Try the model
USM

Southern Miss 3 at South Alabama 55

USA
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 17, 2023 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.3USA 99.5%Diego Guajardo 39 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 34 · Q3 10:05
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:05 · Diego Guajardo 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Pregame prior+19.0Home team on offense+31.2Score differential+21.2Blowout margin+8.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.3Garbage-time factor+9.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:17: La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +1.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:17: Timeout South Alabama, clock 04:17 — USM win probability +1.2 pts (now 11%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:30: La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +3.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:30: Timeout South Alabama, clock 10:30 — USM win probability +0.6 pts (now 6%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 7:03: Kentrel Bullock run for 17 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USM made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 8:53USM 4th & 6 at USM 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:18USM 4th & 6 at USM 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:16USM 4th & 15 at USM 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:29USM 4th & 20 at USM 27, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.3%−2.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:45USA 4th & 6 at USM 6, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:17USM 4th & 10 at USM 25, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:03USM 4th & 4 at USM 31, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:05USA 4th & 7 at USM 22, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:02USM 4th & 7 at USA 37, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:40USM 4th & 8 at USA 15, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:25USM 4th & 7 at USA 38, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:30USM 4th & 15 at USM 13, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 11:07USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:17USA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:30USA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:03USA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:41USA Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:20USA Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:47USA Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5389% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 9 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+16
88.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+12
88.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 12 yds to the USM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
88.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 10 yds to the USM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
88.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the USM 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+1
88.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the USM 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+10
88.8%
Southern Miss Penalty, Defensive Holding (Brodarius Lewis) to the USM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
88.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 6 yds to the USM 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+2
88.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the USM 5Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
88.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:0812% → 12%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
88.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
88.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the USM 36Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+5
88.2%
PENALTY USA Delay Of Game (Sheriff,Jamie) 5 yards from USM36 to USM41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
88.2%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
88.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the USM 45Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
88.2%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Latreal JonesSimilar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
88.0%
Bryce Lofton punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 4:3688% → 90%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
88.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 8 yds to the USA 23Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 2
OWN 23
0
88.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for no gain to the USA 23Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+5
88.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 5 yds to the USA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
88.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 13 yds to the USA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+34
88.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 34 yds to the USM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
88.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the USM 24Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+10
88.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 10 yds to the USM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
88.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the USM 10Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+1
88.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the USM 9Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+6
88.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 6 yds to the USM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5211% → 11%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
88.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the USM 37Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+3
88.8%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 3 yds to the USM 40Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+2
88.8%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 2 yds to the USM 42Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 1
OWN 42
-5
88.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gore,Frank rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USM45 (Gamble,Dallas) PENALTY USM Illegal Formation 5 yards from USM42 to USM37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
88.9%
Bryce Lofton punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 6:4891% → 95%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
90.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the USA 24Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
90.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 8 yds to the USA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
90.7%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to DJ Thomas-JonesSimilar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-10
90.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Webb,La'Damian rush left for 28 yards gain to the USM40 (Lawrence,Dylan), out of bounds PENALTY USA Holding (Smith,Reggie) 10 yards from USA32 to USA22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 20
OWN 22
+33
90.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 33 yds to the USM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
91.2%
Carter Bradley run for 2 yds to the USM 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+1
91.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USM 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+8
91.0%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 8 yds to the USM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
91.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamaal PritchettSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
91.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the USM 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+17
91.0%
Carter Bradley run for 17 yds to the USM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
91.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 6 yds to the USM 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+1
91.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the USM 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+6
91.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 6 yds to the USM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:146% → 6%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.1%
Billy Wiles run for 1 yd to the USM 26Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
94.2%
Billy Wiles pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-6
94.3%
Billy Wiles sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the USM 20Similar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+8
94.4%
Bryce Lofton punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 49 , Caullin Lacy returns for 8 yds to the USA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:1396% → 98%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
96.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 7 yds to the USM 44Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+5
96.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the USM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
96.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 8 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+1
96.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USM 32Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+15
96.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 15 yds to the USM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
97.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 17 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:272% → 2%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
97.8%
Holman Edwards pass complete to Tyquan Henderson for 9 yds to the USM 36Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+1
97.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.8%
Holman Edwards pass incomplete to Davis DaltonSimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-3
97.7%
Holman Edwards sacked by Maurice Strong Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 34Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+2
97.8%
Holman Edwards run for 2 yds to the USM 32 Holman Edwards fumbled, recovered by USMSimilar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 15
OWN 32
-5
97.8%
PENALTY USM False Start (Toles,Brendan) 5 yards from USM32 to USM27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:29
4TH & 20
OWN 27
0
98.2%
Bryce Lofton punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:4498% → 99%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
98.0%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 4 yds to the USA 33Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+50
98.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 50 yds to the USM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
98.1%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+13
98.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 13 yds to the USM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
98.1%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 3Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.1%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 2 yds to the USM 1Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.1%
Marco Lee Jr. run for no gain to the USM 1Similar
Q2 0:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
98.7%
PENALTY USA False Start (Lucas,Dontae) 5 yards from USM01 to USM06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
98.8%
Diego Guajardo 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 0:281% → 1%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Holman Edwards pass incomplete to Frank Gore Jr.Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.1%
PENALTY USM False Start (Cavazos Jr.,Gabe) 5 yards from USM25 to USM20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
99.1%
Chandler Pittman run for no gain to the USM 20Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+5
99.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the USM 25Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.2%
Bryce Lofton punt for 45 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 6 yds to the USA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11MISSED FG
3 plays · 41 yds · 0:1799% → 99%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+27
98.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 27 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
98.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 14 yds to the USM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+41
99.0%
Diego Guajardo 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:571% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.9%
Holman Edwards pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 1 yd to the USM 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
98.9%
Holman Edwards pass complete to Latreal Jones for 7 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
98.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q3 13:03
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.3%
Bryce Lofton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:5899% → 100%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for no gain to the USA 31Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+10
99.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 10 yds to the USA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.2%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+12
99.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 12 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
99.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 8 yds to the USM 39Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+14
99.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 14 yds to the USM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the USM 22Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
99.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
99.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
99.5%
Diego Guajardo 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:221% → 1%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
99.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+12
99.4%
Shotgun Edwards,Holman pass incomplete short left to Caston,Jakarius, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USA Pass Interference (Fletcher,Ricky) 12 yards from USM30 to USM42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
99.4%
Holman Edwards run for 18 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.3%
Holman Edwards pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
99.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the USA 41Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+4
99.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the USA 37Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+20
99.4%
Holman Edwards pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 20 yds to the USA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
99.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USA 14Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
99.3%
Holman Edwards pass incomplete to Davis DaltonSimilar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+1
99.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the USA 15Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
99.2%
Andrew Stein 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 0:59100% → 100%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+24
99.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 24 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
99.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 20 yds to the USM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 16 yds for a TD Southern Miss Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Rodrigues Clark) declined (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.7%
Meeks,Jacob kickoff 60 yards to the USM05 Clark,Rodrigues return 7 yards to the USM12 (Wallace, Jr.,Christopher ; Sibley,Emauri) PENALTY USA Offside 5 yards from USA35 to USA30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 2:100% → 0%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.7%
Holman Edwards pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 4 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Edwards,Holman pass incomplete deep right to Mims,Tiaquelin PENALTY USA Holding (Jordan,Jalen) 10 yards from USM34 to USM44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Edwards,Holman pass incomplete deep left to Caston,Jakarius PENALTY USA Pass Interference (Fletcher,Ricky) 15 yards from USM44 to USA41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.7%
Holman Edwards pass incomplete to Latreal JonesSimilar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
99.7%
Holman Edwards pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+3
99.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Holman Edwards pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 1:05100% → 100%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the USA 42Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+29
99.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 29 yds to the USM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
99.8%
Dorian Smith run for 29 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18INT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Holman Edwards pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.8%
South Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
99.9%
Holman Edwards run for 7 yds to the USM 33 Holman Edwards fumbled, recovered by USM Holman EdwardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Holman Edwards pass incomplete to Latreal JonesSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 17
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Holman Edwards pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19TD
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:58100% → 100%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.8%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
99.8%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 11 yds to the USM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Gio Lopez run for 20 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:110% → 0%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
99.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 19Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+2
99.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the USM 21Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 7
OWN 21
-8
99.9%
Holman Edwards sacked by Jordan Norman for a loss of 8 yards to the USM 13Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 15
OWN 13
+5
99.9%
Bryce Lofton punt for 42 yds , Jamaal Pritchett returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:06100% → 100%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
50
+12
99.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jacob Hopper for 12 yds to the USM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
99.9%
Dorian Smith run for 5 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+6
99.9%
Jarvis Durr run for 6 yds to the USM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lopez,Gio rush middle for 27 yards gain to the USM00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:43 PENALTY USA Holding 10 yards from USM27 to USM37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+1
99.9%
Jarvis Durr run for 1 yd to the USM 36Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 19
OPP 36
+13
99.9%
Jarvis Durr run for 13 yds to the USM 23Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Gio Lopez pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22FUMBLE
11 plays · 68 yds · 7:460% → 0%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
100.0%
Kenyon Clay run for 7 yds to the USM 13Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+3
100.0%
Kenyon Clay run for 3 yds to the USM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
100.0%
Kenyon Clay run for 7 yds to the USM 23Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+15
100.0%
Kenyon Clay run for 15 yds to the USM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
100.0%
Kenyon Clay run for 11 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
100.0%
Kenyon Clay run for 3 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
100.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+7
100.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 7 yds to the USA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
100.0%
Kenyon Clay run for 7 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+2
99.9%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the USA 29Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+3
100.0%
Kenyon Clay run for 3 yds to the USA 26 Kenyon Clay fumbled, recovered by USA Jamall HickbottomSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
100.0%
Jonathon Carter run for 8 yds to the USA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:30
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+3.8
TD · Q1 4:17
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q2 7:03
Kentrel Bullock run for 17 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com