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USA

South Alabama 55 at UL Monroe 7

ULM
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.2ULM 0.3%Diego Guajardo 46 yd FG GOODAWAY 48 - HOME 7 · Q4 10:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:33 · Diego Guajardo 46 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 142Home team on offense−54.8Pregame prior−7.2Score differential−33.6Garbage-time factor−14.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 13:55: Diego Guajardo 37 yd FG GOOD — USA win probability +2.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:57: Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 44 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +2.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:23: Marco Lee Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +3.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:00: Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 14 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK) — ULM win probability +8.8 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:46: La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00USA 4th & 4 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:24ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:24USA 4th & 3 at midfield, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    76.3%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:55USA 4th & 19 at ULM 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−1.9
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    73.8%−4.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:35ULM 4th & 21 at ULM 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−1.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:55ULM 4th & 7 at USA 24, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:24ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:28USA 4th & 4 at ULM 25, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    92.7%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:37ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 28, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:33ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 30, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:33USA 4th & 6 at ULM 28, up 38
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:16ULM 4th & 6 at USA 16, down 41
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:20USA 4th & 3 at ULM 3, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:57USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:29USA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:57USA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:23USA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:00ULM Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:46USA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:23USA Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:20USA Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0384% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
16.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 19 yds to the USA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
16.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the USA 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+5
16.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
50
0
16.0%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
50
+4
16.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 4 yds to the ULM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
16.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the ULM 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+8
16.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 8 yds to the ULM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
16.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the ULM 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-5
16.0%
South Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ULM 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+30
16.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 30 yds to the ULM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
16.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2INT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:4417% → 17%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
17.0%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for 6 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
17.4%
Jiya Wright pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:4483% → 84%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
16.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 7 yds to the ULM 38Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+9
16.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 9 yds to the ULM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
16.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 14 yds to the ULM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
16.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the ULM 13Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+8
16.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 8 yds to the ULM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
16.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the ULM 2Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
16.9%
La'Damian Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 3Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
15.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Brandon Crum for 3 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5016% → 16%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
16.4%
Hunter Smith run for 2 yds to the ULM 23Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
16.4%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
16.3%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
16.2%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5FG
18 plays · 38 yds · 6:2984% → 87%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
15.6%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 6 yds to the USA 49Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 4
OWN 49
-10
15.6%
Marco Lee Jr. run for a loss of 10 yards to the USA 39 fumbled, recovered by USA Marco Lee Jr.Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 14
OWN 39
0
15.8%
BRADLEY, Carter pass to the right incomplete intended for IVORY, Javon thrown to the USA30; QB hurried by EVANS, Ja'Terious. PENALTY USA Holding on SMITH, Reggie ULM Pass Interference on VIGERS, Car'lin , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+11
15.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 3
50
+5
15.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 5 yds to the ULM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
15.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Javon Ivory for 10 yds to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
15.6%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
15.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+7
15.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 7 yds to the ULM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
15.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 9 yds to the ULM 15Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 1
OPP 15
0
15.5%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+6
15.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 6 yds to the ULM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
15.1%
South Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ULM 14Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
0
15.2%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the ULM 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
15.2%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
15.3%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
-5
15.7%
South Alabama Penalty, False Start (Carter Bradley) to the ULM 19Similar
Q2 13:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
+37
13.2%
Diego Guajardo 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 0 yds · 3:2020% → 21%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
20.2%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the ULM 28Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
19.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 6 yds to the ULM 34Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
19.6%
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds to the ULM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
20.6%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Isaiah Woullard for 2 yds to the ULM 38Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-3
20.6%
Jiya Wright run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 35Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-5
20.0%
Jiya Wright sacked by Brock Higdon and Trey Kiser for a loss of 5 yards to the ULM 30Similar
Q2 13:55
4TH & 16
OWN 30
-5
20.8%
UL Monroe Penalty, Delay Of Game (Braxton Guilbeau) to the ULM 25Similar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 21
OWN 25
0
20.6%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:3888% → 91%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
11.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the ULM 44Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+44
9.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 44 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8DOWNS
12 plays · 51 yds · 5:029% → 9%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
8.5%
Hunter Smith run for 6 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
8.1%
Jiya Wright run for 6 yds to the ULM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
8.7%
Hunter Smith run for 2 yds to the ULM 39Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+15
8.8%
WRIGHT, Jiya pass deep to the right intercepted by FLETCHER, Ricky at the USA22 intended for MORTIMER, Bugs. Fletcher return for 0 yards to the USA22, End of Play. PENALTY USA Targeting on JORDAN, Jalen enforced 15 yards from the ULM39 to the USA46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
9.1%
Hunter Smith run for 5 yds to the USA 41Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 5
OPP 41
-10
8.6%
UL Monroe Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ULM 49Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+5
8.6%
Jiya Wright run for 5 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+19
8.9%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Hunter Smith for 19 yds to the USA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
9.3%
Hunter Smith run for 2 yds to the USA 25Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+2
9.3%
Hunter Smith run for 2 yds to the USA 23Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 6
OPP 23
-1
9.0%
Jiya Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 24Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 7
OPP 24
0
9.3%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 3:3292% → 97%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
7.8%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 3 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+1
7.7%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 1 yd to the USA 28Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+50
8.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 50 yds to the ULM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
7.4%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 6 yds to the ULM 16Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+6
7.4%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 6 yds to the ULM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
7.4%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
3.4%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 1:232% → 10%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
2.3%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for 18 yds to the ULM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
2.3%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
2.2%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+11
2.2%
Jiya Wright run for 11 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
2.4%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
1.5%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for 5 yds to the USA 41Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+12
1.4%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 12 yds to the USA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
1.7%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
1.5%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 9 yds to the USA 20Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+6
1.3%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 6 yds to the USA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
10.1%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 14 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:358% → 8%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
8.2%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
8.1%
Isaiah Woullard run for 1 yd to the ULM 28Similar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+2
8.1%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Isaiah Woullard for 2 yds to the ULM 30Similar
Q3 13:24
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
7.8%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12MISSED FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:5695% → 96%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
5.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 5 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
5.6%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+9
5.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 9 yds to the ULM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
5.4%
South Alabama Penalty, False Start (Reed Buys) to the USA 47Similar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+22
5.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 22 yds to the ULM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
5.4%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the ULM 30Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
5.4%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the ULM 30Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+5
5.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 5 yds to the ULM 25Similar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
4.0%
Diego Guajardo 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:514% → 4%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
4.4%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 6 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
4.5%
Jiya Wright run for 2 yds to the ULM 33Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
4.5%
Jiya Wright run for a loss of 5 yards to the ULM 28Similar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
3.9%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:5197% → 99%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
3.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
3.1%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+12
3.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 12 yds to the ULM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
3.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 12 yds to the ULM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
3.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 11 yds to the ULM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
2.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 6 yds to the ULM 15Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+14
2.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 14 yds to the ULM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:131% → 0%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.5%
Thad Franklin Jr. run for 4 yds to the ULM 29Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
0.5%
Jiya Wright run for 1 yd to the ULM 30Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
0.4%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
0.4%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:1099% → 100%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
0.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 11 yds to the USA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
0.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+10
0.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 10 yds to the ULM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
0.8%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+15
0.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 15 yds to the ULM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
0.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 30 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17INT
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:350% → 0%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
0.3%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+8
0.2%
Bennett Galloway run for 8 yds to the ULM 15Similar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+7
0.2%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Bennett Galloway for 7 yds to the ULM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
0.3%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
0.2%
Bennett Galloway run for 6 yds to the ULM 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+9
0.2%
WRIGHT, Jiya pass short to the left incomplete intended for TOLBERT, Bud thrown to the ULM32. PENALTY USA Pass Interference on ROBINSON, Marquise enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the ULM37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
0.2%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Bud Tolbert for 6 yds to the ULM 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
0.2%
Thad Franklin Jr. run for 3 yds to the ULM 46Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
0.2%
Jiya Wright pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18FG
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:11100% → 100%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
0.4%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 13 yds to the ULM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
0.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 9 yds to the ULM 37Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+5
0.4%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 5 yds to the ULM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
0.4%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 9 yds to the ULM 23Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 1
OPP 23
0
0.4%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
0.4%
Marco Lee Jr. run for no gain to the ULM 23Similar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 1
OPP 23
-5
0.5%
South Alabama Penalty, False Start (Jalen Jordan) to the ULM 28Similar
Q4 10:33
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
0.3%
Diego Guajardo 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:120% → 0%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
0.1%
Bennett Galloway run for 1 yd to the ULM 31Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
0.1%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+5
0.1%
WRIGHT, Jiya pass short to the left incomplete intended for GALLOWAY, Bennett broken up by GAMBLE, Dallas at the ULM34. PENALTY USA Offsides enforced 5 yards from the ULM31 to the ULM36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+44
0.1%
Jiya Wright run for 44 yds to the USA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
0.1%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
0.1%
Charlie Norman run for 2 yds to the USA 18Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+2
0.1%
Jiya Wright run for 2 yds to the USA 16Similar
Q4 7:16
4TH & 6
OPP 16
-4
0.1%
Jiya Wright sacked by Lamondre Brooks for a loss of 4 yards to the USA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:56100% → 100%
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
0.2%
PJ Martin run for 5 yds to the USA 25Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
0.2%
Gio Lopez run for 7 yds to the USA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
0.2%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+13
0.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Keyshawn Woodyard for 13 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
0.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jacob Hopper for 14 yds to the ULM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
0.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Keyshawn Woodyard for 21 yds to the ULM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
0.2%
MARTIN, PJ rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the ULM17 (BAKHOLE, Joseph;RANDLE, Travor). PENALTY USA Holding on ROBINSON, James enforced 10 yards from the ULM20 to the ULM30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+18
0.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to PJ Martin for 18 yds to the ULM 12Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 2
OPP 12
0
0.2%
PJ Martin run for no gain to the ULM 12Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+6
0.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Todd Justice for 6 yds to the ULM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
0.1%
PJ Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 8Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
0.1%
PJ Martin run for 5 yds to the ULM 3Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
0.2%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.1%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 3 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
0.0%
Bennett Galloway run for 24 yds to the ULM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
0.0%
Bennett Galloway run for 3 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
0.0%
Bennett Galloway run for 3 yds to the USA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:00
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 14 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q2 1:23
Marco Lee Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
-3.9
TD · Q2 9:57
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 44 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
-2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com