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JMU

James Madison 45 at Utah State 38

USU
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreJMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:12 · McCae Hillstead pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 170Home team on offense−20.1Score differential−2.7Garbage-time factor−10.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9Pregame prior−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:37: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 57 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +8.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:32: Jordan McCloud run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +12.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:23: Terrell Vaughn 6 Yd pass from McCae Hillstead (Elliott Nimrod Kick) — USU win probability +14.9 pts (now 37%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:01: McCae Hillstead pass complete to Micah Davis for 76 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK) — USU win probability +27.2 pts (now 55%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:52: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 74 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +33.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11JMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 11:37USU 4th & 20 at USU 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:06JMU 4th & 2 at USU 2, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.9%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:08USU 4th & 14 at USU 2, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:08JMU 4th & 5 at USU 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:51USU 4th & 16 at USU 19, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:01USU 4th & 11 at USU 35, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:29USU 4th & 4 at JMU 18, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    22.0%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−5.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:30USU 4th & 2 at JMU 30, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    16.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:07USU 4th & 9 at JMU 11, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−2.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−5.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:03JMU 4th & 10 at JMU 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:31USU 4th & 4 at JMU 20, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.1%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−5.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:35JMU 4th & 8 at USU 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    73.0%−0.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:15USU 4th & 12 at JMU 44, down 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.9%−1.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    25.6%−1.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    27.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:56JMU 4th & 5 at JMU 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:37USU 4th & 16 at USU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−9.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:12USU 4th & 18 at JMU 39, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    16.9%
    36% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−1.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:43JMU 4th & 1 at JMU 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5JMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 14:03JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:44JMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:51JMU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:29USU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:37JMU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:27USU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:32JMU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:36USU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:23USU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:01USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:52JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JMUDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:5754% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
46.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 9 yds to the JMU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
46.4%
Kaelon Black run for 12 yds to the JMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
46.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 54 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 2:2246% → 46%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
46.3%
Rahsul Faison run for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 10Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 13
OWN 10
-1
46.3%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 9Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 14
OWN 9
+5
46.2%
HILLSTEAD, McCae pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BOWMAN, Colby thrown to the USU25. PENALTY JMU Offsides on GREEN, Jalen enforced 5 yards from the USU9 to the USU14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 9
OWN 14
-8
46.2%
McCae Hillstead sacked by James Carpenter for a loss of 8 yards to the USU 6Similar
Q1 13:59
4TH & 17
OWN 6
0
46.2%
Utah State Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the USU 3Similar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 20
OWN 3
0
45.7%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 46 yds , returns for no gain to the USU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 3FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:3155% → 55%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
45.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 8 yds to the USU 31Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+8
45.5%
Kaelon Black run for 8 yds to the USU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
45.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 2 yds to the USU 21Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+15
45.5%
Ty Son Lawton run for 15 yds to the USU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
45.5%
Ty Son Lawton run for 4 yds to the USU 2Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
45.5%
Ty Son Lawton run for 1 yd to the USU 1Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
45.5%
Ty Son Lawton run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 2Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
44.6%
Camden Wise 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5245% → 44%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
44.5%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 6
-4
44.5%
McCae Hillstead sacked by Jarius Reimonenq for a loss of 4 yards to the USU 2Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 14
OWN 2
0
44.2%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 14
OWN 2
0
44.0%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 42 ydsSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
43.8%
James Madison Penalty, Illegal Snap on MORRIS, Tanner enforced (-5 Yards) to the USU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:2456% → 63%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+8
43.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 8 yds to the USU 33Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+2
43.7%
Jordan McCloud run for 2 yds to the USU 31Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
43.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+19
44.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 19 yds to the USU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
43.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kyi Wright for 11 yds to the USU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.3%
Jordan McCloud run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:5338% → 37%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
37.8%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Davon Booth for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 22Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-8
37.7%
McCae Hillstead sacked by Jalen Green for a loss of 8 yards to the USU 14Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+5
37.7%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the USU 19Similar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
36.5%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Josh Sarratt at the JMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 3:0064% → 74%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
36.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 10 yds to the JMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
36.0%
Utah State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Paul Fitzgerald) to the USU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
35.9%
Ty Son Lawton run for 16 yds to the USU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
35.9%
QB Keeper MCCLOUD, Jordan rush to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the USU21 (DREW, JD), out of bounds. PENALTY USU Unnecessary Roughness on DREW, JD enforced half the distance from the goal, 11 yards from the USU22 to the USU11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
35.9%
Latrele Palmer run for 1 yd to the USU 10Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+7
32.6%
Latrele Palmer run for 7 yds to the USU 3Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
25.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 3 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:5029% → 27%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
29.3%
Davon Booth run for 8 yds to the USU 33Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
29.7%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the USU 34Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
29.7%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
29.8%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
29.4%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 35Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
29.2%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
27.1%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 37 yds, downed at the JMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 9INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:3076% → 77%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
24.0%
Kaelon Black run for a loss of 4 yards to the JMU 24Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+1
24.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 1 yd to the JMU 25Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 13
OWN 25
0
23.2%
Jordan McCloud pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:0228% → 33%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
27.8%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 4 yds to the JMU 20Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+2
27.8%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 2 yds to the JMU 18Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
27.5%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+18
32.7%
Elliott Nimrod run for 18 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 11TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 2:4771% → 80%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
28.6%
James Madison Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jordan McCloud) to the JMU 10Similar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+10
28.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 10 yds to the JMU 20Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
28.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
28.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+5
29.3%
Utah State Penalty, Offsides (Ike Larsen) to the JMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
28.4%
Kaelon Black run for 24 yds to the JMU 49 James Madison Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the JMU 19Similar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 16
OWN 19
+3
28.6%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the JMU 22Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+14
28.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 14 yds to the JMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
28.2%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
28.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Yamir Knight for 7 yds to the JMU 43Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+57
19.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 57 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1024% → 30%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.7%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 1 yd to the USU 26Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
23.6%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
23.4%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for 11 yds to the USU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
29.9%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Colby Bowman for 63 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:5574% → 88%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
26.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 8 yds to the JMU 33Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
25.8%
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the JMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
25.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 11 yds to the JMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
25.2%
James Madison Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jordan McCloud) to the JMU 37Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 21
OWN 37
+11
26.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Yamir Knight for 11 yds to the JMU 48Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+11
25.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Taji Hudson for 11 yds to the USU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
25.0%
Kaelon Black run for 16 yds to the USU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
24.8%
Jordan McCloud run for 6 yds to the USU 19Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+18
24.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 18 yds to the USU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 1:2519% → 25%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.6%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+37
18.4%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Otto Tia for 37 yds to the JMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
20.6%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
18.0%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Otto Tia for 9 yds to the JMU 29Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 1
OPP 29
-1
18.1%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 30Similar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+18
17.3%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 18 yds to the JMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
18.3%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+1
25.2%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Otto Tia for 1 yd to the JMU 11Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
24.1%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+28
25.4%
Elliott Nimrod 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.2%
[NH] Kneel down by MCCLOUD, Jordan at JMU23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2417% → 27%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
17.4%
Davon Booth run for 6 yds to the USU 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
18.0%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the USU 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
18.0%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for 4 yds to the USU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
18.1%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the USU 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
18.3%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Broc Lane for 6 yds to the USU 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
19.0%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the USU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
19.0%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 13 yds to the JMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
19.4%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the JMU 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
19.2%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+18
19.0%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for 18 yds to the JMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
26.8%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 20 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:3378% → 79%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
21.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
22.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
20.9%
Ryan Hanson punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
23.8%
McCae Hillstead pass intercepted Jarius Reimonenq fumbled, recovered by USU Wade MeachamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19MISSED FG
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:4624% → 22%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
23.8%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Colby Bowman for 15 yds to the JMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
24.7%
Micah Davis pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 2 yds to the JMU 24Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
24.7%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+4
23.6%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the JMU 20Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
21.7%
Elliott Nimrod 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 20INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0382% → 78%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
18.0%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the JMU 22Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
18.1%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the JMU 25Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
16.8%
Jordan McCloud pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
22.5%
BRIGGS, Robert rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the JMU19 (SARRATT, Josh). PENALTY USU Holding on MEACHAM, Wade enforced 10 yards from the JMU24 to the JMU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:0522% → 37%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+2
22.0%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 2 yds to the JMU 32Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 18
OPP 32
+25
21.4%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Jalen Royals for 25 yds to the JMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
22.4%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the JMU 5Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
22.4%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 6Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
37.3%
Terrell Vaughn 6 Yd pass from McCae Hillstead (Elliott Nimrod Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4074% → 73%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
26.1%
Latrele Palmer run for 1 yd to the USU 39Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
26.2%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+1
26.6%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the USU 38Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
27.0%
Ryan Hanson punt for 34 yds, downed at the USU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23DOWNS
15 plays · 53 yds · 5:2031% → 27%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
31.3%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+10
31.1%
Davon Booth run for 10 yds to the USU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
32.0%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the USU 16Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+11
32.1%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Broc Lane for 11 yds to the USU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
32.9%
Davon Booth run for 6 yds to the USU 33Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-2
34.3%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 31Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+6
32.1%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Micah Davis for 6 yds to the USU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
30.4%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 21 yds to the JMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
34.1%
BOOTH, Davon rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the JMU33 (TUCKER, Tyrique;REID, Que). PENALTY USU Holding on MOTES, Cole enforced 10 yards from the JMU42 to the USU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+5
31.1%
HILLSTEAD, McCae pass to the right complete for 8 yards to BOWMAN, Colby caught at the JMU45 and advanced to the JMU44 (HUDSON, Taji), out of bounds. PENALTY JMU Offsides on GREEN, Jalen enforced 5 yards from the USU48 to the JMU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 47
-5
31.9%
Utah State Penalty, False Start (Broc Lane) to the USU 48Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+8
31.1%
McCae Hillstead run for 8 yds to the JMU 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 44
0
31.9%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 44
0
31.1%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:15
4TH & 12
OPP 44
+1
27.3%
Stephen Kotsanlee pass complete to Jalen Royals for 1 yd to the JMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1979% → 77%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
21.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 3
50
-2
20.3%
Kaelon Black run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 48Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
21.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:56
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
23.0%
Ryan Hanson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the USU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 90 yds · 0:5527% → 55%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
27.1%
Davon Booth run for 9 yds to the USU 19Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+5
27.9%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the USU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
55.0%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Micah Davis for 76 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 26FUMBLE
5 plays · 36 yds · 2:1350% → 57%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
49.9%
Kaelon Black run for 11 yds to the JMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
47.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Yamir Knight for 8 yds to the JMU 44Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+4
45.2%
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the JMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
45.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 6 yds to the USU 46Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+7
43.5%
Jordan McCloud run for 7 yds to the USU 39 Jordan McCloud fumbled, recovered by USU Blaine SpiresSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1159% → 52%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
58.5%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the USU 39Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
57.8%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-6
55.5%
McCae Hillstead sacked by Tyrique Tucker for a loss of 6 yards to the USU 33Similar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 16
OWN 33
0
52.2%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Josh Sarratt at the JMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 28TD
4 plays · 85 yds · 1:4549% → 84%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
50.8%
Kaelon Black run for 6 yds to the JMU 21Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+5
49.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 5 yds to the JMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
50.1%
Kaelon Black run for no gain to the JMU 26Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+74
16.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 74 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 29DOWNS
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:3021% → 20%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+42
21.1%
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 42 yds to the JMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-8
28.4%
McCae Hillstead sacked by Jamree Kromah and Jalen Green for a loss of 8 yards to the JMU 39Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 18
OPP 39
0
23.6%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 18
OPP 39
0
22.0%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:12
4TH & 18
OPP 39
0
19.8%
McCae Hillstead pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 30FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:3489% → 89%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
11.3%
Latrele Palmer run for 5 yds to the JMU 44Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
10.8%
Latrele Palmer run for 1 yd to the JMU 45 Latrele Palmer fumbled, recovered by USU Anthony SwitzerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 31INT
3 plays · 38 yds · 1:1527% → 29%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+35
26.5%
Davon Booth run for 35 yds to the JMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
28.8%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the JMU 7Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
28.9%
McCae Hillstead pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 32PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4089% → 94%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
11.4%
Kaelon Black run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 3Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 11
OWN 3
+4
6.2%
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the JMU 7Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+6
5.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 6 yds to the JMU 13Similar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 1
OWN 13
0
5.9%
Ryan Hanson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the JMU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 33INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
11.0%
McCae Hillstead pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 34END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
4.5%
[NHSG] Kneel down by MCCLOUD, Jordan at JMU43 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:52
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 74 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)
-33.9
TD · Q4 11:01
McCae Hillstead pass complete to Micah Davis for 76 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)
+27.2
TD · Q3 4:23
Terrell Vaughn 6 Yd pass from McCae Hillstead (Elliott Nimrod Kick)
+14.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com