2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreTXST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:24 · TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 2 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:56: Zeon Chriss pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 34 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +8.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- FG · Q3 6:59: Mason Shipley 33 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +7.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:45: Zylan Perry run for 6 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +18.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:14: TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 18 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +21.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:04: Zeon Chriss run for 9 yds to the TXST 5 for a 1ST down — UL win probability +28.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 7:37TXST 4th & 4 at UL 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call44.3%48% to convertField goal44.2%−0.160% to makePunt43.3%−1.0average punt
- Q1 4:21TXST 4th & 7 at UL 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.3% before the snapGo for it44.1%−0.235% to convertField goalTheir call44.3%75% to makePunt42.6%−1.6average punt
- Q1 2:12UL 4th & 26 at UL 15, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snapGo for it52.4%−1.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.8%average punt
- Q2 14:24TXST 4th & 2 at UL 2, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.8%48% to convertField goal46.0%−0.794% to makePunt43.0%−3.8average punt
- Q2 6:46TXST 4th & 7 at UL 7, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.6% before the snapGo for it57.0%−0.228% to convertField goalTheir call57.2%91% to makePunt54.1%−3.1average punt
- Q2 1:35TXST 4th & 1 at UL 29, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call58.7%71% to convertField goal57.3%−1.458% to makePunt53.2%−5.5average punt
- Q2 0:11TXST 4th & 3 at UL 18, up 6Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 58.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call57.2%−1.151% to convertField goal58.3%79% to makePunt53.8%−4.5average punt
- Q3 12:51UL 4th & 8 at TXST 39, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.6%34% to convertField goal44.9%−0.836% to makePunt44.9%−0.7average punt
- Q3 6:59TXST 4th & 4 at UL 16, up 6Close callKicked a field goal · 62.8% before the snapGo for it62.0%46% to convertField goalTheir call61.8%−0.281% to makePunt52.1%−9.9average punt
- Q4 14:43UL 4th & 8 at UL 24, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snapGo for it45.6%−3.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.0%average punt
- Q4 4:33TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 35, down 5Close callPunted · 23.5% before the snapGo for it18.3%29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.7%−0.6average punt
- Q4 1:50TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 30, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.2%−10.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 12:10TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.8%97% to makeGo for two44.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:43UL Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.1%97% to makeGo for two56.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:24TXST Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.1%97% to makeGo for two52.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:56UL Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.8%97% to makeGo for two44.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:45UL Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.6%97% to makeGo for two47.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 10:14TXST Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.4%97% to makeGo for two80.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTXSTDrive 1TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5043% → 44%
ULDrive 2TD11 plays · 70 yds · 4:2757% → 59%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
56.6%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Robert Williams for 23 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
56.9%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Robert Williams for 3 yds to the TXST 40Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
58.9%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Dre'lyn Washington for 4 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3FG14 plays · 60 yds · 3:1642% → 43%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
57.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 10 yds to the TXST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
57.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+5
57.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Titus Lyons for 5 yds to the UL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -16 yds · 2:0457% → 56%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-21
56.7%
Zeon Chriss sacked by Sam Latham for a loss of 21 yards to the UL 10 Zeon Chriss fumbled, recovered by UL Jax Harrington , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 26
OWN 15
0
55.5%
Thomas Leo punt for 44 yds for a 1ST down , Joey Hobert returns for no gain to the UL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD10 plays · 48 yds · 2:4845% → 51%
Q1 2:12
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+10
55.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 10 yds to the UL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+15
54.7%
Louisiana Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Tyler Guidry) to the UL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
54.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 12 yds to the UL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 2 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6FUMBLE6 plays · 89 yds · 2:2849% → 50%
TXSTDrive 7FG9 plays · 92 yds · 5:0351% → 58%
ULDrive 8TD7 plays · 67 yds · 2:4342% → 52%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
43.4%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 2 yds to the TXST 37Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+3
43.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Tavion Smith for 3 yds to the TXST 34Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+34
51.9%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 34 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9DOWNS16 plays · 52 yds · 3:3954% → 60%
Q2 3:50
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+15
45.9%
Louisiana Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Tyrone Lewis Jr.) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11FUMBLE6 plays · 40 yds · 2:0250% → 46%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
50.0%
No Huddle Kibodi,Jacob rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TXST35 (Holton,Shawn; Bell,Ben) PENALTY LA Holding (Harrington,Jax) 10 yards from TXST41 to LA49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 8
OPP 39
+9
46.4%
Zeon Chriss run for 9 yds to the TXST 30 Zeon Chriss fumbled, recovered by TXST Tavian ColemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12FG13 plays · 54 yds · 5:5258% → 67%
ULDrive 13TD8 plays · 82 yds · 3:0634% → 58%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+32
36.0%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Neal Johnson for 32 yds to the TXST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14INT7 plays · 63 yds · 2:4952% → 60%
ULDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0750% → 47%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+1
48.5%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Robert Williams for 1 yd to the UL 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16TD10 plays · 69 yds · 4:2955% → 82%
ULDrive 17TD11 plays · 63 yds · 0:0022% → 55%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
21.5%
Zeon Chriss run for 4 yds to the UL 33 Zeon Chriss fumbled, recovered by UL Zeon ChrissSimilar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 14
OWN 33
-6
19.9%
Zeon Chriss sacked by Chance Main for a loss of 6 yards to the UL 27Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 20
OWN 27
+21
18.7%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 21 yds to the UL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
23.1%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Neal Johnson for 5 yds to the TXST 47Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+14
23.9%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 14 yds to the TXST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 1:1726% → 23%
Q4 4:33
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+8
76.6%
punt blocked by Dalen Cambre blocked by Dalen Cambre , Patrick Mensah returns for 8 yds to the TXST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD4 plays · 22 yds · 2:1288% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20FUMBLE8 plays · 23 yds · 0:5722% → 15%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
78.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Jr. Sean Shaw for 7 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+2
74.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 2 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+12
85.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 12 yds Ashtyn Hawkins fumbled, recovered by UL Tyree SkipperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:04
Zeon Chriss run for 9 yds to the TXST 5 for a 1ST down
+28.5
TD · Q4 10:14
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 18 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
-21.8
TD · Q3 3:45
Zylan Perry run for 6 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
+18.3