Try the model
ALCN

Alcorn State 14 at Southern Miss 40

USM
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadALCN aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreALCN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Jacorian Sewell run for 1 yd to the ALCN 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:50: Tyler Macon run for 75 yds for a TD (Noah Kiani KICK) — ALCN win probability +1.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: ALCN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:56: Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +3.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:30: Andrew Stein 23 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +1.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:31: Billy Wiles pass complete to Tyquan Henderson for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:08: Niko Duffey run for 15 yds for a TD (Noah Kiani KICK) — ALCN win probability +1.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: ALCN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ALCN made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 11:07ALCN 4th & 2 at ALCN 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:03USM 4th & 6 at ALCN 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00USM 4th & 4 at ALCN 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.1%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:24USM 4th & 1 at ALCN 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.6%−0.6
    77% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:47ALCN 4th & 4 at ALCN 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:19USM 4th & 2 at USM 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:00ALCN 4th & 6 at ALCN 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:30USM 4th & 6 at ALCN 6, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:44ALCN 4th & 10 at ALCN 8, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:35USM 4th & 28 at ALCN 35, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:33ALCN 4th & 4 at USM 49, down 23
    Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:53ALCN 4th & 2 at ALCN 43, down 30
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:30USM 4th & 13 at USM 27, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:26USM 4th & 8 at ALCN 24, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:59ALCN 4th & 7 at ALCN 25, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:59USM 4th & 4 at USM 40, up 26
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ALCN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:53USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:34USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:50ALCN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:56USM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:31USM Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:08ALCN Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALCNDrive 1INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:427% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.4%
Jarveon Howard run for 1 yd to the ALCN 26Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
93.2%
Tyler Macon pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:2593% → 93%
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
93.2%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 4 yds to the ALCN 49Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+18
93.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 18 yds to the ALCN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
93.2%
WILES, Billy pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for MIMS, Tiaquelin thrown to the ASU0. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on SUMMEROUR, Edwin enforced 15 yards to the ASU16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
93.2%
WILES, Billy pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for MIMS, Tiaquelin thrown to the ASU0. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on SUMMEROUR, Edwin enforced 15 yards to the ASU16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
93.2%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 16 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:467% → 7%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.1%
Jarveon Howard run for 6 yds to the ALCN 31Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
93.0%
Tyler Macon run for 2 yds to the ALCN 33Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
92.9%
Tyler Macon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
92.8%
Caleb Darbone punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:3393% → 94%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
92.9%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
92.9%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 5 yds to the USM 42Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+15
92.9%
Alcorn State Penalty, Roughing the Passer on BAILEY, Malachi enforced (Malachi Bailey) to the ALCN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
93.0%
GORE, Frank rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the ASU31 (SMITH, Andrew). PENALTY USM Holding on SCOTT, Gerquan enforced 10 yards from the ASU37 to the ASU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 20
OPP 47
0
92.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the ALCN 47Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 20
OPP 47
+12
92.9%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 12 yds to the ALCN 35Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+26
93.0%
Tiaquelin Mims run for 26 yds to the ALCN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
93.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 5INT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:027% → 7%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
93.3%
Tyler Macon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
93.3%
Jarveon Howard run for no gain to the ALCN 9Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
93.3%
Alcorn State Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the ALCN 5Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 14
OWN 5
0
93.4%
Tyler Macon pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2394% → 94%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
93.8%
Billy Wiles run for 1 yd to the ALCN 24Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
93.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the ALCN 24Similar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
93.8%
Tiaquelin Mims run for 4 yds to the ALCN 8Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
93.8%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
93.6%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
94.0%
Andrew Stein 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 7TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
92.4%
Tyler Macon run for 75 yds for a TD (Noah Kiani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 12:1792% → 95%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.1%
Billy Wiles run for no gain to the USM 35Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+25
92.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 25 yds to the ALCN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
92.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the ALCN 40Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
92.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the ALCN 37Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+3
92.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the ALCN 34Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+6
91.5%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 6 yds to the ALCN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
91.9%
Jakarius Caston run for 9 yds to the ALCN 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 19
-5
91.9%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ALCN 24Similar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+3
91.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the ALCN 21Similar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+4
91.3%
run for 4 yds to the ALCN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
91.7%
Billy Wiles run for 3 yds to the ALCN 4Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
91.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the ALCN 2 TEAM fumbled, recovered by USMSimilar
Q2 10:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+2
95.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the ALCN 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:016% → 6%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.0%
Jarveon Howard run for 3 yds to the ALCN 28Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
93.9%
Jarveon Howard run for 1 yd to the ALCN 29Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
94.0%
Tyler Macon run for 2 yds to the ALCN 31Similar
Q2 8:47
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
94.1%
Caleb Darbone punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:2895% → 95%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
95.2%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 22Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+6
95.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 6 yds to the USM 28Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+3
95.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 3 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
94.8%
Bryce Lofton punt for 48 yds, downed at the ALCN 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:196% → 6%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
93.9%
Tyler Macon run for 4 yds to the ALCN 25Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
93.8%
Javonta Leatherwood run for no gain to the ALCN 25Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Tyler Macon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
94.0%
Caleb Darbone punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:2195% → 97%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
95.2%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the USM 32Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
95.2%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the USM 32Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+38
95.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 38 yds to the ALCN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
95.5%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Davis Dalton for 22 yds to the ALCN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
0
96.1%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
95.8%
CLARK, Rodrigues rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the ASU0, TOUCHDOWN USM, score nullified by penalty, clock 02:10 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY USM Holding on MIDDLETON, James enforced 10 yards from the ASU8 to the ASU18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
-3
95.7%
Antavious Willis run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALCN 21Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
+15
95.4%
Billy Wiles run for 15 yds to the ALCN 6Similar
Q2 0:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
97.1%
Andrew Stein 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:293% → 3%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
96.8%
Jarveon Howard run for 12 yds to the ALCN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
96.6%
Jarveon Howard run for 1 yd to the ALCN 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14INT
3 plays · 57 yds · 1:1697% → 98%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
97.3%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 30 yds to the ALCN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+27
97.5%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 27 yds to the ALCN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
97.5%
Billy Wiles pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:533% → 3%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
97.4%
Jarveon Howard run for no gain to the ALCN 8Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
97.4%
Aaron Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
97.1%
Aaron Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:44
4TH & 10
OWN 8
0
97.1%
Caleb Darbone punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16FG
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:5798% → 98%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
97.7%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+18
97.6%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 18 yds to the ALCN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
97.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALCN 19Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 12
OPP 19
0
97.6%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 12
OPP 19
-10
97.6%
WILES, Billy pass short up the middle complete for 5 yards to GORE, Frank caught at the ASU17 and advanced to the ASU14 (LEACHMAN, Keenan). PENALTY USM Illegal Block in the Back on CASTON, Jakarius enforced 10 yards from the ASU19 to the ASU29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 22
OPP 29
-6
97.6%
Billy Wiles sacked by Kayvon Henderson and Tyler Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the ALCN 35Similar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 28
OPP 35
+52
97.5%
Andrew Stein 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:533% → 2%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
97.4%
Jarveon Howard run for no gain to the ALCN 45Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
97.4%
Aaron Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+6
97.8%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Niko Duffey for 6 yds to the USM 49Similar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
97.8%
Kenny Lee Pham punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:3998% → 100%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+35
97.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for 35 yds to the ALCN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
98.2%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 17 yds to the ALCN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
98.2%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 9 yds to the ALCN 18Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+4
98.2%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Davis Dalton for 4 yds to the ALCN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
98.2%
Chandler Pittman run for 6 yds to the ALCN 8Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 4
OPP 8
0
98.6%
Southern Miss Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Billy Wiles) to the ALCN 17Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 14
OPP 18
+15
98.5%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 15 yds to the ALCN 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tyquan Henderson for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:300% → 0%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.6%
Niko Duffey run for 3 yds to the ALCN 25Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Javonta Leatherwood run for 2 yds to the ALCN 27Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+8
99.6%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Da'Mare Franklin for 8 yds to the ALCN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.6%
Javonta Leatherwood run for 2 yds to the ALCN 37Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
99.6%
Aaron Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+6
99.8%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Niko Duffey for 6 yds to the ALCN 43Similar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Kenny Lee Pham punt for 37 yds, downed at the USM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
99.8%
Holman Edwards pass complete to Davis Dalton for 10 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the USM 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Antavious Willis run for no gain to the USM 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-8
99.8%
Holman Edwards sacked by Kamaurja Kenney and Sheldon Russ for a loss of 8 yards to the USM 27Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Bryce Lofton punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 21TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 4:220% → 1%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
99.9%
Jarveon Howard run for 3 yds to the ALCN 31Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-2
99.9%
Jarveon Howard run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALCN 29Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+26
99.9%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Malik Rodgers for 26 yds to the USM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
99.9%
Niko Duffey run for 3 yds to the USM 42Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+5
99.9%
Niko Duffey run for 5 yds to the USM 37Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+4
99.8%
Jarveon Howard run for 4 yds to the USM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
99.9%
Jarveon Howard run for 18 yds to the USM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
98.8%
Niko Duffey run for 15 yds for a TD (Noah Kiani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 4:36100% → 100%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.6%
Antavious Willis run for 12 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
99.6%
Antavious Willis run for 7 yds to the USM 44Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+3
99.6%
Antavious Willis run for 3 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
99.6%
EDWARDS, Holman pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for HENDERSON, Tyquan thrown to the ASU35. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on ALLEN, Aaron enforced 15 yards to the ASU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
99.6%
Holman Edwards pass complete to Tyquan Henderson for 12 yds to the ALCN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
99.6%
Holman Edwards pass complete to Zay Franks for 7 yds to the ALCN 19Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-7
99.6%
Holman Edwards sacked by Sheldon Russ for a loss of 7 yards to the ALCN 26Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+2
99.6%
Holman Edwards run for 2 yds to the ALCN 24Similar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
99.9%
Andrew Stein 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
99.9%
Brandon Rogers run for 2 yds to the ALCN 24Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+3
99.9%
Brandon Rogers run for 3 yds to the ALCN 27Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-2
99.9%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Javonta Leatherwood for a loss of 2 yards to the ALCN 25Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Kenny Lee Pham punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.9%
JQ Gray run for 2 yds to the USM 36Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+1
99.9%
JQ Gray run for 1 yd to the USM 37Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
JQ Gray run for 3 yds to the USM 40Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Bryce Lofton punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:500% → 0%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.9%
Jacorian Sewell run for 2 yds to the ALCN 28Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+14
99.9%
Jacorian Sewell run for 14 yds to the ALCN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
99.9%
Jacorian Sewell run for 1 yd to the ALCN 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:56
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)
+3.5
FG · Q2 0:30
Andrew Stein 23 yd FG GOOD
+1.7
TD · Q1 3:50
Tyler Macon run for 75 yds for a TD (Noah Kiani KICK)
-1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com