Try the model
UALB

UAlbany 17 at Marshall 21

MRSH
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadUALB aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreUALB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-2.2MRSH 72.8%John Opalko 46 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q2 0:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:06 · John Opalko 46 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Pregame prior+25.0Home team on offense−4.9Score differential−2.1Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:35: Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Jackson Parker for 19 yds for a TD (John Opalko KICK) — UALB win probability +18.3 pts (now 47%) (top driver: UALB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:50: Cam Fancher pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 19 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +13.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 3:31: Reese Poffenbarger run for 54 yds for a TD (John Opalko KICK) — UALB win probability +21.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UALB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:22: Rasheen Ali run for 13 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +23.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. TD · Q4 12:53: Rasheen Ali run for 30 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +14.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UALB made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 13:34MRSH 4th & 11 at MRSH 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:26UALB 4th & 21 at UALB 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:49MRSH 4th & 8 at MRSH 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:17UALB 4th & 10 at UALB 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:12MRSH 4th & 1 at UALB 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.9%−0.3
    84% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:51UALB 4th & 20 at MRSH 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    13.8%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:57MRSH 4th & 2 at MRSH 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:31UALB 4th & 4 at UALB 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:48MRSH 4th & 7 at UALB 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    82.4%−0.2
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:27UALB 4th & 3 at UALB 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:09MRSH 4th & 2 at MRSH 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    80.5%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:06UALB 4th & 10 at MRSH 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:31UALB 4th & 1 at UALB 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.4%−3.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:23UALB 4th & 23 at UALB 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−8.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:53MRSH 4th & 1 at UALB 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    56.8%−4.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−7.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:37UALB 4th & 8 at UALB 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:07UALB 4th & 3 at MRSH 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    26.2%−1.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−12.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:33MRSH 4th & 10 at UALB 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−2.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−12.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:33UALB 4th & 10 at UALB 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.1%−1.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:37UALB 4th & 16 at MRSH 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.9%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UALB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 9:35UALB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:50MRSH Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:31UALB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:22MRSH Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:53MRSH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:2292% → 91%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+63
91.7%
Rasheen Ali run for 73 yds for a 1ST down Marshall Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MRSH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
91.7%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
91.7%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 9 yds to the ALB 43Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 43
-10
91.7%
Marshall Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MRSH 47Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 11
OWN 47
0
91.7%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
91.3%
John McConnell punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 5:089% → 10%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
91.3%
Faysal Aden run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALB 8Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+15
91.3%
Marshall Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (J.J. Roberts) to the ALB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
91.3%
Faysal Aden run for no gain to the ALB 27Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
91.3%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Faysal Aden for no gain to the ALB 27Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+12
91.3%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Faysal Aden for 12 yds to the ALB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
91.3%
Reese Poffenbarger run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALB 36 Reese Poffenbarger fumbled, recovered by ALB Reese PoffenbargerSimilar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 13
OWN 36
-9
91.3%
Reese Poffenbarger sacked by TyQaze Leggs and Eli Neal for a loss of 9 yards to the ALB 27Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 22
OWN 27
+1
91.3%
Nate Larkins run for 1 yd to the ALB 28Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 21
OWN 28
0
90.0%
Tyler Pastula punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3790% → 89%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
89.8%
Cam Fancher pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 4 yds to the MRSH 26Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-4
89.8%
Cam Fancher run for a loss of 4 yards to the MRSH 22Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+2
89.7%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 2 yds TEAM fumbled, recovered by MRSHSimilar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
89.0%
John McConnell punt for 61 yds , Jackson Parker returns for no gain to the ALB 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3211% → 11%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
89.4%
Reese Poffenbarger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+1
89.4%
Nate Larkins run for 1 yd to the ALB 8Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 9
OWN 8
-1
89.5%
Reese Poffenbarger sacked by Isaiah Gibson Sr. and Brandon McElroy for a loss of 1 yard to the ALB 7Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 10
OWN 7
0
89.0%
Tyler Pastula punt for 45 yds, downed at the MRSH 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:4489% → 88%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
89.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 18 yds to the ALB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
89.5%
Marshall Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ALB 39Similar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+5
89.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 5 yds to the ALB 34Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+11
89.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 11 yds to the ALB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
89.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Cade Conley for 7 yds to the ALB 16Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+1
89.5%
Rasheen Ali run for 1 yd to the ALB 15Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
89.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 1 yd to the ALB 14Similar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 1
OPP 14
0
88.0%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 6MISSED FG
15 plays · 66 yds · 7:2113% → 16%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
87.3%
Reese Poffenbarger run for 14 yds to the ALB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
87.2%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Brevin Easton for 7 yds to the ALB 35Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+2
86.9%
Reese Poffenbarger run for 2 yds to the ALB 37Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+8
86.0%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Jackson Parker for 8 yds to the ALB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
85.7%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Jackson Parker for 3 yds to the ALB 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+14
85.7%
Faysal Aden run for 14 yds to the MRSH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
85.5%
Faysal Aden run for 2 yds to the MRSH 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+14
85.5%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Brevin Easton for 14 yds to the MRSH 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
85.1%
Nate Larkins run for 2 yds to the MRSH 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+12
85.1%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Marqeese Dietz for 12 yds to the MRSH 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
82.6%
Reese Poffenbarger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
82.6%
Reese Poffenbarger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-12
83.1%
Reese Poffenbarger sacked by Sam Burton for a loss of 12 yards to the MRSH 20Similar
Q2 9:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+37
84.1%
John Opalko 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:5485% → 83%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
84.8%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Talik Keaton for 6 yds to the MRSH 26Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
85.0%
Rasheen Ali run for 5 yds to the MRSH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
85.0%
Rasheen Ali run for 6 yds to the MRSH 37Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
85.5%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+2
84.9%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the MRSH 39Similar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
83.4%
John McConnell punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jackson Parker at the ALB 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2618% → 18%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
82.3%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Brevin Easton for 7 yds to the ALB 22Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 3
OWN 22
0
81.9%
Reese Poffenbarger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 3
OWN 22
-1
82.6%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Brevin Easton for a loss of 1 yard to the ALB 21Similar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
82.5%
Tyler Pastula punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the MRSH 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:4383% → 83%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
83.2%
Rasheen Ali run for 1 yd to the MRSH 36Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+12
83.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 12 yds to the MRSH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
84.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Cade Conley for 14 yds to the ALB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
84.6%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the ALB 35Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
84.0%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
83.8%
Rasheen Ali run for no gain to the ALB 35Similar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
82.5%
John McConnell punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:2120% → 20%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.2%
Reese Poffenbarger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
80.4%
POFFENBARGER, Reese pass short to the left incomplete dropped by EASTON, Brevin thrown to the UA25; QB hurried by PORTER, Owen. PENALTY Before the snap, UA Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UA20 to the UA15. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+4
80.5%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Caden Burti for 4 yds to the ALB 19Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+8
80.3%
Reese Poffenbarger run for 8 yds to the ALB 27Similar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
80.5%
Tyler Pastula punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:1882% → 82%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
82.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 14 yds to the MRSH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
82.6%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Bryan Robinson for 12 yds to the MRSH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
83.6%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 4 yds to the MRSH 44Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
83.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Cade Conley for 4 yds to the MRSH 48Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
83.4%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+1
82.1%
Rasheen Ali run for 1 yd to the MRSH 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 12FG
10 plays · 20 yds · 1:0324% → 27%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
75.8%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Caden Burti for 17 yds to the MRSH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
74.2%
POFFENBARGER, Reese pass deep to the right incomplete intended for PARKER, Jackson broken up by MOTEN, Josh at the MAR0; QB hurried by BURTON, Sam. PENALTY UA Holding on LATULIPPE, Nolan enforced 10 yards from the MAR32 to the MAR42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 20
OPP 42
-1
76.4%
Reese Poffenbarger sacked by Elijah Alston for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 43Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 21
OPP 43
+14
76.8%
POFFENBARGER, Reese pass to the left incomplete intended for EASTON, Brevin thrown to the MAR30. PENALTY MAR Pass Interference on MOTEN, Josh enforced at the spot of the foul for 14 yards to the MAR29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
73.2%
Nate Larkins run for no gain to the MRSH 29Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
73.9%
Reese Poffenbarger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
75.0%
Reese Poffenbarger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
72.8%
John Opalko 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
76.9%
Cam Fancher run for 5 yds to the MRSH 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:2526% → 47%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.1%
Faysal Aden run for no gain to the ALB 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
74.3%
Reese Poffenbarger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
75.1%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Jackson Parker for 12 yds to the ALB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
73.3%
Reese Poffenbarger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
73.6%
Nate Larkins run for 3 yds to the ALB 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+15
73.4%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Caden Burti for 15 yds to the MRSH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
72.1%
Nate Larkins run for 4 yds to the MRSH 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+9
72.0%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Jackson Parker for 9 yds to the MRSH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
71.4%
Griffin Woodell run for 9 yds to the MRSH 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+4
71.1%
Griffin Woodell run for 4 yds to the MRSH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
52.9%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Jackson Parker for 19 yds for a TD (John Opalko KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:3855% → 73%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
55.1%
Cam Fancher run for 5 yds to the MRSH 40Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
56.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 4 yds to the MRSH 44Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+10
56.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 10 yds to the ALB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
57.8%
Cam Fancher pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 8 yds to the ALB 38Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+6
57.9%
Cam Fancher run for 6 yds to the ALB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
59.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Cade Conley for 9 yds to the ALB 23Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+4
59.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 4 yds to the ALB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
72.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 19 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 3:1934% → 57%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.7%
Nate Larkins run for 2 yds to the ALB 27Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
65.5%
Nate Larkins run for 10 yds to the ALB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
64.6%
Reese Poffenbarger run for 6 yds to the ALB 43Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
63.3%
Nate Larkins run for 3 yds to the ALB 46Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
63.6%
Nate Larkins run for no gain to the ALB 46Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+54
42.6%
Reese Poffenbarger run for 54 yds for a TD (John Opalko KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 1:0944% → 70%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
43.6%
Rasheen Ali run for 25 yds to the ALB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+27
46.8%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Cade Conley for 27 yds to the ALB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
69.8%
Rasheen Ali run for 13 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:5940% → 39%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
60.0%
UAlbany Penalty, Offensive Holding (Julian Hicks) to the ALB 17Similar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 18
OWN 17
+7
60.3%
Nate Larkins run for 7 yds to the ALB 24Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
60.4%
Reese Poffenbarger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-12
61.9%
Reese Poffenbarger sacked by Sam Burton for a loss of 12 yards to the ALB 12Similar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
61.4%
Tyler Pastula punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:3065% → 80%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
64.6%
Cam Fancher run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
50
+11
65.2%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 11 yds to the ALB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
65.6%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 6 yds to the ALB 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+1
67.7%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Cade Conley for 1 yd to the ALB 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
65.2%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the ALB 30Similar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+30
80.1%
Rasheen Ali run for 30 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:1623% → 22%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.8%
Nate Larkins run for no gain to the ALB 25Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
77.0%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Griffin Woodell for no gain to the ALB 25Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.2%
Reese Poffenbarger run for 2 yds to the ALB 27Similar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
78.2%
Tyler Pastula punt for 44 yds, downed at the MRSH 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:0778% → 77%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
78.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 6 yds to the MRSH 35Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-3
79.7%
Rasheen Ali run for a loss of 3 yards to the MRSH 32Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
77.1%
Cam Fancher pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:2330% → 29%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
70.0%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Carter Moses for 13 yds to the MRSH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
68.5%
Reese Poffenbarger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
68.6%
Nate Larkins run for 6 yds to the MRSH 27Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+1
69.7%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Brevin Easton for 1 yd to the MRSH 26Similar
Q4 7:07
4TH & 3
OPP 26
0
71.5%
Reese Poffenbarger pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23MISSED FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 4:3582% → 90%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
81.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 14 yds to the MRSH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
83.6%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 16 yds to the ALB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
84.7%
Rasheen Ali run for 7 yds to the ALB 37Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+17
84.7%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Cade Conley for 17 yds to the ALB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
85.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the ALB 18Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-6
85.4%
Ethan Payne run for a loss of 6 yards to the ALB 24Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
87.4%
Rece Verhoff 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 14
OPP 24
+4
90.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Bryan Robinson for 4 yds to the ALB 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 24DOWNS
13 plays · 27 yds · 1:5619% → 4%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.8%
Reese Poffenbarger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
81.0%
Reese Poffenbarger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
82.6%
Reese Poffenbarger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+15
83.3%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Brevin Easton for 15 yds to the ALB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
79.5%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Griffin Woodell for 9 yds to the ALB 44Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+13
75.8%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Julian Hicks for 13 yds to the MRSH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
75.6%
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Caden Burti for 5 yds to the MRSH 38Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
73.3%
Reese Poffenbarger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-11
75.8%
Reese Poffenbarger sacked by Sam Burton and TyQaze Leggs for a loss of 11 yards to the MRSH 49Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 16
OPP 49
-4
87.3%
Reese Poffenbarger sacked by Owen Porter for a loss of 4 yards to the ALB 47Similar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
95.8%
UAlbany Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the ALB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
96.3%
[NH] Kneel down by FANCHER, Cam at UA34 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:22
Rasheen Ali run for 13 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
+23
TD · Q3 3:31
Reese Poffenbarger run for 54 yds for a TD (John Opalko KICK)
-21
TD · Q3 9:35
Reese Poffenbarger pass complete to Jackson Parker for 19 yds for a TD (John Opalko KICK)
-18.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com