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BUF

Buffalo 38 at Louisiana 45

UL
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:16 · Anthony Venneri punt for 43 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for 17 yds to the UL 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Home team on offense+2.8Pregame prior+21.0Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:25: CJ Ogbonna run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +8.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:02: Jacob Kibodi run for 69 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +10.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:47: Ron Cook Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD Louisiana Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Tyree Skipper) to the UL 0 (R. Cook Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion) — BUF win probability +12.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:46: Zeon Chriss run for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +8.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:00: Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +11.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BUF made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 13:18UL 4th & 7 at UL 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:49BUF 4th & 15 at BUF 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:37UL 4th & 2 at BUF 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    75.2%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:53BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:16BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:09UL 4th & 5 at BUF 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:00BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:08UL 4th & 5 at BUF 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−4.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:30BUF 4th & 22 at BUF 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−1.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:40BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:55BUF 4th & 1 at UL 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−1.9
    86% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−8.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:32BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:42BUF 4th & 5 at UL 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−3.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:31BUF 4th & 2 at UL 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:24UL 4th & 2 at UL 27, up 7
    Close callPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 2:57UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:05UL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:25BUF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:02UL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:30UL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:06BUF Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    5.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:47BUF Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:46UL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:40UL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:32BUF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.2%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:00BUF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:4277% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
76.8%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 17 yds to the UL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
76.8%
Zeon Chriss run for 2 yds to the UL 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+1
76.8%
Jacob Kibodi run for 1 yd to the UL 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
76.8%
Zeon Chriss pass incomplete to Jacob BernardSimilar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
76.4%
Thomas Leo punt for 44 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for no gain to the BUFF 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2924% → 24%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
76.4%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the BUFF 13Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+2
76.5%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the BUFF 11Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 10
OWN 11
0
76.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 10
OWN 11
-5
76.5%
PENALTY UB Delay Of Game (Venneri,Anthony) 5 yards from UB11 to UB06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 15
OWN 6
+5
76.3%
Anthony Venneri punt for 38 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for 5 yds to the BUFF 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:1276% → 76%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
76.4%
Terrence Williams run for 1 yd to the BUFF 38Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+5
76.4%
Zeon Chriss run for 5 yds to the BUFF 33Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+2
76.4%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 2 yds to the BUFF 31Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 2
OPP 31
0
75.8%
Zeon Chriss pass incomplete to Jacob KibodiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:4425% → 26%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
75.4%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the BUFF 33Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-5
75.4%
PENALTY UB False Start (Wright,Isaiah) 5 yards from UB33 to UB28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+13
75.5%
Mike Washington run for 13 yds to the BUFF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
75.2%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the BUFF 43Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
75.2%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the BUFF 46Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+2
75.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 2 yds to the BUFF 48Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+1
74.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 1 yd to the BUFF 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5TD
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:5675% → 78%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
75.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 8 yds to the BUFF 41Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+1
75.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 1 yd to the BUFF 40Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+4
75.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Robert Williams for 4 yds to the BUFF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+24
75.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Pearse Migl for 24 yds Pearse Migl fumbled, recovered by UL Pearse Migl for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
75.6%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 1 yd to the BUFF 11Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+3
75.6%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 3 yds to the BUFF 8Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
78.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Neal Johnson for 8 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3823% → 22%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
77.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the BUFF 29Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+1
76.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the BUFF 28Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
77.3%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+17
78.0%
Anthony Venneri punt for 43 yds , Jacob Bernard returns for 17 yds to the UL 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0778% → 78%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
78.4%
Jacob Kibodi run for no gain to the UL 46Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
78.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 5 yds to the BUFF 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
78.2%
Zeon Chriss run for no gain to the BUFF 49Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
77.8%
Thomas Leo punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 4:0922% → 22%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
77.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUFF 11Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 11
0
77.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Ron Cook Jr.Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+12
78.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 12 yds to the BUFF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
77.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Nik McMillan for 16 yds to the BUFF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
76.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 2 yds to the BUFF 41Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+2
76.9%
Cole Snyder run for 2 yds to the BUFF 39Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-1
77.4%
Cole Snyder sacked by Tyler Guidry for a loss of 1 yard to the BUFF 38Similar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
78.3%
Anthony Venneri punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9FG
16 plays · 81 yds · 5:5278% → 81%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
77.9%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 13 yds to the UL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
78.2%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 3 yds to the UL 30Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
78.1%
Zeon Chriss pass incomplete to Harvey BroussardSimilar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+6
77.7%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 6 yds to the UL 36Similar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+5
77.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Chriss,Zeon rush middle for 0 yards to the LA36 (Andreessen,Joe) PENALTY UB Offside (Williams,Daymond) 5 yards from LA36 to LA41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
78.9%
Zeon Chriss run for 5 yds to the UL 46Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+9
79.1%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 9 yds to the BUFF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
79.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Charles Robertson for 8 yds to the BUFF 37Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+11
79.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Charles Robertson for 11 yds to the BUFF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
79.4%
Terrence Williams run for no gain to the BUFF 26Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+19
79.4%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Robert Williams for 19 yds to the BUFF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
81.1%
Zeon Chriss pass incomplete to Peter LeBlancSimilar
Q2 4:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
81.1%
Terrence Williams run for 2 yds to the BUFF 5Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
80.5%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
81.4%
Kenneth Almendares 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 4 yds · 2:3818% → 17%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.2%
CJ Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the BUFF 29Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
81.9%
CJ Ogbonna run for 5 yds to the BUFF 34Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
81.5%
Mike Washington run for 7 yds to the BUFF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
81.4%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the BUFF 42Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-4
81.4%
Cole Snyder sacked by Amir McDaniel for a loss of 4 yards to the BUFF 38Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 13
OWN 38
-9
82.6%
Cole Snyder sacked by Kendre' Gant for a loss of 9 yards to the BUFF 29Similar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 22
OWN 29
0
83.3%
Anthony Venneri punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11INT
11 plays · 72 yds · 1:2881% → 84%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
81.1%
Jacob Kibodi run for 12 yds to the UL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
81.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Robert Williams for 18 yds to the UL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
82.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 15 yds to the BUFF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
82.4%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 6 yds to the BUFF 35Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+7
82.8%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Robert Williams for 7 yds to the BUFF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
84.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 2 yds to the BUFF 26Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+5
84.3%
Zeon Chriss run for 5 yds to the BUFF 21Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+7
82.9%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 7 yds to the BUFF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
83.6%
Zeon Chriss pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
82.6%
Kneel down by Buffalo at UB18 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:2020% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
80.5%
PENALTY UB False Start (Harrity,Cole) 5 yards from UB25 to UB20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
80.6%
CJ Ogbonna run for 9 yds to the BUFF 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
80.1%
CJ Ogbonna pass complete to Mike Washington for 3 yds to the BUFF 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
81.2%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
83.0%
Anthony Venneri punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:3582% → 91%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
82.4%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 1 yd to the UL 37Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+9
82.1%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 9 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
82.9%
Dre'lyn Washington run for no gain to the UL 46Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+54
90.7%
Zeon Chriss run for 54 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:3010% → 20%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+49
89.7%
Mike Washington run for 49 yds to the UL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
88.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
88.3%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the UL 18Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+6
88.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 6 yds to the UL 12Similar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+3
88.8%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the UL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
88.0%
No Huddle Washington,Mike rush middle for 0 yards to the LA09 (Lawson,Jordan; Guidry,Tyler) PENALTY LA Illegal Substitution 5 yards from LA09 to LA04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.6%
CJ Ogbonna run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
Q3 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
79.6%
Louisiana Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2383% → 93%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
83.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Chriss,Zeon rush left for 4 yards gain to the LA29 (Offord,Caleb) PENALTY LA Holding (Burton,Landon) 10 yards from LA25 to LA15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
82.9%
Jacob Kibodi run for no gain to the UL 15Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+16
82.8%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Charles Robertson for 16 yds to the UL 31Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+69
93.2%
Jacob Kibodi run for 69 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17INT TD
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:309% → 3%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
91.2%
CJ Ogbonna run for 3 yds to the BUFF 25Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+4
91.2%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the BUFF 29Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-24
96.6%
Patrick Mensah 24 Yd Interception Return (Kenneth Almendares Kick)Similar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
97.0%
Leo,Thomas kickoff 53 yards to the UB12 Cook,Ron return 14 yards to the UB26 (Barnes,Key'Savalyn) PENALTY LA Equipment Violation 5 yards from LA35 to LA30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:523% → 3%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
96.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Cameron BallSimilar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
96.6%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the BUFF 41Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
96.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q3 5:32
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
97.0%
Anthony Venneri punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19TD
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:264% → 7%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
96.3%
Cole Harrity run for 2 yds to the UL 16Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+5
96.3%
CJ Ogbonna run for 5 yds to the UL 11Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+3
96.6%
CJ Ogbonna run for 3 yds to the UL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
96.3%
CJ Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the UL 4Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20INT
3 plays · -7 yds · 1:1895% → 94%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-4
95.3%
Zeon Chriss sacked by Max Michel for a loss of 4 yards to the UL 6Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 14
OWN 6
+3
93.9%
Terrence Williams run for 3 yds to the UL 3Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 17
OWN 3
0
94.1%
Zeon Chriss pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:507% → 19%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
93.4%
CJ Ogbonna run for 1 yd to the UL 12Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
81.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD Louisiana Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Tyree Skipper) to the UL 0 (R. Cook Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0186% → 96%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
86.3%
Zeon Chriss run for 8 yds to the UL 33Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+24
86.7%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 24 yds to the BUFF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+25
88.2%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 25 yds to the BUFF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
88.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 6 yds to the BUFF 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+10
88.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Chriss,Zeon pass incomplete short left to Broussard,Harvey PENALTY UB Pass Interference (Offord,Caleb) 10 yards from UB12 to UB02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
88.3%
Zeon Chriss run for 1 yd to the BUFF 1Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.4%
Zeon Chriss run for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:045% → 9%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
95.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Snyder,Cole pass complete short left to Curry,Boobie for 6 yards to the UB31, End Of Play PENALTY UB Pass Interference (Schnackenberg,Andrew) 12 yards from UB25 to UB13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+16
95.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 16 yds to the BUFF 29Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
95.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 19 yds to the BUFF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
95.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cameron Ball for 19 yds to the UL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
94.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the UL 29Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
94.1%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Boobie CurrySimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+1
95.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the UL 28Similar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+47
91.1%
Alex McNulty 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0297% → 100%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
96.8%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Terrance Carter for 16 yds to the UL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
97.1%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 1
50
+2
97.1%
Jacob Kibodi run for 2 yds to the UL 48Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+16
96.9%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jacob Kibodi for 16 yds to the BUFF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-7
97.2%
Zeon Chriss sacked by Devonyal Lofton for a loss of 7 yards to the BUFF 43Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 17
OPP 43
+23
97.1%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Charles Robertson for 23 yds to the BUFF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.5%
Jacob Kibodi run for 20 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:081% → 7%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
98.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the BUFF 41Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
98.9%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+25
98.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 25 yds to the UL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
98.7%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 5 yds to the UL 29Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+5
98.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 5 yds to the UL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
98.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+8
98.7%
Cole Snyder run for 8 yds to the UL 16Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+4
98.8%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 4 yds to the UL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
98.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Andrew SchnackenbergSimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
92.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 12 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:316% → 19%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
93.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the BUFF 48Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+9
93.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Nik McMillan for 9 yds to the UL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
93.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 8 yds to the UL 35Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
92.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
92.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the UL 35Similar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+2
93.5%
Cole Snyder run for 2 yds to the UL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+32
92.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cameron Ball for 32 yds to the UL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.3%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:3494% → 97%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
94.4%
Terrence Williams run for 2 yds to the UL 17Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 12
OWN 17
0
94.6%
Terrence Williams run for no gain to the UL 17 Terrence Williams fumbled, recovered by UL Zeon ChrissSimilar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+10
94.8%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 10 yds to the UL 27Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
97.3%
Thomas Leo punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the BUFF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 28INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:099% → 11%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
90.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
91.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 12 yds to the BUFF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
89.8%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
90.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 7 yds to the BUFF 49Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+7
88.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 7 yds to the UL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
87.8%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
89.0%
Cole Snyder pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
98.2%
Kneel down by Louisiana at UB50 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:47
Ron Cook Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD Louisiana Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Tyree Skipper) to the UL 0 (R. Cook Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion)
-12.3
TD · Q4 2:00
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
-11.6
TD · Q3 8:02
Jacob Kibodi run for 69 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
+10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com