Try the model
ULM

UL Monroe 20 at Texas State 21

TXST
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:15 · Braxton Guilbeau punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 97Pregame prior+25.4Home team on offense−1.2Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 8:24: Derek McCormick 47 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +8.0 pts (now 31%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 14:58: Derek McCormick 22 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +8.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:57: Ja'Terious Evans 76 Yd Interception Return (Derek McCormick Kick) — ULM win probability +33.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:16: TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — TXST win probability +10.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:41: TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 22 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — TXST win probability +64.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 10 of 10ULM made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 8:56TXST 4th & 6 at ULM 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:47ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:18TXST 4th & 22 at TXST 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:09TXST 4th & 7 at ULM 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    79.5%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:14ULM 4th & 18 at ULM 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:37TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:36ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 40, up 1
    Close callPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:06TXST 4th & 11 at ULM 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    77.3%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:04ULM 4th & 1 at TXST 1, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    18.7%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−6.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:04ULM 4th & 1 at TXST 1, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    18.7%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−6.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:59TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 5, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:15ULM 4th & 1 at TXST 48, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:20TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 44, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:10ULM 4th & 30 at TXST 43, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−2.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    21.9%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:00TXST 4th & 25 at TXST 5, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−4.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:24ULM 4th & 7 at TXST 30, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:27TXST 4th & 7 at ULM 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    67.0%−1.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:58ULM 4th & 2 at TXST 5, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.6%−3.0
    92% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−20.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:52TXST 4th & 1 at ULM 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    48.4%−6.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−5.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:15ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 32, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 0 of 2ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:24ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 8:57ULM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:16TXST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:41TXST Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 3.2 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.8%−3.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1FG
18 plays · 69 yds · 6:0491% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.4%
Kole Wilson run for 3 yds to the TXST 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+4
91.4%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TXST 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
91.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 14 yds to the TXST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
91.4%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+9
91.4%
Calvin Hill run for 9 yds to the ULM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
91.4%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Joey HobertSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
91.4%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the ULM 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+6
91.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 6 yds to the ULM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
91.4%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
91.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the ULM 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+5
91.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the ULM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
91.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the ULM 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+16
91.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 16 yds to the ULM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
91.4%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Sean Shaw Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
91.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Konner Fox for 3 yds to the ULM 6Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
91.4%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q1 8:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+29
90.0%
Mason Shipley 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0310% → 10%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
89.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds to the ULM 25Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Hunter Smith run for no gain to the ULM 25Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
90.0%
Jiya Wright pass incomplete to Dariyan WileySimilar
Q1 7:47
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:2990% → 89%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+5
89.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 5 yds to the TXST 26Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
89.6%
Malik Hornsby run for 2 yds to the TXST 24Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 22
OWN 14
0
89.4%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 22
OWN 14
0
88.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:5411% → 14%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
89.0%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for 6 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+15
88.9%
Jiya Wright run for 15 yds to the TXST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
88.8%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for 5 yds to the TXST 26Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+6
88.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for 6 yds to the TXST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
88.8%
Jiya Wright pass incomplete to Tyrone HowellSimilar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
88.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for 1 yd to the TXST 21Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+11
89.0%
Jiya Wright run for 11 yds to the TXST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
86.2%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Isaiah Woullard for 10 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 4:1587% → 86%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
86.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 7 yds to the TXST 32Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
87.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the TXST 32Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
86.8%
TJ Finley run for 5 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
87.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 8 yds to the TXST 45Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+2
87.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+7
87.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
50
0
87.5%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Sean Shaw Jr.Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 10
50
+8
87.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Calvin Hill for 8 yds to the ULM 42Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+22
86.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 22 yds to the ULM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
86.4%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
86.4%
TJ Finley run for 3 yds to the ULM 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
86.0%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
86.0%
Mason Shipley 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:5515% → 15%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
85.2%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 10 yds to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.0%
UL Monroe Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 24
OWN 21
+2
85.3%
Jiya Wright run for 2 yds to the ULM 19Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 26
OWN 19
+8
84.9%
Hunter Smith run for 8 yds to the ULM 27Similar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 18
OWN 27
0
84.9%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TXST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3785% → 84%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
84.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TXST 26Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
84.6%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
84.1%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
83.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bugs Mortimer at the ULM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0117% → 17%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
83.4%
Isaiah Woullard run for 5 yds to the ULM 38Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
82.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds to the ULM 40Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
83.0%
Jiya Wright pass incomplete to Isaiah WoullardSimilar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
83.2%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:3084% → 84%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
83.7%
Donerio Davenport run for 7 yds to the TXST 19Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+8
83.8%
Donerio Davenport run for 8 yds to the TXST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
83.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 5 yds to the TXST 32Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+11
84.4%
Donerio Davenport run for 11 yds to the TXST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
84.8%
Donerio Davenport run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 3
50
+3
85.0%
Donerio Davenport run for 3 yds to the ULM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
85.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 18 yds to the ULM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
85.5%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the ULM 30Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 11
OPP 30
0
85.4%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Joey HobertSimilar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 11
OPP 30
0
84.7%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Joey HobertSimilar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+47
84.3%
Mason Shipley 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10DOWNS
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:0216% → 19%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
83.6%
Bugs Mortimer run for 6 yds to the ULM 41Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
82.8%
Hunter Smith run for 2 yds to the ULM 43Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+12
82.9%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 12 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+41
82.5%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for 41 yds to the TXST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
81.8%
Jiya Wright run for 1 yd to the TXST 5Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
80.4%
Hunter Smith run for 4 yds to the TXST 1Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.0%
Jiya Wright run for no gain to the TXST 1Similar
Q2 3:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.8%
Jiya Wright run for no gain to the TXST 1Similar
Q2 3:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.8%
Jiya Wright run for no gain to the TXST 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0583% → 81%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
82.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the TXST 1Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
82.4%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 4 yds to the TXST 5Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
81.8%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Joey HobertSimilar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
80.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ULM 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:4420% → 19%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
80.1%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Hunter Smith for 9 yds to the TXST 48Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+1
78.9%
Hunter Smith run for 1 yd to the TXST 49Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+1
79.4%
Jiya Wright run for 1 yd to the TXST 48Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
80.7%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:5584% → 83%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
84.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 10 yds to the TXST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
84.1%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Joey HobertSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
83.8%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+15
83.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 15 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
85.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Donerio Davenport for 3 yds to the TXST 44Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
85.2%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
84.4%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
83.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
82.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 6 yds to the ULM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 2:4519% → 20%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.2%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the ULM 28Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
81.0%
Isaiah Woullard run for 1 yd to the ULM 29Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+20
81.6%
Jiya Wright run for 20 yds to the ULM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
78.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wright,Jiya rush right for 15 yards gain to the TXST08, out of bounds at TXST08 PENALTY ULM Holding (Wilkins,Stacey) 10 yards from TXST23 to TXST33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 20
OPP 33
0
78.9%
Jiya Wright pass incomplete to Dariyan WileySimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 20
OPP 33
-5
79.4%
PENALTY ULM False Start 5 yards from TXST33 to TXST38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 25
OPP 38
+5
80.0%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Isaiah Woullard for 5 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 30
OPP 43
0
79.1%
Jiya Wright pass incomplete to Dariyan WileySimilar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 30
OPP 43
0
80.2%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 2:1080% → 77%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
79.9%
Malik Hornsby run for 2 yds to the TXST 22Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
79.7%
Malik Hornsby run for 1 yd to the TXST 23Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 18
OWN 12
-7
78.7%
TJ Finley sacked by Adin Huntington for a loss of 7 yards to the TXST 5Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 25
OWN 5
0
76.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3626% → 31%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
74.2%
Jiya Wright pass incomplete to Alred LukeSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
74.4%
Jiya Wright run for 3 yds to the TXST 36Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+6
76.9%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Alred Luke for 6 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
68.9%
Derek McCormick 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:5772% → 69%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
72.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 38Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+17
74.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 17 yds to the ULM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 20
OWN 45
0
72.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the TXST 45Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+4
72.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the TXST 49Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+9
71.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 9 yds to the ULM 42Similar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 7
OPP 42
-6
69.2%
TJ Finley sacked by Adin Huntington for a loss of 6 yards to the ULM 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:2938% → 52%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
62.3%
Isaiah Woullard run for 14 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
61.6%
Isaiah Woullard run for 11 yds to the TXST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
59.6%
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+9
60.3%
Jiya Wright pass complete to NyNy Davis for 9 yds to the TXST 20Similar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+2
60.4%
Jiya Wright pass complete to for 2 yds to the TXST 18Similar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
57.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds to the TXST 11Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+5
57.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 5 yds to the TXST 6Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+1
56.3%
Isaiah Woullard run for 1 yd to the TXST 5Similar
Q4 14:58
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
47.7%
Derek McCormick 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20INT TD
14 plays · 51 yds · 5:5549% → 21%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
48.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 8 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+8
51.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 8 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
50.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 6 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+1
53.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 42Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+6
51.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Konner Fox for 6 yds to the TXST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
53.3%
Donerio Davenport run for 1 yd to the TXST 49Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+6
52.8%
Donerio Davenport run for 6 yds to the ULM 45Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+2
53.6%
Donerio Davenport run for 2 yds to the ULM 43Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+1
51.5%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the ULM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
54.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the ULM 41Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+8
54.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 8 yds to the ULM 33Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+5
54.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 5 yds to the ULM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-76
20.6%
Ja'Terious Evans 76 Yd Interception Return (Derek McCormick Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:4116% → 30%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
16.0%
Donerio Davenport run for 8 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
16.9%
Donerio Davenport run for 6 yds to the TXST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
15.9%
Donerio Davenport run for 6 yds to the TXST 45Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+6
16.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 6 yds to the ULM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
17.1%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Joey HobertSimilar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
16.6%
Donerio Davenport run for 8 yds to the ULM 41Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+15
16.9%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 15 yds to the ULM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
19.3%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
18.8%
TJ Finley run for 5 yds to the ULM 21Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+8
18.2%
TJ Finley run for 8 yds to the ULM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
19.2%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Joey HobertSimilar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
19.2%
TJ Finley run for 2 yds to the ULM 11Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
30.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:0182% → 83%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.1%
Hunter Smith run for no gain to the ULM 25Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.6%
Jiya Wright run for 2 yds to the ULM 23Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+9
18.6%
Hunter Smith run for 9 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
17.0%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 2:3415% → 83%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
15.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 8 yds to the TXST 32Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+13
16.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 13 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
17.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 7 yds to the ULM 48Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
18.7%
Donerio Davenport run for 4 yds to the ULM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
19.2%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Donerio DavenportSimilar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
18.1%
Donerio Davenport run for 8 yds to the ULM 36Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+3
18.0%
TJ Finley run for 3 yds to the ULM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
20.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Donerio Davenport for 7 yds to the ULM 26Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
20.8%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Joey HobertSimilar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+9
19.1%
Donerio Davenport run for 9 yds to the ULM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
83.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 22 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24END OF GAME
11 plays · 29 yds · 0:4129% → 20%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
70.6%
Jiya Wright run for 16 yds to the ULM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
69.7%
Jiya Wright pass incomplete to Bugs MortimerSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+19
70.9%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Isaiah Woullard for 19 yds to the TXST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
62.4%
Jiya Wright pass incomplete to Dariyan WileySimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-15
64.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wright,Jiya pass complete short left to Mortimer,Bugs for 12 yards to the TXST28, out of bounds at TXST28 PENALTY ULM Pass Interference (Wiley,Dariyan) 15 yards from TXST40 to ULM45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 25
OWN 45
+2
72.6%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Isaiah Woullard for 2 yds to the ULM 43Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 27
OWN 43
+11
80.5%
Jiya Wright run for 11 yds to the TXST 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:41
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 22 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+64.3
TD · Q4 8:57
Ja'Terious Evans 76 Yd Interception Return (Derek McCormick Kick)
-33.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+19.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com