Try the model
TXST

Texas State 50 at Southern Miss 36

USM
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:34 · Bryce Lofton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Home team on offense−2.2Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−0.5Pregame prior−12.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:39: TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 5 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +10.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:13: Frank Gore Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick) — USM win probability +15.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:40: Ismail Mahdi run for 23 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +10.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:52: Billy Wiles 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — USM win probability +12.7 pts (now 18%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:16: Frank Gore Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick) — USM win probability +14.8 pts (now 23%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:34USM 4th & 13 at USM 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:16USM 4th & 7 at TXST 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:18TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 13, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:18USM 4th & 16 at USM 42, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−2.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:31USM 4th & 9 at USM 26, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:55USM 4th & 13 at TXST 31, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:51TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 47, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:38USM 4th & 1 at TXST 9, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−1.0
    89% to make
    Punt
    -2.1%−3.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00USM 4th & 2 at USM 47, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:20TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 34, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:23TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 44, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:07USM 4th & 17 at USM 18, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.4%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:18USM 4th & 9 at TXST 34, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:48TXST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:57TXST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:39TXST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:13USM Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:40TXST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:22TXST Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:28USM Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    5.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:31USM Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.0%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:52USM Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    10.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.3%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:16USM Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.9%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:39TXST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    95.6%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
36.6%
Billy Wiles pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2TD
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:4663% → 64%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
36.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 6 yds to the USM 15Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+3
36.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the USM 12Similar
Q1 14:34
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+2
36.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the USM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
36.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the USM 8Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
36.6%
Malik Hornsby run for 3 yds to the USM 5Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
35.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 5 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0936% → 35%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
35.8%
Texas State Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
35.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 37Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+4
35.8%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 4 yds to the USM 41Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-8
35.9%
Billy Wiles sacked by Tavian Coleman and Sam Latham for a loss of 8 yards to the USM 33Similar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
35.0%
Bryce Lofton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:3765% → 72%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
34.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 11 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
34.8%
Donerio Davenport run for a loss of 3 yards to the TXST 34Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+25
35.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 25 yds Joey Hobert fumbled, recovered by TXST for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+22
34.7%
Donerio Davenport run for 22 yds to the USM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
34.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 9 yds to the USM 10Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+7
34.7%
Donerio Davenport run for 7 yds to the USM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
28.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 5:3530% → 29%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
29.6%
(06:51) GORE, Frank rush up the middle for no gain to the USM21 (FOSTER, JR., Dan;MAIN, Chance). PENALTY TXS Offsides on WRIGHT, Deven enforced 5 yards from the USM21 to the USM26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 5
OWN 26
+13
29.9%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 13 yds to the USM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
30.0%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tyquan Henderson for 13 yds to the TXST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
30.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 12
50
+9
30.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 9 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 3
OPP 41
-5
30.3%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TXST 46Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+22
30.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 22 yds to the TXST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
30.6%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 7 yds to the TXST 17Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+1
27.5%
Billy Wiles run for 1 yd to the TXST 16Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 2
OPP 16
0
27.3%
run for no gain to the TXST 16Similar
Q1 1:20
4TH & 2
OPP 16
-5
26.7%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TXST 21Similar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
28.6%
Andrew Stein 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3774% → 86%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
25.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 39 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+31
25.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 31 yds to the USM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
14.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 5 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2618% → 28%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.9%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 3 yds to the USM 28Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
17.1%
Billy Wiles run for 6 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
17.6%
run for 3 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
15.0%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
14.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the USM 39Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
14.6%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+15
13.9%
(13:21) LOFTON, Bryce punt 30 yards to the TXS31, fair catch by HOBERT, Joey. PENALTY TXS Roughing the Kicker on MOURNING, JR., Derick enforced 15 yards from the USM39 to the TXS46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+43
12.5%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 43 yds to the TXST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
11.8%
run for 2 yds to the TXST 1Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.5%
Frank Gore Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5077% → 75%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
22.8%
Donerio Davenport run for no gain to the TXST 9Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
22.8%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 10
OWN 9
-15
22.5%
(11:39) FINLEY, TJ pass to the left complete for 15 yards to HAWKINS, Ashtyn caught at the TXS23 and advanced to the TXS24 (LAWRENCE, Dylan). PENALTY TXS Holding on SCOTT, Trenton enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the TXS9 to the TXS5 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 14
OWN 5
+8
21.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 8 yds to the TXST 13Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
21.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 48Similar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
25.5%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USM 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:0025% → 24%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 15
OWN 43
-1
24.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 42Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 16
OWN 42
0
24.7%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 16
OWN 42
0
24.1%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 16
OWN 42
0
23.9%
Bryce Lofton punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10TD
4 plays · 84 yds · 1:2880% → 91%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
20.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Titus Lyons for 7 yds to the TXST 23Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+11
20.1%
TJ Finley run for 11 yds to the TXST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+43
20.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 43 yds to the USM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
9.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 23 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:098% → 8%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.4%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
8.2%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USM 20Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
8.5%
Billy Wiles run for 6 yds to the USM 26Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
8.3%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for no gain to the USM 26Similar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
7.5%
Bryce Lofton punt for 38 yds, downed at the TXST 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 3:0991% → 94%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
8.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 10 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
8.9%
Donerio Davenport run for 15 yds to the USM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+10
7.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 10 yds to the USM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
7.1%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
8.8%
Donerio Davenport run for 15 yds to the USM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
8.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 6 yds to the USM 18Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
6.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 8 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13DOWNS
12 plays · 44 yds · 2:275% → 3%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
5.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
5.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 25 yds to the TXST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
5.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 9 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
4.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the TXST 30Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
3.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the TXST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
4.0%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
3.5%
Holman Edwards pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+2
3.4%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the TXST 26Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 8
OPP 26
-5
3.2%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TXST 31Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 13
OPP 31
0
3.0%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14FUMBLE
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:2496% → 96%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
4.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Jr. Sean Shaw for 10 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
4.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 10 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
4.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 11 yds to the USM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
4.0%
TJ Finley sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the USM 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15MISSED FG
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:263% → 3%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
2.9%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
2.7%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+14
2.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 14 yds to the TXST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
2.7%
Texas State Penalty, Roughing the Passer on BELL, Ben enforced (Ben Bell) to the TXST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+44
2.7%
Andrew Stein 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 2:245% → 4%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
4.7%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 13 yds to the TXST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
5.1%
Chandler Pittman run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 45Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+31
4.9%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 31 yds to the TXST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
5.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the TXST 11Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
4.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 11 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:3795% → 96%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
4.8%
Donerio Davenport run for 6 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
4.7%
Donerio Davenport run for 5 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
4.6%
Donerio Davenport run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 6
50
-1
4.6%
Donerio Davenport run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 49Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-2
4.6%
TJ Finley sacked by Swayze Bozeman and Brodarius Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 47Similar
Q3 9:51
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
3.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 40 yds, downed at the USM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18DOWNS
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:132% → 2%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
2.4%
Billy Wiles run for 9 yds to the USM 22Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 1
OWN 22
0
2.4%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+29
2.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 29 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
2.4%
Billy Wiles run for 1 yd to the TXST 48Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+7
2.3%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 7 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+7
2.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the TXST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
2.6%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tyquan Henderson for 9 yds to the TXST 25Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
2.6%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+7
2.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the TXST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
2.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the TXST 14Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
2.0%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 6
OPP 14
-5
1.8%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (John Bolding) to the TXST 19Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+10
1.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 10 yds to the TXST 9Similar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 1
OPP 9
-4
1.7%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the TXST 13 Frank Gore Jr. fumbled, recovered by TXST Kaleb CulpSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 87 yds · 1:1698% → 98%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
1.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 15Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 8
OWN 15
-5
1.8%
TJ Finley sacked by Quentin Bivens and Hayes Maples for a loss of 5 yards to the TXST 10Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+90
1.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 90 yds Ismail Mahdi fumbled, recovered by USMSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:511% → 6%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
1.2%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 18Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
1.2%
Texas State Penalty, Face mask Roughing the Passer on CAGE, Bryce enforced (John Blunt Jr.) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
1.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 40Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+2
1.2%
Billy Wiles run for 2 yds to the USM 42Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+5
1.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the USM 47Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+23
1.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for 23 yds to the TXST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
0.8%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 18 yds to the TXST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
0.8%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 2 yds to the TXST 10Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+2
0.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the TXST 8Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
6.0%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 8 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+21
3.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 21 yds to the TXST 33 Ismail Mahdi fumbled, recovered by USM Markel McLaurinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 1:236% → 18%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
6.0%
Texas State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chris Mills) to the TXST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
5.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 17 yds to the TXST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
5.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 3 yards to the TXST 4Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
18.2%
Billy Wiles 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:2792% → 93%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
8.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 6 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+5
7.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the TXST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
7.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 35Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
7.4%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-1
6.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 34Similar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
6.7%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 2:046% → 23%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+40
5.8%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 40 yds to the TXST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+29
8.4%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 29 yds to the TXST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
8.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the TXST 2Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
8.5%
run for 1 yd to the TXST 1Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.3%
Frank Gore Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5382% → 88%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
17.6%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
18.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 14 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
15.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+1
15.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 44Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
15.3%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
12.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:0520% → 18%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
19.5%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+13
19.0%
Frank Gore Jr. pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 13 yds to the USM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
19.8%
Frank Gore Jr. sacked by Ben Bell for a loss of 7 yards to the USM 18Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
19.9%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
18.6%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
17.8%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27TD
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:1894% → 99%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
5.7%
Donerio Davenport run for 3 yds to the USM 15Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+1
5.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the USM 14Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+14
1.2%
Malik Hornsby 14 Yd Run (Kole Wilson Pass to Drew Donley for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 22 yds · 1:141% → 1%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
1.3%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
1.3%
Frank Gore Jr. pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 5 yds to the USM 49Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+16
1.3%
Billy Wiles run for 16 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
1.5%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
1.5%
run for 1 yd to the TXST 34Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
1.2%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:18
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
1.2%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
1.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by TXS at TXS32 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:13
Frank Gore Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick)
+15.7
TD · Q4 6:16
Frank Gore Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick)
+14.8
TD · Q4 10:52
Billy Wiles 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+12.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com