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JMU

James Madison 16 at Troy 14

TROY
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreJMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:52 · Ryan Hanson punt for 36 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Pregame prior+5.2Home team on offense−15.3Score differential−7.7Garbage-time factor−5.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:24: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 9 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +14.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 9:32: Camden Wise 32 yd FG GOOD — JMU win probability +7.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:49: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 24 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +28.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:34: Gunnar Watson pass incomplete — JMU win probability +16.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00: [NHSG] Kneel down by MCCLOUD, Jordan at JMU41 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00. — JMU win probability +16.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 10 of 12JMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 13:45JMU 4th & 1 at TROY 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.8%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:56JMU 4th & 13 at TROY 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:50TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:55JMU 4th & 1 at JMU 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:01TROY 4th & 10 at JMU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00JMU 4th & 5 at TROY 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00TROY 4th & 16 at TROY 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:06JMU 4th & 9 at TROY 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:02JMU 4th & 21 at TROY 40, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    38.4%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:28TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 13, up 1
    Close callPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:45TROY 4th & 18 at TROY 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−1.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:32JMU 4th & 2 at TROY 14, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%−1.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−9.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:33TROY 4th & 13 at TROY 29, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−2.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:51JMU 4th & 4 at JMU 28, up 9
    Close callPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:50TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 29, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:52JMU 4th & 6 at JMU 29, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00TROY 4th & 3 at JMU 46, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%−5.0
    23% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−2.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:23JMU 4th & 11 at JMU 16, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−6.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:07TROY 4th & 14 at JMU 44, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−3.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%−2.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:50JMU 4th & 6 at JMU 10, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:35TROY 4th & 10 at JMU 31, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−5.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−9.3
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:03JMU 4th & 9 at TROY 45, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    64.9%−3.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%−1.2
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:03TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 10, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.1%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.9%−1.3
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:34TROY 4th & 15 at JMU 43, down 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 9.9 ptsWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.6%−9.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    29.5%
    28% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−14.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2JMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 11:10TROY Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:24JMU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:49TROY Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1INT
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:1569% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
68.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 12 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
68.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 6 yds to the TROY 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+1
68.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TROY 44Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
68.4%
Gunnar Watson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 3:4932% → 32%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
68.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Taji Hudson for 5 yds to the TROY 37Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+1
68.2%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the TROY 36Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+3
68.2%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+1
68.3%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the TROY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
68.2%
Ty Son Lawton run for 5 yds to the TROY 27Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-19
68.2%
run for a loss of 19 yards to the TROY 46 fumbled, recovered by JMU Jordan McCloudSimilar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 24
OPP 46
+11
68.3%
Ty Son Lawton run for 11 yds to the TROY 35Similar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 13
OPP 35
0
68.0%
Ryan Hanson punt for 29 yds, downed at the TROY 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:0668% → 68%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+30
67.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 30 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
68.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
68.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
68.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
67.5%
Robert Cole punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Sarratt at the JMU 19Similar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
67.6%
Troy Penalty, Disconcerting Signals on MCDONALD, Jayden enforced (Jayden McDonald) to the JMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5533% → 33%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 5
OWN 24
+3
67.4%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the JMU 27Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 2
OWN 27
-1
67.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 26Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+2
67.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 2 yds to the JMU 28Similar
Q1 6:55
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
67.5%
Ryan Hanson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:5467% → 67%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
67.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 17 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
68.0%
Jarris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 48Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+4
67.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 4 yds to the JMU 48Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+9
67.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 9 yds to the JMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 16
OPP 45
0
67.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 16
OPP 45
+6
67.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Asa Martin for 6 yds to the JMU 39Similar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
68.1%
Gunnar Watson sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the JMU 45Similar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 10
OPP 39
-10
66.6%
Gunnar Watson sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the JMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 6FG
5 plays · 41 yds · 3:0135% → 36%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+36
65.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 36 yds to the TROY 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
65.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
65.0%
Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds to the TROY 10Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
65.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
63.6%
Camden Wise 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
64.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
-1
64.1%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 11
-5
63.5%
WATSON, Gunnar pass short to the left complete for 13 yards to ROSS, Devonte caught at the TRO12 and advanced to the TRO24 (REID, Que). PENALTY TRO Illegal Forward Pass on WATSON, Gunnar enforced 5 yards from the TRO11 to the TRO6, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 6
0
63.2%
Robert Cole punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 8FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5438% → 39%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
62.1%
Latrele Palmer run for 1 yd to the TROY 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
62.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
62.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Latrele Palmer for 13 yds to the TROY 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
62.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+36
61.2%
Camden Wise 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5662% → 69%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
61.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 15 yds to the TROY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+29
63.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 29 yds to the JMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
64.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
63.6%
WATSON, Gunnar pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LEWIS, Chris thrown to the JMU2. PENALTY JMU Pass Interference on LOGAN, Chauncey enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards to the JMU16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
64.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 5 yds to the JMU 26Similar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
64.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the JMU 14Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
64.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+14
68.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 14 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:0833% → 33%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
67.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 34 yds to the TROY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
65.2%
Ty Son Lawton run for 4 yds to the TROY 37Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+8
65.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 8 yds to the TROY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
64.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 31Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+4
64.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 4 yds to the TROY 27Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 8
OPP 27
-13
65.0%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 13 yards to the TROY 40Similar
Q2 8:02
4TH & 21
OPP 40
0
67.1%
Ryan Hanson punt for 35 yds, downed at the TROY 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3467% → 66%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
66.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+4
66.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 9Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+4
65.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 4 yds to the TROY 13Similar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 2
OWN 13
0
65.5%
Robert Cole punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:0436% → 52%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
64.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-2
64.5%
Latrele Palmer run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 46Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+22
66.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 22 yds to the TROY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
62.9%
Ty Son Lawton run for 7 yds to the TROY 25Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+6
62.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 6 yds to the TROY 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
62.6%
Ty Son Lawton run for 11 yds to the TROY 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
62.6%
Ty Son Lawton run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 10Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
62.6%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the TROY 9Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
48.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 9 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:3952% → 50%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
52.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 26 yds to the JMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
55.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
54.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-8
53.3%
Gunnar Watson sacked by James Carpenter for a loss of 8 yards to the TROY 43Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 18
OWN 43
0
49.7%
Robert Cole punt for 56 yds, downed at the JMU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4049% → 49%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
50.6%
Jordan McCloud run for 1 yd to the JMU 2Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+1
50.3%
Jordan McCloud run for 1 yd to the JMU 3Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
50.6%
Jordan McCloud run for no gain to the JMU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 15FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 5:1450% → 60%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
50.0%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the JMU 16Similar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+8
50.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kyi Wright for 8 yds to the JMU 24Similar
Q3 14:46
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+28
49.1%
Kaelon Black run for 28 yds to the TROY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
46.7%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+12
46.8%
Ty Son Lawton run for 12 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
46.7%
Ty Son Lawton run for 1 yd to the TROY 35Similar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+13
46.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 13 yds to the TROY 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
46.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
46.5%
Troy Penalty, Disconcerting Signals on STRINGER, Jordan enforced (Jordan Stringer) to the TROY 17Similar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+1
46.3%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the TROY 16Similar
Q3 14:46
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+2
46.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 2 yds to the TROY 14Similar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+32
39.8%
Camden Wise 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5941% → 37%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
40.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 11 yds to the TROY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
41.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 3 yds to the TROY 35Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-6
41.8%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Jalen Green for a loss of 6 yards to the TROY 29Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 13
OWN 29
0
39.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
36.5%
Robert Cole punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Josh Sarratt at the JMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4262% → 62%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-7
38.1%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 7 yards to the JMU 15Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 17
OWN 15
0
38.6%
Ty Son Lawton run for no gain to the JMU 15Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 17
OWN 15
+13
39.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Latrele Palmer for 13 yds to the JMU 28Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
37.9%
Ryan Hanson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 27Similar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
38.0%
VIDAL, Kimani rush up the middle for a gain of 14 yards to the TRO41 (REID, Que;HENDRICK, Trent). PENALTY TRO Holding on RUSS, Eli enforced 10 yards from the TRO27 to the TRO17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0137% → 33%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+6
37.3%
Jordan Lovett run for 6 yds to the TROY 23Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+6
37.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 6 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
36.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
33.2%
Robert Cole punt for 60 yds, downed at the JMU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5865% → 67%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-10
34.8%
James Madison Penalty, Offensive Holding (Reggie Brown) to the JMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
34.1%
Ty Son Lawton run for 2 yds to the JMU 27Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
33.9%
Ty Son Lawton run for 2 yds to the JMU 29Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
34.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
32.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:0334% → 61%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
33.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
33.3%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 36Similar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+11
31.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 11 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
33.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 2 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
33.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 5 yds to the JMU 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
34.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+22
31.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 22 yds to the JMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
60.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 24 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1853% → 50%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
47.1%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the JMU 20Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+2
47.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 2 yds to the JMU 22Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 5
OWN 22
0
48.8%
James Madison Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jordan McCloud) to the JMU 16Similar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 11
OWN 16
0
50.3%
Ryan Hanson punt for 39 yds , returns for no gain to the TROY 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:0654% → 52%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
54.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 25 yds to the JMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
59.3%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the JMU 40Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
59.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-4
57.5%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Jalen Green and Jamree Kromah for a loss of 4 yards to the JMU 44Similar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
51.8%
Robert Cole punt for 38 yds, downed at the JMU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1753% → 52%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
47.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 7 yds to the JMU 13Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+2
46.0%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the JMU 15Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 1
OWN 15
0
47.1%
Kaelon Black run for no gain to the JMU 15Similar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 1
OWN 15
-5
49.0%
James Madison Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the JMU 10Similar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 6
OWN 10
0
48.3%
Ryan Hanson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the JMU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24MISSED FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1559% → 49%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
59.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the JMU 41Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+10
59.5%
WATSON, Gunnar pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LEWIS, Chris thrown to the JMU20. PENALTY JMU Holding on LOGAN, Chauncey enforced 10 yards from the JMU41 to the JMU31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-6
62.7%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 6 yards to the JMU 37Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 16
OPP 37
+6
56.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the JMU 31Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
58.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+49
49.2%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:3262% → 73%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
38.2%
Ty Son Lawton run for 6 yds to the JMU 37Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+17
36.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 17 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
34.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 48Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 12
OPP 48
-5
35.5%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the JMU 47Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 17
OWN 47
-2
28.4%
Jordan McCloud run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 45Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 19
OWN 45
+10
28.6%
Kaelon Black run for 10 yds to the TROY 45Similar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
27.5%
Ryan Hanson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:2936% → 23%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
36.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
35.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
33.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+16
32.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 16 yds to the TROY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
37.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 18 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
39.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Landon Parker for 18 yds to the JMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
42.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 5 yds to the JMU 33Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
47.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
39.7%
Troy Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Gunnar Watson) to the JMU 43Similar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
22.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
6.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by MCCLOUD, Jordan at JMU41 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:49
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 24 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+28.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:34
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete
-16.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00
[NHSG] Kneel down by MCCLOUD, Jordan at JMU41 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.
-16.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com