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SELA

SE Louisiana 17 at South Alabama 35

USA
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadSELA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreSELA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameTD+1.7USA 99.8%Marco Lee Jr. run for 13 yds for a TD(Diego Guajardo KICK)AWAY 10 - HOME 35 · Q4 3:28
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:28 · Marco Lee Jr. run for 13 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior+3.7Home team on offense+34.5Score differential+20.4Garbage-time factor+14.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.3Blowout margin+13.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:26: Zachary Clement pass complete to Ivan Drobocky for 4 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK) — SELA win probability +8.8 pts (now 24%) (top driver: SELA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:02: La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Meeks KICK) — USA win probability +5.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:50: La'Damian Webb run for 13 yds for a TD (Jacob Meeks KICK) — USA win probability +6.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:52: Kentrel Bullock run for 8 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +4.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:44: Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 84 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SELA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:20SELA 4th & 22 at USA 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    8.4%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:02USA 4th & 2 at USA 12, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 0:47USA 4th & 2 at USA 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q3 12:00SELA 4th & 8 at SELA 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  5. Q3 7:44SELA 4th & 8 at SELA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 0:55SELA 4th & 11 at USA 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  7. Q4 12:09SELA 4th & 10 at USA 12, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:09USA 4th & 1 at USA 44, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.4%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:28USA 4th & 1 at SELA 13, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SELA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 5:26SELA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:02USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:50USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:52USA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:44USA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:28USA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:41SELA Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SELADrive 1PUNT
17 plays · 36 yds · 6:356% → 8%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
93.8%
PENALTY SLU False Start (Lewis,Darius) 5 yards from SLU30 to SLU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+8
93.8%
Rodeo Graham Jr. run for 8 yds to the SELA 33Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
93.8%
Mike Williams run for 6 yds to the SELA 39Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+8
93.8%
Rodeo Graham Jr. run for 8 yds to the SELA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
93.8%
Eli Sawyer sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the SELA 40Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+15
93.8%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 15 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+3
93.8%
Harlan Dixon run for 3 yds to the USA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
93.8%
Harlan Dixon run for 3 yds to the USA 39Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+1
93.8%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Harlan Dixon for 1 yd to the USA 40Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+18
93.8%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 18 yds to the USA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
93.8%
Rodeo Graham Jr. run for 2 yds to the USA 24Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 12
OPP 24
0
93.8%
Eli Sawyer pass incomplete to Harlan DixonSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 12
OPP 24
-10
93.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Sawyer,Eli pass incomplete short middle to Hugley,Da'shun PENALTY SLU Holding (Bell,Jalen) 10 yards from USA24 to USA34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 22
OPP 34
0
93.8%
Eli Sawyer pass incomplete to Harlan DixonSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 22
OPP 34
0
93.8%
Eli Sawyer pass incomplete to Harlan DixonSimilar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 22
OPP 34
0
92.2%
Austin Dunlap punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1892% → 92%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
92.1%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 8 yds to the USA 12Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 2
OWN 12
0
92.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 2
OWN 12
0
92.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the USA 12Similar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 2
OWN 12
0
91.6%
Jack Martin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Darius Lewis at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 3FUMBLE
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:069% → 10%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
50
+9
91.5%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Harlan Dixon for 9 yds to the USA 41Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+2
91.5%
Harlan Dixon run for 2 yds to the USA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
91.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Sawyer,Eli pass incomplete short middle to Hugley,Da'shun broken up by Voisin,Jaden PENALTY SLU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Hugley,Da'shun) 5 yards from USA39 to USA44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+3
91.6%
Harlan Dixon run for 3 yds to the USA 41Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+12
91.5%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Harlan Dixon for 12 yds to the USA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
91.4%
Eli Sawyer pass incomplete to Darius LewisSimilar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+12
91.4%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 12 yds to the USA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
91.4%
Rodeo Graham Jr. run for 7 yds to the USA 10Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+1
91.4%
Rodeo Graham Jr. run for 1 yd to the USA 9Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+1
91.4%
Rodeo Graham Jr. run for 1 yd to the USA 9Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+9
90.0%
Rodeo Graham Jr. run for 9 yds Rodeo Graham Jr. fumbled, recovered by USA Wesley MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 5:1291% → 88%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
90.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 2 yds to the USA 22Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
90.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 4 yds to the USA 26Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+20
90.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 20 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
90.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 1 yd to the USA 47Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+10
90.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 10 yds to the SELA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
91.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 4 yds to the SELA 39Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+14
90.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 14 yds to the SELA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
90.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bullock,Kentrel rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SLU23 (Sopsher,Rodney) PENALTY USA Holding (Carney,Malachi) 10 yards from SLU25 to SLU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+5
90.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the SELA 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 30
-15
90.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bradley,Carter pass complete short right to Voisin,Devin for 1 yard loss to the SLU31 (Delahoussaye,Blayne) PENALTY USA Pass Interference (Lacy,Caullin) 15 yards from SLU30 to SLU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 30
OPP 45
+7
89.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 7 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 37
OWN 47
0
89.4%
South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 37
OWN 48
0
88.3%
Jack Martin punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 5TD
15 plays · 93 yds · 7:1812% → 24%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+18
88.3%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Jaylon Domingeaux for 18 yds to the SELA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
88.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Dixon,Harlan rush left for 4 yards gain to the SLU29 (Kiser,Trey) PENALTY SLU Holding (Goodly,Ian) 10 yards from SLU25 to SLU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+12
88.3%
Zachary Clement run for 12 yds to the SELA 27Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+20
88.2%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Darius Lewis for 20 yds to the SELA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
87.5%
Harlan Dixon run for 1 yd to the SELA 48Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+5
87.6%
Harlan Dixon run for 5 yds to the USA 47Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+10
85.7%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Mike Williams for 10 yds to the USA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
85.5%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Corey Lorio for 2 yds to the USA 35Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+15
85.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Clement,Zachary pass incomplete deep right to Williams,Mike PENALTY USA Personal Foul (Wilfawn,Quentin) 15 yards from USA35 to USA20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
85.2%
Rodeo Graham Jr. run for no gain to the USA 20Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
85.2%
Zachary Clement run for 2 yds to the USA 22Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+13
85.8%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Xavier Hill for 13 yds to the USA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
85.2%
Zachary Clement run for 5 yds to the USA 4Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
76.4%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Ivan Drobocky for 4 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2379% → 87%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
78.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 6 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+29
79.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 29 yds to the SELA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
80.8%
PENALTY SLU Offside (Mitchell,Tyrik) 5 yards from SLU40 to SLU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+33
81.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 33 yds to the SELA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Meeks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 7INT
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:0817% → 20%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
83.4%
Harlan Dixon run for no gain to the SELA 17Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+14
83.5%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 14 yds to the SELA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
83.1%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Jaylon Domingeaux for 14 yds to the SELA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
80.3%
Zachary Clement pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8END OF HALF
10 plays · 41 yds · 1:4985% → 83%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
84.7%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
84.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 6 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+2
84.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+6
83.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 6 yds to the SELA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-15
84.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bradley,Carter pass incomplete deep middle to Sefcik,Lincoln PENALTY USA Face Mask (McCulloch,Josh) 15 yards from SLU48 to USA37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 25
OWN 37
0
83.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamaal PritchettSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 25
OWN 37
+8
82.9%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 8 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 45
+34
82.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 34 yds to the SELA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:4683% → 82%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
82.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 10 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
83.1%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
82.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamaal PritchettSimilar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
81.5%
Carter Bradley pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0920% → 20%
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-6
79.7%
Zachary Clement sacked by Maurice Strong Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the SELA 13Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 16
OWN 13
+1
80.0%
Harlan Dixon run for 1 yd to the SELA 12Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 17
OWN 12
+9
80.8%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Harlan Dixon for 9 yds to the SELA 21Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
80.3%
Austin Dunlap punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 3:1081% → 90%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
80.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 17 yds to the USA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
82.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+17
82.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 17 yds to the SELA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
83.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the SELA 32Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+9
83.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 9 yds to the SELA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
83.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 10 yds to the SELA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
89.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 13 yds for a TD (Jacob Meeks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0613% → 13%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.6%
Eli Sawyer pass incomplete to Darius LewisSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.7%
Rodeo Graham Jr. run for 2 yds to the SELA 27Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
87.3%
Eli Sawyer pass incomplete to Jacob LoganSimilar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
87.4%
Austin Dunlap punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:5289% → 95%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
89.4%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 4 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+13
89.7%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 13 yds to the SELA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
89.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 19 yds to the SELA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
90.1%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 1 yd to the SELA 24Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+2
90.1%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 2 yds to the SELA 22Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+8
89.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 8 yds to the SELA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
90.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the SELA 16Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+8
90.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 8 yds to the SELA 8Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
94.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 8 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:577% → 7%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.5%
Zachary Clement run for 2 yds to the SELA 27Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
93.4%
Zachary Clement pass incomplete to Mike WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
93.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Clement,Zachary pass incomplete short right to Hill,Xavier PENALTY USA Targeting (Jacobs,Khalil) 15 yards from SLU27 to SLU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
92.8%
Harlan Dixon run for 3 yds to the SELA 45Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+16
92.6%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 16 yds to the USA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
92.4%
Harlan Dixon run for 1 yd to the USA 40Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 11
OPP 40
0
92.7%
Zachary Clement pass incomplete to Xavier HillSimilar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 11
OPP 40
0
92.8%
Zachary Clement pass incomplete to Harlan DixonSimilar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
93.4%
Austin Dunlap punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the USA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15TD
4 plays · 89 yds · 1:1196% → 99%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
95.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the USA 13Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+3
95.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 3 yds to the USA 16Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+84
98.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 84 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 16FG
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:281% → 3%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+76
98.8%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Da'shun Hugley for 76 yds to the USA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
98.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Graham Jr.,Rodeo rush left for 0 yards to the USA12 (Robinson,Marquise), out of bounds PENALTY SLU Holding (Logan,Jacob) 10 yards from USA12 to USA22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 20
OPP 22
+9
98.6%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Darius Lewis for 9 yds to the USA 13Similar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
98.6%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:37
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+1
98.8%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Darius Lewis for 1 yd to the USA 12Similar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
97.3%
Riley Callaghan 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 8:4198% → 100%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 10 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
98.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bullock,Kentrel rush left for 4 yards loss to the USA31 (Williams,Arlen) PENALTY USA Holding (Robinson,James) 10 yards from USA35 to USA25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+14
97.9%
PJ Martin run for 14 yds to the USA 39Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
98.1%
PJ Martin run for 3 yds to the USA 42Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
98.1%
PJ Martin run for 2 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+8
98.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 8 yds to the SELA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
98.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the SELA 46Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+6
98.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 6 yds to the SELA 40Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+8
98.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 8 yds to the SELA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
98.1%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 5 yds to the SELA 27Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+5
98.1%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 5 yds to the SELA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
98.1%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 2 yds to the SELA 20Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+5
98.1%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 5 yds to the SELA 15Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+2
98.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the SELA 13Similar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+13
99.8%
Marco Lee Jr. run for 13 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 18TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:370% → 2%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
99.8%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Mike Williams for 21 yds to the SELA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
99.8%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Mike Williams for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 1
50
+5
99.7%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Corey Lorio for 5 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
99.7%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Darius Lewis for 6 yds to the USA 39Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+5
99.7%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Ivan Drobocky for 5 yds to the USA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.7%
Zachary Clement pass incomplete to Mike WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+33
99.7%
Zachary Clement pass complete to Harlan Dixon for 33 yds to the USA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.9%
Harlan Dixon run for 1 yd for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Todd Justice for 3 yds to the USA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:26
Zachary Clement pass complete to Ivan Drobocky for 4 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
-8.8
TD · Q3 8:50
La'Damian Webb run for 13 yds for a TD (Jacob Meeks KICK)
+6.4
TD · Q2 4:02
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Meeks KICK)
+5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com