%
Q2 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
96.4%
Jalen White run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 12Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
96.4%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
96.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jalen White for 2 yds to the ULM 10Similar
Q2 2:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
96.2%
Michael Lantz 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:254% → 9%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.6%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
95.7%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Alred Luke for 24 yds to the ULM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
91.4%
Blake Murphy pass complete to NyNy Davis for 51 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:3894% → 93%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
93.9%
Jalen White run for 18 yds to the GASO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
94.1%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
94.0%
Jalen White run for 4 yds to the GASO 47Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 6
OWN 47
-3
93.5%
Davis Brin sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the GASO 44Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
93.1%
Alex Smith punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:478% → 6%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
92.2%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 3 yds to the ULM 23Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+12
92.3%
Blake Murphy run for 12 yds to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
91.8%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Alred Luke for 20 yds to the GASO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 22
OWN 43
+6
94.8%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Alred Luke for 6 yds to the ULM 49Similar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-12
93.5%
Blake Murphy sacked by Elhadj Fall for a loss of 12 yards to the ULM 43Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+9
95.1%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 9 yds to the GASO 42Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
93.8%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19Uncategorized
1 play · 24 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+24
93.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 24 yds to the ULM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:568% → 10%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.3%
Blake Murphy pass complete to NyNy Davis for 3 yds to the ULM 28Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
92.4%
Isaiah Woullard run for 4 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
92.4%
UL Monroe Penalty, False Start (Keydrell Lewis) to the ULM 27Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+54
92.8%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 54 yds to the GASO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
91.5%
Blake Murphy sacked by Marques Watson-Trent for a loss of 4 yards to the GASO 23Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 14
OPP 23
+15
92.3%
Blake Murphy pass complete to NyNy Davis for 15 yds to the GASO 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
91.7%
Jiya Wright run for no gain to the GASO 8Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
91.8%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
92.3%
Jiya Wright sacked by Elhadj Fall for a loss of 2 yards to the GASO 10Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
90.5%
Derek McCormick 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21MISSED FG
12 plays · 40 yds · 4:1292% → 93%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
92.2%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the GASO 32Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+10
92.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 10 yds to the GASO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
92.6%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
92.5%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+13
92.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 13 yds to the ULM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
92.8%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the ULM 43Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
93.3%
Jalen White run for 7 yds to the ULM 36Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
93.1%
JC French run for 2 yds to the ULM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
93.4%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
93.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 4 yds to the ULM 30Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
93.2%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+48
92.7%
Michael Lantz 48 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5310% → 8%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
90.4%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
90.6%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for no gain to the ULM 45Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
91.3%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
92.0%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 31 yds, downed at the GASO 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2193% → 92%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
93.2%
Khaleb Hood run for 5 yds to the GASO 29Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+3
93.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 3 yds Jjay Mcafee fumbled, recovered by GASO Jjay McafeeSimilar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
91.9%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
91.7%
Alex Smith punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 39 yds · 2:328% → 9%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+31
91.7%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for 31 yds to the GASO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
89.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 46Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+6
90.2%
Isaiah Woullard run for 6 yds to the GASO 40Similar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+3
90.5%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the GASO 37Similar
Q3 0:35
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
90.9%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:0395% → 94%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
95.0%
Jalen White run for 4 yds to the GASO 41Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+6
95.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 6 yds to the GASO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
95.3%
Jalen White run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 7
50
0
95.5%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 7
50
-18
95.3%
Davis Brin sacked for a loss of 18 yards to the GASO 32Similar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 25
OWN 32
0
94.4%
Alex Smith punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 26FG
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:188% → 12%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+38
92.4%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 38 yds to the GASO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
91.1%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
91.0%
Hunter Smith run for 1 yd to the GASO 33Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 9
OPP 33
0
91.6%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:56
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+50
88.4%
Derek McCormick 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:1091% → 93%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jalen White for 8 yds to the GASO 33Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
91.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 8 yds to the GASO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
91.9%
Jalen White run for 3 yds to the GASO 44Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
93.7%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-11
93.2%
Davis Brin sacked by Adin Huntington for a loss of 11 yards to the GASO 33Similar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 18
OWN 33
0
92.9%
Alex Smith punt for 48 yds, downed at the ULM 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:049% → 7%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
91.3%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Alred Luke for 4 yds to the ULM 23Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+3
91.6%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the ULM 26Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
91.5%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
92.7%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 74 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 29FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1794% → 95%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
94.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 5 yds to the GASO 25Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
94.4%
David Mbadinga run for no gain to the GASO 25Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+15
94.4%
(07:10) BRIN, Davis pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for HOOD, Khaleb thrown to the GS45, clock 07:06. PENALTY ULM Pass Interference on HINES, Simion enforced 15 yards to the GS40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-11
95.1%
Jalen White run for a loss of 11 yards to the GASO 20 Jalen White fumbled, recovered by ULM Earl Barquet Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 30TD
1 play · 20 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
61.4%
Hunter Smith run for 20 yds for a TD (B. Mortimer Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 31INT
9 plays · 68 yds · 4:0977% → 74%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
77.3%
Jalen White run for 4 yds to the GASO 14Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+6
77.1%
Jalen White run for 6 yds to the GASO 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
77.1%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the GASO 22Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
76.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 5 yds to the GASO 27Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
78.9%
Jalen White run for 4 yds to the GASO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+45
81.6%
Jalen White run for 45 yds to the ULM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
86.2%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 2 yds to the ULM 22Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
89.3%
Davis Brin pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-11
74.3%
(02:28) QB Keeper MURPHY, Blake rush to the left for a gain of 11 yards to the ULM22 (JACKSON, Khadry;WATSON-TRENT, Marques), clock 02:19. PENALTY ULM Holding on WILKINS, Stacey enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the ULM11 to the ULM6 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 32INT TD
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:2025% → 5%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+4
75.2%
Jiya Wright run for 4 yds to the ULM 10Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 11
OWN 10
-28
95.5%
Tyrell Davis 28 Yd Interception Return (Michael Lantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 33DOWNS
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:565% → 4%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
95.5%
Blake Murphy sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 13Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
95.6%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+19
95.9%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 19 yds to the ULM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
95.0%
(01:15) MURPHY, Blake pass to the right complete for 12 yards to DAVIS, NyNy caught at the ULM38 and advanced to the ULM44, End of Play, clock 01:09. PENALTY ULM Holding on WILKINS, Stacey enforced 10 yards from the ULM32 to the ULM22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 20
OWN 22
0
95.7%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 20
OWN 22
0
95.7%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 20
OWN 22
0
96.0%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 20
OWN 22
0
96.1%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 34END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
97.1%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:52
Hunter Smith run for 20 yds for a TD (B. Mortimer Run For Two-point Conversion)
-33.7
TD · Q4 1:53
Tyrell Davis 28 Yd Interception Return (Michael Lantz Kick)
+18.7
TD · Q2 4:28
Davis Brin pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 14 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
+4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com