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USA

South Alabama 23 at James Madison 31

JMU
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Bridgeforth Stadium
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Win probability · JMU
modelJMU aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playJMU scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 6:10: Camden Wise 31 yd FG GOOD — JMU win probability +8.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:37: Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 48 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +12.4 pts (now 41%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:49: Jalen Green 24 Yd Interception Return (Camden Wise Kick) — JMU win probability +12.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:19: Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 3 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo PAT MISSED) — USA win probability +5.4 pts (now 8%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:56: La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +9.6 pts (now 11%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
JMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10USA made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 13:11USA 4th & 5 at USA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:54USA 4th & 15 at USA 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:48JMU 4th & 20 at JMU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:15USA 4th & 2 at USA 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:20USA 4th & 13 at USA 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:50JMU 4th & 1 at USA 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    66.8%−1.7
    90% to make
    Punt
    62.3%−6.2
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:50USA 4th & 8 at USA 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:01JMU 4th & 6 at USA 44, up 14
    Close callPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−1.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:06USA 4th & 10 at USA 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:10JMU 4th & 5 at USA 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−6.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:37JMU 4th & 5 at JMU 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:20USA 4th & 6 at USA 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:00JMU 4th & 5 at JMU 46, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.5%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:41JMU 4th & 7 at JMU 34, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:36USA 4th & 9 at USA 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:58JMU 4th & 9 at JMU 38, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:21USA 4th & 8 at JMU 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−6.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:21USA 4th & 4 at JMU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−0.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−5.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:32USA 4th & 7 at JMU 49, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:44JMU 4th & 12 at midfield, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:16JMU 4th & 10 at JMU 25, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:02USA 4th & 26 at USA 34, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 12:49JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:04JMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:37USA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:49JMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:32JMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:19USA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    4.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:56USA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.4%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4959% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
41.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-4
41.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 4 yards to the USA 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+8
41.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 8 yds to the USA 30Similar
Q1 13:11
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
42.2%
Jack Martin punt for 33 yds, downed at the USA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 48 yds · 0:2242% → 43%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
42.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
42.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+48
43.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 48 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:5557% → 56%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.0%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
43.0%
South Alabama Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Carter Bradley) to the USA 17Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+3
43.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the USA 20Similar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
43.8%
Jack Martin punt for 39 yds, downed at the JMU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 2:0644% → 45%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
43.9%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the JMU 43Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-5
43.9%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (Cole Potts) to the JMU 38Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 13
OWN 38
-10
43.8%
MCCLOUD, Jordan pass short to the right incomplete intended for BROWN, Reggie thrown to the JMU40. PENALTY JMU Holding on WYATT, Tyshawn enforced 10 yards from the JMU38 to the JMU28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 23
OWN 28
-1
43.7%
Kaelon Black run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 27Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 24
OWN 27
+4
43.5%
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the JMU 31Similar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 20
OWN 31
0
44.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:3355% → 54%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
44.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 13 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
44.8%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
44.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 9 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-1
44.6%
La'Damian Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 44Similar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
46.1%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 6TD
1 play · 44 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
50.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 44 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4451% → 49%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.0%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the USA 25Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
49.0%
South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Caullin Lacy) to the USA 21Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+1
49.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Javon Ivory for 1 yd to the USA 22Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
49.2%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
51.3%
Jack Martin punt for 42 yds, downed at the JMU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:3052% → 56%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
52.2%
Jordan McCloud run for 2 yds to the JMU 38Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+8
52.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for 8 yds to the JMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
52.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 6
50
+33
52.6%
Jordan McCloud run for 33 yds to the USA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
52.7%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
52.7%
Jordan McCloud run for 4 yds to the USA 13Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+5
52.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds to the USA 8Similar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 1
OPP 8
-2
55.9%
Kaelon Black run for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0045% → 43%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
54.8%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+15
54.9%
BRADLEY, Carter pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for LACY, Caullin thrown to the USA45; QB hurried by GREEN, Jalen. PENALTY JMU Pass Interference on CHUKWUNEKE, Chris enforced 15 yards to the USA25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Javon Ivory for 3 yds to the USA 28Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-6
54.6%
Carter Bradley sacked by Mikail Kamara for a loss of 6 yards to the USA 22Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+5
55.1%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 5 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
56.6%
Jack Martin punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:4958% → 61%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
58.3%
Ty Son Lawton run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 35Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+8
58.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 8 yds to the JMU 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+15
59.3%
South Alabama Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the USA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
60.0%
Jordan McCloud run for 9 yds to the USA 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 39
0
60.0%
Ty Son Lawton run for no gain to the USA 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-5
59.5%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (Tyler Stephens) to the USA 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
59.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
61.0%
Ryan Hanson punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:5541% → 38%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
59.1%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
59.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 3 yds to the USA 23Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+14
59.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 14 yds to the USA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
58.8%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
58.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 5 yds to the USA 42Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+5
58.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Javon Ivory for 5 yds to the USA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
58.3%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
58.6%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
58.8%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
62.2%
Jack Martin punt for 36 yds, downed at the JMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 12FG
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:5664% → 74%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
64.4%
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the JMU 21Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+19
64.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 19 yds to the JMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
65.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 16 yds to the USA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
65.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 6 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+20
65.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 20 yds to the USA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
65.7%
Latrele Palmer run for no gain to the USA 18Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
65.7%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the USA 16Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+3
65.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 3 yds to the USA 13Similar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+31
73.6%
Camden Wise 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:2929% → 41%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
71.0%
James Madison Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamree Kromah) to the JMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
58.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 48 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0061% → 58%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
61.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 6 yds to the JMU 31Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
60.2%
Ty Son Lawton run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 30Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
58.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
58.0%
Ryan Hanson punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15INT TD
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:4840% → 27%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
60.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 5 yards to the USA 26Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 15
OWN 26
0
61.2%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 15
OWN 26
-24
73.5%
Jalen Green 24 Yd Interception Return (Camden Wise Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2927% → 25%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the USA 28Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
72.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the USA 29Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
72.5%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
75.4%
Jack Martin punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:2077% → 77%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
76.7%
Kaelon Black run for 9 yds to the JMU 39Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
77.5%
Kaelon Black run for no gain to the JMU 39Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
76.7%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the JMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
77.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
77.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds to the JMU 46Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
78.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OWN 46
-5
77.4%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the JMU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:1479% → 82%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
78.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
78.8%
Kaelon Black run for no gain to the JMU 21Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+10
77.9%
MCCLOUD, Jordan pass to the right incomplete thrown to the JMU35. PENALTY USA Holding on BANKS, Yam enforced 10 yards from the JMU21 to the JMU31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
78.9%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Charles Coleman III and Wy'Kevious Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the JMU 27Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 14
OWN 27
0
78.6%
Ty Son Lawton run for no gain to the JMU 27Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+7
77.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 7 yds to the JMU 34Similar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
81.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 3:0518% → 15%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
82.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 14 yds to the USA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
81.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 10 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
81.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the USA 41Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
81.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 1 yd to the USA 42Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-1
81.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Javon Ivory for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 41Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
85.1%
Jack Martin punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:3888% → 90%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
87.9%
Ty Son Lawton run for 4 yds to the JMU 21Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+6
87.9%
Ty Son Lawton run for 6 yds to the JMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
88.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 10 yds to the JMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
88.3%
Ty Son Lawton run for 4 yds to the JMU 41Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-6
88.6%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Jamie Sheriff for a loss of 6 yards to the JMU 35Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+3
87.6%
Latrele Palmer run for 3 yds to the JMU 38Similar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
89.5%
Ryan Hanson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:3711% → 14%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
89.1%
Carter Bradley run for 3 yds to the USA 30Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+16
88.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 16 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
88.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 14 yds to the JMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
88.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the JMU 38Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+1
88.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 1 yd to the JMU 37Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+13
88.7%
Carter Bradley run for 13 yds to the JMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
87.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the JMU 23Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+1
87.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Javon Ivory for 1 yd to the JMU 22Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
88.5%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+40
86.1%
Diego Guajardo 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 22INT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:3691% → 88%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.3%
Kaelon Black run for 9 yds to the JMU 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
91.6%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the JMU 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
91.5%
Kaelon Black run for 7 yds to the JMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
91.7%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the JMU 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
91.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
92.1%
Jordan McCloud pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
50
+15
87.7%
BRADLEY, Carter pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for PRITCHETT, Jamaal thrown to the JMU20. PENALTY JMU Pass Interference on PONDS, D'Angelo enforced 15 yards to the JMU35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:0313% → 11%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
86.8%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
86.7%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+6
87.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 6 yds to the JMU 29Similar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 4
OPP 29
0
88.9%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 24TD
2 plays · 71 yds · 0:4993% → 98%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
92.9%
Ty Son Lawton run for 5 yds to the JMU 34Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+66
98.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 66 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 25TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:132% → 8%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
98.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 12 yds to the USA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.2%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
98.2%
Carter Bradley run for 9 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
98.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the USA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
98.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 5 yds to the JMU 47Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
98.2%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-2
98.2%
Carter Bradley sacked by Jalen Green and Mikail Kamara for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 49Similar
Q4 11:32
4TH & 7
OPP 49
+31
98.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 31 yds to the JMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
97.9%
BRADLEY, Carter pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for IVORY, Javon thrown to the JMU0. PENALTY JMU Pass Interference on AUSTIN, Brent enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the JMU3 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 3 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 26PUNT
10 plays · 10 yds · 2:3396% → 98%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
95.6%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the JMU 42Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+10
95.6%
Kaelon Black run for 10 yds to the USA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
96.7%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-3
97.2%
Jordan McCloud run for a loss of 3 yards to the USA 49Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 11
OPP 49
-1
98.3%
Ty Son Lawton run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:44
4TH & 12
50
0
98.1%
Ryan Hanson punt for 39 yds, downed at the USA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 27TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 1:484% → 11%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
96.3%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+9
96.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 9 yds to the USA 20Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+14
96.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 14 yds to the USA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
98.8%
Carter Bradley sacked by Jalen Green for a loss of 6 yards to the USA 28Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+16
98.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 16 yds to the USA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+55
98.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 55 yds to the JMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:4095% → 94%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.5%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the JMU 28Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
98.0%
Kaelon Black run for no gain to the JMU 28Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
97.9%
BLACK, Kaelon rush to the left for a gain of 39 yards to the USA33 (JORDAN, Jalen). PENALTY JMU Holding on HORTON, Zach enforced 10 yards from the JMU28 to the JMU18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+7
97.9%
Kaelon Black run for 7 yds to the JMU 25Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Ryan Hanson punt for 38 yds, downed at the USA 37Similar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
94.3%
BRADLEY, Carter pass to the right incomplete intended for LACY, Caullin thrown to the USA48. PENALTY JMU Pass Interference on FISHER, Aiden enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the USA50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 29DOWNS
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:147% → 4%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
50
0
93.4%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 10
50
-7
93.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for a loss of 7 yards to the USA 43Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 17
OWN 43
-9
95.1%
Carter Bradley sacked by Jalen Green for a loss of 9 yards to the USA 34Similar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 26
OWN 34
0
95.7%
Carter Bradley pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
50
-2
98.8%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:37
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 48 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q2 3:49
Jalen Green 24 Yd Interception Return (Camden Wise Kick)
+12.3
TD · Q4 3:56
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
-9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com