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CMU

Central Michigan 34 at South Alabama 30

USA
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:54 · Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the USA 3 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 56Pregame prior+29.5Home team on offense+2.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:31: Jase Bauer run for 1 yd for a TD South Alabama Penalty, Illegal Substitution ( Yards) declined (Tristan Mattson KICK) — CMU win probability +22.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:47: Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 70 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK) — CMU win probability +18.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:27: Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 72 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo PAT MISSED) — USA win probability +14.6 pts (now 49%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:42: La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +40.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:13: Jase Bauer run for 4 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK) — CMU win probability +58.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:40CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:00CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:54USA 4th & 18 at USA 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−1.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:54CMU 4th & 2 at USA 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    16.6%−0.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:29USA 4th & 1 at CMU 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.1%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:06USA 4th & 9 at USA 26, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:39USA 4th & 12 at USA 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−4.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:38CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 43, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:53USA 4th & 6 at CMU 15, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−15.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:33CMU 4th & 21 at CMU 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−7.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:33CMU 4th & 21 at CMU 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−7.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:30USA 4th & 8 at USA 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:09CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−5.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:02USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:23USA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:37CMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:13CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    22.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:31CMU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:47CMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:27USA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:42USA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−1.5
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:13CMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1311% → 12%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
88.8%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the CMU 23Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+2
88.8%
Myles Bailey run for 2 yds to the CMU 21Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+6
88.8%
Bert Emanuel Jr. pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 6 yds to the CMU 27Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
88.2%
Jake Walrath punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3888% → 88%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
88.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 17 yds to the USA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
88.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 18 yds to the CMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
88.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Javon Ivory for 15 yds to the CMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
88.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 6 yds to the CMU 37Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+5
88.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the CMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
88.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Lincoln SefcikSimilar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
88.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 9 yds to the CMU 23Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
88.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the CMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.4%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0212% → 12%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.0%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 7 yds to the CMU 32Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
87.9%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 1 yd to the CMU 33Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
88.0%
Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the CMU 34Similar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
87.8%
Jake Walrath punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:3788% → 90%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
87.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 3 yds to the USA 32Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+2
87.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+17
87.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 17 yds to the CMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
88.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the CMU 44Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+9
88.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 9 yds to the CMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
89.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 35 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:4611% → 15%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.0%
Jase Bauer run for 3 yds to the CMU 28Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
88.9%
Myles Bailey run for 16 yds to the CMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
88.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Chris Parker for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 4
50
+3
88.7%
Myles Bailey run for 3 yds to the USA 47Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+1
88.6%
Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
88.7%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Thomas PannunzioSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
88.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Thomas Pannunzio for 6 yds to the USA 40Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+8
88.6%
Jase Bauer run for 8 yds to the USA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
88.3%
Marion Lukes run for 14 yds to the USA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
88.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 3 yds to the USA 15Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
84.9%
Jase Bauer run for 15 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:4387% → 86%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
86.5%
Carter Bradley sacked by Quindario Lee for a loss of 10 yards to the USA 15Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
86.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Kentrel BullockSimilar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+2
86.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 2 yds to the USA 17Similar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
85.5%
Jack Martin punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7TD
18 plays · 69 yds · 7:4114% → 23%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
85.8%
PENALTY CMU False Start (Parker,Chris) 5 yards from CMU31 to CMU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+20
85.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Chris Parker for 20 yds to the CMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
85.2%
Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the CMU 47Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
85.4%
Central Michigan Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+10
85.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bauer,Jase pass complete short left to Bailey,Myles for 3 yards loss to the CMU43 (Jacobs,Khalil) PENALTY USA Holding (Robinson,Marquise) 10 yards from CMU46 to USA44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
85.0%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Tyson DavisSimilar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
85.1%
Myles Bailey run for 2 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+20
85.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 20 yds to the USA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
84.4%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the USA 24Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+11
84.4%
Jase Bauer run for 11 yds to the USA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
84.4%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Chris ParkerSimilar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
84.4%
Marion Lukes run for 5 yds to the USA 8Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+3
84.9%
Myles Bailey run for 3 yds to the USA 5Similar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+2
85.4%
Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the USA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
84.4%
Myles Bailey run for 2 yds to the USA 1Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.4%
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd for a TD (Tristan Mattson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:3981% → 80%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
80.9%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 2 yds to the USA 12Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+2
80.7%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 2 yds to the USA 14Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+28
80.1%
Carter Bradley run for 13 yds to the USA 27 for a 1ST down Central Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (Jarvarius Sims) to the USA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
82.3%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 6 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+16
82.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 16 yds to the CMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
82.9%
PJ Martin run for 1 yd to the CMU 35Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
83.1%
PJ Martin run for no gain to the CMU 35Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+8
81.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 8 yds to the CMU 27Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
80.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the CMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:2922% → 22%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
78.4%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 31Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+6
78.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 6 yds to the CMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5480% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.7%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the USA 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
78.7%
South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:06
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
77.8%
Jack Martin punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Javorian Wimberly at the CMU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 5:3523% → 47%
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
76.8%
Jase Bauer run for no gain to the CMU 44Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
77.4%
Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the CMU 45Similar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+10
77.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 10 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
76.3%
Jase Bauer run for 5 yds to the USA 40Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+11
76.0%
Jase Bauer run for 11 yds to the USA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
75.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 3 yds to the USA 26Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
75.2%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Mitchel CollierSimilar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+17
76.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 17 yds to the USA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
75.2%
Marion Lukes run for 8 yds to the USA 1Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.7%
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd for a TD South Alabama Penalty, Illegal Substitution ( Yards) declined (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5261% → 57%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 2 yds to the USA 23Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
60.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Brandon CrumSimilar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
59.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
57.3%
Jack Martin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Javorian Wimberly at the CMU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0148% → 47%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
52.0%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt IIISimilar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
52.6%
Myles Bailey run for 4 yds to the CMU 43Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
52.3%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Thomas PannunzioSimilar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
53.1%
Jake Walrath punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 5:4556% → 60%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
55.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the USA 25Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+1
55.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 1 yd to the USA 26Similar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+9
53.9%
Carter Bradley run for 9 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
56.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 1 yd to the USA 34Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+12
56.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 12 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
59.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 24 yds to the CMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
62.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 6 yds to the CMU 24Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+5
62.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 5 yds to the CMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
62.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the CMU 20Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+5
62.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the CMU 15Similar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
60.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+32
59.6%
Diego Guajardo 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0645% → 67%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 6 yds to the CMU 31Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
51.6%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the CMU 30Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+70
33.3%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 70 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2033% → 49%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
32.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 8 yds to the USA 33Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
34.3%
Carter Bradley sacked by Jacques Bristol for a loss of 5 yards to the USA 28Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+72
48.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 72 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:4156% → 54%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
44.1%
Jase Bauer run for no gain to the CMU 30Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
45.1%
Central Michigan Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jase Bauer) to the CMU 24Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 16
OWN 24
-5
47.3%
Jase Bauer sacked by Charles Coleman III for a loss of 5 yards to the CMU 19Similar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 21
OWN 19
+6
46.1%
Jake Walrath punt for 51 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 6 yds to the USA 36Similar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 21
OWN 19
+6
46.1%
Jake Walrath punt for 51 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 6 yds to the USA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:0346% → 40%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
46.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the USA 49Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+1
46.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 6
50
+3
45.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the CMU 47Similar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 3
OPP 47
-5
43.9%
PENALTY USA False Start (Smith,Reggie) 5 yards from CMU47 to USA48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
40.3%
Jack Martin punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Javorian Wimberly at the CMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:2163% → 68%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
37.1%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 2 yds to the CMU 18Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+5
37.7%
Jase Bauer run for 5 yds to the CMU 23Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+9
37.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 9 yds to the CMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
35.4%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the CMU 33Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
36.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Myles Bailey for no gain to the CMU 33Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
38.2%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Chris ParkerSimilar
Q4 6:09
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+21
31.6%
Jake Walrath punt for 47 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 21 yds to the USA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 3:2739% → 85%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
39.4%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
39.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+19
36.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 19 yds to the CMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
42.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jay'juan TownsendSimilar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
41.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 8 yds to the CMU 30Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+29
41.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 29 yds to the CMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
44.6%
Marco Lee Jr. run for no gain to the CMU 1Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.4%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 2:2930% → 96%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.1%
Marion Lukes run for no gain to the CMU 25Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 5 yds to the CMU 30Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
69.6%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 13 yds to the CMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
71.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marion Lukes for 9 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+10
67.0%
Shotgun Bauer,Jase pass incomplete short right to Parker,Chris PENALTY USA Holding (Voisin,Jaden) 10 yards from USA48 to USA38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
67.7%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt IIISimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
67.7%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Tyson DavisSimilar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+3
70.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 3 yds to the USA 35Similar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+15
72.1%
PENALTY USA UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Wilfawn,Quentin) 15 yards from USA35 to USA20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
64.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Tyson Davis for 16 yds to the USA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
64.5%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Jesse Prewitt IIISimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
64.5%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Chris ParkerSimilar
Q4 0:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.5%
Jase Bauer run for 4 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:1315% → 18%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
14.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 20 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
17.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:13
Jase Bauer run for 4 yds for a TD (Tristan Mattson KICK)
-58.4
TD · Q4 2:42
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+40.9
TD · Q3 8:31
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd for a TD South Alabama Penalty, Illegal Substitution ( Yards) declined (Tristan Mattson KICK)
-22.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com