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SFA

Stephen F. Austin 30 at Troy 48

TROY
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadSFA aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreSFA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:52 · Jarris Williams run for 25 yds to the SFA 30 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:47: Jerrell Wimbley run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Campos KICK) — SFA win probability +2.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: SFA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:38: Amad Murray 37 Yd Fumble Return (Chris Campos Kick) — SFA win probability +2.4 pts (now 8%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:36: Chris Campos 48 yd FG GOOD — SFA win probability +2.7 pts (now 13%) (top driver: SFA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:12: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 19 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +5.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:13: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 13 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +3.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3SFA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 6:43SFA 4th & 5 at TROY 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:37SFA 4th & 1 at SFA 47, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:20TROY 4th & 14 at TROY 49, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:42SFA 4th & 2 at SFA 28, down 18
    Close callPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:34TROY 4th & 6 at SFA 12, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    93.2%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:36SFA 4th & 4 at TROY 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:23SFA 4th & 7 at SFA 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:37TROY 4th & 3 at SFA 18, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.4%−0.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−3.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:31SFA 4th & 10 at SFA 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:59SFA 4th & 14 at TROY 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:32SFA 4th & 9 at TROY 46, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    2.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SFA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:28TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:05TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:05TROY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:47SFA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:38SFA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:12TROY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:13TROY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:45TROY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:52SFA Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:3296% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
95.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the SFA 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+4
95.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the SFA 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+10
95.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 10 yds to the SFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
95.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 5 yds to the SFA 10Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+10
95.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 10 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 2INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-45
95.3%
Reddy Steward 45 Yd Interception Return (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 3FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 5:225% → 6%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.3%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 6 yds to the SFA 31Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
95.3%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Ty Love for 5 yds to the SFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.3%
Brian Mauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
95.3%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 3 yds to the SFA 39Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+7
95.1%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Keshon Williams for 7 yds to the SFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
95.1%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 12 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
95.0%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Lawton Rikel for 8 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+3
95.0%
Anthony Williams run for 3 yds to the TROY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
95.0%
Anthony Williams run for 2 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+3
95.0%
Anthony Williams run for 3 yds to the TROY 26Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
95.0%
Brian Mauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+36
94.3%
Chris Campos 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:3895% → 95%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+59
94.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 59 yds to the SFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
95.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 16 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:285% → 5%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
95.3%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Josh Thompson for 13 yds to the SFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
95.2%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 1 yd to the SFA 39Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+2
95.2%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Keshon Williams for 2 yds to the SFA 41Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+6
95.2%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Josh Thompson for 6 yds to the SFA 47Similar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
95.3%
Jerrell Wimbley run for no gain to the SFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1195% → 95%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
95.4%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFA 49Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-2
95.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Asa Martin for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 49Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 14
OWN 49
0
95.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
95.3%
Robert Cole punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:385% → 5%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
95.4%
Anthony Williams run for 1 yd to the SFA 21Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
95.4%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Khi'Yon Wafer for 8 yds to the SFA 29Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-1
95.3%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Kylon Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the SFA 28Similar
Q1 0:42
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
95.4%
Max Quick punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8FG
5 plays · 59 yds · 1:2695% → 97%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+55
95.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 55 yds to the SFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
95.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the SFA 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
95.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+3
95.4%
Gunnar Watson run for 3 yds to the SFA 12Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
96.7%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 9TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:474% → 7%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
96.4%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Khi'Yon Wafer for 16 yds to the SFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
96.3%
Brian Mauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
96.3%
Troy Penalty, Personal Foul (Javon Solomon) to the TROY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
96.1%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 12 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
96.1%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 4 yds to the TROY 32Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+15
95.9%
MAUER, Brian pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WAFER, Khi'yon thrown to the TRO1. PENALTY TRO Pass Interference on STEWARD, Reddy enforced 15 yards to the TRO17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
95.9%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Khi'Yon Wafer for no gain to the TROY 17Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
96.4%
Anthony Williams run for 2 yds to the TROY 15Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+10
96.5%
Anthony Williams run for 10 yds to the TROY 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
96.4%
Troy Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Reddy Steward) to the TROY 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.5%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Campos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:0995% → 92%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
94.5%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 23Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
94.4%
Stephen F. Austin Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TROY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
94.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+37
92.3%
Amad Murray 37 Yd Fumble Return (Chris Campos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11FUMBLE
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:3692% → 92%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
92.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Damien Taylor for no gain to the TROY 19Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
91.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+17
91.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 17 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
92.2%
Troy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TROY 31Similar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+13
92.0%
Asa Martin run for 13 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
92.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+5
92.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
92.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 12 yds to the SFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
92.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the SFA 33Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+1
92.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the SFA 32Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-3
91.6%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFA 35 Kimani Vidal fumbled, recovered by SFA Luke WatsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 12FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:269% → 13%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
90.7%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Lawton Rikel for 8 yds to the SFA 43Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-5
90.1%
Stephen F. Austin Penalty, False Start (Anthony Williams) to the SFA 38Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
90.5%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 2 yds to the SFA 40Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+7
90.6%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 7 yds to the SFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
90.1%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Josh Thompson for 16 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
89.9%
Brian Mauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
89.9%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Ty Love for 6 yds to the TROY 31Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
89.8%
Brian Mauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+48
87.1%
Chris Campos 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:1788% → 94%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
87.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 12 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+44
88.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 44 yds to the SFA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
93.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 19 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
93.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by MAUER, Brian at SFA20 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:378% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.4%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 1 yd to the SFA 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
92.4%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 2 yds to the SFA 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
92.7%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Jerrell Wimbley for 11 yds to the SFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
92.0%
Brian Mauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
92.1%
Brian Mauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+3
92.4%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Kylon Harris for 3 yds to the SFA 42Similar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
92.3%
Max Quick punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 4:4692% → 95%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
92.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the TROY 18Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+4
92.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 22Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+43
92.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 43 yds to the SFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+1
93.0%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the SFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
93.0%
Asa Martin run for 8 yds to the SFA 17Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 2
OPP 17
0
93.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
93.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 9 yds to the SFA 26Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 2
OPP 17
-1
92.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jordan Lovett for a loss of 1 yard to the SFA 18Similar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
94.7%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:066% → 6%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
93.7%
Anthony Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFA 21 Anthony Williams fumbled, recovered by SFASimilar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-2
93.8%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Khi'Yon Wafer for a loss of 2 yards to the SFA 19Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+6
93.9%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Jerrell Wimbley for 6 yds to the SFA 25Similar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
94.0%
Max Quick punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 3:1895% → 99%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
94.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the TROY 46Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+2
95.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
95.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the SFA 48Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+32
95.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 32 yds to the SFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
95.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
95.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the SFA 13Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
98.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 13 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 19PUNT
3 plays · 1 yds · 2:132% → 1%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
98.4%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 1 yd to the SFA 28Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 9
OWN 28
-3
98.5%
Khi'Yon Wafer run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFA 25Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+3
98.9%
Brian Mauer run for 3 yds to the SFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 20FG
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:521% → 3%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
98.7%
Brian Mauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
98.7%
Brian Mauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-4
98.8%
Jerrell Wimbley run for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 32Similar
Q4 13:59
4TH & 14
OPP 32
+49
97.3%
Chris Campos 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21INT
6 plays · 25 yds · 3:4098% → 98%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
98.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+2
98.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
98.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the TROY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
98.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
98.1%
Jarris Williams run for no gain to the TROY 44Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
98.2%
Gunnar Watson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:403% → 2%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
97.5%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 1 yd to the TROY 46Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
97.5%
Brian Mauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
97.5%
Brian Mauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:32
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
97.6%
Brian Mauer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 4:4799% → 100%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
98.5%
Jordan Lovett run for 3 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
98.5%
Jordan Lovett run for 6 yds to the SFA 45Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
98.5%
Jordan Lovett run for 3 yds to the SFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
98.5%
Jordan Lovett run for 4 yds to the SFA 38Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+3
98.5%
Jordan Lovett run for 3 yds to the SFA 35Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+6
98.5%
Jordan Lovett run for 6 yds to the SFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+27
98.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Landon Parker for 27 yds to the SFA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Jarris Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 24TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:530% → 2%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+24
99.8%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Lawton Rikel for 24 yds to the TROY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
99.7%
Anthony Williams run for 20 yds to the TROY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
99.7%
Troy Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the TROY 18Similar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 5
OPP 18
+18
98.0%
Anthony Williams run for 18 yds for a TD (Chris Campos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 45 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.0%
Jarris Williams run for 12 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
99.1%
Jarris Williams run for 8 yds to the TROY 45Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+25
99.1%
Jarris Williams run for 25 yds to the SFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:12
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Ethan Conner for 19 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q3 2:13
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 13 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q2 8:47
Jerrell Wimbley run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Campos KICK)
-2.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com