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APP

App State 41 at UL Monroe 40

ULM
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of GameTD+19.8ULM 60.9%Tyrone Howell 8 Yd pass from JiyaWright (Two-Point Pass ConversionFailed)AWAY 35 - HOME 40 · Q3 1:39
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:39 · Tyrone Howell 8 Yd pass from Jiya Wright (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Pregame prior−12.4Home team on offense+10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Garbage-time factor+2.0Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:17: Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 3 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK) — ULM win probability +9.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:14: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 22 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +10.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:24: Jiya Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (Derek McCormick PAT BLOCKED) — ULM win probability +12.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 1:39: Tyrone Howell 8 Yd pass from Jiya Wright (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — ULM win probability +19.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Michael Hughes 54 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +70.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:53ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:53ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:53APP 4th & 1 at APP 31, down 7
    Close callPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:03ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:06APP 4th & 7 at APP 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:52ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00APP 4th & 3 at ULM 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    65.5%−1.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    65.8%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:24ULM 4th & 1 at APP 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    22.2%−4.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−14.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:50ULM 4th & 1 at APP 22, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.5%−3.5
    72% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−13.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:15APP 4th & 22 at ULM 47, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−6.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:51ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 25, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−1.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:58APP 4th & 8 at ULM 11, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−2.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−16.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:12ULM 4th & 1 at APP 1, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    55.1%−10.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−35.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:26APP 4th & 9 at ULM 48, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.3%−3.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:02ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 47, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:03ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:10ULM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:40APP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 5:35APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:59APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:15ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 3:14APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 1:17ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 12:14APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 8:24ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 1:39ULM Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    59.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0714% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
14.2%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 4 yds to the ULM 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
14.2%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
14.2%
Jiya Wright sacked by Shawn Collins for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 28Similar
Q1 13:53
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
14.6%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 23Similar
Q1 13:53
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
14.6%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 47 yds · 1:2985% → 85%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
14.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 21 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
14.6%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the APP 46Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+13
14.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 13 yds to the ULM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
15.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 11 yds Kaedin Robinson fumbled, recovered by ULM AJ WattsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:2115% → 17%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
15.4%
Hunter Smith run for 2 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
15.4%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+45
15.3%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 45 yds to the APP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
15.6%
Jiya Wright run for 1 yd to the APP 22Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+22
17.2%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 22 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0483% → 82%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
16.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
16.9%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the APP 23Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+8
17.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 8 yds to the APP 31Similar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
17.6%
Mitchell Lake punt for 39 yds, downed at the ULM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:4318% → 24%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
17.7%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Alred Luke for 8 yds to the ULM 38Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+8
18.0%
WRIGHT, Jiya pass up the middle incomplete intended for WILEY, Dariyan thrown to the ULM48. PENALTY APP Pass Interference on FUNDERBURK, Tyrek enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the ULM46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
18.0%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 10 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
18.0%
Jiya Wright run for 15 yds to the APP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
18.1%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 7 yds to the APP 22Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
18.1%
Jiya Wright run for no gain to the APP 22Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+10
17.9%
Jiya Wright pass complete to NyNy Davis for 10 yds to the APP 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
18.1%
Appalachian State Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the APP 7Similar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 5
OPP 7
+7
24.2%
Isaiah Woullard run for 7 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:2477% → 79%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
22.9%
UL Monroe Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Carl Glass Jr.) to the APP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
20.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 52 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-23
18.9%
Tyrek Funderburk 23 Yd Interception Return (Michael Hughes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0519% → 19%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
19.1%
Hunter Smith run for 1 yd to the ULM 14Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+4
19.1%
Hunter Smith run for 4 yds to the ULM 18Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
18.8%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
19.2%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:5781% → 80%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
19.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 14 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
18.8%
Joey Aguilar run for 3 yds to the APP 47Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
18.8%
Kanye Roberts run for no gain to the APP 47Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
19.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
20.2%
Mitchell Lake punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bugs Mortimer at the ULM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1421% → 21%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
21.1%
Jiya Wright run for 2 yds to the ULM 20Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+1
21.0%
Jiya Wright run for 1 yd to the ULM 21Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
20.6%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:52
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
21.0%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 4:5380% → 83%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
20.5%
Ahmani Marshall run for 11 yds to the APP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
20.4%
Ahmani Marshall run for 9 yds to the ULM 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+10
20.0%
Joey Aguilar run for 10 yds to the ULM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
19.8%
Ahmani Marshall run for 4 yds to the ULM 29Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+4
20.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to David Larkins for 4 yds to the ULM 25Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+6
20.6%
Ahmani Marshall run for 6 yds to the ULM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
20.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 15 yds to the ULM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
20.4%
Joey Aguilar run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 6Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
20.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
17.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4419% → 30%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.1%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
19.0%
WRIGHT, Jiya pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HOWELL, Tyrone thrown to the ULM42. PENALTY APP Offsides on COLLINS, Shawn enforced 5 yards from the ULM25 to the ULM30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
19.2%
Jiya Wright pass complete to NyNy Davis for 7 yds to the ULM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
19.4%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 20 yds to the APP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
20.4%
Thad Franklin Jr. run for 7 yds to the APP 36Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+23
20.4%
Thad Franklin Jr. run for 23 yds to the APP 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
21.0%
Thad Franklin Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 14Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+14
29.8%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 14 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0175% → 80%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.7%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the APP 27Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
24.6%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the APP 27Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+17
25.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 17 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
23.5%
Nate Noel run for 8 yds to the ULM 48Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
22.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+10
23.7%
Nate Noel run for 10 yds to the ULM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
23.0%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the ULM 38Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
23.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+10
23.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 10 yds to the ULM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
22.3%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the ULM 24Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+4
22.3%
UL Monroe Penalty, Face mask (4 yards) (Joseph Bakhole) to the ULM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
20.1%
Kanye Roberts run for 10 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 1:4924% → 37%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
24.3%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the ULM 29Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+20
24.3%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 20 yds to the ULM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+45
25.9%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 45 yds to the APP 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
26.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the APP 3Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
36.6%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 3 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15INT
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:5169% → 71%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
31.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 16 yds to the APP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
29.1%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the ULM 47Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
28.7%
Joey Aguilar pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
34.0%
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds to the ULM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4670% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
29.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 6 yds to the APP 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
28.7%
UL Monroe Penalty, Block below the waist enforced (15 Yards) to the ULM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
27.2%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the ULM 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+7
27.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 7 yds to the ULM 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
-1
27.2%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 37Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+15
28.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Nate Noel for 15 yds to the ULM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
18.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 22 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 3:4520% → 36%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
20.3%
Jiya Wright run for 11 yds to the ULM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+36
20.5%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Alred Luke for 36 yds to the APP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+32
23.5%
Isaiah Woullard run for 32 yds to the APP 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
24.5%
Jiya Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 9Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
24.5%
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds to the APP 7Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
23.2%
Jiya Wright run for 6 yds to the APP 1Similar
Q3 8:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.5%
Jiya Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (Derek McCormick PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:3468% → 70%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
31.7%
Kanye Roberts run for a loss of 3 yards to the APP 22Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
32.6%
Kanye Roberts run for 2 yds to the APP 24Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+25
33.5%
Joey Aguilar run for 25 yds to the APP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
28.7%
Kanye Roberts run for no gain to the APP 49Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-3
30.2%
Joey Aguilar sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the APP 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20TD
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:1140% → 61%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
39.8%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+15
39.4%
WRIGHT, Jiya pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HOWELL, Tyrone thrown to the APP14. PENALTY APP Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Ethan enforced 15 yards to the APP31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
41.1%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 32Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+3
40.8%
Hunter Smith run for 3 yds to the APP 29Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+7
39.1%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 7 yds to the APP 22Similar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+2
37.5%
Jiya Wright run for 2 yds to the APP 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
41.1%
Hunter Smith run for 7 yds to the APP 13Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+4
41.1%
Jiya Wright run for 4 yds to the APP 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
41.1%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
41.1%
Hunter Smith run for 1 yd to the APP 8Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
60.9%
Tyrone Howell 8 Yd pass from Jiya Wright (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:2449% → 45%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
50.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Nate Noel for 5 yds to the APP 30Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+35
49.5%
Nate Noel run for 35 yds to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
43.4%
ROBERTS, Kanye rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the ULM30 (BATTON, Michael;GODSEY JR, David). PENALTY APP Holding on HELMS, Isaiah enforced 10 yards from the ULM35 to the ULM45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 20
OPP 45
0
47.3%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+2
49.8%
Kanye Roberts run for 2 yds to the ULM 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 43
-4
51.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Nate Noel for a loss of 4 yards to the ULM 47Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 22
OPP 47
0
55.0%
Mitchell Lake punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2438% → 37%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
38.3%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-7
37.9%
Jiya Wright sacked by Nate Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the ULM 13Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+12
36.6%
Isaiah Woullard run for 12 yds to the ULM 25Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
37.0%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 20 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23FG
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:5351% → 51%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
48.6%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the ULM 40Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+27
47.7%
Nate Noel run for 27 yds to the ULM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
45.8%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the ULM 11Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
45.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
47.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+28
49.2%
Michael Hughes 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:5554% → 61%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
54.3%
Jiya Wright run for 22 yds to the ULM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
60.5%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 3 yds fumbled, forced by Jordan Favors, recovered by APP DeAndre Dingle-Prince , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4053% → 53%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
50
+1
46.9%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the ULM 49Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
47.2%
Joey Aguilar pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
47.2%
Joey Aguilar pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 32 yds · 4:1162% → 66%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
61.5%
Hunter Smith run for 6 yds to the APP 34Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+5
62.0%
Hunter Smith run for 5 yds to the APP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
62.0%
Jiya Wright run for 19 yds to the APP 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
61.9%
Hunter Smith run for 3 yds to the APP 7Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
61.9%
Hunter Smith run for 6 yds to the APP 1Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
68.4%
Thad Franklin Jr. run for no gain to the APP 1Similar
Q4 5:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-7
66.3%
Jiya Wright sacked by Tyrek Funderburk and Nick Ross for a loss of 7 yards to the APP 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 27DOWNS
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:4640% → 36%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
60.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 15 yds to the APP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
59.4%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the APP 23Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+15
59.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 15 yds to the APP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
57.2%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the APP 43Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+8
54.4%
Joey Aguilar run for 8 yds to the ULM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
53.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 5 yds to the ULM 44Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-4
51.9%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the ULM 48 fumbled, recovered by APP Joey AguilarSimilar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
55.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 9
OPP 48
+8
63.6%
Joey Aguilar run for 8 yds to the ULM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:1788% → 87%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
87.5%
Isaiah Woullard run for 5 yds to the ULM 45Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-4
87.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 4 yards to the ULM 41Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+6
87.1%
Jiya Wright run for 6 yds to the ULM 47Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
87.2%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 29FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:0220% → 95%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
80.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 4 yds to the APP 24Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-5
79.5%
Appalachian State Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the APP 19Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
80.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+14
82.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 14 yds to the APP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
79.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 16 yds to the APP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
75.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 14 yds to the ULM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+54
5.1%
Michael Hughes 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Michael Hughes 54 yd FG GOOD
-70.4
TD · Q3 1:39
Tyrone Howell 8 Yd pass from Jiya Wright (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+19.8
TD · Q3 8:24
Jiya Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (Derek McCormick PAT BLOCKED)
+12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com