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NEV

Nevada 24 at Texas State 35

TXST
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:21 · Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the NEV 40 Jahmyl Jeter fumbled, recovered by NEV Drue Watts
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Pregame prior+15.7Home team on offense−11.4Score differential−6.0Garbage-time factor−5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:11: Zac Welch 0 Yd Fumble Return (Brandon Talton Kick) — NEV win probability +4.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:42: TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 77 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +21.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:49: Ismail Mahdi run for 46 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +15.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:30: Ismail Mahdi run for 36 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +17.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:57: AJ Bianco run for 2 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +4.9 pts (now 8%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:27NEV 4th & 3 at TXST 12, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.0%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:06TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:51NEV 4th & 1 at TXST 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    23.0%−1.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:07TXST 4th & 1 at NEV 19, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.3%−1.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−5.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:55NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:03TXST 4th & 6 at NEV 17, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.2%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    55.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00TXST 4th & 2 at NEV 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    46.8%−1.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:45NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:21TXST 4th & 1 at NEV 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    38.7%−5.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−4.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:24NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−2.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:15NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 5:08NEV Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:11NEV Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:43TXST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:42TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:49TXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:30TXST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:50TXST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:57NEV Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1FG
16 plays · 63 yds · 5:3311% → 13%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
88.8%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Tavian Coleman for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
88.8%
Brendon Lewis run for 9 yds to the NEV 33Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
88.5%
Sean Dollars run for 6 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
88.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to John Jackson IIISimilar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
88.5%
Ashton Hayes run for no gain to the NEV 39Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+12
88.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Keleki Latu for 12 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
88.5%
Ashton Hayes run for 11 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
88.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 5 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+14
88.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 14 yds to the TXST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
88.5%
Ashton Hayes run for 7 yds to the TXST 12Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 3
OPP 12
0
87.4%
Ashton Hayes run for no gain to the TXST 12Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 3
OPP 12
0
87.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q1 9:27
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+30
87.2%
Brandon Talton 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2INT TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:1187% → 84%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
86.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 11 yds to the TXST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
86.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 25Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+9
86.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 9 yds to the TXST 34Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+17
87.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 17 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
87.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 18 yds to the NEV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
87.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Drew Donley for 5 yds to the NEV 26Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
87.3%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Drew DonleySimilar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+6
87.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 6 yds to the NEV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
87.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 7 yds to the NEV 13Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 3
OPP 13
-98
83.7%
KK Meier 98 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Talton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5583% → 80%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+3
82.8%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Drew Donley for 3 yds to the TXST 19Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 21
OWN 10
+11
82.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 11 yds to the TXST 21Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+6
82.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 6 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
80.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 51 yds , Carlos Sandy returns for no gain to the NEV 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4FUMBLE RETURN TD
16 plays · 78 yds · 6:5518% → 28%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
81.6%
Ashton Hayes run for 1 yd to the NEV 23Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+3
81.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 3 yds to the NEV 26Similar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
79.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to for 4 yds fumbled, recovered by NEVSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
79.5%
Jamaal Bell run for 1 yd to the NEV 40Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+7
79.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to John Jackson III for 7 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
78.2%
Sean Dollars run for no gain to the NEV 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
78.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 9 yds to the TXST 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
78.1%
Sean Dollars run for no gain to the TXST 44Similar
Q2 13:51
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+9
77.0%
Brendon Lewis run for 9 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
76.5%
Sean Dollars run for 6 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+24
76.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to for 24 yds to the TXST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
76.4%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the TXST 8Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
76.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 7 yds to the TXST 1Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
71.9%
Zac Welch 0 Yd Fumble Return (Brandon Talton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 56 yds · 3:0470% → 68%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
70.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 22 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
71.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 9 yds to the NEV 44Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+21
71.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 21 yds to the NEV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
72.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the NEV 27Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+7
72.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 7 yds to the NEV 20Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
71.9%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the NEV 19Similar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
67.6%
TJ Finley run for no gain to the NEV 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1231% → 33%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
68.6%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the NEV 21Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+1
68.6%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 20Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
69.1%
Nevada Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Isaiah Essissima) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
67.3%
Matt Freem punt for 47 yds , Joey Hobert returns for no gain to the TXST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7DOWNS
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:5264% → 60%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
64.1%
Nevada Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Tongiaki Mateialona) to the TXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
65.9%
Nevada Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Dion Washington) to the NEV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
66.0%
Donerio Davenport run for 1 yd to the NEV 35Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+4
66.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Donerio Davenport for 4 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+10
66.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 10 yds to the NEV 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
66.8%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Drew DonleySimilar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
66.6%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+4
65.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 4 yds to the NEV 17Similar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 6
OPP 17
0
60.0%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8INT
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:5044% → 62%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
56.1%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 16Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 11
OWN 16
0
57.0%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+19
57.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 19 yds to the NEV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+1
53.8%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
54.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the NEV 49Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+10
54.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 10 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
53.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to John Jackson IIISimilar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
53.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Keleki Latu for 5 yds to the TXST 36Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
38.5%
Brendon Lewis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:1350% → 52%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
50.0%
TJ Finley run for 17 yds to the NEV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-6
51.6%
TJ Finley sacked by Ike Nnakenyi for a loss of 6 yards to the NEV 40 TJ Finley fumbled, recovered by NEV Eli'jah Winston , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1748% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
47.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 12 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
49.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 12 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
50.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 9 yds to the NEV 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+4
51.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 4 yds to the NEV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
51.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the NEV 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+3
50.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Titus Lyons for 3 yds to the NEV 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+8
50.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 8 yds to the NEV 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+12
51.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 12 yds to the NEV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+3
51.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the NEV 25Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 17
OPP 25
+25
55.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 25 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5048% → 51%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
51.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cross Patton for 2 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
50.3%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the NEV 48Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
50.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Keleki LatuSimilar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
50.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Jamaal BellSimilar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
49.5%
Matt Freem punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12FUMBLE
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:2449% → 45%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
48.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 8 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+21
49.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 21 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
51.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 9
50
+4
51.7%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 4 yds to the NEV 46Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+4
51.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 4 yds to the NEV 42Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
45.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the NEV 40 Jahmyl Jeter fumbled, recovered by NEV Drue WattsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5759% → 58%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
41.1%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to John Jackson IIISimilar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
41.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to John Jackson III for 2 yds to the NEV 42Similar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
41.9%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Spencer CurtisSimilar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+3
41.9%
Matt Freem punt for 44 yds , Joey Hobert returns for 3 yds to the TXST 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14TD
2 plays · 83 yds · 0:4242% → 63%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
41.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 6 yds to the TXST 23Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+77
62.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 77 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · 33 yds · 1:1241% → 46%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
58.9%
Sean Dollars run for 20 yds to the NEV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
56.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 5
50
+8
54.1%
Cross Patton run for 8 yds to the TXST 42 Cross Patton fumbled, recovered by NEV Chris MillsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:3364% → 81%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
64.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 6 yds to the TXST 48Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
65.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the TXST 48Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+6
64.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 6 yds to the NEV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
65.7%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Drew DonleySimilar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+46
81.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 46 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17FUMBLE
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:2524% → 31%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
76.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to John Jackson III for 3 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+19
75.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 19 yds to the NEV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
72.8%
Sean Dollars run for 7 yds to the TXST 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+3
71.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the TXST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
72.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the TXST 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+1
72.1%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the TXST 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+15
72.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Keleki Latu for 15 yds to the TXST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
68.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for no gain Dalevon Campbell fumbled, recovered by NEV Dan FosterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:4778% → 94%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 27Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
77.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the TXST 27Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
76.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 10 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
78.8%
TJ Finley run for 5 yds to the TXST 42Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-6
80.0%
TJ Finley sacked by Marcel Walker-Burgess for a loss of 6 yards to the TXST 36Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+28
76.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 28 yds to the NEV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
93.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 36 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:158% → 7%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 6 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
91.2%
Sean Dollars run for 5 yds to the NEV 26Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
92.9%
PENALTY NEV False Start (Madrigal,Andrew) 5 yards from NEV26 to NEV21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+12
93.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Keleki Latu for 12 yds Keleki Latu fumbled, recovered by NEV Keleki LatuSimilar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+1
93.2%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20TD
4 plays · 34 yds · 1:2594% → 99%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
94.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 18 yds to the NEV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
94.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the NEV 13Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
98.6%
Malik Hornsby run for 13 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:532% → 8%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Keleki Latu for no gain to the NEV 25Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Keleki Latu for 8 yds to the NEV 33Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
97.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 5 yds to the NEV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
97.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds to the NEV 40Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
97.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to John Jackson IIISimilar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+11
97.8%
Brendon Lewis run for 11 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+43
97.6%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Isaiah Essissima for 43 yds to the TXST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.2%
Jacques Badolato-Birdsell run for no gain to the TXST 6Similar
Q4 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.3%
AJ Bianco run for 2 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:5597% → 97%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
96.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 48Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 48
-2
96.6%
T. Finley takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:42
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 77 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
+21.1
TD · Q4 8:30
Ismail Mahdi run for 36 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
+17.1
TD · Q3 0:49
Ismail Mahdi run for 46 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
+15.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com